Coronavirus Betting Thread

NYRB

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Update on the Olympics Opening Ceremony to go ahead on 24th July? (odds date 22/3/20)

Yes $1.11 v $9.33 No

Will take something drastic for it to go ahead on the date 24th July. Think a decision should be made within the next week or two surely.
 

54Dogs

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Update on the Olympics Opening Ceremony to go ahead on 24th July? (odds date 22/3/20)

Yes $1.11 v $9.33 No

Will take something drastic for it to go ahead on the date 24th July. Think a decision should be made within the next week or two surely.
IOC are the only organisation in a bigger bubble thean PVL and the NRL so you never know, they seem committed.

ScMo just said our athletes will be required to respect the overseas travel ban so won't be going if the ban is still on
 

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NYRB

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Here is another Australian market Id like to see.


When the next AFL match will be played? After the suspension of the AFL announcement today.

Before 30th April
Before 31st May
Before 30th June
Before 31st July
Before 31st August
Before 30th September
Before 31st October
Before 30th November
Before 31st December
2021 onwards
IOC are the only organisation in a bigger bubble thean PVL and the NRL so you never know, they seem committed.

ScMo just said our athletes will be required to respect the overseas travel ban so won't be going if the ban is still on
Sounds like you think 'Yes' might be worth a bet there.
 

NYRB

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There is the possibility that the Olympics could go ahead without some nations. So that $9.33 looks a great bet, if Japan does indeed go ahead with the Opening Cermony.
 

NYRB

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Im not an expert on predicting but with the season suspended till end of May, i thought about the odds on when the next AFL match will begin. (after this week)

Before 30th April= $52.00
Before 31st May= $40
Before 30th June= $16.50
Before 31st July= $10
Before 31st August= $10
Before 30th September= $5.80
Before 31st October= $5.80
Before 30th November=$7.10
Before 31st December= $55
2021 onwards = $5


McLachlan announced no matches till end of May. With the Olympics likely to be suspended till late July, there may by the possibility of a shortened AFL season beginning around August or September. Maybe they could have some sort of group involving say 2 groups of 9 teams. Having a tournament starting in December would be too late. I see the next game of AFL being played next year (2021 or later) around a 20% chance.
 

NonPhixion

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Some lucky punter got 'Yes' at $6.40 on Betfair and 'No' was matched as low as $1.18. Those guys be laughing now.
wow that's unbelieveable
you don't get anything better than that at $6.40
 

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mianfei

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Event 2: Will Liverpool be declared the winners of the 2019/20 Premier League before another Premier League fixture is played (on or after 17th March 2020)
Yes $2.10 v $1.74 No
Most likely “Yes”. One can also be sure than NHL season will be cancelled, as both soccer and ice hockey would lose a lot more money playing without fans than basketball. Also, 2019 will be the last County Cricket Championship ever (and it is my obsession with old county cricket from which my username is taken in an unusual way), as the ECB says it will not be a priority if it does get back to staging games this summer.
 

NYRB

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Eurostar to stop London-Continent travel for at least one day by 1 July 2020

Yes $1.23 v $3.35 No

Rules:

"This market will be settled for yes if the Eurostar passenger train service (NOT THE EUROTUNNEL CAR SERVICE), has no direct services between the UK and any station on the European continent, such as, but not exclusively, Paris and Lille, for one full calendar day by the date specified in the market. All dates/times in UK time. If there is no interruption between the UK and the continent by the time period specified, this market will be settled for yes. "
 

NYRB

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Most likely “Yes”. One can also be sure than NHL season will be cancelled, as both soccer and ice hockey would lose a lot more money playing without fans than basketball. Also, 2019 will be the last County Cricket Championship ever (and it is my obsession with old county cricket from which my username is taken in an unusual way), as the ECB says it will not be a priority if it does get back to staging games this summer.

can get 'Yes' at odds of $4.60 if keen
 

mianfei

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Anyway if bookmakers or exchanges are reading this thread, here are some Coronavirus betting markets I'd like to see from an Australian perspective.

1. Will the AFL season have the fully completed 17 home and away season?
3. Will the AFL season get to the Finals stage?
5. Will QANTAS resume flights to Mainland China before 1st July 2020?
6. Will the Melbourne Cup start on its scheduled date?
7. Will the Australian test cricket team play a match either overseas or home this season?
1. No, almost certainly
3. If it does get started, it might be played like the old “Foster’s Cup” as a single-elimination tournament with seeding based on 2019 standings
5. Possibly, if China improves
6. Likely, unless COVID-19 is not contained or intensifies during the cool weather of the southern winter into a pandemic worse than in Italy
7. No, almost certainly the COVID-19 epidemic is the final nail in the coffin for longer forms of cricket – too hard to televise, too many alternative distractions and too slow play for large enough crowds, and new health regulations
 
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NYRB

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Speaking of cooling weather , been doing reading and they are saying Coronavirus is less likely to be impactful on humid and warmer conditions. Europe is traditionally a cooler, colder weather and are conditions more likely for the virus to spread. (thats from my readings so far on this situation)
 

FallingLiefs

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The long term ones I would really be factoring in 2nd and 3rd waves. We could be up and running by July only to come crashing back down in October.

Current mapping using China as the only point of cycle nearing completion (hopefully) over a period of 4 months. Which puts us in July. The Spanish flu came and went in 3 waves over 3 on 3 off type system (very broad generalisation) factoring in the same here October-December may be a write off too. Eradication seems unlikely so there is a strong chance of multiple waves and living life with this for a large period of time
 

FallingLiefs

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Speaking of cooling weather , been doing reading and they are saying Coronavirus is less likely to be impactful on humid and warmer conditions. Europe is traditionally a cooler, colder weather and are conditions more likely for the virus to spread. (thats from my readings so far on this situation)
Yes, this is true but really only affects open areas and this is not a main infection point mainly due to UV. Air Conditioned interiors, living,working and general human movement areas is basically breeding weather of viruses. The numbers say that our rate of growth in the early stages warmth has had little to no impact in comparison to cool places like Iran. I would be preparing for this to hit as hard as it has there with hopefully some flattening or reduction of peak of the curve however that seems unlikely given the average Australian persons response.
 

FallingLiefs

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Is there a news source that mentions air conditioning having an impact on influencing the coronavirus ?
No, was a simple way to show that while there are certain medically approved papers that temperature affects the inactivity of the virus that the most common place for getting infected isn't somewhere that the daily temperature has a huge impact on.

So while it's 40C outside, my house and workplace is 18C so really the 40C means nothing when i'm far more likely to be infected inside where high traffic of people have come through, the same is showing in the numbers across Australia on actual infections where we have very little early difference to colder nations.
 

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