Coronavirus/COVID-19

dogwatch

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If he tests positive, that opens up a whole other can of worms..
It's not "if" but when this will happen. All clubs will be affected soon enough.

It's not all that likely that players will get dangerously ill but the quarantine period will probably be enforced. It'll start to get interesting when half the list is in quarantine. An entire list in precautionary quarantine is even a possibility.

This will be a very unpredictable season.
 

Sentinel

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It's not "if" but when this will happen. All clubs will be affected soon enough.

It's not all that likely that players will get dangerously ill but the quarantine period will probably be enforced. It'll start to get interesting when half the list is in quarantine. An entire list in precautionary quarantine is even a possibility.

This will be a very unpredictable season.
It is as good as certain that this season will be severely impacted by the situation, and very likely in the first weeks rather than later in the year. You only need to look at Serie A to see how quickly they can and should shut things down. IMO the season is a very strong chance to be cancelled entirely at some point given the peak in Australia is expected around August.

More broadly, we're in for a long and chaotic 6+ months which hopefully the 'just a flu' crowd are beginning to understand. Sport is going to be absolutely secondary to the impact this is going to have on the way we live our lives over the coming period.
 
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Pugz89

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It's not "if" but when this will happen. All clubs will be affected soon enough.

It's not all that likely that players will get dangerously ill but the quarantine period will probably be enforced. It'll start to get interesting when half the list is in quarantine. An entire list in precautionary quarantine is even a possibility.

This will be a very unpredictable season.
Quarantine is only 14 days, so should only impact two, maybe three rounds. This whole panic though is getting a bit absurd imo. The fatality rate is barely above the common flu and it is the elderly people who are at most risk of suffering the worst.
 

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dogwatch

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Quarantine is only 14 days, so should only impact two, maybe three rounds. This whole panic though is getting a bit absurd imo. The fatality rate is barely above the common flu and it is the elderly people who are at most risk of suffering the worst.
Absurd or not, you only need to look at the response of governments in Italy, China and elsewhere to see how drastically the authorities are responding to it. I think it's pretty fair to say we haven't seen the like of it in our lifetimes.

So choosing a course of action might not even be up to the AFL. Their hand may be forced by government.

As for quarantine being only 14 days (the currently accepted period) that can still have a massive effect, whether it hits an entire list at one time or works on a rolling basis depending on who shows symptoms or had contact with someone sick.

And people who proved not to be infected after a first round of quarantine could find themselves isolated for a second period if/when they come into contact with another person testing positive to COVID-19.

I'm no epidemiologist, so my observations are not about the rightness or wrongness of the response to the disease. They are from watching how people, markets, governments and sporting bodies are already behaving.
 

Sentinel

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Quarantine is only 14 days, so should only impact two, maybe three rounds. This whole panic though is getting a bit absurd imo. The fatality rate is barely above the common flu and it is the elderly people who are at most risk of suffering the worst.
2-3 rounds is barely a possibility if everyone in the country gets it at the exact same time, which obviously won't happen.

The fatality rate as we currently know it is significantly higher than the flu, in addition to the R0 value, and the difference is that we have no herd immunity or vaccine to stop it spreading. Assuming you are in good health, you are highly unlikely to be even hospitalised by it, but a huge number of sick and elderly people are going to require a stay in ICU and very likely at a similar time to each other.

Like pretty much everywhere around the world our health system is ill-equipped to deal with such a sudden influx of critical patients and for this reason heavy measures are being put in place in an attempt to control/slow the spread. This impacts travel, work and supply chains and is not going to just be an overnight hindrance. Unfortunately, a lot of people in Australia are going to die (many who would survive a flu in a health system which is not overloaded) and a whole lot more are going to be hit hard by this, it is completely inevitable.
 

Mattdougie

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Quarantine is only 14 days, so should only impact two, maybe three rounds. This whole panic though is getting a bit absurd imo. The fatality rate is barely above the common flu and it is the elderly people who are at most risk of suffering the worst.
It’s not above the common flu rate at all

It’s just that a very high percentage that have been tested(that is extraordinarily low) have tested positive which is skewing the figures.
The only people being tested are people who have a high chance of already having it. It’s like tested all obese people over 40 and finding a high percentage of diabetes them screaming epidemic.

I’ve no more than 5 mins ago read a report in the time’s that states exactly this. I’m sure someone will call me a liar but google this and use your common sense. It is yet to kill ONE SINGLE young healthy person

And I’m in no means trying to say it’s not an issue but closing the world down when it really is only effecting the old and sick is ridiculous, why don’t they have them quarantined and the rest of the world can carry on? What is really going on here coz this makes zero logical sense? And if it’s so bad why not close every bloody border until it’s dealt with?
 
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Mattdougie

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I have a month holiday booked in late April and every one I’ve spoken to said there is still no reason not to go.
 

Virgin Dog

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It’s not above the common flu rate at all

It’s just that a very high percentage that have been tested(that is extraordinarily low) have tested positive which is skewing the figures.
The only people being tested are people who have a high chance of already having it. It’s like tested all obese people over 40 and finding a high percentage of diabetes them screaming epidemic.

I’ve no more than 5 mins ago read a report in the time’s that states exactly this. I’m sure someone will call me a liar but google this and use your common sense. It is yet to kill ONE SINGLE young healthy person

And I’m in no means trying to say it’s not an issue but closing the world down when it really is only effecting the old and sick is ridiculous, why don’t they have them quarantined and the rest of the world can carry on? What is really going on here coz this makes zero logical sense? And if it’s so bad why not close every bloody border until it’s dealt with?
You're pretty much correct on that. This predominantly hits retirees who are far more likely to already be suffering from other health issues. The below data is a little behind, but should be proportionally similar as of right now. Also worth mentioning that experts believe the death rate will continue to come down as they identify more and more mild cases. In the early stages of the disease, we knew nothing about it, and struggled to identify the less clear-cut cases

AGE​
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities
I'm not sure how many otherwise healthy people have died of the disease, but it's pretty well established by now that the main people at threat are those who are already vulnerable (i.e. already sick, elderly, previously had serious health issues like cancer, etc.)
 

Sentinel

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It’s not above the common flu rate at all

It’s just that a very high percentage that have been tested(that is extraordinarily low) have tested positive which is skewing the figures.
The only people being tested are people who have a high chance of already having it. It’s like tested all obese people over 40 and finding a high percentage of diabetes them screaming epidemic.

I’ve no more than 5 mins ago read a report in the time’s that states exactly this. I’m sure someone will call me a liar but google this and use your common sense. It is yet to kill ONE SINGLE young healthy person

And I’m in no means trying to say it’s not an issue but closing the world down when it really is only effecting the old and sick is ridiculous, why don’t they have them quarantined and the rest of the world can carry on? What is really going on here coz this makes zero logical sense? And if it’s so bad why not close every bloody border until it’s dealt with?
I can't understand this attitude of it 'doesn't affect me, only the sick and elderly, so lock them away and carry on'. The death rate is not currently fully understood and is likely to be overstated, but on the flip side the infection/spread rate is likely to be equally understated.

What we do know is that this disease is spreading fast and does require a lot of hospital beds. Our healthcare system simply will not cope will the influx and there is a huge flow on effect to those who need the system for other non-coronavirus related issues.

I'm not saying go out and hoard toilet paper like a lot of the selfish morons have done over the past week, but measures being put in place in countries like Italy, which will follow here, are responsible and necessary.
 

Mattdougie

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You're pretty much correct on that. This predominantly hits retirees who are far more likely to already be suffering from other health issues. The below data is a little behind, but should be proportionally similar as of right now. Also worth mentioning that experts believe the death rate will continue to come down as they identify more and more mild cases. In the early stages of the disease, we knew nothing about it, and struggled to identify the less clear-cut cases

AGE​
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities
I'm not sure how many otherwise healthy people have died of the disease, but it's pretty well established by now that the main people at threat are those who are already vulnerable (i.e. already sick, elderly, previously had serious health issues like cancer, etc.)
It’s also worth noting that anyone that dies that does test positive is automatically counted as a death from Coronavirus when they simply could have just passed away at an old age
 

Mattdougie

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I can't understand this attitude of it 'doesn't affect me, only the sick and elderly, so lock them away and carry on'. The death rate is not currently fully understood and is likely to be overstated, but on the flip side the infection/spread rate is likely to be equally understated.

What we do know is that this disease is spreading fast and does require a lot of hospital beds. Our healthcare system simply will not cope will the influx and there is a huge flow on effect to those who need the system for other non-coronavirus related issues.

I'm not saying go out and hoard toilet paper like a lot of the selfish morons have done over the past week, but measures being put in place in countries like Italy, which will follow here, are responsible and necessary.

Sorry I disagree totally

You don’t close down civilisation because a flu is detrimental to a certain demographic when the reality NOW is it’s too late to stop.

There is more going on here than we are aware of and it still makes zero sense that all travel from China wasn’t closed immediately seeing they have been aware of this since January.

And the death rate is not overstated in fact it’s way above the actual rate as the Times explained and I mentioned above. You can’t pinpoint test only people with a high chance of being positive and then say the rate is high.
 

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Virgin Dog

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MD - check your travel insurance.
Unfortunately, most travel insurance will not cover you when plans are altered by infectious diseases or pandemics. Many people are being left out of pocket. Everyone should still check their travel insurance, but should also be aware that from here onwards, there's likely 0 coverage for anything relating to the Coronavirus unless you bought the insurance ages ago
 

Sentinel

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Sorry I disagree totally

You don’t close down civilisation because a flu is detrimental to a certain demographic when the reality NOW is it’s too late to stop.

There is more going on here than we are aware of and it still makes zero sense that all travel from China wasn’t closed immediately seeing they have been aware of this since January.
OK so its too late and we just let it run its course? See how that works come April/May when half the country has contracted it at once and we have a 10000% demand for ICU beds.

Civilisation is not being closed down, but it is being impacted. If that means restricting travel for non-necessary means and maybe cancelling some football games, then so be it. It's a huge inconvenience but the alternative is worse.

As for the conspiracy theories, I'll leave that up to the tinfoil hat brigade.
 

Mattdougie

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Unfortunately, most travel insurance will not cover you when plans are altered by infectious diseases or pandemics. Many people are being left out of pocket. Everyone should still check their travel insurance, but should also be aware that from here onwards, there's likely 0 coverage for anything relating to the Coronavirus unless you bought the insurance ages ago
Slightly incorrect

If I decide to cancel because I’m sacred or concerned I will lose all my money.

If borders are closed or cancelled my insurance covers me from all events
 

Virgin Dog

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Slightly incorrect

If I decide to cancel because I’m sacred or concerned I will lose all my money.

If borders are closed or cancelled my insurance covers me from all events
That's good. I've seen some insurers are literally not covering you even if your flights are cancelled out of your control (i.e. you can't reclaim money from the rest of your holiday). It will differ between insurers of course
 

Mattdougie

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OK so its too late and we just let it run its course? See how that works come April/May when half the country has contracted it at once and we have a 10000% demand for ICU beds.

Civilisation is not being closed down, but it is being impacted. If that means restricting travel for non-necessary means and maybe cancelling some football games, then so be it. It's a huge inconvenience but the alternative is worse.

As for the conspiracy theories, I'll leave that up to the tinfoil hat brigade.
If you aren’t old and/or so ck there is more chance of you dying of the common flu so why do we all need to be locked up and not just the people it will effect ? Surely these people should be doing that of their own accord already?

If I’m a very low chance of ended up in the hospital bed why am I staying inside? This logic is just baffling to me If I’m honest.
 

Sentinel

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That's good. I've seen some insurers are literally not covering you even if your flights are cancelled out of your control (i.e. you can't reclaim money from the rest of your holiday). It will differ between insurers of course
Most (if not all) airlines will refund automatically if they are cancelling the flights themselves, or otherwise perhaps issue a credit. If you have an upcoming flight that you want to cancel you're better off waiting until the last minute to do it, you don't gain anything by cancelling flights early.
 

Sentinel

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If you aren’t old and/or so ck there is more chance of you dying of the common flu so why do we all need to be locked up and not just the people it will effect ? Surely these people should be doing that of their own accord already?

If I’m a very low chance of ended up in the hospital bed why am I staying inside? This logic is just baffling to me If I’m honest.
1. As we currently understand, there is not more chance of you dying of the common flu than the coronavirus. Current WHO estimates are 3.4% motality rate for COVID-19 vs I think 0.1% for flu. As we know that figure for coronavirus is likely to drop but I'm curious to hear on what basis you think the flu is more deadly, unless you know more about this than WHO?
2. Vaccinations and a level of herd immunity exist for the flu, which spreads with an R0 of approx 1.3. No vaccinations and no herd immunity currently exist for the coronavirus which has an estimated (potentially understated) R0 of 2-3, which means it spreads a hell of a lot easier than the flu does.
3. You cannot simply cut off a significant proportion of the population entirely, particularly those who are most in need of assistance from others.
4. You are staying inside to prevent spreading it to people who are likely to end up critically ill or dying from the disease. Because those vulnerable people cannot currently be vaccinated to protect themselves. And those vulnerable people are faced with an overloaded healthcare system that won't be able to look after them if they do catch it.
5. The world does not only revolve around young and healthy people.
 

Virgin Dog

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Most (if not all) airlines will refund automatically if they are cancelling the flights themselves, or otherwise perhaps issue a credit. If you have an upcoming flight that you want to cancel you're better off waiting until the last minute to do it, you don't gain anything by cancelling flights early.
I was referring to the other costs associated with the holiday (tours, hotel stays, etc.). Any of these that you fail to secure a refund on will likely end up not be covered by travel insurance, depending on who you are insured with. As examples, Bankwest credit card travel insurance does not cover for infectious diseases, while Woolworths does not cover for pandemics (and their underwriters declared Coronavirus a pandemic, unlike the WHO).

Flights should automatically be covered if they cancel themselves thanks to common consumer law. As you said, nothing is to be gained from cancelling flights early
 

Mattdougie

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1. As we currently understand, there is not more chance of you dying of the common flu than the coronavirus. Current WHO estimates are 3.4% motality rate for COVID-19 vs I think 0.1% for flu. As we know that figure for coronavirus is likely to drop but I'm curious to hear on what basis you think the flu is more deadly, unless you know more about this than WHO?
2. Vaccinations and a level of herd immunity exist for the flu, which spreads with an R0 of approx 1.3. No vaccinations and no herd immunity currently exist for the coronavirus which has an estimated (potentially understated) R0 of 2-3, which means it spreads a hell of a lot easier than the flu does.
3. You cannot simply cut off a significant proportion of the population entirely, particularly those who are most in need of assistance from others.
4. You are staying inside to prevent spreading it to people who are likely to end up critically ill or dying from the disease. Because those vulnerable people cannot currently be vaccinated to protect themselves. And those vulnerable people are faced with an overloaded healthcare system that won't be able to look after them if they do catch it.
5. The world does not only revolve around young and healthy people.

1-And I’ve just told you the reason those figures are incorrect and the actual rate is around 1% and that is from a very low testing figure that I have no pointed out 3 times by you seem to want to ignore.

3- yes you bloody well can if you know this will kill them 🤦🏼‍♂️

5- the world doesn’t revolve around young and healthy but it stops for the old and sick????! Ummmmmm okey dokey

Agree to disagree and enjoy hiding in your house while I’m cruising the Caribbean(ps now I’m more likely to die after this but at least BF will be happy :)
 

Sentinel

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I was referring to the other costs associated with the holiday (tours, hotel stays, etc.). Any of these that you fail to secure a refund on will likely end up not be covered by travel insurance, depending on who you are insured with. As examples, Bankwest credit card travel insurance does not cover for infectious diseases, while Woolworths does not cover for pandemics (and their underwriters declared Coronavirus a pandemic, unlike the WHO).

Flights should automatically be covered if they cancel themselves thanks to common consumer law. As you said, nothing is to be gained from cancelling flights early
I have a trip to Europe booked for later this year, including through Italy, which at this stage I'll assume won't happen. I booked insurance (after Jan 23) through Budget Direct who told me over the phone that through their policy I'd be covered for all cancellation costs if the government changed any travel advice for countries on my trip to 'do not travel' given only China had that status at the time. I'm still sceptical about whether they will pay out or not, but that's what they said at least.
 

Mattdougie

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I have a trip to Europe booked for later this year, including through Italy, which at this stage I'll assume won't happen. I booked insurance (after Jan 23) through Budget Direct who told me over the phone that through their policy I'd be covered for all cancellation costs if the government changed any travel advice for countries on my trip to 'do not travel' given only China had that status at the time. I'm still sceptical about whether they will pay out or not, but that's what they said at least.

Hate to tell you but with Budget Direct you are screwed.

In Vegas, While I was asleep I got bitten on the face by a spider and incurred over $2500 in medical bills that they refused to insure because I couldn’t “PROVE” it was a spider and not self inflicted

No joke
 

Sentinel

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1-And I’ve just told you the reason those figures are incorrect and the actual rate is around 1% and that is from a very low testing figure that I have no pointed out 3 times by you seem to want to ignore.

3- yes you bloody well can if you know this will kill them 🤦🏼‍♂️

5- the world doesn’t revolve around young and healthy but it stops for the old and sick????! Ummmmmm okey dokey

Agree to disagree and enjoy hiding in your house while I’m cruising the Caribbean(ps now I’m more likely to die after this but at least BF will be happy :)
I'm not ignoring anything, I just honestly think you're talking out of your arse because you don't know what the actual rate is. Even if it is 1%, it's still 10x higher than the flu isn't it? That doesn't sound significant to you?

And I wonder who'll treat the sick people who need care when they're locked away in isolation? Or do we also lock away anyone who has anything to do with treating them too? Or just let them fend for themselves?

I'm sure most people have a level of empathy to understand that cancelling a game of football, delaying a holiday and working from home for a period of time to help prevent a bunch of people dying is a worthy sacrifice to make.
 

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