News Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread II

[koshari]

Yes perhaps so. I'd have to confess to having a bit of a crush....a civil libertarian stripper is my ideal woman. Seeing things through rose coloured glasses I guess.

possibly 2 other points you have discounted as well, but i digress........

 

[7577969923]

Your question is odd mate. If you're "exposed", you become "infected".

You will then either gain immunity or die.






If it doesn't kill you.

My question arose from the phrase "antibody-seronegative family members". Not quite sure what that means.

 

[Gasometer]

8 active cases today in Shepp with one admitted to Hospital. The bullet we dodged is turning back towards us.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Yes perhaps so. I'd have to confess to having a bit of a crush....a civil libertarian stripper is my ideal woman. Seeing things through rose coloured glasses I guess.

Mate, you'd be sick of her after a week. Superficially it looks attractive but you'd quickly want to move on from someone so entitled, self-absorbed, irrational and narrow-minded.

 

[koshari]

Mate, you'd be sick of her after a week. Superficially it looks attractive but you'd quickly want to move on from someone so entitled, self-absorbed, irrational and narrow-minded.

not just that, but by judging by her choice of props its evident she is a GoDees supporter,

 

[Snake_Baker]

My question arose from the phrase "antibody-seronegative family members". Not quite sure what that means.

It means they have no significant levels of antibodies.

Basic immunology:

 

[kaboom kid]

I hope I haven't contributed to making you feel that way. I actually have a lot of sympathy for what you are saying. I am definitely sus on the whole loss of civil liberties aspect of this. And of the corporate disaster capitalism bullshit that is coming as the likes of Bill Gates and Peter Thiel try to exert more control over populations exposed to their stuff.

But all the emergency services stuff I've done has also given me another pov.

In an emergency, and that is what this situation is, ie whether you agree or not that is how the state and the people are both treating it. So in an emergency all bets are off. In big emergencies it's not just lives and property it's Social and physical infrastructure that is under threat. Ie entire communities and the state itself.

And in those situations the usual rules or game rules that govern our lives no longer work to keep us alive and healthy. It's the definition of an emergency really. The last or least priority we have after protecting lives and property is "restoring normality". Ie social and physical infrastructure - normal society, ie communities and the state.

The point of all that is - this isn't normal and could get very bad. We haven't seen a pandemic like this. And at New Years, not that long ago we had no idea it was coming. SARS and MERS both have much higher fatality rates, 10% and over 35% for MERS.

So a lot of what is happening is driven by massive uncertainty and justified fear and even now we don't know the long term consequences of this virus in terms of after effects of long term immunity. How long does immunity last? 6 months? A year? A decade? It's a novel... Ie new virus.

We still don't know when the world will be ready to "restore normality" or even if it will.

No you certainly haven't. But thanks a lot for saying that, it very kind of you and much appreciated.
I would agree with much of what you say and respect your experience in dealing with emergencies. . We were in a great position in that we stopped the spread completely initially via the hotel quarantine program. Plus we were behind the US and Western Europe in terms of timing so we had a fair idea of how this will play out. For me the current outbreak is really the first wave for Australia. I personally don't believe there is much we can do to stop the spread of this virus. I suspect this lockdown will fail and we will end up with 5 k to 8 k deaths (entire country) Elimination might have been possible prior to bungled hotel quarantine. Suspect that is impossible now. I don't think elimination is a viable long term strategy as the rest of the world has pretty much accepted the disease is here to stay. Unless you're willing to shut down tourism/international students/business etc until a vaccine is available which may never happen.

 

[muttley45]

It is quite amusing how Donald Trump refers to it as the "China Virus" every time i see him reference it.

 

[koshari]

No you certainly haven't. But thanks a lot for saying that, it very kind of you and much appreciated.
I would agree with much of what you say and respect your experience in dealing with emergencies. . We were in a great position in that we stopped the spread completely initially via the hotel quarantine program. Plus we were behind the US and Western Europe in terms of timing so we had a fair idea of how this will play out. For me the current outbreak is really the first wave for Australia. I personally don't believe there is much we can do to stop the spread of this virus. I suspect this lockdown will fail and we will end up with 5 k to 8 k deaths (entire country) Elimination might have been possible prior to bungled hotel quarantine. Suspect that is impossible now. I don't think elimination is a viable long term strategy as the rest of the world has pretty much accepted the disease is here to stay. Unless you're willing to shut down tourism/international students/business etc until a vaccine is available which may never happen.

iam not very confident of containment either, and not from a policy standpoint but more from the lack of adherence.

 

[koshari]

It is quite amusing how Donald Trump refers to it as the "China Virus" every time i see him reference it.

Not half as humorous as his comment that Biden is "bad for god".

Prolly one of the most absurd statements a politician has made since Howard tried to justify his opposition to gay marriage being a threat to "the survival of the species."

 

[ferball]

OK, thanks for clarifying. Epic SNAFU for Health then. ....

Really it was massive.

Because it was known about immediately it was easier to get on top of it faster. That is all. The Health Minister went public the next day.

If they'd known about the quarantine breach as quickly it might have been stopped as effectively as well. Well definitely cos the numbers of untracked exposures would be so much lower when they took action. I hear there may have even been some knowledge of what was happening but people didn't act effectively or at all? Even so that would have been a lot further after the event than chasing the first quarantine breach the day or day after it happened because you realise how badly someone stuffed up.

But the nature of that Victorian breach was that it was out of view. Especially in comparison to a *en plague ship docking in Sydney Harbour.

If the Ruby Princess cases had gone into the community and spread the virus the way the quarantine cases had it would have been unstoppable and we'd be in the same s**t the rest of the world is. As it is it led to 600+ cases and at least 20 deaths but maybe many more, I honestly dunno.

 

[ferball]

Shut up.

This board neends a shut up emoji. now. You'd cop as much of it as tZ would.

 

[ferball]

The other Nordic countries had lockdowns performed far better than Sweden in terms of health outcome so far I think mortality rates etc almost as good as NZ. I think Denmarks was one of those, definitely Norway and Finland. However I believe they will end up with similar deaths per capita in the end. It will just take longer.

That does depend. The time that flattening the curve will buy could lead to a vaccine or other effective treatments being available before the virus spreads to the same numbers it would have got to without the lockdown. And that will save lives.

If there are no effective treatments or vaccine then it won't but we've been trying to solve this problem as a species for less time than it takes to gestate a baby human. So we've only just got into it, really.

 

[ferball]

Absolute gold. Thanks for posting this.

We didn't hear much about the influenza crisis last year. 902 deaths is far too many. We must lock down indefinitely.

Someone (a retired doctor re registering in case he was needed back in March) told me there were 4000 flu fatalities in 2017 in Australia. I had that flu and it's one of the few times, maybe the only time I genuinely thought a disease could kill me.

 

[Tectonic]

What's different about influenza is that it's already everywhere, we've lived with it and dealt with its lethality for eons.
We don't need another possible killer that people still know next to nothing about floating through the population unfettered

 

[ferball]

Glad to hear you're not facing the loss of civil liberties we're currently facing in Victoria SN. Just to bring you up to speed, we're not allowed to leave our homes between 8 PM and 5 AM, all schools are closed and police are allowed to enter our homes without a search warrant. And our State Government has treated democracy with contempt with our Health Minister playing on her phone and refusing to answer questions on the botched quarantine in parliament. The government tried to close parliament by deeming it non essential. I would argue its never been more essential. Some of the highest fines for non compliance in the Western World. Citizens encouraged to grass each other up for a lack of compliance. Police smashed a womans car window in because she refused to give them information at a checkpoint. Complete loss of freedom and democracy for a disease that has caused 278 deaths in the year to date. 44 cases in ICU out of a total of 4000 beds ie a bit over 1%. Hardly the apocalypse that the State Government/MSM makes out. To put it in perspective 902 Australians died of influenza last year. All elective surgery has been cancelled, which will lead to countless lives lost. Its like no other disease exists.

It's the novelty ... As in genuine newness of it. And the uncertainty that brings.

No other disease does exist like this one. All the rest that effect us we either cope with the consequences or have strategies we use to deal with them.

But I wish more people were making those noises you are about the essential need for parliament, for warranted searches and other fundamental democratic things.

Obviously it won't happen immediately but I wish the general population were more vocal about this stuff. So the pressure is always on government to wind back the police powers etc (I don't hear business calling for these things either, just for freedom to spend or work.)

The way the news media gush like new cheer leaders on a date with the captain of the team about going into lockdown - be it for a police chase, a potential hostage situation, or this virus (it's like they are thinking "finally we all get to go into lockdown too like those American kids when so campaigners goes postal with a gun at school yay.) It's not good. These are the same people that reckon ANZACS died for our freedom. Why are they in such a hurry to give it away?

 

[Caracas]

Someone (a retired doctor re registering in case he was needed back in March) told me there were 4000 flu fatalities in 2017 in Australia. I had that flu and it's one of the few times, maybe the only time I genuinely thought a disease could kill me.

If we base this on Belgium who have appeared to mess things up royally, Australia would have had, at the very least, 25,000 fatalities if we had treated Covid-19 in the same way as we’ve normally treated the flu. Would that be an acceptable number for any of us?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[giantroo]

322 and 19 deaths today

 

[Snake_Baker]

This board neends a shut up emoji. now. You'd cop as much of it as tZ would.

There's not that many snowflakes here, they just appear that way due to the alt accounts.

 

[Snake_Baker]

322 and 19 deaths today

19.

Which lives matter again?

 

[Better Loosen Up]

sh*t!! We may need a new thread.......

US man in his 20s dies of plague

A young man in New Mexico dies of septicaemic plague, 24 hours after Chinese authorities reported the death of a man from bubonic plague in Inner Mongolia.

www.abc.net.au

Chinese man dies of bubonic plague

Whilst historically this was one of the worst diseases we as a human race have experienced, these days it is treated pretty easily in most cases with anti-biotics.

 

[Only Forwards]

5 data points in a row from the point of the peak.

Another two indicates a downward trend.

Positive signs

 

[Themanbun]

Themanbun, you obviously know your industrial relations.

Didn't the Unions recently have a win in court with regard to "so called casual" employees and their rights to holiday and sick pay?

For some reason I only saw this just now. I believe they did although there is a challenge going on, backed by the federal gov. There's also growing calls for a legislative definition of 'casual employment' which prevents (supposed) double-dipping. So it may not be a long lasting one.

AFR posted over the weekend that 1.35m out of 2.5m casuals worked regular shifts for their employer for 12 months or more. Going to be a huge issue I think.

 

[Billy Not Really]

Its only the first week of stage 4 on Wednesday.

Already feels like 3 weeks in due to the overlap of Stage 3....

 

[SpiderBurton22]

For some reason I only saw this just now. I believe they did although there is a challenge going on, backed by the federal gov. There's also growing calls for a legislative definition of 'casual employment' which prevents (supposed) double-dipping. So it may not be a long lasting one.

AFR posted over the weekend that 1.35m out of 2.5m casuals worked regular shifts for their employer for 12 months or more. Going to be a huge issue I think.

Yeah, I'm one of those "casuals".

Have been with this company for 7 years. Working every day, same start time, knock off when all my work is done. My average week is between 34-40 hours.