Coronavirus/COVID-19

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doggies ftw

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2008
17,328
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Do you need to be shown how limiting human interaction would reduce opportunities for this virus to transmit?

Lockdowns demonstrably work. That is scientifically proven beyond all doubt.

You don’t half bark up some odd trees.
🤦 yes lockdown works everyone knows that no one’s disagreeing, actually if we weren’t allowed to leave our houses at all there would be zero spread, that’s a fact!!

But maybe there’s other factors that need to be considered too, just maybe
 

Freshwater

Club Legend
Oct 30, 2014
2,685
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Western Bulldogs
Do you need to be shown how limiting human interaction would reduce opportunities for this virus to transmit?

Lockdowns demonstrably work. That is scientifically proven beyond all doubt.

You don’t half bark up some odd trees.
Yes, limiting human interaction obviously limits the virus. But humans still need to live. And this is where our gov here in Victoria got it completely wrong. The ‘science’ says nothing about curfews or outdoor recreation activities. The science is so far from settled or proven in any area of this, to use the ‘science’ just shows ignorance or arrogance. This illness is worse than influenza but much milder than Spanish flu. So how about we isolate the vulnerable and learn to live with virus in other settings. Are we causing more mental harm than the harm of
the actual virus? We don’t know, so why are we wasting the lives of our youth? How do we know whether we are causing long term immunity problems for all other viruses or bacteria’s because we are not mingleing? We don’t know. There is no science on this. Too many questions we don’t know yet we have a premier who talks likes he knows it all.
 

King Harold

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 23, 2013
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Be

Because good leaders bring all along with them. They create incentive based solutions. Bad leaders play petty point scoring politics, divide loyalty and then blame everyone else, their citizens, their political opponents and then throw a few from their own party under the bus to to protect themselves. But worst of all they rule with an authoritarian style that seeks to punish those that don’t follow their sometimes good but sometimes mindless rules. They base these rules on science’ but never show you where that ‘science’ comes from. Bad leaders go from bad to worse and will eventually leave office, disgraced, to never be seen in public again. Leaving their state citizens mentally fragile with a debt burden their grand children will be still paying off.
I am clearly a lot smarter than a good proportion of the Aus population.
I have no trouble understanding and following the science.
What science don’t you get ?
As for governments, they were always were going to struggle with this pandemic.
You clearly dislike Andrews , I suspect even before COVID hit , but your post is just a rant without a lot of substance.

I put it to you Fresh , your option to deal with this pandemic would have been a disaster.
Never going to change your mind , your prepared to increase the spread .

Who do you want to treat the ill , and how many deaths should we be prepared to accept ?

Pretty sure my grandchildren wanted me around a little longer !
 

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doggies ftw

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2008
17,328
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Funny how it’s always the older people happy to lockdown young healthy people to protect themselves, kinda selfish isn’t it? Again… if you’re allergic to the sun should no one else be allowed outside to protect your feelings?
 

LittleG

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 18, 2015
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Funny how it’s always the older people happy to lockdown young healthy people to protect themselves, kinda selfish isn’t it? Again… if you’re allergic to the sun should no one else be allowed outside to protect your feelings?
I am not old…. So it’s not always….

Now we have vaccines, get everyone who wants one time and stop all lockdowns.
 

King Harold

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 23, 2013
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Funny how it’s always the older people happy to lockdown young healthy people to protect themselves, kinda selfish isn’t it? Again… if you’re allergic to the sun should no one else be allowed outside to protect your feelings?
Wow and you think it’s all about me , I have no words for that !
 

Freshwater

Club Legend
Oct 30, 2014
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I actually would vote for Albo at the fed level. And would prefer him as PM over the other guy. But I live in a super safe Labor seat that has never been Liberal, so I am trying to make our individual seat marginal?!
No I don’t like Andrews. I am always concerned by anyone from the far left socialist faction and he proves his status on every policy and rule he makes. That end of the spectrum is cult like in their operations and never learn from history. And the disaster that is covid in Victoria was always going to happen under a leader like him.
 

BrisDog

Premiership Player
Dec 13, 2012
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I actually would vote for Albo at the fed level. And would prefer him as PM over the other guy. But I live in a super safe Labor seat that has never been Liberal, so I am trying to make our individual seat marginal?!
No I don’t like Andrews. I am always concerned by anyone from the far left socialist faction and he proves his status on every policy and rule he makes. That end of the spectrum is cult like in their operations and never learn from history. And the disaster that is covid in Victoria was always going to happen under a leader like him.
Is Andrews really from the ‘far-left socialist faction’? Is there such a faction in Victoria named the ‘Socialists’? Seems to be a term thrown around like candy these days for effect.
 
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King Harold

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 23, 2013
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Is Andrew’s really from the ‘far-left socialist faction’? Is there such a faction in Victoria named the ‘Socialists’? Seems to be a term thrown around like candy these days for effect.
yep , don’t think many people think of Andrews as being a socialist .
As you say just a way they to tag someone , supposedly to demonise them.

What is socialism ?
we could have a whole new debate as to what that means in the context of state governments In Aus.
 

Contador

Club Legend
Aug 24, 2009
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Dan Andrews a socialist - a man can dream. It's funny because Albo has shown more proper leftist tendencies in the past than Dan ever has.

How can we be in a lockdown since 5 August have 67% double vaxed, 85% on one dose and over 2,200 cases an increase of 50% in one day yet according to Dan NSW completely mismanaged their last outbreak. Something does not add up and the only thing that sticks out to me is NSW went much harder on the hotspots in in the West and we allowed the North and West hotspots to spread everywhere in Melbourne.
Here are some other factors to consider:
  • Compliance
  • Weather
  • NSW peaked around 13 weeks into their outbreak.
  • VIC is at 10 weeks now.
NSW allowed their outbreak to spread for weeks early on with few restrictions, leading to it seeding across the country and to NZ. This could be labelled "mismanagement".
 

LittleG

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 18, 2015
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Key difference between NSW and Victorian Covid responses:
Individual non-compliance.

Victorian’s are sick of lockdowns and the compliance rate is so low, that the virus is spreading quickly, even with lockdowns. Without lockdowns, the virus spread would be much higher.

Individual compliance is lower in Vic due to lockdown fatigue. Without purpose built quarantine facilities, we got hotel quarantine (which failed). This is an own goal from the Governments, as without last year, we would have been more compliant in this lockdown.

Soon, we all will have 80% of adults vaccinated and hopefully many of our children too. Really looking forward to that time and hopefully our hospitals can cope with the amount of Covid patients they will need to treat. Unfortunately I don’t think our hospitals will cope BUT I can’t see what else we can do?
 

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Contador

Club Legend
Aug 24, 2009
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Yes, limiting human interaction obviously limits the virus. But humans still need to live. And this is where our gov here in Victoria got it completely wrong. The ‘science’ says nothing about curfews or outdoor recreation activities. The science is so far from settled or proven in any area of this, to use the ‘science’ just shows ignorance or arrogance. This illness is worse than influenza but much milder than Spanish flu. So how about we isolate the vulnerable and learn to live with virus in other settings. Are we causing more mental harm than the harm of
the actual virus? We don’t know, so why are we wasting the lives of our youth? How do we know whether we are causing long term immunity problems for all other viruses or bacteria’s because we are not mingleing? We don’t know. There is no science on this. Too many questions we don’t know yet we have a premier who talks likes he knows it all.
So if you don't know any of these things, why are you so confident that locking down less would have produced such superior outcomes?
 

BrisDog

Premiership Player
Dec 13, 2012
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Show me some evidence please Fresh. I am not taking your word for it .

Also, saying that you would vote for Albo however you are not going to due to wanting to make the seat marginal appears to be nonsensical. I am reasonably progressive and accordingly I vote ALP. There is no shame in admitting what side of the fence you sit on.
 

Freshwater

Club Legend
Oct 30, 2014
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So if you don't know any of these things, why are you so confident that locking down less would have produced such superior outcomes?
I don’t think it would have. Probably worse. But that has never been my point. I reckon it should be more personal responsibility than government responsibility for own own choices. It’s always a trade off. I have never believed in ‘let it rip’. I actually admire the way Gladys did it. We’ve had this debate before and she was not without problems but at least her thoughts were trying to get open earlier that Dan. NSW was more targeted, maybe we should have been? But I hate the language and overall attitude and philosophy of the Andrews way. And I reckon that school master attitude turns people off the message, plus the lies etc.
 

dogwatch

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Jun 17, 2009
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No doubt lockdown fatigue has been a big factor, as my spy on the ground in Melbourne keeps telling me. He reports lots of instances of people just not even pretending to comply any more. Is that what others here are seeing?

Also as Norman Swan has pointed out on several occasions Victoria had multiple dispersed incursions of this “NSW wave” seeding its outbreak whereas NSW had the solitary limo driver who seeded their outbreak back in mid year.

Think of that as lighting a fire in a fireplace. If you put a match to just one corner of the scrunched up newspaper under the kindling it takes a while to spread to the whole fireplace and you have more time to douse it (which NSW failed to do aggressively enough). However if you light it at several points nearly simultaneously it spreads and grows into a roaring fire pretty quickly.

If NSW had been able to stop it or at least had taken firmer measures to prevent the early spread then it might not have even got into Victoria when it did. And not on as many fronts. An eventual incursion was inevitable though.

NSW’s early access to large extra supplies of Pfizer (with its shorter double-jab time) certainly helped, probably much more than the modellers expected it would. Hopefully that experience will be reflected in Victoria soon as vaccination rates start to take effect. Already hospitalisation rates are much lower than they would normally be without the vaccination program.

I can’t find the actual stats right now but Victoria had a much higher proportion of AZ vaccinations than NSW with a longer lead time to the second dose.

Imagine the furore now if Andrews had acceded to NSW demands that he hand over some of his Pfizer quota to help them out in July/ August!

Finally there has probably been a significant “kicker” in the case numbers arising from widespread non-compliance over grand final weekend. That would have lifted the future trajectory of case numbers to a higher base level.
 

Dogs_R_Us

Space Traveller
May 3, 2001
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Do you need to be shown how limiting human interaction would reduce opportunities for this virus to transmit?

Lockdowns demonstrably work. That is scientifically proven beyond all doubt.

You don’t half bark up some odd trees.
He’s right though. It’s the modelling, which always veers to the most extreme outcomes, that people don’t fully trust. A bit more explanation might - might - help people to be more accepting of rules. Not everyone is stupid, they’d just like to be let into the secret.
 

dogwatch

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Jun 17, 2009
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He’s right though. It’s the modelling, which always veers to the most extreme outcomes, that people don’t fully trust. A bit more explanation might - might - help people to be more accepting of rules. Not everyone is stupid, they’d just like to be let into the secret.
Examples please.

The modellers certainly don't always get it right but that's the nature of their craft. Different modellers often produce different projections that conflict with other those of modellers, though they are seldom wildly divergent. The conservative and sensible approach is usually to acknowledge a large number of variables which can affect the actual course of the disease and as a consequence propose an ever-widening band of likely outcomes stretching into the future.

I think the biggest overestimate in recent times has been the NSW case numbers for which most modelling (including that of the NSW government itself) cautiously forecast a much higher case peak - up in the several thousands. This error was probably due to the unanticipated strength of the vaccination program in mitigating spread. Simply put, they didn't have much evidence to suggest that a 55-65% level (at the time) of vaccination would inhibit spread as much as it seems to have done.

Generally I think that modelling must take a conservative approach and that modellers rarely if ever produce "extreme outcomes" so I'd be interested in some examples if you think they always do.

I suspect that we perceive it that way is more to do with the way various public people interpret the models. Especially politicians who happen to have a vested interest in suggesting the modelling says what they want the electorate to hear (eg by emphasising only one end of a possible band of outcomes). And then of course they deflect any blame to the modellers if it doesn't pan out the way they said it would.
 

LittleG

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 18, 2015
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He’s right though. It’s the modelling, which always veers to the most extreme outcomes, that people don’t fully trust. A bit more explanation might - might - help people to be more accepting of rules. Not everyone is stupid, they’d just like to be let into the secret.
An individual could choose to educate themselves about how the models are made. The individual could choose to conduct their own research and make their own model…. Educating themselves is a choice.
OR
an individual could completely rely on the government AND not take personal responsibility for understanding what is going on in the world.
OR
An individual could just criticise and avoid all personal responsibility.


I Prefer option 1 but completely understand people being time poor and choosing option 2. Option 3 doesn’t work for me at all.
 

doggies ftw

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2008
17,328
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Western Bulldogs
Key difference between NSW and Victorian Covid responses:
Individual non-compliance.

Victorian’s are sick of lockdowns and the compliance rate is so low, that the virus is spreading quickly, even with lockdowns. Without lockdowns, the virus spread would be much higher.

Individual compliance is lower in Vic due to lockdown fatigue. Without purpose built quarantine facilities, we got hotel quarantine (which failed). This is an own goal from the Governments, as without last year, we would have been more compliant in this lockdown.

Soon, we all will have 80% of adults vaccinated and hopefully many of our children too. Really looking forward to that time and hopefully our hospitals can cope with the amount of Covid patients they will need to treat. Unfortunately I don’t think our hospitals will cope BUT I can’t see what else we can do?
What evidence is there to suggest hospitals don’t cope? We’ve had 13,000 cases in the past 7 days, yet hospitals have only 75 more positive cases than they did last week.

Once again proving that by now anyone vulnerable or over the age of 50 should be double dosed and for younger people one dose is more than enough to keep the vast majority out of hospital - meaning we should not be in hard lockdowns right now
 

Dogs_R_Us

Space Traveller
May 3, 2001
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Western Bulldogs
Examples please.

The modellers certainly don't always get it right but that's the nature of their craft. Different modellers often produce different projections that conflict with other those of modellers, though they are seldom wildly divergent. The conservative and sensible approach is usually to acknowledge a large number of variables which can affect the actual course of the disease and as a consequence propose an ever-widening band of likely outcomes stretching into the future.

I think the biggest overestimate in recent times has been the NSW case numbers for which most modelling (including that of the NSW government itself) cautiously forecast a much higher case peak - up in the several thousands. This error was probably due to the unanticipated strength of the vaccination program in mitigating spread. Simply put, they didn't have much evidence to suggest that a 55-65% level (at the time) of vaccination would inhibit spread as much as it seems to have done.

Generally I think that modelling must take a conservative approach and that modellers rarely if ever produce "extreme outcomes" so I'd be interested in some examples if you think they always do.

I suspect that we perceive it that way is more to do with the way various public people interpret the models. Especially politicians who happen to have a vested interest in suggesting the modelling says what they want the electorate to hear (eg by emphasising only one end of a possible band of outcomes). And then of course they deflect any blame to the modellers if it doesn't pan out the way they said it would.
Well there's Niall Ferguson who's made numerous errors over the years, with the bird and swine flu outbreaks for example. He did admit he'd made errors in his modelling. Was he the one who said Australia would have 200,000 deaths from covid? Obviously that was IF certain things weren't done.

Of course, it may not always be "always", they are really best guesses based on past events, likely events, unforeseen events, taking into account how a disease behaves (but not always behaves) and spreads, so they really have to project a worst-case scenario to get governments and people to take action. I'm not against that. Oh, and the AMA said recently that NSW coming off restrictions could result in 50,000 deaths.

It's interesting how the states are all interpreting the modelling in their own way :)
 

Dogs_R_Us

Space Traveller
May 3, 2001
18,122
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Sirius - the Dogstar
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Western Bulldogs
An individual could choose to educate themselves about how the models are made. The individual could choose to conduct their own research and make their own model…. Educating themselves is a choice.
OR
an individual could completely rely on the government AND not take personal responsibility for understanding what is going on in the world.
OR
An individual could just criticise and avoid all personal responsibility.


I Prefer option 1 but completely understand people being time poor and choosing option 2. Option 3 doesn’t work for me at all.
Unfortunately the vast majority of the anti everything haven't the capability for 1.
 

cecil

Club Legend
Feb 28, 2010
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Lack of compliance with no visitors to home is the biggest driver for cases at the moment. Apparently 1200 of the cases yesterday were the first case in their household. Obviously some of those would be essential workers catching it at work, but unless a lot of people are catching it at the supermarket then there's a LOT of illegal cross-house visiting going on
 

LittleG

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 18, 2015
8,450
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What evidence is there to suggest hospitals don’t cope? We’ve had 13,000 cases in the past 7 days, yet hospitals have only 75 more positive cases than they did last week.

Once again proving that by now anyone vulnerable or over the age of 50 should be double dosed and for younger people one dose is more than enough to keep the vast majority out of hospital - meaning we should not be in hard lockdowns right now
These Vaccines work best after two doses. Once two doses are done, open up. Can’t penalise those who couldn’t make an appointment until now. My sister gets her second dose next week, she didn’t hesitate but wasn’t able to get double dosed until now.

We will be getting 20,000+/daily cases when we open up. Our current rate is lower than it’s going to be for months.
 

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