Health Coronavirus 2020 / Worldwide (Stats live update in OP) Part 6

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Big Cox 88

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I mean your math is so far from reality
You're not the first person I've met that decided novavax from a company that has never made a vaccine is the way to go and funnily enough every other person that I know with that thought is big into YouTube, doing their own research, second guessing vaccines, and saying they aren't anti vaxx but living in those spaces
Novavax makes the annual flu vaccine. Obviously you aren't youtubing well enough. The numbers in for absolute risk reduction and information on mutations have come from peer reviewed papers.

Stop being ignorant and sprouting your unwarranted opinions. I say I'm going to potentially have a vaccine and you harrass me. Good job on making me feel less hesitant about it.
 

MrKK

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Hyperbole for the sake of making a point isn’t an executable offence, I get your point but in this instance someone saying this is like being in prison is likely just pointing out that this is extremely difficult for them not that they are actively avoiding dropping the soap at home. Going all “it’s nothing like prison” is catering to the 2% of people claiming dictator Dan is legitimately Stalin opposed to the 98% who are just tired and using the phrase flippantly.
My comment that started this was 'forced isolation', which for Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra folk it is right now. Most of their social outlets are closed and in Melbourne's case they literally can't leave their house for 8 hours a day.

I never said it was a prison, although our country as a whole basically is right now, regardless of freedoms within. Ditto for some states.
 

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mrmonkey

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Hyperbole for the sake of making a point isn’t an executable offence, I get your point but in this instance someone saying this is like being in prison is likely just pointing out that this is extremely difficult for them not that they are actively avoiding dropping the soap at home. Going all “it’s nothing like prison” is catering to the 2% of people claiming dictator Dan is legitimately Stalin opposed to the 98% who are just tired and using the phrase flippantly.
I've seen some people get so upset when people refer to Dan Andrews as dictator Dan. It's a joke relax, no one actually thinks he's an actual dictator. I can't help think if it was a lib premier they would see the funny side.
 

Hawk Dork

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I've seen some people get so upset when people refer to Dan Andrews as dictator Dan. It's a joke relax, no one actually thinks he's an actual dictator. I can't help think if it was a lib premier they would see the funny side.
A Lib premier would have got less of a kicking by Uncle Ruperts minions and got more money and Pz quicker
 

Unknown Identity

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I mean your math is so far from reality
You're not the first person I've met that decided novavax from a company that has never made a vaccine is the way to go and funnily enough every other person that I know with that thought is big into YouTube, doing their own research, second guessing vaccines, and saying they aren't anti vaxx but living in those spaces
So despite efficacy testing higher than the other vaccines so far, less side effects and our government already purchasing 51 million doses before the final phase of trials being completed you're labelling this the anti-vaxxers vaccine.

Laughable.
 

craigos

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Look it's pretty close to prison if you live in a tiny apartment block, work from home and follow the rules to the letter of the law.

You get only 1 hour per day of outside time, you can't have any visitors and you get punished anytime someone else in the community (inmates) does something "wrong" even though you had no role in it.
 

Punt Road Feral

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Is it bad for me to say I’m skeptical of the ‘modelling’ that are presented to governments for decision making?

We had examples where experts put out opinion pieces and speculate that NSW was going to grow to 15,000-20,000 a day with its projected rate yet not it appears to be plateauing at 1,400 per day.

It would be safe to say these ‘models’ done would be ultra conservative as an ass coverings exercise in case they are proven wrong and it becomes much worse then the spotlight goes on them and they are open to criticism.

Governments would be exactly the same and be extremely hesitant on its risk management and making sure from a PR perspective that the modeling was conservative and the outcome was actually better than anticipated and they save the day and take all the credit.

Just an opinion but these politicians are all about ass covering and scoring browny points and looking better for it.
 

Hawk Dork

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Between 2,000 and 7,000 people a day could be hospitalised with Covid in England next month unless the government urgently implements a “basket of measures”, government scientific advisers have warned as Boris Johnson made clear he hopes to avoid fresh restrictions.

The prime minister confirmed on Tuesday that Covid passports, the return of mandatory mask-wearing and advice to work from home would be kept in reserve as the government’s “plan B”, to be introduced if the NHS is at risk of being overwhelmed.



But newly published modelling from experts on the Sage advisory committee warn the government not to wait too long, with cases, hospitalisations and deaths all higher than a year ago despite the success of the vaccination programme.

 

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craigos

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Is it bad for me to say I’m skeptical of the ‘modelling’ that are presented to governments for decision making?

We had examples where experts put out opinion pieces and speculate that NSW was going to grow to 15,000-20,000 a day with its projected rate yet not it appears to be plateauing at 1,400 per day.

It would be safe to say these ‘models’ done would be ultra conservative as an ass coverings exercise in case they are proven wrong and it becomes much worse then the spotlight goes on them and they are open to criticism.

Governments would be exactly the same and be extremely hesitant on its risk management and making sure from a PR perspective that the modeling was conservative and the outcome was actually better than anticipated and they save the day and take all the credit.

Just an opinion but these politicians are all about ass covering and scoring browny points and looking better for it.
I'd say it's a fair critique. Was a tonne of other "experts" chiming in that cases are doubling every 5 -7 days and that would mean thousands of cases per day rather quickly.

Funnily enough none of these are held to account to any of this or asked to explain why their estimates are not slightly off, but miles upon miles away.
 

Sub_Zero

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Between 2,000 and 7,000 people a day could be hospitalised with Covid in England next month unless the government urgently implements a “basket of measures”, government scientific advisers have warned as Boris Johnson made clear he hopes to avoid fresh restrictions.

The prime minister confirmed on Tuesday that Covid passports, the return of mandatory mask-wearing and advice to work from home would be kept in reserve as the government’s “plan B”, to be introduced if the NHS is at risk of being overwhelmed.



But newly published modelling from experts on the Sage advisory committee warn the government not to wait too long, with cases, hospitalisations and deaths all higher than a year ago despite the success of the vaccination programme.

is this what you do all day?
 

phantom13

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Look it's pretty close to prison if you live in a tiny apartment block, work from home and follow the rules to the letter of the law.

You get only 1 hour per day of outside time, you can't have any visitors and you get punished anytime someone else in the community (inmates) does something "wrong" even though you had no role in it.
Also this. Inner city in a studio apartment with minimal green space within your 5kms isnt pleasant.
 

Poetic Justice

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So VIC numbers seem to be holding at <500

The fear mongers will have us believe we're about to hit Sydney numbers but they've been saying that for long enough now that it doesn't seem to be happening.

Also; it's interesting that the numbers keep hovering around here despite a seriously high amount of mystery cases. What gives?
 

Caesar

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Is it bad for me to say I’m skeptical of the ‘modelling’ that are presented to governments for decision making?
If you haven't done any research, then yeah - the way the modelling is produced is pretty transparent as long as you have a bit of statistical knowledge and a willingness to dig through the assumptions

Rob Hyndman from Monash gave a very interesting talk on this at ANZSC a couple of months ago, I will see if I can find it. He is one of the statisticians attached to the national group of mathematicians and epidemiologists producing the national COVID forecast. This is the primary set of modelling that is delivered to state and territory governments for them to plan their COVID responses. They use a huge amount of data to feed a very sophisticated ensemble model, and it has proven pretty effective at tracking the development of outbreaks.

The talk is really worth watching, some of the stuff is borderline scary - e.g. they are getting feeds of geospatial tracking data from Apple, Google, and Facebook to model how people are interacting in the community

EDIT: Here you go, Rob's part starts at around the 1hr mark: Probabilistic ensemble forecasting of Australian COVID-19 cases | Rob J Hyndman
 
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Gralin

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Hyperbole for the sake of making a point isn’t an executable offence, I get your point but in this instance someone saying this is like being in prison is likely just pointing out that this is extremely difficult for them not that they are actively avoiding dropping the soap at home. Going all “it’s nothing like prison” is catering to the 2% of people claiming dictator Dan is legitimately Stalin opposed to the 98% who are just tired and using the phrase flippantly.
Yeah and being flippant about something that you haven't experienced can be a pretty sh*t thing to do when those that have experienced hear it or read it.

I really have no idea how you think saying its not prison is catering to the Dictator Dan crowd either.

My comment that started this was 'forced isolation', which for Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra folk it is right now. Most of their social outlets are closed and in Melbourne's case they literally can't leave their house for 8 hours a day.

I never said it was a prison, although our country as a whole basically is right now, regardless of freedoms within. Ditto for some states.
Yeah forced isolation made me think about solitary, how its used in prisons as a punishment, I didn't think you were comparing stay at home orders to being locked up or in mandatory detention, I'd just read some posts elsewhere with people complaining that they were in prison.

So despite efficacy testing higher than the other vaccines so far, less side effects and our government already purchasing 51 million doses before the final phase of trials being completed you're labelling this the anti-vaxxers vaccine.

Laughable.
It's the latest in the list of vaccines on the horizon that people are waiting for instead of taking what is available, sure some are waiting, some are just using it as their excuse for not getting vaccinated right now.

Look it's pretty close to prison if you live in a tiny apartment block, work from home and follow the rules to the letter of the law.

You get only 1 hour per day of outside time, you can't have any visitors and you get punished anytime someone else in the community (inmates) does something "wrong" even though you had no role in it.
There are common elements but not sure its pretty close

is Melbourne still receiving flights from overseas? I find it odd that there have been no cases reported in hotel quarantine for awhile?
we've had a few cases this month, the numbers are so low that you have to question why we are capping international arrivals
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