News Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III

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Themanbun

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Don't confuse science & scientists with the parasites of politics & the bureaucracy who pollute the discipline with their deviousness.
I'm referring specifically to Gupta, who via public statements started making blanket claims about economics and mental health way outside of the scope of her study, which was modelling best case scenario infection rates for the UK. This was going on last year. She is not an economist nor a mental health expert, and had not based those statements on data.

The panel I went to some years ago that I was referring to was definitely not anything to do with politics and bureaucracy. It was a convention of sports scientists and ego certainly got the better of one panellist there when he thought he could step outside of his area of expertise unchecked. And it was only a small step.

The scientific method is theoretically foolproof but the human error comes in with the scientists. Gupta does great work on infection rates, but if she wants to start talking economics then she better conduct a study and submit it for peer review by economists. I was just making the comment on the scientific method, that it works when people stick within their knowledge...but occasionally ego does take over and biases creep in and then you get a scientist on a panel trying to explain to another scientist on the same panel a position which he clearly had more idea about than the lay person, but not his expert peer. While we all sit there cringing as the man's ego wouldn't let him concede that he'd wandered too far from home.
 
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SimpkinByTheDockOfTheBay

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In March, Gupta and colleagues raised the possibility that half of the UK population had already been infected by Sars-CoV-2. This was subsequently shown to be false. In September she stated that the worst-case scenario presented by Whitty and Vallance, of 50,000 cases per day, was very likely wrong – but it has been proved largely right.
I make no comment on her scientific ability.

However she has made these kinds of calls before and been absolutely and completely wrong

 

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Snake_Baker

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I'm referring specifically to Gupta, who via public statements started making blanket claims about economics and mental health way outside of the scope of her study, which was modelling best case scenario infection rates for the UK.

This was going on last year. She is not an economist nor a mental health expert, and had not based those statements on data.
I don't care about that, and I am not utilising that. It's irrelevant.

The panel I went to some years ago that I was referring to was definitely not anything to do with politics and bureaucracy. It was a convention of sports scientists and ego certainly got the better of one panellist there when he thought he could step outside of his area of expertise unchecked. And it was only a small step.
The person was obviously a fraud and paid the price of public embarrassment.....................because scientists revealed their fallacies.

Science does its job again.

As for "sports scientists"........we're starting to enter the fringes of the discipline. It's somewhat polluted by the humanities.

The scientific method is theoretically foolproof but the human error comes in with the scientists.
A bit of a ridiculous statement there, as the SM exists solely because it acknowledges that fact.
 

SimpkinByTheDockOfTheBay

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Science does its job again.
Science has indeed done its job in the last 12 months.

The development and roll out of vaccines has been nothing short of astounding. It should be considered the equivalent of the Moon Landing.

You however are idolising a politically motivated researcher here who has been proven wrong on this issue multiple times, as evidenced above.

You are doing this for political reasons - you disliked the Andrews govt before COVID, and are now cherry picking data to try and support your ideological view of them.

Basically, what you accuse others of doing every second post.
 

Themanbun

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I don't care about that, and I am not utilising that. It's irrelevant.



The person was obviously a fraud and paid the price of public embarrassment.....................because scientists revealed their fallacies.

Science does its job again.

As for "sports scientists"........we're starting to enter the fringes of the discipline. It's somewhat polluted by the humanities.



A bit of a ridiculous statement there, as the SM exists solely because it acknowledges that fact.
I'm referring mostly to this comment:

"If you had a real clue about science you would know that this claim is counterintuitive to how an actual scientist conducts themselves."

She is an actual scientist and at times has veered faaaaaar out of her lane and conducted herself in a way not befitting of her expertise. Maybe you are right, she may pay the price of public embarassment one day for doing so. If the SM does her job, then it's only a matter of time.
 

Snake_Baker

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I'm referring mostly to this comment:

"If you had a real clue about science you would know that this claim is counterintuitive to how an actual scientist conducts themselves."
Yes, conclusions from people with no real sense of context.

She is an actual scientist and at times has veered faaaaaar out of her lane and conducted herself in a way not befitting of her expertise.
Mate, I DGAF about her opinions on football, easter eggs, pizza toppings or her favorite color.

You're missing the point.
 

SimpkinByTheDockOfTheBay

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Mate, I DGAF about her opinions on football, easter eggs, pizza toppings or her favorite color.

You're missing the point.
The point is she's already made several claims about COVID in the UK has been proven demonstrably wrong.

Perhaps this claim is not wrong, perhaps it is entirely accurate.

Her track record so far is not strong though.
 

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7577969923

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Yep.

But you won't hear boo from the whinging panic merchants like Smoocher and shimaburnsgrieg and co
It is important to have a rational and objective analysis after the fact. I wouldn't expect them to make that public without a serious political spin but I would hope behind closed doors that is what they are doing.

Based on the evidence that is publicly available there is a chance that the lockdown had zero impact on containing the cluster. Not because lockdowns don't work but because it does appear that the spread of the virus was completely contained within the known cohort of close contacts of the hotel quarantine workers and were all isolated at the time they tested positive. It seems likely that the lockdown wasn't needed in this case. Of course, I understand that is hindsight.

There was obviously something happening the led to the politicians and medical bureaucracy not being confident that the contact tracing team had the outbreak under control which in turn led them to impose the lockdown. I would hope that the events of the last week have convinced them that contact tracing can do the trick and that perhaps there is no need to impose a lockdown until there is evidence it has breached the contact tracing containment ring. I know a lot of people will say it is just a few days but it still has a massive impact for a lot of people and an ongoing impact on business and consumer confidence.

Good old Smoocher. Frames every post in a way that even if he did have valid points to make, no one would take him seriously at all.
 

SimpkinByTheDockOfTheBay

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It is important to have a rational and objective analysis after the fact. I wouldn't expect them to make that public without a serious political spin but I would hope behind closed doors that is what they are doing.

Based on the evidence that is publicly available there is a chance that the lockdown had zero impact on containing the cluster. Not because lockdowns don't work but because it does appear that the spread of the virus was completely contained within the known cohort of close contacts of the hotel quarantine workers and were all isolated at the time they tested positive. It seems likely that the lockdown wasn't needed in this case. Of course, I understand that is hindsight.

There was obviously something happening the led to the politicians and medical bureaucracy not being confident that the contact tracing team had the outbreak under control which in turn led them to impose the lockdown. I would hope that the events of the last week have convinced them that contact tracing can do the trick and that perhaps there is no need to impose a lockdown until there is evidence it has breached the contact tracing containment ring. I know a lot of people will say it is just a few days but it still has a massive impact for a lot of people and an ongoing impact on business and consumer confidence.

Good old Smoocher. Frames every post in a way that even if he did have valid points to make, no one would take him seriously at all.
The lockdown was clearly precautionary due to the nature of the new strain.

Which is why we did what Brisbane and Perth had done in that regard.
 

Sopwiths North

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There is no politics on display about the Covid mutations here in Canada. We get almost daily updates here from epidemiologists, immunologists, and doctors, and the general consensus from them is that the mutated strains are more transmissible, particularly the UK one. Canadian doctors, epidemiologists, and immunologists are currently warning that Canada stands very likely to see a third wave because of this.

There's also been a fair degree of experiential medical anecdote out of Brazil and South Africa about vaccines having impaired efficacy against those strains.

This is how viruses behave though. And our predicament is highly fluid. I'm not sure why anyone would think there's some other agenda involved.
 

Snake_Baker

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There is no politics on display about the Covid mutations here in Canada.
L

O

L

We get almost daily updates here from epidemiologists, immunologists, and doctors, and the general consensus from them is that the mutated strains are more transmissible, particularly the UK one. Canadian doctors, epidemiologists, and immunologists are currently warning that Canada stands very likely to see a third wave because of this.
Present the scientific data.

There's also been a fair degree of experiential medical anecdote out of Brazil and South Africa about vaccines having impaired efficacy against those strains.
Present the scientific data.

This is how viruses behave though.
No, it isn't.
 

Snake_Baker

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The vast majority of talk about "strains" is horseshit, and virtually all of the research is hypothetical.

Covid 19 is a lot more complex than people think and the pre-existing immunity of T cell responses is starting to gain more traction.

Here's some actual data. Read more:



 

Themanbun

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There is no politics on display about the Covid mutations here in Canada. We get almost daily updates here from epidemiologists, immunologists, and doctors, and the general consensus from them is that the mutated strains are more transmissible, particularly the UK one. Canadian doctors, epidemiologists, and immunologists are currently warning that Canada stands very likely to see a third wave because of this.

There's also been a fair degree of experiential medical anecdote out of Brazil and South Africa about vaccines having impaired efficacy against those strains.

This is how viruses behave though. And our predicament is highly fluid. I'm not sure why anyone would think there's some other agenda involved.
Prof. Allen Cheng, Victoria's Deputy CHO (who people seem to ignore when they sling crap at the CHO's office), did outline something similar to Snake, saying that it could be that this variant was involved in a superspreader event earlier than other variant, or that it initially popped up in places where human behaviour is less compliant and conservative.

He said:
“For example, it could be simply the strain that was involved in a super-spreading event, or spreading in a part of the country where restrictions are less strict or less adhered to,” Cheng said. “Higher viral loads could reflect detection earlier in the illness.”

But, he did note that we need to watch it cautiously and it will take a long time to get the data we need to form a consensus.

I think that is the issue that many people seem to underappreciate. There is a lag between when a political decision needs to be made, and when the science can confirm whether or not it was the right decision. The risk of doing nothing and then finding out in six months or a year that doing nothing was disastrous is probably one that I suspect we wouldn't be happy with as constituents, and is a risk that I'm glad our politicians, across the whole country and of all stripes, haven't been willing to take.

So they take their cues from advisors and their advisors often take their cues from anecdotal experiences across the medical world. This might lead to a "this is a space to watch" type concern for medical professionals across the world and they relay this to the decision makers.

It's not foolproof but we've had a lot of success in achieving our desired approach in Australia, across governments of all stripes (NSW reeling in a couple that could have got away, Queensland and WA leading the pack). With some mixed results in Victoria.

Time will tell whether or not our chosen strategy as a nation was the correct one, but that's a risk political decision makers face every time they make a decision. I'm not a big fan of politicians but it's certainly not a job I envy in times of national, state, or worldwide crisis. They frequently have to make decisions rapidly based upon a wide range of predictions, and don't have the luxury of retrospectively making decisions once the study design, study, drafting and then peer review process is complete.
 

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