Coronavirus Betting Thread

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NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
1,830
559
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Odds courtesy of the Smarkets Betting Exchange (25/3/20):

English Schools To Reopen:
Before June 2020= $7.40
June-August 2020= $3.05
September 2020 Onwards=$1.44

June-August 2020 odds on now, which I found bewildering. UK had its highest death toll on Friday with 980 deaths in a day. (from BBC)

Odds on 11/4/20

Before June 2020= $5.20
June-August 2020= $1.69
September 2020 onwards = $2.74
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,879
3,072
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
June-August 2020 odds on now, which I found bewildering. UK had its highest death toll on Friday with 980 deaths in a day. (from BBC)

Odds on 11/4/20

Before June 2020= $5.20
June-August 2020= $1.69
September 2020 onwards = $2.74

my best mate is a primary teacher in London. I’ll try get some inside info. LOL
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
1,830
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Auckland, New Zealand
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GWS
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If an AFL grand final was hosted this year, I have doubts the health and government authorities would let in above 75,000. Think we could see a grand final of around 30,000 max.

Bump this thread come Grand Final day. This virus won't go away they are saying for at least a year or so.

This is a bit left field. But it got me thinking tonight, with all this social distancing, I think this could be the end of nightclubs in particular.
 

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NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,879
3,072
AFL Club
Collingwood
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
SMarkets - US Unemployment rate May 2020:
Lower than 8.0% - $3.35 > $7.2
8.0 – 10.9% - $3.35 > $3.35
11.0 – 13.9% - $3.35 >$3.35
14.0% or higher - $3.25 > $2.14

"The survey of 45 economists, conducted April 3-7, showed that the US unemployment rate is expected to spike to 12 per cent in the second quarter"


I think you could wager on both 11-13.9% & 14% or higher and get a nice easy profit. Cant see how it goes lower than 11%. Although this would have been more optimal to do so last week. Value seems to be sucked out now
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
1,830
559
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
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I honestly think with the Coronavirus going around, we won't see any contact sports for a while. AFL, NRL, Rugby Union, Soccer, Basketball . We wont see nightclubs, pubs - people generally like to touch each other in these places.

I can see the social distancing rule in place until a vaccine is found, which could be 12-18 months to go.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
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I honestly think with the Coronavirus going around, we won't see any contact sports for a while. AFL, NRL, Rugby Union, Soccer, Basketball . We wont see nightclubs, pubs - people generally like to touch each other in these places.

I can see the social distancing rule in place until a vaccine is found, which could be 12-18 months to go.
Ive got a lot of respect for you NYRB but I have to disagree with you on this. Im still in the camp that thinks this virus has been blown out of proportion and created unnecessary paranoia amongst the public. The constant numbers we see on the news scares people but in reality the same amount of people if not more die of the flu every year and no one gives a crap. You can say these distancing measures have helped and they would have to an extent but I think in the long-term they will do more harm than good.
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
1,996
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Adelaide
You don’t think some of this paranoia is absurd ?
The fact the thought of nightclubs never coming back entered someone's head is proof the paranoia is OTT.

If they can't return, neither can concerts, festivals, the fringe etc. Some people probably want this, but those people are losers with nothing to gain by life returning. No social lives, get their $1500 a FN for nothing. Don't listen to these people & stop watching the news. After a day or 2, you'll realize how f*cking insane it is we have strict measures in place for a virus which has little to no effect on 99% of the population...

Barely anyone is even testing positive for it now - quarantine the sick, the rest of us will be fine
 

BuddysBiggestFan

Premiership Player
Oct 24, 2008
3,579
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You don’t think some of this paranoia is absurd ?
There is no vaccine for this virus. It usually takes 10 years to find a vaccine, they are trying to find one in 1-2 years if we’re lucky. We open everything up, it’ll just come back, it’ll spread and everything shuts down again.

Then everyone will be blaming the government for not locking everything down. Seriously, people are never happy, especially Australians.
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
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Auckland, New Zealand
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If they can't return, neither can concerts, festivals, the fringe etc. Some people probably want this, but those people are losers with nothing to gain by life returning. No social lives, get their $1500 a FN for nothing. Don't listen to these people & stop watching the news. After a day or 2, you'll realize how f*cking insane it is we have strict measures in place for a virus which has little to no effect on 99% of the population..

As a business owner, I would love to see sports events, festivals, concerts, pubs get back to business. The ones I most feel for this is mortgage house owners, business owners and people who were just starting to crack it, in terms of employment opportunities. The reality is , Australia will experience a recession this year and it will affect the majority of the population. I am also grateful for the fact that I have employment in these tough times. (before the jokes come out, it aint gambling either)

But I honestly can see nightclubs especially, going down. Before you suggest im anti-social (maybe I am - as I have not many friends)....I use to go out heaps and loved chitting chatting to hot chics. Things like dancing studios will be harmed as well. I'm just seeing it as it is.
 
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mianfei

Club Legend
May 10, 2009
1,397
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The talk is the Tokyo 2021 Olympics may not go ahead next year.

Wonder what the odds of it not going on next year?
Not implausible. However, they did say a 2022 option had always been available before the decision to postpone to 2021 was made. I do not imagine they would even now have ruled 2022 out.

Dr. Zeke Emmanuel at Real Clear Politics says that – at least in North America and speaking of that continent – the 2020 NFL season, all 2020/2021 seasons and the 2021 MLB season, will be played entirely without crowds, assuming they do get played. Dr. Zeke says, according to ice hockey defenceman Drew Doughty, that it will be October 2021 at the earliest before crowds return to games. Nonetheless, Zeke does not mention the most probable outcome: that all future sport is played behind closed doors for good and that fans attending games becomes a fond memory elders tell younger generations. Hence, it is virtually certain the 2021 Olympics will be played behind closed doors if not postponed, and the Summer Olympics will likely be behind closed doors even if postponed to 2022.
This is a bit left field. But it got me thinking tonight, with all this social distancing, I think this could be the end of nightclubs in particular.
Nightclubs – at least as in the small gigs at public bars which I have experienced in the city – are likely to return much sooner that large-scale live music concerts. There are not that many people in them, and they are not nearly so close as spectators in sporting events. The end of nightclubs as I know them is much less likely than a permanent shift to behind-closed-doors sport.

Whether large-scale concerts, for example for large classical orchestras or big-selling rock bands, could be televised or broadcast on radio with no spectators is another issue entirely. They would lose more than sports from no crowds and artificial crowd noise would be much more difficult as it interferes with music much more than with sporting commentary on television or radio. If big concerts can never be held again – just as it is certain spectator sport is a thing of the past already – it might alter the pattern of music sales dramatically.
 
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NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
1,830
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Auckland, New Zealand
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GWS
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Nightclubs – at least as in the small gigs at public bars which I have experienced in the city – are likely to return much sooner that large-scale live music concerts. There are not that many people in them, and they are not nearly so close as spectators in sporting events. The end of nightclubs as I know them is much less likely than a permanent shift to behind-closed-doors sport.

I tell you one thing, since Covid, people are becoming less and less likelier to congregate in large groups. Maybe we need a nightclub Australia market up? I can't see why people would want to attend clubs in this current situation and Covid will change peoples mindset for good. Yes we are becoming more of a nanny state with big brother watching but if the trend in Japan and Singapore is any indication, there may be a 2nd peak around the corner.

Nightclubs to Open in Australia anyone in 2020?

Yes $5.00 v $1.25 No


It has to be a government announcement to allow it. Not just a random club deciding to open up.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,879
3,072
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
June-August 2020 odds on now, which I found bewildering. UK had its highest death toll on Friday with 980 deaths in a day. (from BBC)

Odds on 11/4/20

Before June 2020= $5.20
June-August 2020= $1.69
September 2020 onwards = $2.74
before June 2020 is getting close to odds on now. My mate said He has been told there is a good chance he will return to work in May. I’ll try get a shout as soon as he gets confirmation.
 

mianfei

Club Legend
May 10, 2009
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The fact the thought of nightclubs never coming back entered someone's head is proof the paranoia is OTT.

If they can't return, neither can concerts, festivals, the fringe etc.
Would it be worth betting on when full-scale concerts return (perhaps different prices for different countries):
  1. before October 2020
  2. October 2020 to March 2021
  3. April to September 2021
  4. October 2021 to March 2022
  5. April 2022 onwards
  6. not at all
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
1,996
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Adelaide
Would it be worth betting on when full-scale concerts return (perhaps different prices for different countries):
  1. before October 2020
  2. October 2020 to March 2021
  3. April to September 2021
  4. October 2021 to March 2022
  5. April 2022 onwards
  6. not at all
Well it wont be 6 and wont be 1 if by full scale you mean everywhere in the world. For australia id back 3 if i had to.
 

mianfei

Club Legend
May 10, 2009
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...by full scale you mean everywhere in the world
By “full-scale”, I actually meant large-attendance concerts as one would expect for tours of major rock bands, not everywhere in the world.

Here’s another one:
I am not concerned with what date they make such a regret.

If Dr. Zeke Emmanuel is correct, spectators will not be back watching sports at least in North America until fall [northern autumn; southern spring] 2021 at the very earliest. That would mean all summer [southern winter] 2021 sports would be behind-closed-doors if contested. Under such a situation, sporting organisations would be likely to feel they had lost an opportunity to adapt by playing the 2020 events without spectators rather than postponing and/or cancelling.
 
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NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,879
3,072
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
SMarkets - US Unemployment rate May 2020:
Lower than 8.0% - $3.35 > $7.2 > $6.8
8.0 – 10.9% - $3.35 > $3.35 > $4.1
11.0 – 13.9% - $3.35 >$3.35 > $3.15
14.0% or higher- $3.25 > $2.14 > $2

There has been very little traded on this market at this point.
 

mianfei

Club Legend
May 10, 2009
1,397
334
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As Premier Daniel Andrews has said many COVID-19 restrictions will stay in place for two years, here‘s a post for a poll on when will spectators return to AFL matches?

I will not rule out spectators returning during a season, for instance at the beginning of a finals series, rather than at its beginning, or that they will return (at first or permanently) only in a restricted way with at least half of all seats required to be unoccupied.

Vote for the season you think spectators will return – if they will do so at all – to AFL matches, regardless of what stage of the season this occurs or what conditions be applied.
  1. 2021 or earlier?
  2. 2022?
  3. 2023?
  4. 2024?
  5. 2025 or later?
  6. or as I have said as likely, not at all?
 
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Sep 4, 2003
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By “full-scale”, I actually meant large-attendance concerts as one would expect for tours of major rock bands, not everywhere in the world.

Here’s another one:
I am not concerned with what date they make such a regret.

If Dr. Zeke Emmanuel is correct, spectators will not be back watching sports at least in North America until fall [northern autumn; southern spring] 2021 at the very earliest. That would mean all summer [southern winter] 2021 sports would be behind-closed-doors if contested. Under such a situation, sporting organisations would be likely to feel they had lost an opportunity to adapt by playing the 2020 events without spectators rather than postponing and/or cancelling.
Trying to work out how the Tour De France would be behind closed doors for the entirety of the course. :think:
 

mianfei

Club Legend
May 10, 2009
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334
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Trying to work out how the Tour De France would be behind closed doors for the entirety of the course.
I presume the government could ensure the public except cameramen, radio announcers and local residents were excluded from an area within a prescribed distance from the cyclists. Roxana Mărăcineanu, France’s Sports Minister, had proposed holding the Tour under this format in March, so obviously some think the financing of this idea is not an issue.
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
1,996
2,337
AFL Club
Adelaide
As Premier Daniel Andrews has said many COVID-19 restrictions will stay in place for two years, here‘s a post for a poll on when will spectators return to AFL matches?

I will not rule out spectators returning during a season, for instance at the beginning of a finals series, rather than at its beginning, or that they will return (at first or permanently) only in a restricted way with at least half of all seats required to be unoccupied.

Vote for the season you think spectators will return – if they will do so at all – to AFL matches, regardless of what stage of the season this occurs or what conditions be applied.
  1. 2021 or earlier?
  2. 2022?
  3. 2023?
  4. 2024?
  5. 2025 or later?
  6. or as I have said as likely, not at all?
2021 has crowds imo, 22 at the absolute latest.
 

half_back_flank

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 16, 2008
10,416
5,776
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I tell you one thing, since Covid, people are becoming less and less likelier to congregate in large groups. Maybe we need a nightclub Australia market up? I can't see why people would want to attend clubs in this current situation and Covid will change peoples mindset for good. Yes we are becoming more of a nanny state with big brother watching but if the trend in Japan and Singapore is any indication, there may be a 2nd peak around the corner.

Nightclubs to Open in Australia anyone in 2020?

Yes $5.00 v $1.25 No


It has to be a government announcement to allow it. Not just a random club deciding to open up.
It's pedantic, but you are welcome to frame markets for me any time.
 

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