News Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III - Lockdown #5

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ferball

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Maggotted, I’m stealing that one.
You can have this one too:

Margetted.

Hopefully you'll never have to use it again.
 

Tas

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I am pro-caution on coming out of lockdown, but just have a quick comment on the “it’s only another week/fortnight” thought. When every day is a struggle, every day matters. Whether that’s trying to help a kid through school challenges as an untrained teacher working a full time job, or trying to keep a business from going under, or trying to pay household bills with income slashed, or trying to manage isolation after test results or waiting for test results, every single extra day can be crushingly difficult. I’ve faced a few of those since March and while my broad support for the measures hasn’t faltered, it’s made me very conscious of not being glib about the costs, and the weight of even a small amount of extra time under those pressures.

Hang in, Melbourne people. This has been so hard and you are amazing.
My main concern/criticism is we do not really have an effective plan to mitigate a major outbreak without shutting the state down. 3/4 of the population might live in areas where there is no virus but our government is not capable of shutting down movement where the virus is and allow the rest of the state to operate normally.

Contact tracing is important and it is able to stop the spread of the virus when there is a small number involved, but as we have seen, once it gets to a certain level, the vast majority of cases go into the unknown column because once you start to lose control, significant amounts of the virus accumulates on surfaces and a lot of people get infected without and direct contact with known infected people.

I think we need a far more mobile system, with Andrews we are are either Defcon 5 or Defcon 1, there is no real middle ground. We have a whole bunch of bullshit rules without any scientific/medical principle behind them, like can't go more than 5km or can't go more than 25km at present. This is just authoritarian bullshit. I can go 1km North and there are infected people, i could go 100km east and there is no infection, there is no nuance with this system.

Lets assume the current status quo is a new outbreak, we have 16 active cases in Wyndham, post codes are 3030 with 9 cases, 3029 with 5 cases, 3024 and 3028 with 1 case each and 3026, 3027 and 3211 with 0 cases. What do we do, lock all of Melbourne down? Logic would dictate that you would want to stop people from 3030 and 3029 from moving outside their postcodes and spreading the infection. Anyone who needs to work outside their postcode and particularly outside the LGA should get tested and they should put on a heightened alert, cleaning and disinfecting surfaces, be more careful when they are in public areas, clean things they purchase, the government to deploy more resources to clean public areas. Find out where the two individuals have been in the two other postcodes and focus on cleaning where they have been in public spaces as much as humanly possible.

If there is a significant hotspots, all you should really do is prevent the movement of people in those hotspots, frequent testing of people who need to move out of those hotspots for work. If there are just too many cases to test people regularly enough you just shut down those post codes or LGA to stop the spread.

I think at the worst we got, at least half of Melbourne had zero infections, that is where the police and the military should have been used to devise a system of control points, like my LGA for example, There are certain major roads you need to block off to effectively create a quarantined area. If a whole bunch of people got infected in my area, you want to stop people coming into and out of my area until the public spaces are cleaned and you have a handle on who is infected, the 5km distance thing is meaningless, i could have gone less than 5km north and got infected and they did fu** cleaning the place to the north of me. Why was there an outbreak so close to me because Andrews lets doctors and pilots come in from overseas and they do not have to isolate and quarantine, a doctor came back, had symptoms but didn't isolate and didn't test himself until after he infected dozens of patients.

There are too many shitshow type of things going on. We are going to get outbreaks and possibly a third wave, even if we do not have a re-occurance of the security shitfest of 2020 again because we allow potentially infected people to waltz into the country.

We need to be able to handle outbreaks and hotspots without grinding the state to a halt. If you create a system which maximises the freedoms of people, they will buy into it. We had zero infections from pubs and clubs yet these are the first to be shut down and the last to reopen. They cram people into trains, buses and trams but hey, ten people in a pub... this is a problem.

I just feel there is a much better way to address the problem. If it is a raging inferno like it is in Europe and you just don't have the resources to control it then sure, you should shut down everything to stop the spread, but we continued to let people move who had a required job no matter how badly infected the area they lived was in, we need to be able to control the flow of movement and that means if a place is hot, then even required workers must stop moving, employers need to be able to manage a more mobile scenario where they may have to find temporary workers from clean areas.

At this point in time, our system is a complete balls up. Andrews had us locked down until as long as humanly possible because he has zero confidence of being to manage hotspots without it and that is the biggest concern, we haven't shown we are going to be able to handle it.
 

Kangapirate

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Yeah Andrews says we have to wait for tomorrow’s results, but say we have a fair few cases and unknown transmission, so what? We are always going to have outbreaks, we are not going to be able to track down every case when we are open.

It’s not the cluster in the North that worries me, it’s the plan to actually live with this virus that concerns me, or lack of a plan.
 

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Themanbun

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I haven't been a fan of the 5km/25km restrictions but I find it odd that people so heavily spruiking local hotspot shutdowns (tried and failed, unfortunately) are so against them. If the 5km radius was adhered to I reckon that'd make hotspot closing much easier.

Having said that, I don't like the radial limits, but I also fear very localised shutdowns won't do the job.
 

Tectonic

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I'd actually appreciate a week's notice before hospitality opens up again. Many of my friends are anxious of their workplaces hurrying to open if Dan gives a go ahead for this week.

Not to mention other businesses that are employing chefs on stand down losing their staff immediately.
 

Tectonic

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I haven't been a fan of the 5km/25km restrictions but I find it odd that people so heavily spruiking local hotspot shutdowns (tried and failed, unfortunately) are so against them. If the 5km radius was adhered to I reckon that'd make hotspot closing much easier.

Having said that, I don't like the radial limits, but I also fear very localised shutdowns won't do the job.
5km is a lot more sensible than me in postcode 3003 being free to move while my neighbour across the street in 3051 is stuck at home, in my opinion.

It also has been a pretty reasonable way to limit social gatherings in my experience
 
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year of the roo

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I'd actually appreciate a week's notice before hospitality opens up again. Many of my friends are anxious of their workplaces hurrying to open if Dan gives a go ahead for this week.

Not to mention other businesses that are employing chefs on stand down losing their staff immediately.
Just cos Dan says you can open from Monday, doesn't mean you have to open on Monday. Open up when you're ready.
 

Tectonic

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Just cos Dan says you can open from Monday, doesn't mean you have to open on Monday. Open up when you're ready.
Tell that to the owners of these places.
If Dan says they can open, they'll be open. They aren't keeping chefs on jobkeeper at home if they can be making money from them instead
 

7577969923

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Tell that to the owners of these places.
If Dan says they can open, they'll be open. They aren't keeping chefs on jobkeeper at home if they can be making money from them instead
Fair enough too. I kind of think any chance that Dan was going to bring opening forward by a week is very, very slim, I think it more likely that tomorrow the advice will be that we will still reopen as planned but some conditions will be placed on it along the lines of as long as the Preston outbreak stays below X.
Hope the Mum who sent the kid to school is not feeling too bad and is getting a bit of support.
 

Tectonic

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Fair enough too. I kind of think any chance that Dan was going to bring opening forward by a week is very, very slim, I think it more likely that tomorrow the advice will be that we will still reopen as planned but some conditions will be placed on it along the lines of as long as the Preston outbreak stays below X.
Hope the Mum who sent the kid to school is not feeling too bad and is getting a bit of support.
Yeah I agree that it's an understandable approach but keep the workers in mind when you wait for that parma to come out to your table :)
 

7577969923

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Yeah I agree that it's an understandable approach but keep the workers in mind when you wait for that parma to come out to your table :)
Yep. As long as the beer is fresh I am happy to wait an extra 20 minutes or so. Keen to get a session in on the afternoon of the 4th as the US election results come in.

I'm in the wine business and advertised for a very part-time role recently and had so many really high calibre applicants who were struggling during the lockdown. I think plenty would start back tomorrow if they could.
 

Tectonic

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Yep. As long as the beer is fresh I am happy to wait an extra 20 minutes or so. Keen to get a session in on the afternoon of the 4th as the US election results come in.

I'm in the wine business and advertised for a very part-time role recently and had so many really high calibre applicants who were struggling during the lockdown. I think plenty would start back tomorrow if they could.
I'd describe the mood of my colleagues as keen but nervous. I think we would all be better off with a firm date, and a government confident in being able to manage that come what may
 

7577969923

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I'd describe the mood of my colleagues as keen but nervous. I think we would all be better off with a firm date, and a government confident in being able to manage that come what may
I can imagine the worst outcome would be you order in fresh kegs, perishable food, commit to staff based on the assumption you are opening and then you get pushed back a week. The frustration and extra financial loss would be devastating.
 

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Tectonic

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I can imagine the worst outcome would be you order in fresh kegs, perishable food, commit to staff based on the assumption you are opening and then you get pushed back a week. The frustration and extra financial loss would be devastating.
Same goes for suppliers down the chain too. Butchers can't have too much raw produce on hand "just in case"
 

year of the roo

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Run your business how you want to run it, but surely you assume that we're not opening next week. If it happens that you're given the green light to open early and you can, you open. Or you wait until it it's feasible. Not sure where the dilemma is, really.
 

Tectonic

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Run your business how you want to run it, but surely you assume that we're not opening next week. If it happens that you're given the green light to open early and you can, you open. Or you wait until it it's feasible. Not sure where the dilemma is, really.
The logistics behind hospitality are very delicate, everything takes time to scale up and down. Giving people 1 days warning before a free for all on opening as fast as possible is a massive crunch for all involved.
I'll be doing a few 14 hour days if the go ahead happens.
 

year of the roo

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The logistics behind hospitality are very delicate, everything takes time to scale up and down. Giving people 1 days warning before a free for all on opening as fast as possible is a massive crunch for all involved.
I'll be doing a few 14 hour days if the go ahead happens.
If you're not ready to open on day 1, then don't.

???
 

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