News Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread II

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DesertRoo

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The Covid 19 pandemic has illustrated conclusively the truth of the old political saying "never let a good crisis go to waste". Electorates around the world have clearly demonstrated that the will give politicians who show the right intent in addressing the pandemic a lot of attitude and support. New York is a classic example where Governor Cuomo clearly made some mistakes early in the crisis but consistently showed empathy, trust in science, and communicated clearly. His approval rating went from the 40s to the 70s.

Andrews I think will be judged harshly for what has been a lack of accountability in dealing with what was clearly gross incompetence from his Government. I would say he is now only 50/50 to lead Labour to the next state election whereas 8 weeks ago he was cruising and riding high.

No politician has failed so completely not only to manage the pandemic response but to identify the political opportunity it offered than Trump. He could have guaranteed a second term by taking the pandemic seriously, taking a measured science-based approach, and setting the right example for his followers. Now he is down over 8% in the polls and is almost guaranteed to lose.
You clearly read to much msnbc type media.
Cuomo Biggest blunder was when he forced the nursing homes to accept covid positive patients. It when ripped though at a rate of knots afterwards, it’s why they have a high death toll.

The sad thing about America is Trump is a shoe in for the next election. The damage is already done, Biden was never a viable candidate, the fact that he’s running with Harris(leaked)as his running mate, pretty much sums the position of the Dems.
One wrote the prison bill, the other enforced it, yay to BLM..

They need fundamental change which neither party is capable of.
 

shintemaster

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I think the whole point of the enquiry is something to hide behind, for the time being.
As any good ceo will tell you, you don’t call for an enquiry without knowing the answers already.

Andrews coming out and saying what happened is unacceptable is a pretty big damnation already.

Andrews now is playing political games, blaming workers, young people, etc for going about what they have to do under the current circumstances.

Its also an attempt at mitigating the responsibility while hiding behind ‘the enquiry’ to direct answering any questions.

Politics is about the long game, and staying in power one more day, have a look what happened to Morrison federally after the bushfires. The knives were sharping for him to resign, yet his popularly has rising under his handling of covid.
While I agree that there is a bit of a game going on here as always Andrew's is still right in that people are doing the wrong thing. I'm far from his biggest fan but we're not doing a good enough job distancing and controlling if a single point of failure can flare up again so quickly. The quarantine may have been the source in this instance but based on the spread we're seeing this kind of rekindling of numbers was only a matter of time. I suspect some of the other state's are about to discover the same thing.

They need fundamental change which neither party is capable of.
Spot on with this IMO. The Democrats frantically worked to eliminate their two most likely candidates (Warren & Sanders) to get Biden up because he represents them and their lobbyists.

The Republican party attempted to do the same with Trump the first time around and miscalculated how likely he was to win their nomination - if they had their way he would never have been president.
 

DesertRoo

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While I agree that there is a bit of a game going on here as always Andrew's is still right in that people are doing the wrong thing. I'm far from his biggest fan but we're not doing a good enough job distancing and controlling if a single point of failure can flare up again so quickly. The quarantine may have been the source in this instance but based on the spread we're seeing this kind of rekindling of numbers was only a matter of time. I suspect some of the other state's are about to discover the same thing.



Spot on with this IMO. The Democrats frantically worked to eliminate their two most likely candidates (Warren & Sanders) to get Biden up because he represents them and their lobbyists.

The Republican party attempted to do the same with Trump the first time around and miscalculated how likely he was to win their nomination - if they had their way he would never have been president.
Your logical isn’t being backed up by the data, victorians behaviour was better than anyone else in the country.. yet we failed the basics
isolate and protect from community..


There’s also links to socio-economic issues playing out, the people who can work from home generally are.. the people who can’t, let’s blame em for spreading a virus..



I think you’re right about the other states, it’s still a virus, you can control it, if it didnt come from the hotels, what’s the bet, it’ll be cheap imported food supplies..
 

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shintemaster

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Your logical isn’t being backed up by the data, victorians behaviour was better than anyone else in the country.. yet we failed the basics
isolate and protect from community..


There’s also links to socio-economic issues playing out, the people who can work from home generally are.. the people who can’t, let’s blame em for spreading a virus..



I think you’re right about the other states, it’s still a virus, you can control it, if it didnt come from the hotels, what’s the bet, it’ll be cheap imported food supplies..
I never claimed we were doing worse than elsewhere, in fact I'd be very surprised if that was the case - I claimed that we weren't doing good enough to stop a single failure from turning into what we have. Which is self evident from what we've seen.

Agree 100% on socio-economic issues (there's a world of stuff to unpack in there as well around work security even for well paid people).
 

7577969919

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You clearly read to much msnbc type media.
Cuomo Biggest blunder was when he forced the nursing homes to accept covid positive patients. It when ripped though at a rate of knots afterwards, it’s why they have a high death toll.

The sad thing about America is Trump is a shoe in for the next election. The damage is already done, Biden was never a viable candidate, the fact that he’s running with Harris(leaked)as his running mate, pretty much sums the position of the Dems.
One wrote the prison bill, the other enforced it, yay to BLM..

They need fundamental change which neither party is capable of.
The nursing home admissions are exactly what I was referring to when I said Mistakes were made. Didn't stop his job approval numbers spiking when he got the response together.

I would say it is not impossible that Trump can win from here but I would currently give him less than a 10% chance. I think you will need to support your argument with some facts and data.

Biden is not only viable, but he is also making almost every post a winner at the moment mostly by letting Trump destroy himself.
Biden has clear leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, enough to swing the election in his favour. He is also building strong leads in sunbelt states that are being hit hard by Covid 19 like Arizona and Florida, and states that were previously safe red, texas, Georgia, and Ohio, are now on a knife-edge.

And I don't watch any MSNBC really.
 

DesertRoo

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The nursing home admissions are exactly what I was referring to when I said Mistakes were made. Didn't stop his job approval numbers spiking when he got the response together.

I would say it is not impossible that Trump can win from here but I would currently give him less than a 10% chance. I think you will need to support your argument with some facts and data.

Biden is not only viable, but he is also making almost every post a winner at the moment mostly by letting Trump destroy himself.
Biden has clear leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, enough to swing the election in his favour. He is also building strong leads in sunbelt states that are being hit hard by Covid 19 like Arizona and Florida, and states that were previously safe red, texas, Georgia, and Ohio, are now on a knife-edge.

And I don't watch any MSNBC really.
One of the biggest tell tail signs in a US elections is the primaries,

Trump was getting double the amount of votes in a dead rubber then any of the democratic rivals.

Biden’s numbers were so low in the lead up to Super Tuesday that there was pressure for him to back out.

The fact all Harris, Major Pete and co dropped out at the opportune time, to give him victory and screw Bernie is not lost on Bernie supporters.
The democrats screwed their biggest vote getter not once, but twice now...

If you think Biden has the pull to get people off the couch, to actually vote, you’ve got rocks in your head...
It’s why Pelosi is pushing so hard for postal voting, even tying the thing to covid stimulus packages.

And this is even before an October surprise
 
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7577969919

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One of the biggest tell tail signs in a US elections is the primaries,

Trump was getting double the amount of votes in a dead rubber then any of the democratic rivals.

Biden’s numbers were so low in the lead up to Super Tuesday that there was pressure for him to back out.

The fact all Harris, Major Pete and co dropped out at the opportune time, to give him victory and screw Bernie is not lost on Bernie supporters.
The democrats screwed their biggest vote getter not once, but twice now...

If you think Biden has the pull to get people off the couch, to actually vote, you’ve got rocks in your head...

And this is even before an October surprise
I think you have fallen for a red herring there. The primaries aren't as useful as one particular guy spruiking his model claims.

We know that Trump's rusted-on supporters are fanatical, but they aren't large enough in number to support a majority.

Biden had won his primary much earlier in the cycle than Clinton when she beat Sanders or Obama when he beat Clinton.

Biden doesn't need the pull to get people off the couch. Trump has it both ways. His fans will get off the couch to vote for him and everyone else will get off the couch to boot him out. Anyway, polling suggests that Biden voters are actually highly motivated to turn up in November.

Bernie gets the activist wing of the party energised but he doesn't have broad appeal. He scares off people in the centre. The Democrats did not screw Bernie, he lost the primaries, both times.
 

DesertRoo

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I think you have fallen for a red herring there. The primaries aren't as useful as one particular guy spruiking his model claims.

We know that Trump's rusted-on supporters are fanatical, but they aren't large enough in number to support a majority.

Biden had won his primary much earlier in the cycle than Clinton when she beat Sanders or Obama when he beat Clinton.

Biden doesn't need the pull to get people off the couch. Trump has it both ways. His fans will get off the couch to vote for him and everyone else will get off the couch to boot him out. Anyway, polling suggests that Biden voters are actually highly motivated to turn up in November.

Bernie gets the activist wing of the party energised but he doesn't have broad appeal. He scares off people in the centre. The Democrats did not screw Bernie, he lost the primaries, both times.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz resignation, Donna Brazile admitting as much, the whole Wikileaks October surprise lost on you, or didn’t register???

The whole Bernie campaign lawsuit against the DNC, where the DNC argued, they have a right to pick their candidate, the primaries are pretty much irrelevant, and everything is a trade secret..

Yeah Bernie got screwed... And his supporters aren’t voting for Biden.





Btw the thing I’m basing my assumption on is the primary model, it’s only happen to predict 25 out of the last 27 US elections, no biggy..

 
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7577969919

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Debbie Wasserman Schultz resignation, Donna Brazile admitting as much, the whole Wikileaks October surprise lost on you, or didn’t register???

The whole Bernie campaign lawsuit against the DNC, where the DNC argued, they have a right to pick their candidate, the primaries are pretty much irrelevant, and everything is a trade secret..

Yeah Bernie got screwed... And his supporters aren’t voting for Biden.





Btw the thing I’m basis my assumption on is the primary model, it’s only happen to predict 25 out of the last 27 US elections, no biggy..
Regardless of whatever happened at the DNC Bernie just didn't win the primaries. He lost pretty convincingly this time. Bernie is being a lot more of a team player this time than he was last, and a lot more of his supporters will turn out in November to get rid of Trump.

And the Primary Model has not predicted 25 of the last 27 elections. It's author claims it has predicted five of the last six, which is no great achievement and would haven't 25 of 27 right. As far as I know, no one has verified this. What he also doesn't tell you is that his model was designed to predict who was going to win the popular vote based on primary turn-out. So he was actually wrong in 2016 but is claiming it anyway.

There are plenty of predictive models that have solid success rates. I will stick with the likes of Five Thirty-Eight and the Cook Report who have much more sophisticated models with strong records of success. Or highly experienced pundits like Henry Olsen who called it 48 to 47 for Clinton in the popular vote last time versus an outcome of 48 to 46. He thinks Trump is in a world of trouble.

If I am wrong I will be the first on BF the day after the election to give you a shout out.
 

DesertRoo

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Regardless of whatever happened at the DNC Bernie just didn't win the primaries. He lost pretty convincingly this time. Bernie is being a lot more of a team player this time than he was last, and a lot more of his supporters will turn out in November to get rid of Trump.

And the Primary Model has not predicted 25 of the last 27 elections. It's author claims it has predicted five of the last six, which is no great achievement and would haven't 25 of 27 right. As far as I know, no one has verified this. What he also doesn't tell you is that his model was designed to predict who was going to win the popular vote based on primary turn-out. So he was actually wrong in 2016 but is claiming it anyway.

There are plenty of predictive models that have solid success rates. I will stick with the likes of Five Thirty-Eight and the Cook Report who have much more sophisticated models with strong records of success. Or highly experienced pundits like Henry Olsen who called it 48 to 47 for Clinton in the popular vote last time versus an outcome of 48 to 46. He thinks Trump is in a world of trouble.

If I am wrong I will be the first on BF the day after the election to give you a shout out.
Thing is I actually hate trump, but I think he’s going to win because, emerica, theyre insular and theyll always do the opposite to what the rest of the world does..


I’ll tip my hat to you on here if Biden wins.
 

koshari

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While I agree that there is a bit of a game going on here as always Andrew's is still right in that people are doing the wrong thing. I'm far from his biggest fan but we're not doing a good enough job distancing and controlling if a single point of failure can flare up again so quickly. The quarantine may have been the source in this instance but based on the spread we're seeing this kind of rekindling of numbers was only a matter of time. I suspect some of the other state's are about to discover the same thing.
I would suggest they have already discovered this, I are uncomfortably sure that it is imminent that they will all follow the same course as us Victorians sooner or later simply because human nature is just so dependable.
 

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koshari

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Work and home are in hotspots in the North and West. My daughters school is inner city and the positive case came from a cleaner, so not likely to spread through the student population, but just subject to deep cleaning and stay at home rules.
aye, well so far gippsland has registered reasonably small positive returns but i know of a lot of people who are still commuting back and forth to casey and cardinia ( with official reasons such as health appointments and work and study requirements) so i just wonder how long it will be till we are in the same boat.personally iam of the opinion of a coupe of weeks at best.
 

rickety

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The Covid 19 pandemic has illustrated conclusively the truth of the old political saying "never let a good crisis go to waste". Electorates around the world have clearly demonstrated that the will give politicians who show the right intent in addressing the pandemic a lot of attitude and support. New York is a classic example where Governor Cuomo clearly made some mistakes early in the crisis but consistently showed empathy, trust in science, and communicated clearly. His approval rating went from the 40s to the 70s.

Andrews I think will be judged harshly for what has been a lack of accountability in dealing with what was clearly gross incompetence from his Government. I would say he is now only 50/50 to lead Labour to the next state election whereas 8 weeks ago he was cruising and riding high.

No politician has failed so completely not only to manage the pandemic response but to identify the political opportunity it offered than Trump. He could have guaranteed a second term by taking the pandemic seriously, taking a measured science-based approach, and setting the right example for his followers. Now he is down over 8% in the polls and is almost guaranteed to lose.
The State Coalition has come in from $2.60 to $2.20 in a week to win the next election. Just saying :-D
 

Black2Blue

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aye, well so far gippsland has registered reasonably small positive returns but i know of a lot of people who are still commuting back and forth to casey and cardinia ( with official reasons such as health appointments and work and study requirements) so i just wonder how long it will be till we are in the same boat.personally iam of the opinion of a coupe of weeks at best.
Having lived in rural Thailand for many years, I have been hearing how things have been well managed in smaller communities as they are used to living with limited government support and have strong self reliance mechanisms. Even though there is some risk from city-country commuting like you say, I would expect the spread to be better contained in rural centres than in Melbourne, where the mix of inflexible closed bureaucracy, political opportunism, and increasingly dog-eat-dog work cultures have started to expose the myth that 'we are all in this together'. Having lived in central Gippsland, I would much rather be back living there now than the hotspots of Melbourne. :rolleyes:
 

rickety

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Pretty funny considering the average punter on the street wouldn’t be able to name the opposition leader, let alone pick him out of a line up.
Hahahaha yep that's me 🙃 Is it someone O'Brien? Not Peter the actor, he always had a decent hairdo :) Just googled him, f@ck me he is bloody 60!!! Fair dinkum!! Made me think of Phelpsy, he'll be bloody 60 this year too. Crikey bloody Nora. Googled again, Michael O'Brien, seat of Malvern. I reckon if rang up Dribble M he'd be Mickey from Malvern :) Wonder if he knows Wayne from St. Albans hahahahahaha
 

7577969919

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The State Coalition has come in from $2.60 to $2.20 in a week to win the next election. Just saying :-D
$2.20 still not that short in a two-horse race. That tightening of odds is purely on where people see the accountability for the second wave heading and nothing to do with the exposed form of the Coalition. How many people could even tell you the leader's name? Still over two years until the next state election and we are a very labor state.
 

rickety

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$2.20 still not that short in a two-horse race. That tightening of odds is purely on where people see the accountability for the second wave heading and nothing to do with the exposed form of the Coalition. How many people could even tell you the leader's name? Still over two years until the next state election and we are a very labor state.
Well I am gonna start asking people from tomorrow, and I see a lot of people :) Young Danny is fave, but in the words of Steve Earle, You never can tell.
 

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