Society/Culture Coronavirus Competiton - congrats to TheMase & its_free_real_estate! new comp closes 6/5/20 6pm ACST

[Deaneus!]

Yeah, when it comes to cases, will they have enough tests?

This is hard, way harder than last month. Fingers crossed the numbers are as low as God/Allah/the Flying Spaghetti Monster can make them, but we all know that isn't going to happen.

herculez09 - 45m cases, 3.2m fatalities
Number37 - 25 million cases, 4 million deaths.
Ron The Bear - 13.1m infected/800,400 deaths
DIG - 9.6 million cases, 360,000 dead.
maryjames - 9 million infected 548,000 deaths.
deaneus - 8.2m cases, 550,000 dead
Better Loosen Up - 8M infected. 600k deaths
Crankyhawk - 7.5 million cases, 400000 dead
BFew - 6,999,999 cases, 369,999 deaths
Cash is King - 6.87 Mil, Deaths 337000
PonsfordMagpie - 6,751,710 cases, 405,102 deaths
its free real estate - 5 million infected, 200,000 deaths
Herne Hill Hammer - 5 million cases, 250,000 dead
Seeds - 5 million infected. 240 thousand deaths.
Run n Spread - 5,000,000 Deaths 175,000
TheMase - 3.585m cases, 334,883 deaths

There's still time to enter!

 

[maryjames]

9 million infected 548,000 deaths.


But I actually think may be more deaths. But fingers crossed I’m way off.

Surely I’m way off ..fingers crossed

Yo on track MJ.. dam.

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

Yo on track MJ.. dam.

I ran a few regressions this morning and I reckon I've got it spot on.

 

[Seeds]

I ran a few regressions this morning and I reckon I've got it spot on.

How could a regression help with this sort of analysis?

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

How could a regression help with this sort of analysis?

It was a joke.

 

[maryjames]

Purely my calculations. And seriously hoping I’m way off. Seems ridiculously high numbers but so did last months guess. I just add up current numbers and do some calculations for 30 days potential growth then think out what may happen with isolation etc and then guess roughly what it may be. 9 million infected is about 10 times what it is today. s**t needs to spread fast to get to that. But sadly it is spreading fast. America will have over 2 million cases by then if multiples to what I’m thinking.

Dam MJ America is well on track to have 2 million by months end. At the moment over 500,000 cases.

 

[Seeds]

Dam MJ America is well on track to have 2 million by months end. At the moment over 500,000 cases.

They are only growing at 30 thousand a day now and that rate is likely to fall from here onwards. Will struggle to reach 1 million.

 

[maryjames]

They are only growing at 30 thousand a day now and that rate is likely to fall from here onwards. Will struggle to reach 1 million.

Let’s find out. I feel the rate per day will go up.

 

[BFew]

herculez09 - 45m cases, 3.2m fatalities
Number37 - 25 million cases, 4 million deaths.
Ron The Bear - 13.1m infected/800,400 deaths
DIG - 9.6 million cases, 360,000 dead.
maryjames - 9 million infected 548,000 deaths.
deaneus - 8.2m cases, 550,000 dead
Better Loosen Up - 8M infected. 600k deaths
Crankyhawk - 7.5 million cases, 400000 dead
BFew - 6,999,999 cases, 369,999 deaths
Cash is King - 6.87 Mil, Deaths 337000
PonsfordMagpie - 6,751,710 cases, 405,102 deaths
its free real estate - 5 million infected, 200,000 deaths
Herne Hill Hammer - 5 million cases, 250,000 dead
Seeds - 5 million infected. 240 thousand deaths.
Run n Spread - 5,000,000 Deaths 175,000
TheMase - 3.585m cases, 334,883 deaths

15 days to go and we've just hit 2 million cases and declared deaths are closing in on 130,000.
Anyone still think that there original end of April 2020 guestimate is accurate?

 

[Deaneus!]

15 days to go and we've just hit 2 million cases and declared deaths are closing in on 130,000.
Anyone still think that there original end of April 2020 guestimate is accurate?

nah I’m way off now I think

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

I think my death numbers are close, but I've overestimated the total number of cases by about 1 to 1.5 million.

 

[Deaneus!]

Yeah, when it comes to cases, will they have enough tests?

This is hard, way harder than last month. Fingers crossed the numbers are as low as God/Allah/the Flying Spaghetti Monster can make them, but we all know that isn't going to happen.

herculez09 - 45m cases, 3.2m fatalities
Number37 - 25 million cases, 4 million deaths.
Ron The Bear - 13.1m infected/800,400 deaths
DIG - 9.6 million cases, 360,000 dead.
maryjames - 9 million infected 548,000 deaths.
deaneus - 8.2m cases, 550,000 dead
Better Loosen Up - 8M infected. 600k deaths
Crankyhawk - 7.5 million cases, 400000 dead
BFew - 6,999,999 cases, 369,999 deaths
Cash is King - 6.87 Mil, Deaths 337000
PonsfordMagpie - 6,751,710 cases, 405,102 deaths
its free real estate - 5 million infected, 200,000 deaths
Herne Hill Hammer - 5 million cases, 250,000 dead
Seeds - 5 million infected. 240 thousand deaths.
Run n Spread - 5,000,000 Deaths 175,000
TheMase - 3.585m cases, 334,883 deaths

There's still time to enter!

Closest number of cases... congratulations to TheMase !

Closest number of deaths... its free real estate !


Great game everyone, well played

 

[DIG]

DIG - 9.6 million cases

ACTUAL - 3 million.



when you’re playing Wii Golf and you launch your driver from the green.

 

[Seeds]

Everyone way overestimated.

how did we all f*** this up so badly?

 

[Crankyhawk]

Everyone way overestimated.

how did we all f*** this up so badly?

We assumed high levels of detection of disease. Underestimated how little testing some 2nd/3rd world countries could do.

 

[BFew]

how did we all f*** this up so badly?

Herd forecasting.

 

[Seeds]

We assumed high levels of detection of disease. Underestimated how little testing some 2nd/3rd world countries could do.

Possibly. But we didnt make that mistake in March and we all knew that testing was insufficient in march, particularly in developing. Testing has actually improved since then.

 

[DIG]

May results will be:

6.2 million cases
421,000 deaths