News Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V

[big_e]

Let the record show that the COVID outbreak which is just getting going in Perth grew out of three rub and tug joints.

And in news that is totally unrelated, two FIFO workers have tested positive at the airport as the head back to work.

 

[krakouers]

And in news that is totally unrelated, two FIFO workers have tested positive at the airport as the head back to work.

How Langtrees is still running unaffected stumps me…

 

[Val Keating]

What’s the read from the WA folks about the Premier refusing to open up the boarder when promised?

 

[krakouers]

What’s the read from the WA folks about the Premier refusing to open up the boarder when promised?

“Respondents to a Perth Now poll have overwhelmingly said WA Premier Mark McGowan should have been ready to open the borders by February 5.

Conducted on Friday morning following Mr McGowan’s late-night press conference, readers had their say on the shock decision to delay the reopening — with no new fixed date announced.

As at 6pm on Friday, more than 1300 people said “yes” when asked: “Do you think the Premier should have had WA ready to open by February 5?”.
While about 550 disagreed that the State’s health system should have been prepared.”

West Aussies slam McGowan’s not ready ‘excuse’

West Aussies overwhelmingly said WA Premier Mark McGowan should have been ready to open the borders by February 5, according to a PerthNow poll.

thewest.com.au

Think it’s a bit closer than that though

 

[Val Keating]

“Respondents to a Perth Now poll have overwhelmingly said WA Premier Mark McGowan should have been ready to open the borders by February 5.

Conducted on Friday morning following Mr McGowan’s late-night press conference, readers had their say on the shock decision to delay the reopening — with no new fixed date announced.

As at 6pm on Friday, more than 1300 people said “yes” when asked: “Do you think the Premier should have had WA ready to open by February 5?”.
While about 550 disagreed that the State’s health system should have been prepared.”

West Aussies slam McGowan’s not ready ‘excuse’

West Aussies overwhelmingly said WA Premier Mark McGowan should have been ready to open the borders by February 5, according to a PerthNow poll.

thewest.com.au

Think it’s a bit closer than that though

Copping a lot of flack on Twitter, but Twitter is very negative in general…so is the media. Makes it really hard to tell from Melbourne.

I have family in WA and I know they’re not happy but that’s probably because they travel a lot for work and they haven’t been able to see anyone from interstate for a couple of years.

 

[krakouers]

Copping a lot of flack on Twitter, but Twitter is very negative in general…so is the media. Makes it really hard to tell from Melbourne.

I have family in WA and I know they’re not happy but that’s probably because they travel a lot for work and they haven’t been able to see anyone from interstate for a couple of years.

Leaving it indefinitely is the worst thing, people generally want to reopen up, public heath still having issues though

 

[koshari]

the fact that is stil makes the news when someone records a posative in WA speaks volumes of the problem they face, here and NSW really only had groundswell movement of people getting vaxxed when the numbers began to rise.

i suspect it will be the same over there, people are reluctent to get vaxxed untill they see that its on their doorstep.

 

[krakouers]

the fact that is stil makes the news when someone records a posative in WA speaks volumes of the problem they face, here and NSW really only had groundswell movement of people getting vaxxed when the numbers began to rise.

i suspect it will be the same over there, people are reluctent to get vaxxed untill they see that its on their doorstep.

It’s not too bad, getting close to 90% (which was the initial target) by Feb 5
I thought we are close to about 84/85% double vaxxed at the latest figures
Trouble is, it’s the booster numbers that he wants increased to deal with it and that may take much longer

 

[Val Keating]

It’s not too bad, getting close to 90% (which was the initial target) by Feb 5
I thought we are close to about 84/85% double vaxxed at the latest figures
Trouble is, it’s the booster numbers that he wants increased to deal with it and that may take much longer

So they are legit waiting for booster shots? That’s over the top. From a distance it looks like they’re too scared to make a decision but they’re only delaying the inevitable.

The virus will get there and it will run through the community unless they shut off from the rest of the world forever.

 

[krakouers]

So they are legit waiting for booster shots? That’s over the top. From a distance it looks like they’re too scared to make a decision but they’re only delaying the inevitable.

The virus will get there and it will run through the community unless they shut off from the rest of the world forever.

Hence the reason for that poll result… it has been mentioned that exemptions will be increased as we have some terrible labour shortages here

 

[Makeshift Park]

There's a few Federal seats in the hermit kingdom up for grabs.

It'll be fascinating to see whether that McGowan-driven support for Labor in WA sticks around for the election.

 

[Tas]

I am guessing it is based on hospital data, that would be data you could rely on... assuming the number of who get more serious symptoms is fairly consistent you could extrapolate backwards from those coming into hospital what the effective spread is in the community. Of course, this would be subject to anomalies like a nursing home being exposed triggering a lot of serious infections in a concentrated group of vulnerable people.

At the end of Dec we had 428 in Hospital, 54 in ICU and 21 on Vents
7th Jan we had 644, 106 and 24
14th Jan we had 976, 112 and 30
21st Jan we have 1096, 121 and 34

We kind of peaked on the 17th/18th with highs of 1229 in hospital, 129 in ICU and 43 on Vents before coming down. We should note the number coming down would be a combination of recoveries and deaths vs new infection. We did have a lot of deaths though.

They have mentioned there is lag time with deaths as a lot of those that fall badly ill are in ICU for some time before passing away so deaths will tend to go up for a while after the peak before declining and following the curve.

Since the end of December we have seen deaths for the week hit +10 for 7 Jan, +92 for 14th and +109 for 21st. Without the benefit of hindsight, I think we will know we are slowing down when the death rate starts to decline over a period of time, we should have a good idea where we are at by mid Feb.

Quoting my own post as I can't be bothered reproducing the data in it...

22nd has seen those hospitalised drop to 1029, ICU to 120 and Vents to 39. Had 20 deaths. It is the lowest number in hospital since 14th of Jan.

The number of active cases is probably as accurate as China's covid numbers, there was a big negative adjustment on the 20th by 153,851 down to 99,976 active cases and a further reduction on 21st to 99,408. They don't have the numbers for today. With RATs hard to come by currently makes it an unreliable stat at the moment.

 

[krakouers]

There's a few Federal seats in the hermit kingdom up for grabs.

It'll be fascinating to see whether that McGowan-driven support for Labor in WA sticks around for the election.

He’s still up close to 80% approval, this will cost him though… won’t be a massive swing to Lab in WA

 

[Val Keating]

He’s still up close to 80% approval, this will cost him though… won’t be a massive swing to Lab in WA

80%? Wow.

 

[krakouers]

80%? Wow.

77% at last poll… that was in December … at one point he was at 87%

 

[SonofSamsquanch]

77% at last poll… that was in December … at one point he was at 87%

Josh Frydenburg is launching an attack so that will get that 77 back up over 80% for sure.

 

[koshari]

Josh Frydenburg is launching an attack so that will get that 77 back up over 80% for sure.

labor could do well if they could get dutts over there as well,

 

[krakouers]

labor could do well if they could get dutts over there as well,

I knew we kept those borders up for a reason… it was to keep Dutton out

 

[Hojuman]

Numbers dropping steadily here in Vic.
Hopefully not alot around when kids go back to school.

 

[gokangas]

Numbers dropping steadily here in Vic.
Hopefully not alot around when kids go back to school.

I reckon numbers are at least double whats reported. So many people testing at home and not reporting positives. Have a few friends who tested positive after a Qld holiday but didn't register - reckon there are heaps the same.

 

[Kangapirate]

I reckon numbers are at least double whats reported. So many people testing at home and not reporting positives. Have a few friends who tested positive after a Qld holiday but didn't register - reckon there are heaps the same.

Yeah I went online and reported my parents infections, if I hadn’t done it for them they’d have no clue, would be so many elderly especially those who don’t have English as a first language who wouldn’t be reporting, that’s on top of those who don’t give a s sh1t lol.

in terms of official numbers it’s looking like around 5-6k cases a day when kids go back, I dare say it will plateau at a number around that or just less, nothing like a few weeks ago but still very problematic for schools, and the real number will of course be a little higher.

Combination of schools returning and the shadow lockdown winding down will start pushing the reff back up again.

 

[gokangas]

Yeah I went online and reported my parents infections, if I hadn’t done it for them they’d have no clue, would be so many elderly especially those who don’t have English as a first language who wouldn’t be reporting, that’s on top of those who don’t give a s sh1t lol.

in terms of official numbers it’s looking like around 5-6k cases a day when kids go back, I dare say it will plateau at a number around that or just less, nothing like a few weeks ago but still very problematic for schools, and the real number will of course be a little higher.

Combination of schools returning and the shadow lockdown winding down will start pushing the reff back up again.

PR strategy at its best - what we don’t know won’t hurt us. I know at last 4 families who have it and none have registered. All doing ISO which is good, but not registering.

 

[gokangas]

How many days before your sympoms emerge would your exposure have been and when during that time would you be contageous?

 

[Caracas]

Given Europe has advised that Australians shouldn’t be allowed in there, I reckon McGowan can claim he has a leg to stand on again…


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[ferball]

How many days before your sympoms emerge would your exposure have been and when during that time would you be contageous?

Was five days originally. Maybe four with Delta and 2-3 with Omicron but its not really clear.

I think you became infectious within 2 days originally and were at peak infectiousness after three days - a day or two before symptoms became obvious.