Coronavirus Betting Thread

[NYRB]

2020 Nobel Peace Prize Winner (best odds from TAB, SMarkets and Sportsbet):

Inventor of the 2019 Covid Vaccine $2.00
World Health Organization $3.00
Greta Thunberg $3.00
Raoni Metukire $7.50
Jacinda Adern $8
Reporters without Borders $11
Narenda Modi, Loujain al-Hathloul $17.00
Sir David Attenborough $17.50
European Union $18
Donald Trump, Pope Francis, The Arctic Council $21
Julian Assange, Angela Merkel, Imran Khan $26.00
Moon Jae-in $29.00
Alexandra Oscaio-Cortez, Wa Lone/Kyaw Soe oo $41
Elizabeth Warren, Emmanuel Macron, Roberto Firmino, Jose Andres, Amal Clooney, Christine Lagarde, Carlos Puidgemont $51
Boris Johnson, Volodymr Zelensky $61
Chelsea Manning, Edward Snowden $67.00
Xi Jinping, Hilary Clinton, Frederica Mogherini, Raif Badawi, Javad Zarif $81.00
Michelle Obama $91.00
Kim Jong-Un, Scott Morrison, Vladmir Putin, Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn, Kate Dewes/Rob Green, Matteo Salvini, Juan Guaido, Colin Kaepernick, Jair Bolsonaro $101

 

[NYRB]

Dr Li Wenliang is the man who deserves the Nobel Peace Prize

He is currently paying $6 on TAB for Time Person of the year.

 

[NYRB]

any idea why a footballer is on that list ? at $51 Firmino

 

[NYRB]

is Reporters without Borders? an organisation , a journalist? i must admit reading a few articles from Wall Street, NYT, Australian, SMH made me realise there are alot of brave journalists out there.

 

[NonPhixion]

Li Wenliang $10 on SB
way too early for me to get on that market, ill monitor the prices though.

 

[NYRB]

First Named Tournament to Begin 2019/20

Which of the top 5 European football leagues will be the first to resume their 2019/20 league season? (From Smarkets 3/4/20)

English Premier League $2.60
German Bundesliga $2.94
French Ligue 1 $8.80
Italian Serie A $8.80
Spanish La Liga $8.80


Market Rules: "Should none of the named leagues resume their respective 2019/20 league seasons with or without spectators prior to the beginning of a new league season this market will be void. Should two or more league resume on the same day this would be settled as a dead-heat. "

 

[ash_1050]

First Named Tournament to Begin 2019/20

Surely the EPL, the brits have taken the most blaze attitude towards COVID19 and they have an 'all eyes on us' mantra that doesn't extend to other countries.

 

[NYRB]

Surely the EPL, the brits have taken the most blaze attitude towards COVID19 and they have an 'all eyes on us' mantra that doesn't extend to other countries.

Think the Germans have prepared the best of the 5 nations in terms of this coronavirus, which is a credit to their people and government.

 

[mianfei]

First Named Tournament to Begin 2019/20

Which of the top 5 European football leagues will be the first to resume their 2019/20 league season? (From Smarkets 3/4/20)

English Premier League $2.60
German Bundesliga $2.94
French Ligue 1 $8.80
Italian Serie A $8.80
Spanish La Liga $8.80


Market Rules: "Should none of the named leagues resume their respective 2019/20 league seasons with or without spectators prior to the beginning of a new league season this market will be void. Should two or more league resume on the same day this would be settled as a dead-heat. "

I would guess the Bundesliga. Germany is better prepared than any of the others.

Another question, what is the possibility of the Primeira Liga in Portugal resuming before any of those five? Portugal has not suffered as much from COVID-19 as any of the other nations (only 240 deaths as of today) and the Primeira Liga has been rated above Ligue 1 in some past UEFA Coefficient surveys.

 

[NYRB]

New markets up by Smarkets on which sporting events will occur (8/4/20):

British Grand Prix? July 19th
Yes $6.80 v $1.04 No

London Marathon? October 4th
Yes $2.42 v $1.45 No

Twenty20 World Cup? October 18th
This market will be settled for Yes should a ball be bowled in the first Men's Twenty20 World Cup match on the 18th October 2020 in Australia
Yes $2.62 v $1.39 No

 

[NYRB]

if those odds are indication, can just about kiss good bye the AFL season.

 

[NonPhixion]

if those odds are indication, can just about kiss good bye the AFL season.

AFL doesn’t require any overseas travel (bar China game), this will be a factor. Personally think footy will be back in July at this current stage. Probably will be played without crowds tho

 

[NonPhixion]

SMarkets - US Unemployment rate May 2020:
Lower than 8.0% - $3.35
8.0 – 10.9% - $3.35
11.0 – 13.9% - $3.35
14.0% or higher - $3.25

Unemployment rate as of March 2020: 4.4%

Tough market to gauge, TEForecast has it at 9%. Keen to monitor this market over the coming weeks.

 

[NYRB]

Eurostar to stop London-Continent travel for at least one day by 1 July 2020

Yes $1.23 v $3.35 No

There has been a flip flop in the odds on this on Smarkets.

With the outbreak getting larger and more serious in the UK

The odds are now:

Yes $2.02 v $1.65 No

 

[mianfei]

AFL doesn’t require any overseas travel (bar China game), this will be a factor. Personally think footy will be back in July at this current stage. Probably will be played without crowds tho

What odds the 2019 Grand final will prove the last ever AFL game with crowds?

Consider for a moment that back in the 1970s the capacity of the old suburban grounds was cut by over fifty percent. Radically stricter health regulations after COVID-19 could see even larger cuts to the capacity of the MCG and Docklands, potentially by over seventy-five percent which would leave them unable to hold the break-even crowd. If that be so, it is only logical there will never be another AFL game with crowds, ever.

 

[NonPhixion]

What odds the 2019 Grand final will prove the last ever AFL game with crowds?

Consider for a moment that back in the 1970s the capacity of the old suburban grounds was cut by over fifty percent. Radically stricter health regulations after COVID-19 could see even larger cuts to the capacity of the MCG and Docklands, potentially by over seventy-five percent which would leave them unable to hold the break-even crowd. If that be so, it is only logical there will never be another AFL game with crowds, ever.

I’m sorry mate but I have no idea what you are talking about

 

[NYRB]

I’m sorry mate but I have no idea what you are talking about

Think he has a point that we won't possibly see crowds of that size at least in the next decade or so. There may be a situation where you go to the footy, and every 2nd seat will have to be empty to cater to health hazards.

 

[NYRB]

Heathrow Passenger Numbers in April 2020 Over/Under.

'What will be percentage decrease in passenger numbers at Heathrow airport in April 2020 compared to April 2019?

From Smarkets Betting Exchange (10/4/20)

Less than 10.00% $8.20 v $1.02 More than 10.00%

Market Rules:

"This market concerns the number of passengers at Heathrow Airport in April 2020, compared to the April 2019 figure of 6,798,212. The results of this market will be settled according to the total monthly passenger figures published on the Heathrow Airport website (https://www.heathrow.com/company/investor-centre/reports/traffic-statistics). Results will be rounded to two decimal places, and 0.005% will be rounded up. "

 

[iluvparis]

What odds the 2019 Grand final will prove the last ever AFL game with crowds?

I'll offer you 1 trillion to one for any amount of money you like.

 

[NYRB]

AFL doesn’t require any overseas travel (bar China game), this will be a factor. Personally think footy will be back in July at this current stage. Probably will be played without crowds tho

Personally, feel the NRL have made a huge error call in starting their season presumably on May 21st or May 28th as I've been hearing newspapers. Get a feeling , it will get pushed back due to government restrictions closer to the date.

 

[NYRB]

First Named Tournament to Begin 2019/20

Which of the top 5 European football leagues will be the first to resume their 2019/20 league season? (From Smarkets 3/4/20)

English Premier League $2.60
German Bundesliga $2.94
French Ligue 1 $8.80
Italian Serie A $8.80
Spanish La Liga $8.80

What a difference a week makes. The Germans are now favourite to kick off first out of the big 5. (from Smarkets 10/4/20)

German Bundesliga $1.44
English Premier League $6
Italian Serie A $13
French Ligue 1 $15.50
Spanish La Liga $15.50

 

[mianfei]

Think he has a point that we won't possibly see crowds of that size at least in the next decade or so. There may be a situation where you go to the footy, and every 2nd seat will have to be empty to cater to health hazards.

Essentially, that is correct, although it could well be severer than that – like three seats out of every four or even more. Under such conditions AFL clubs would face the rigid capacity constraints historically associated with the NBA or NHL. It would hardly be economic to allow people to attend at all, unless there be a radical shift from traditional (at least de jure) win-maximisation to rigid profit-maximisation amongst AFL clubs.

 

[burge13]

Think he has a point that we won't possibly see crowds of that size at least in the next decade or so. There may be a situation where you go to the footy, and every 2nd seat will have to be empty to cater to health hazards.

Jesus christ people really have been brainwashed by the fear mongering media for this to even be a thought

 

[NYRB]

If an AFL grand final was hosted this year, I have doubts the health and government authorities would let in above 75,000. Think we could see a grand final of around 30,000 max.

Bump this thread come Grand Final day. This virus won't go away they are saying for at least a year or so.

 

[NYRB]

The talk is the Tokyo 2021 Olympics may not go ahead next year.

Wonder what the odds of it not going on next year?