Coronavirus/COVID-19

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D Mitchell

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But, but, didn't some posters on here say the "health system is not in crisis", and "everything will be fine"? :think:


Health networks across the country are under-staffed, and under pressure, and have been throughout the pandemic. Sure, there are graduates coming into the system, but the experienced staff exiting the system are in addition to the normal attrition rates that existed pre-COVID. So net staff levels are falling in many areas. And the net knowledge/experience base with it. There are less experienced staff to train the new staff. But "everything is fine".

What is a crisis ? Check your dictionary. If a piece by someone claiming to be a doctor signed Anonymous and first produced by Scrag, unacknowledged or sourced, followed by an ABC report based upon what a Tamworth Nurses Union official thinks might happen in the future, is sufficient to justify Health networks across the country are under-staffed, and under pressure, and have been throughout the pandemic. .....the experienced staff exiting the system are in addition to the normal attrition rates that existed pre-COVID. So net staff levels are falling in many areas and that constitutes a Crisis, then, either you have no knowledge of the meaning of the word crisis or, if you do, although nobody has said it yet, I will now. The health system is not in crisis.

If there were huge numbers of patients dying because of lack of staffing or lying on trolleys in hospital hallways dying because there are no facilities, then you might be able to use the word crisis but not on the basis of an anonymous, unacknowledged anecdote and that ABC piece. That's no going to happen in Victoria because there are fewer than 400 patients in in ICU beds where there are supposed to 4,400 such beds available. If you, or any of the other very few who claim a health crisis can come up with some credible verification i e beyond anecdotes or media sensationalist headlines, I'll be prepared to change my mind. I've seen nothing worthwhile to suggest anything remotely approaching a crisis.
 

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What is a crisis ? Check your dictionary. If a piece by someone claiming to be a doctor signed Anonymous and first produced by Scrag, unacknowledged or sourced, followed by an ABC report based upon what a Tamworth Nurses Union official thinks might happen in the future, is sufficient to justify Health networks across the country are under-staffed, and under pressure, and have been throughout the pandemic. .....the experienced staff exiting the system are in addition to the normal attrition rates that existed pre-COVID. So net staff levels are falling in many areas and that constitutes a Crisis, then, either you have no knowledge of the meaning of the word crisis or, if you do, although nobody has said it yet, I will now. The health system is not in crisis.

If there were huge numbers of patients dying because of lack of staffing or lying on trolleys in hospital hallways dying because there are no facilities, then you might be able to use the word crisis but not on the basis of an anonymous, unacknowledged anecdote and that ABC piece. That's no going to happen in Victoria because there are fewer than 400 patients in in ICU beds where there are supposed to 4,400 such beds available. If you, or any of the other very few who claim a health crisis can come up with some credible verification i e beyond anecdotes or media sensationalist headlines, I'll be prepared to change my mind. I've seen nothing worthwhile to suggest anything remotely approaching a crisis.

Before we have a look for you, can we have an idea of what would actually count as permissible evidence? So far you have banned:

  • Stories by health workers who actually see what's going on.
  • News articles in any media.

Just checking what else isn't allowed.
 

D Mitchell

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If true then the Federal government is proving itself even more inept than I thought.

And I didn't think they were very ept to begin with, so that would be some achievement.

Surely they took their time after the initial appeal was upheld to make sure they had a watertight case? Or were they just stalling to make their announcement on a Friday evening (when most of the press pack have gone home for the weekend) like they normally do with difficult announcements?

If the rule is no entry for the unvaccinated and the sole exception is that there are medical reasons why the applicant could not be vaccinated, Djokovic should never have been given a Visa. How he came to get the Visa is a mystery, to me, because the process has not been explained. How do 2 medicos give a certificate that Djokovic was medically unable to be vaccinated without examining or interviewing him and where it is common ground that he relied upon having tested positive within the previous 6 months ? None of it makes sense. It's published that Hawke wanted to canvas opinion from both the Public Service and from external advisors. Just why Hawke determined to act as he did is speculation only, perhaps he wants to run a test case, ineptness or timing opportunism are possible conclusions. time will tell. The process needs either review or better explanation.
 

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D Mitchell

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Before we have a look for you, can we have an idea of what would actually count as permissible evidence? So far you have banned:

  • Stories by health workers who actually see what's going on.
  • News articles in any media.

Just checking what else isn't allowed.

If it's a crisis, wouldn't you expect there to be stats kept by government ? Academic articles where serious analysis has been undertaken ? What about stats on rates of covid illness among medical staff ? If you want to use media then the contents have to be a bit better than some prediction by a Union Official and don't accept unsupported conclusion by either the journo or anyone quoted in the article. Be careful of health workers who actually see what's going on that's OK as a starting point or guide but far too local and subjective to be conclusive about the whole of the health industry in the country. Are you convinced by an anonymous claimant and a rural union official's fears for the future ?
 
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doggies ftw

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It is concerning if the hospitals are past breaking point at 1000 people hospitalised and 100 people in ICU, across our whole state. That’s very concerning - it’s not exactly a large number of people. Imagine if we had a serious pandemic…
 

ScragCity

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It is concerning if the hospitals are past breaking point at 1000 people hospitalised and 100 people in ICU, across our whole state. That’s very concerning - it’s not exactly a large number of people. Imagine if we had a serious pandemic…

Do you understand the concept that those aren't the total number of patients in hospital, that those are the number of COVID patients? So that's 1000 people in addition to the normal number of patients you could expect to see at this time of year. I do agree that we should have the capacity to handle 1000 excess patients though. Unfortunately we don't fund hospitals and healthcare as well as we should and we don't invest enough into crisis mitigation.
 

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Do you understand the concept that those aren't the total number of patients in hospital, that those are the number of COVID patients? So that's 1000 people in addition to the normal number of patients you could expect to see at this time of year. I do agree that we should have the capacity to handle 1000 excess patients though. Unfortunately we don't fund hospitals and healthcare as well as we should and we don't invest enough into crisis mitigation.
Many of them are not sick with covid, but are there for something else and tested positive on admission. Can’t speak for other states but it’s about half in QLD, according to the CMO.
 

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Do you understand the concept that those aren't the total number of patients in hospital, that those are the number of COVID patients? So that's 1000 people in addition to the normal number of patients you could expect to see at this time of year. I do agree that we should have the capacity to handle 1000 excess patients though. Unfortunately we don't fund hospitals and healthcare as well as we should and we don't invest enough into crisis mitigation.
Yes obviously I understand that 😂 but what I’m saying is 1000 extra people, in a state of 7,000,000 should not be putting the whole healthcare system past breaking point - that is the one and only concerning thing about this whole virus in its current state (Omicron Dominant strain with 95% of the population vaxxed)
 

Mantis Toboggan

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Yes obviously I understand that 😂 but what I’m saying is 1000 extra people, in a state of 7,000,000 should not be putting the whole healthcare system past breaking point - that is the one and only concerning thing about this whole virus in its current state (Omicron Dominant strain with 95% of the population vaxxed)
Can you imagine how difficult it is to deal with an infectious virus in a hospital? 1000 people may not sound like much. If all those people had broken legs then it’s perhaps not that big a deal. But facilitating care for a covid patient while maintaining staff and other patient safety is a bloody nightmare.
 

dogwatch

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If the rule is no entry for the unvaccinated and the sole exception is that there are medical reasons why the applicant could not be vaccinated, Djokovic should never have been given a Visa. How he came to get the Visa is a mystery, to me, because the process has not been explained. How do 2 medicos give a certificate that Djokovic was medically unable to be vaccinated without examining or interviewing him and where it is common ground that he relied upon having tested positive within the previous 6 months ? None of it makes sense. It's published that Hawke wanted to canvas opinion from both the Public Service and from external advisors. Just why Hawke determined to act as he did is speculation only, perhaps he wants to run a test case, ineptness or timing opportunism are possible conclusions. time will tell. The process needs either review or better explanation.
Reasonable questions. Most of us are puzzled like you.

Abdul Rizvi the former senior exec in Immigration (and a popular go-to man for media looking for provocative commentary) has repeatedly stated that the crackdown should have been when Djokovic applied for a visa not when he arrived at Tullamarine. I think we’d both agree with that.

It was reported today that one of Hawke’s reasons was the risk that Djokovic would become a talisman for the antivax brigade.

That intrigued me because it’s less a direct issue of public health and more about suppressing dissenting views. They do have form on that score though so perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised.
 

Dogs_R_Us

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Reasonable questions. Most of us are puzzled like you.

Abdul Rizvi the former senior exec in Immigration (and a popular go-to man for media looking for provocative commentary) has repeatedly stated that the crackdown should have been when Djokovic applied for a visa not when he arrived at Tullamarine. I think we’d both agree with that.

It was reported today that one of Hawke’s reasons was the risk that Djokovic would become a talisman for the antivax brigade.

That intrigued me because it’s less a direct issue of public health and more about suppressing dissenting views. They do have form on that score though so perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised.
Blimey, so this pov is not valid? It certainly is about public health. Not dissenting views whatever they may be, but antivax views. (Not to mention lying.) Right now, when cases and deaths are surging. Isn’t it worth suppressing those, expressed by a high-profile foreign visitor with a huge following?
 

dogwatch

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On the healthcare capacity “crisis” (or whatever we want to call it) we need to differentiate between beds and available healthcare staff, preferably ones who haven’t been working much more punishing hours than usual and who have been able to take breaks from PPE and to hydrate during their extended shifts.

It seems to me that beds and physical facilities are not stretched but the staff definitely are stretched in many parts of the country. This may be why we are seeing a disconnect in the discussion.
 

dogwatch

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Blimey, so this pov is not valid? It certainly is about public health. Not dissenting views whatever they may be, but antivax views. (Not to mention lying.) Right now, when cases and deaths are surging. Isn’t it worth suppressing those, expressed by a high-profile foreign visitor with a huge following?
I disagree that excluding someone because of their opinions is a direct public health issue, even if their controversial opinions are about public health.

It’s a political issue when you exclude someone because of their opinions and their ability to rally dissenting supporters.

I know Hawke says that it does constitute a “health risk” but I think it’s a risky argument to mount when you know for sure that Djokovic’s legal team is going to contest the visa cancellation.

It’s important to remember that there were other reasons apart from ND’s views. For instance his reported reluctance to follow isolation protocols when (supposedly) infected. These reasons might have more chance of withstanding an appeal.
 

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D Mitchell

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On the healthcare capacity “crisis” (or whatever we want to call it) we need to differentiate between beds and available healthcare staff, preferably ones who haven’t been working much more punishing hours than usual and who have been able to take breaks from PPE and to hydrate during their extended shifts.

It seems to me that beds and physical facilities are not stretched but the staff definitely are stretched in many parts of the country. This may be why we are seeing a disconnect in the discussion.
There is no shortage of beds and equipment in Victoria, Andrews spent up big with his 4,000 ICU beds campaign. I query the extent to which staff are stretched, too, headlines and anecdotes. There's an increase of hospital admissions because of the Omacron variety, the Victorian Health Department refers openly to the surge in recruitment of extra staff on its website, that's proper administration.


For tomorrow's hearing, Djokovic's application is available online. It sets out Hawke's grounds, all about danger of encouraging anti-vaccers, nothing much on spreading infection, on paper it looks thin. It's been uplifted to the Federal Court and one news report, probably ABC, said this morning that multiple judges may be appointed. I think that's a better forum for the Commonwealth.

 

dogwatch

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I query the extent to which staff are stretched, too, headlines and anecdotes.
I have an open mind on this.
Are you aware of any reliable official stats on the staff situation? I'm not, but perhaps I haven't been looking hard enough or in the right places. Or maybe they just aren't being published?

Plenty of official commentary on beds though. Perhaps they're easier to count ... and of course they tell a more palatable story.

In the absence of official figures the best we have to go by may just be anecdotes and headlines. Yes, maybe they're not always 100% reliable but that's not a reason to dismiss them out of hand either. Anecdotes and investigative reports by journos often turn out to be the smoke detected before a declaration of fire. It seems to me there have been lots of anecdotes of health staff problems reported over recent months.

So if you - or anyone - can furnish some relevant and reliable stats on the staff situation it would be illuminating. Even if it's only in Victoria or NSW and not the whole country.

The same applies for service times for people presenting with Covid, suspected Covid or indeed any other serious conditions. In ED or elsewhere. It has been alleged that service times have been deteriorating with the increasing Covid caseload but I haven't seen any good stats on it.

There have also been concerns expressed by oncologists etc that people are forgoing routine tests and checkups because of the pressures on the health system. Their worry is that this will manifest itself in more serious health problems for many people some time later. Again I haven't seen quantification or analysis of this so I don't know how real the problem is.
 

D Mitchell

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I have an open mind on this.
Are you aware of any reliable official stats on the staff situation? I'm not, but perhaps I haven't been looking hard enough or in the right places. Or maybe they just aren't being published?

Plenty of official commentary on beds though. Perhaps they're easier to count ... and of course they tell a more palatable story.

In the absence of official figures the best we have to go by may just be anecdotes and headlines. Yes, maybe they're not always 100% reliable but that's not a reason to dismiss them out of hand either. Anecdotes and investigative reports by journos often turn out to be the smoke detected before a declaration of fire. It seems to me there have been lots of anecdotes of health staff problems reported over recent months.

So if you - or anyone - can furnish some relevant and reliable stats on the staff situation it would be illuminating. Even if it's only in Victoria or NSW and not the whole country.

The same applies for service times for people presenting with Covid, suspected Covid or indeed any other serious conditions. In ED or elsewhere. It has been alleged that service times have been deteriorating with the increasing Covid caseload but I haven't seen any good stats on it.

There have also been concerns expressed by oncologists etc that people are forgoing routine tests and checkups because of the pressures on the health system. Their worry is that this will manifest itself in more serious health problems for many people some time later. Again I haven't seen quantification or analysis of this so I don't know how real the problem is.
I don't have access to figures, there's a bit on the Nurses and Midwives site. It might be worth looking at ABS. It's 2 years now, you'd think there'd be something, perhaps governments are too preoccupied with fighting the pandemic and governing, can't blame them. I have no faith in anecdotal evidence short of surveys, headlines even less, so subjective and easily manipulated. Under testing and reporting was common even during the lockdown era, I've no doubts there is far more now, most appear to recover quickly, why bother ? You are probably right about numbers forgoing non covid tests, too, understandable in a pandemic, more services are required, something has to give. Now I have a little secret to tell you as long as you promise not to tell anyone. I have a distantish relative who's one of those nurses. She says nothing about stress and understaffing etc, she's happy with the extra overtime and says most of us will get it some time or other and recover, the quicker the better. Anecdotes work both ways.
 

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I disagree that excluding someone because of their opinions is a direct public health issue, even if their controversial opinions are about public health.

It’s a political issue when you exclude someone because of their opinions and their ability to rally dissenting supporters.

I know Hawke says that it does constitute a “health risk” but I think it’s a risky argument to mount when you know for sure that Djokovic’s legal team is going to contest the visa cancellation.

It’s important to remember that there were other reasons apart from ND’s views. For instance his reported reluctance to follow isolation protocols when (supposedly) infected. These reasons might have more chance of withstanding an appeal.
Seems a very odd angle for them to take when he has already admitted providing false evidence on his arrival documentation. Surely that, and his alleged contraction of Covid combined with his movements while positive, would be better grounds to deport him.
 

Virgin Dog

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I disagree that excluding someone because of their opinions is a direct public health issue, even if their controversial opinions are about public health.

It’s a political issue when you exclude someone because of their opinions and their ability to rally dissenting supporters.

I know Hawke says that it does constitute a “health risk” but I think it’s a risky argument to mount when you know for sure that Djokovic’s legal team is going to contest the visa cancellation.

It’s important to remember that there were other reasons apart from ND’s views. For instance his reported reluctance to follow isolation protocols when (supposedly) infected. These reasons might have more chance of withstanding an appeal.
I have trouble with this too. While I despise these high profile anti-vaxxers and the impact they're having, this is dangerous ground for our government to be treading on.

It's not that big a stretch to imagine a world where the religious extremists in our government fight against the right to abortion (some in the US are trying it now), and start deciding to cancel the visas of anti-abortion activists due to concern over them becoming a "talisman". I'm glad Djokovic is being kicked out, but I hate the way the feds have handled it every step of the way.
 

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It is concerning if the hospitals are past breaking point at 1000 people hospitalised and 100 people in ICU, across our whole state. That’s very concerning - it’s not exactly a large number of people. Imagine if we had a serious pandemic…

have you any understanding of the increased protocols with a infectious disease ?
If I had to guess , you have no idea !
 

D Mitchell

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...
It's not that big a stretch to imagine a world where the religious extremists in our government fight against the right to abortion (some in the US are trying it now), and start deciding to cancel the visas of anti-abortion activists due to concern over them becoming a "talisman". ...
It already happens. Milo Yiannopoulis, Raheem Kassam, Mimi Mefo, Lauren Southern, Stephan Molyneux, all denied visas.
 
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Virgin Dog

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It already happens. Milo Yiannopoulis, Raheem Kassam, Mimi Mefo, Lauren Southern, Stephan Molyneux, all denied visas.
Wasn't Milo something to do with some comments he made around pedophilia? I'm not going to pretend like I'm aware of any of the other people, but either way not a great look if we're denying visas on political grounds. If they incite violence I can understand it, but otherwise not good
 

doggies ftw

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have you any understanding of the increased protocols with a infectious disease ?
If I had to guess , you have no idea !
No why would I, that’s not what I’m paid to do 🤷‍♂️

All I’m saying is after two years if we can’t cope with 1000 extra patients across a state, imagine the carnage if we ever have to deal with a more serious pandemic (compared to the one right now with a relatively mild strain and 95% vax rates)

If we’re looking at using hotels as make shift hospitals now that sounds like a step in the right direction, I wouldn’t be surprised if 50% of the patients currently in care wouldn’t be better off just resting at home
 

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I have trouble with this too. While I despise these high profile anti-vaxxers and the impact they're having, this is dangerous ground for our government to be treading on.

It's not that big a stretch to imagine a world where the religious extremists in our government fight against the right to abortion (some in the US are trying it now), and start deciding to cancel the visas of anti-abortion activists due to concern over them becoming a "talisman". I'm glad Djokovic is being kicked out, but I hate the way the feds have handled it every step of the way.
It may well be troubling, but people are excluded or deported from this country on all sorts of arbitrary grounds, all of the time.

In your example its already happened with an anti-abortion activists here and there is a already lots of precedent for peoples deportation for the country after having their visa cancelled. An American named Troy Newman was deported from Australia on the grounds that his presence "was a threat to good order." Grounds not a long way from those being used against Novak right now.

There is also the case of David Irving who has been trying to get a visa to enter Australia for nearly 30 years. He is always denied on the grounds that he was likely to be involved in disruptive or violent activities. Wording not a long way from Hawkes where he described Novaks continued presence thusly “...I consider that Mr Djokovic’s ongoing presence in Australia may lead to an increase in anti-vaccination sentiment generated in the Australian community, potentially leading to an increase in civil unrest of the kind previously experienced in Australia with rallies and protests which may themselves be a source of community transmission.” Under the migration act the minister doesn't need to prove that this will happen, just that it might.

Its the same kind of vague reasoning that allowed the country to keep people from non-european countries wanting to migrate, out of Australia for nearly 150 years by subjecting them to tests in languages that they had no hope of being able to pass. Do not pass go. Do not collect a visa and Do not think about getting on a boat.
 

D Mitchell

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Wasn't Milo something to do with some comments he made around pedophilia? I'm not going to pretend like I'm aware of any of the other people, but either way not a great look if we're denying visas on political grounds. If they incite violence I can understand it, but otherwise not good
Whatever their proclivities, all excluded for political reasons. Tommy Robinson was denied on grounds of character, he'd served time, he says it was political. I don't think any incited violence.
 

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