Coronavirus Betting Thread

[mianfei]

Europe is traditionally a cooler, colder weather and are conditions more likely for the virus to spread. (thats from my readings so far on this situation)

That would be disastrous for Australia if the cooler weather helps transmission! That might challenge Scott Morrison even more, and leave Australia with a real eighteen month lockdown (which some have suggested as likely) without services ever reopening and potentially huge problems both financial and political. Huge death tolls of up to 15 percent of Australia’s 25,000,000 people (3,750,000) would be likely if the government says it cannot do anything and leaves it to an unregulated private sector to provide care. Weimar-style hyperinflation would be likely if the government just prints money to try to deal with a crisis

Yes, this is true but really only affects open areas and this is not a main infection point mainly due to UV. Air Conditioned interiors, living, working and general human movement areas is basically breeding weather of viruses. The numbers say that our rate of growth in the early stages warmth has had little to no impact in comparison to cool places like Iran. I would be preparing for this to hit as hard as it has there with hopefully some "flattening of the curve" however that seems unlikely.

Would it get worse even than Italy in this coming winter? Will Australia surpass Italy’s death total?

I drive my car a lot with air conditioning on, would you advise against this in this time of uncertainty?

Yes. If it is true it is proof – like the country’s unrivalled bad record regarding greenhouse gas emissions – that Australia needs a massive improvement in home energy standards and that the rest of the world must demand these be paid 100 percent out of the pockets of the big corporate polluters.

 

[NYRB]

I think one thing I might try to avoid is trains and buses. Just personally prefer to be somewhere less crowded for time being.

 

[mianfei]

I think one thing I might try to avoid is trains and buses. Just personally prefer to be somewhere less crowded for time being.

If things get as bad as they seem likely to, public transport will simply shut down and – as is occurring on interstate rail lines – passenger rail lines will be temporarily or permanently changed to freight use.

 

[FallingLiefs]

That would be disastrous for Australia if the cooler weather helps transmission! That might challenge Scott Morrison even more, and leave Australia with a real eighteen month lockdown (which some have suggested as likely) without services ever reopening and potentially huge problems both financial and political. Huge death tolls of up to 15 percent of Australia’s 25,000,000 people (3,750,000) would be likely if the government says it cannot do anything and leaves it to an unregulated private sector to provide care. Weimar-style hyperinflation would be likely if the government just prints money to try to deal with a crisis
Would it get worse even than Italy in this coming winter? Will Australia surpass Italy’s death total?Yes. If it is true it is proof – like the country’s unrivalled bad record regarding greenhouse gas emissions – that Australia needs a massive improvement in home energy standards and that the rest of the world must demand these be paid 100 percent out of the pockets of the big corporate polluters.

Yeah I don't see that 15% being anywhere near accurate. While I concede this could last on and off for 18months or more until vaccines/cures are found.

Would prefer not to get into too much medical discussion as only basing this off previous epidemics and medical journals as I'm no doctor and personally couldn't be, but from a predictive standpoint don't look at China and say this will be a 3 month thing. They handled it magnificently, as they can with their iron fist and as they proved to do with eradication of SARS. The rest of the world will handle this worse and there will be flare ups (waves) given the large amount already infected.

 

[NYRB]

FaillingLiefs Ive applied and been granted an allowance from Centrelink. I have a job that i can do during this time but exposes me to the public. Will just look to do minimum amount of hours to cover costs. Don't feel like I need to work either as the fund the 'Coronavirus supplement' should be enough to survive.

 

[NYRB]

Sebastian Coe, head of World Atheltics calls for Olympics to be postponed till 2021

Olympics to go ahead on 24th July, now $34.00 if anybody is keen.

 

[iluvparis]

That would be disastrous for Australia if the cooler weather helps transmission! That might challenge Scott Morrison even more, and leave Australia with a real eighteen month lockdown (which some have suggested as likely) without services ever reopening and potentially huge problems both financial and political. Huge death tolls of up to 15 percent of Australia’s 25,000,000 people (3,750,000) would be likely if the government says it cannot do anything and leaves it to an unregulated private sector to provide care. Weimar-style hyperinflation would be likely if the government just prints money to try to deal with a crisis
Would it get worse even than Italy in this coming winter? Will Australia surpass Italy’s death total?Yes. If it is true it is proof – like the country’s unrivalled bad record regarding greenhouse gas emissions – that Australia needs a massive improvement in home energy standards and that the rest of the world must demand these be paid 100 percent out of the pockets of the big corporate polluters.

The government would be brought down in Australia before anything like that happened here. This isn't the US

 

[mianfei]

What about:

1. U.S. Open golf and British Open to be completely cancelled?
   1. would the U.S. Open and especially the British Open be cancelled to permit the Masters and U.S. PGA to be played this autumn?
   2. note that during World War Two the Masters and U.S. PGA were played during some years when the U.S. Open and British Open were not
2. Indianapolis 500 to be held in the autumn?
3. Postponed Olympics held in spring 2021 to avoid conflicts with world athletics championships – and gain better weather to boot?
4. Complete, permanent cancellation of all cricket matches of more than one day’s duration (i.e. last Sheffield Shield, last County Championship already finished, no more Test Cricket)

 

[NYRB]

UK Prime Minister's Daily Briefing

Length of PM Speech on 24 March 2020:
Under 5:30 minutes= $3
5:30-6:29 minutes=$3.55
6:30-7:29 minutes=$3.55
7:30 minutes or over= $4.40

Speaker After PM on 24 March 2020:
Rishi Sunak=$2.78
Patrick Vallance= $3.20
Jenny Harries= $5.90
Other= $3.60

First Journalistic Question on 24 March 2020:
BBC= $1.27
Sky News= $5.90
Other = $7.20



Length of PM speech: This market concerns the daily coronavirus briefing scheduled to be led by Boris Johnson on 24 March 2020. Length of initial speech will be measured from the moment Boris Johnson starts speaking until either a second speaker with a podium starts speaking or Boris Johnson opens the floor to journalists' questions (whichever is earliest). If Boris Johnson does not appear at the daily briefing or the briefing does not take place, this market will be void.

Speaker after PM: This market concerns the daily coronavirus briefing scheduled to be led by Boris Johnson on 24 March 2020. Speaker after PM is defined as the speaker at a podium who is first to speak after Boris Johnson's initial speech. If Boris Johnson is the only person at a podium to speak before he opens the floor to journalists' questions, this market will be void. If Boris Johnson does not appear at the daily briefing or the briefing does not take place, this market will be void.

First journalist question: This market concerns the daily coronavirus briefing scheduled to be led by Boris Johnson on 24 March 2020. The first journalist question is determined by the organisation of the first journalist to be called on by Boris Johnson when he opens the floor to questions. If Boris Johnson does not appear at the daily briefing, no journalist questions are asked, or the briefing does not take place, this market will be void.



The briefing will be around 4AM Eastern Standard time in Aus.

 

[NYRB]

any idea on how long Scott Morrison's briefing was last night?

 

[iluvparis]

any idea on how long Scott Morrison's briefing was last night?

At least 35 minutes - but it depends if you include the q&A or just the prepared remarks?

 

[GROTTO]

Smarkets Betting Exchange
Recession of Countries in 2020


USA Yes $1.14 v $5.60 No
UK Yes $1.08 v $5.50 No
France Yes $1.11 v $5.90 No
Germany Yes $1.13 v $5.60 No
Italy Yes $1.04 v $6.80 No


reckon i priced Australia about right yesterday, but based on those countries id probably push Australia to around $1.25 for a recession in 2020.

Im presuming that you cannot have "Same Corona Multi's" ?

USA into UK into Australia gives you ~$1.50

 

[NYRB]

Odds courtesy of the Smarkets Betting Exchange (25/3/20):

English Schools To Reopen:
Before June 2020= $7.40
June-August 2020= $3.05
September 2020 Onwards=$1.44

Scottish Schools To Reopen:
Before June 2020= $11
June-August 2020= $2.78
September 2020 Onwards= $1.43


its looking dire for the education system. Distance education is not the same as learning in a class environment. Just my opinion.

 

[NYRB]

^^^ Rules for the above market:

"These markets concern the official closing of schools to most students in the respective countries named in the market. The markets will be settled on when there is an official reopening of schools by notification of the respective Government. Once the Government announces when schools are to be reopened by, the date mentioned by the Government will be taken to settle the market. If there is no announcement by the Government for the reopening of schools within the time period of the market, the last contract will be settled as the winner. "

 

[NYRB]

The Australian education industry going to cop a good old whacking from this.

 

[burge13]

NYRB - https://gaaustralia.org.au/

 

[NYRB]

Most likely “Yes”. One can also be sure than NHL season will be cancelled, as both soccer and ice hockey would lose a lot more money playing without fans than basketball. Also, 2019 will be the last County Cricket Championship ever (and it is my obsession with old county cricket from which my username is taken in an unusual way), as the ECB says it will not be a priority if it does get back to staging games this summer.

Smarkets is paying $5.00 for Liverpool to be declared winners if another game is not played.

I think thats the best outsider bet that i can see at the moment. I did hear the West Ham United vice chairman say that Liverpool shouldn't be declared winners but surely common sense has to come in to play? as an example, Perth Wildcats were declared winners of the NBL season 2-1 in a best of 5 series. They were awarded the championship by virtue of them leading the best of 5 series before the series was called off.


Liverpool to be declared winners if another game is not played this season $5.00 v $1.22 If there is a game played again

 

[burge13]

The Australian education industry going to cop a good old whacking from this.

Parts of it. Online education will see a huge uptick in usage with no sport on (to watch or play) and pubs shut indefinitely

If people aren't using the next 3-6 months for personal development they deserve to be left behind after this blows over...

 

[NYRB]

NYRB - https://gaaustralia.org.au/

Dont worry Ill be good. My motto has always been 'eat , sleep, punting, repeat"

 

[GROTTO]

Dont worry Ill be good. My motto has always been 'eat , sleep, punting, repeat"

No time to "rinse and wash".

 

[54Dogs]

Olympics confirmed delayed

 

[mianfei]

Olympics confirmed delayed

Do you like my suggestion of holding them next March or April, with the advantages I note? Is it plausible that anyone in the IOC would think of my idea independently?

English Schools To Reopen:
Before June 2020= $7.40
June-August 2020= $3.05
September 2020 Onwards=$1.44

Scottish Schools To Reopen:
Before June 2020= $11
June-August 2020= $2.78
September 2020 Onwards= $1.43

Could the last bet “September 2020 Onwards” be split into:

• September-November 2020
• January-March 2021
• April 2021 onwards

 

[NYRB]

Parts of it. Online education will see a huge uptick in usage with no sport on (to watch or play) and pubs shut indefinitely

If people aren't using the next 3-6 months for personal development they deserve to be left behind after this blows over...

I know the university will

Do you like my suggestion of holding them next March or April, with the advantages I note? Is it plausible that anyone in the IOC would think of my idea independently?
Could the last bet “September 2020 Onwards” be split into:

• September-November 2020
• January-March 2021
• April 2021 onwards

Pretty sure that would be settled as “September 2020 onwards” means any date after September 1st 2020

I generally find with trends like this , Australia tends to follow what leading countries do in situations like this. There usually is a lag of some sort .

 

[NYRB]

Wimbledon to happen is about 1.67% chance of happening this year.

Yes last matched at $60 on Smarkets, and No matched at $1.02

 

[NYRB]

CARES Act
Will the CARES Act pass the United States Senate on or before Wednesday 25th March 2020?
Yes $1.70 v $1.95 No

Wil the CARES Act pass the United States Senate on or before Sunday 29th March 2020?
Yes $1.16 v $4.90 No

Market Rules: "This market concerns the passage of legislation with the bill number H.R. 748 or a title that includes the phrase "Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act" or "CARES Act". Dates for the progress of this bill will be sourced from the US Congress website. "