Hospitalisation versus general population is not the issue with your figures. The issue is that you are not accounting for there being a lot more 18-29 year olds and 30-39 year olds than 75-84 year olds and 85+ year olds, but in your maths you're weighting all the age groups the same. Your 95% of deaths being 65 years or older is simply incorrect.
If 1 of the 18-29 year olds dies then 630 85+year olds dies, independent of the relative population sizes of each group. The percentages of deaths from each age group is calculated from the fraction of deaths from that age group relative the total deaths calculated from the adding up all of the different age groups deaths relative to each other.
I see where you're struggling. That's not what those figures are. They show the relative risk when a member of each age group contracts the disease. The 85+ year old has a 630 times higher chance of dying compared to 18-29 year olds.
Accept that I am wrong. I downloaded data from https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-W/vsak-wrfu/data and did the calcs. Slightly frustrated with how CDC expalins its data. Where does it say/explain at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201.../hospitalization-death-by-age.html#footnote02 that those figures 'show the relative risk when a member of each age group contracts the disease'?I see where you're struggling. That's not what those figures are. They show the relative risk when a member of each age group contracts the disease. The 85+ year old has a 630 times higher chance of dying compared to 18-29 year olds.
Again, here's the concrete numbers - no maths required:
Yep I am wrong. It is about 80% of deaths in the over 64 age groups in the USA.
Australia's over 60 years old % of deaths from COVID-19 is 98%, and over 70 yo it is 92.9%. big difference to USA. https://www.health.gov.au/news/heal...total-cases-and-deaths-by-state-and-territory.I see where you're struggling. That's not what those figures are. They show the relative risk when a member of each age group contracts the disease. The 85+ year old has a 630 times higher chance of dying compared to 18-29 year olds.
Again, here's the concrete numbers - no maths required:
| Australia | USA | |
What I take away from that table is nothing to do with the virus but our obesity rates, 1 in 4 wow, what a life of decadence we lead.
I should have put a heading on table. It is comparing Australia to USA. Australia on the left. USA on the right. USA obesity in males is 33%.
I’d say the main contributory factors are that we haven’t let the virus run rampant in our society in general, and that it unfortunately got in to Victoria’s aged care sector unchecked.
Yer, I realised that, ours is around 1 in 4, the USA nearly 1 in 3, really is an indictment on the society that we have set up and exported in the west.I should have put a heading on table. It is comparing Australia to USA. Australia on the left. USA on the right. Interesting articleLearning from the Dead: What Autopsies Can Reveal about COVID-19 - DER SPIEGEL - International
Pathologists are eager to quickly conduct autopsies on as many COVID-19 victims as possible. They aim to determine who is at greatest risk from the virus and what damage it causes inside the body. Initial results are already available.www.spiegel.de
You could be right. Still I find the some of the health statistic comparisons between Australia and USA interesting. E.g. More obesity, shorter life expectancy.
See I hate this type of discussion, because it’s sort of saying such deaths are not as important as healthy peoples deaths.
My parents both passed in the last 2 years, and my wife 6 years ago, so I understand personal lose and grief. I think the context of those comments were in regards to the other costs to society, including deaths caused as result of extended lockdowns and increased unemployment. Society is always making cost benefit analysis calculations regarding deaths saved/delayed versus other costs. E.g. Speed limits on the roads. If we lowered all the speed limits by 1/3 then there would be a reduction in injuries and deaths but do we? If we locked down society just before every flu season it would also delay deaths/save lives in the same group vulnerable to COVID but we don't. We accept that when we get close to end of life something will kill us. We all die.
You sound like my 81 year old mother, she was adamant she was not for the locking down of society to "save" her, she said she would take responsibility for her own health re her hygiene and socialising practices, I'm 60 and felt much the same way.
Can you clarify where you stand in regards to Victoria’s current lockdown, before we go any further.
I support the Swedish Model. Let it run its course. I think that it will inevitably make its way thru society anyway. I have no high hopes of an effective and safe vaccine. The flu vaccine is only between 10-50% effective in any given year, usually closer to 10%. I have grave concerns for the safety of a vaccine.
You've looked at the death rate per capita over the last few months?
I was pleasantly shocked when heard this earlier today
No increase in Victorian suicide rate as calls to helplines surge in pandemic
State Coroner reveals there's been no increase in the number of people dying by suicide this year, but Lifeline received 1000 daily calls from Victorians for the first time ever this week.www.theage.com.au
Hate to ruin a narrative...
