News Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III

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Snake_Baker

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But, he did note that we need to watch it cautiously and it will take a long time to get the data we need to form a consensus.
This is a dangerous word to utilise in a true scientific context.

I think that is the issue that many people seem to underappreciate. There is a lag between when a political decision needs to be made, and when the science can confirm whether or not it was the right decision.
If you're claiming that a significant issue is about the tail wagging the dog, then I would conclude that you are correct.
 

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Sopwiths North

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Prof. Allen Cheng, Victoria's Deputy CHO (who people seem to ignore when they sling crap at the CHO's office), did outline something similar to Snake, saying that it could be that this variant was involved in a superspreader event earlier than other variant, or that it initially popped up in places where human behaviour is less compliant and conservative.

He said:
“For example, it could be simply the strain that was involved in a super-spreading event, or spreading in a part of the country where restrictions are less strict or less adhered to,” Cheng said. “Higher viral loads could reflect detection earlier in the illness.”

But, he did note that we need to watch it cautiously and it will take a long time to get the data we need to form a consensus.

I think that is the issue that many people seem to underappreciate. There is a lag between when a political decision needs to be made, and when the science can confirm whether or not it was the right decision. The risk of doing nothing and then finding out in six months or a year that doing nothing was disastrous is probably one that I suspect we wouldn't be happy with as constituents, and is a risk that I'm glad our politicians, across the whole country and of all stripes, haven't been willing to take.

So they take their cues from advisors and their advisors often take their cues from anecdotal experiences across the medical world. This might lead to a "this is a space to watch" type concern for medical professionals across the world and they relay this to the decision makers.

It's not foolproof but we've had a lot of success in achieving our desired approach in Australia, across governments of all stripes (NSW reeling in a couple that could have got away, Queensland and WA leading the pack). With some mixed results in Victoria.

Time will tell whether or not our chosen strategy as a nation was the correct one, but that's a risk political decision makers face every time they make a decision. I'm not a big fan of politicians but it's certainly not a job I envy in times of national, state, or worldwide crisis. They frequently have to make decisions rapidly based upon a wide range of predictions, and don't have the luxury of retrospectively making decisions once the study design, study, drafting and then peer review process is complete.
I think the picture here is quite different to Australia though, TMB. We're past super-spreader events holding much meaning here really. The virus has become a part of daily life for the last year. We're currently sitting at 843,000 cases and 21,630 deaths. We've got all three variants here now - UK, South African, and Brazil. The UK variant is spreading rapidly, and based on the data it does appear to be more easily transmissible. For example Newfoundland and Labrador are two provinces that have been relatively virus-free for most of the pandemic, but are now seeing cases in the triple digits since the UK variant was identified there.

The science right now in our country is predicting a third wave due in large part to how quickly the UK variant has been spreading here. This is based on modeling data produced by scientists. It's not a political position.

Viruses mutate in order to survive. This is not a surprising development, nor is it part of a political agenda. Right now in Canada, our scientists and doctors are concerned that the UK variant will cause a third wave here, based on their modeling data. And that message to the country is coming directly from them, not from our politicians.
 

Themanbun

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I think the picture here is quite different to Australia though, TMB. We're past super-spreader events holding much meaning here really. The virus has become a part of daily life for the last year. We're currently sitting at 843,000 cases and 21,630 deaths. We've got all three variants here now - UK, South African, and Brazil. The UK variant is spreading rapidly, and based on the data it does appear to be more easily transmissible. For example Newfoundland and Labrador are two provinces that have been relatively virus-free for most of the pandemic, but are now seeing cases in the triple digits since the UK variant was identified there.

The science right now in our country is predicting a third wave due in large part to how quickly the UK variant has been spreading here. This is based on modeling data produced by scientists. It's not a political position.

Viruses mutate in order to survive. This is not a surprising development, nor is it part of a political agenda. Right now in Canada, our scientists and doctors are concerned that the UK variant will cause a third wave here, based on their modeling data. And that message to the country is coming directly from them, not from our politicians.
I think Prof. Cheng's point was not that what you are saying is incorrect, but that we don't have enough evidence to prove it correct, and the observations we've made have been unable thus far to control for differences in human behaviour which can wildly affect outcomes.

Given he and Sutton have been advising the government, I infer that he sees it as a 'watch this space' scenario and the government are treating it with am abundance of caution, just to be safe. He's not saying it's all political and he's not saying one way or the other what is true. That's what I took from his comments anyway.
 

Sopwiths North

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It's not foolproof but we've had a lot of success in achieving our desired approach in Australia, across governments of all stripes (NSW reeling in a couple that could have got away, Queensland and WA leading the pack). With some mixed results in Victoria.

Time will tell whether or not our chosen strategy as a nation was the correct one, but that's a risk political decision makers face every time they make a decision. I'm not a big fan of politicians but it's certainly not a job I envy in times of national, state, or worldwide crisis. They frequently have to make decisions rapidly based upon a wide range of predictions, and don't have the luxury of retrospectively making decisions once the study design, study, drafting and then peer review process is complete.
And I can tell you right now that the approach you guys have taken as a nation is the correct one. You only have to look at the numbers across the rest of the world to know that.

Some of the whinging I've read about it in this thread is bizarre, frankly. You guys are in a very good place because of how you've been handling things.
 

Themanbun

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And I can tell you right now that the approach you guys have taken as a nation is the correct one. You only have to look at the numbers across the rest of the world to know that.

Some of the whinging I've read about it in this thread is bizarre, frankly. You guys are in a very good place because of how you've been handling things.
Yep, I was on the elimination or aggressive suppression bandwagon since day dot, having seen what this thing had done to relatives across the globe.
 

koshari

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More on pre-existing immunity factors

View attachment 1062085

Bit of a moot point really with regard to a vaccine rollout, the logistics and expense of testing every single candidate for said cells would be complex and unlikely to be able to be conducted in a timeline and then have the data correlated and integrated into the rollout scheme would be a nightmare if even plausible.
 

Snake_Baker

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Bit of a moot point really with regard to a vaccine rollout, the logistics and expense of testing every single candidate for said cells would be complex and unlikely to be able to be conducted in a timeline and then have the data correlated and integrated into the rollout scheme would be a nightmare if even plausible.

Yeah, it would only correlate infection profiles and save lives by directing resources to the identified vulnerable.

A hair brained idea.
 

koshari

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Yeah, it would only correlate infection profiles and save lives by directing resources to the identified vulnerable.

A hair brained idea.
I dont even know what your saying here, let alone the relevance to my statement, feel free to enlighten me in laymans terms.
 

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SimpkinByTheDockOfTheBay

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And there is an argument that both Perth and Brisbane overreacted and their lockdowns weren't necessary.
Given the other side of that argument is ohhhh its has got out and now thousands are dead, actually sorry guys, we were wrong, we should have locked down, it isn't really an argument for mine.
 

gokangas

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Well folks, if you were outraged about the recent lockdown, you're gunna be even more enraged by the feds not training the cheapo contract doctors they've hired to give the vaccines properly.

Right?
Training? You put the required dose in the syringe, put the needle in the patients arm, push the plunger, put a smilie bandaid on the arm, give them a chuppa chup. Training? FFS.
 

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