Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

[luthor]

The thought has occurred to me that these figures may be tempting a change in policy to eradicate rather than just contain.

Number of new daily positives decreasing with recent positives from external sources, and local transmissions almost zero. Very small window left to commit to that policy, however todays new restrictions are very tight.

Be amazing if we could achieve it though there is still a world of pain from our export industries (traditional exports plus education and tourism).

Unless a vaccine suddenly pops up, eradication is just a pipe dream.

Containment is the only viable strategy at present.

EDIT: IMO we are doing a damn good job with the containment in this country so far.

 

[briztoon]

Unless a vaccine suddenly pops up, eradication is just a pipe dream.

Containment is the only viable strategy at present.

EDIT: IMO we are doing a damn good job with the containment in this country so far.

I’m assuming eradication would involve keeping our borders almost closed, with mandatory, government controlled quarantine as well, until a vaccine is possibly found.

 

[Dalions]

We are all going to feel the economic effects of this for years to come.
But I really think Scomo is doing a great job of leading this Country through this unprecedented event.
So far!

 

[luthor]

I’m assuming eradication would involve keeping our borders almost closed, with mandatory, government controlled quarantine as well, until a vaccine is possibly found.

If there is even 1 case out there without a vaccination, then won't the bloody thing just keep on keeping on ? Until everyone gets it and you either live or you die.

That's how it started in the first place. One miserable case in a wet market in Wuhan and here we are.

We can only stay locked down for so long. Both on a social and economic level

Governments can have as many bail outs and stimulus packages as they like but they are all based on printing money. If there is nothing being produced , commonly referred to as GDP, then ultimately money will buy just that................nothing.

There will be a point where the Economic imperative will outstrip the humanitarian one, Sometime soon, the 30% of humanity that has actually been producing stuff is going to have to start producing stuff again

l fear that unless a cure/vaccination is found within 3 to 6 months, the harsh realities of total economic breakdown on a global scale will lead to pragmatic decisions being made that will be based on a Darwinian survival of the fittest imperative.

I pray it won't come to that.

 

[briztoon]

If there is even 1 case out there without a vaccination, then won't the bloody thing just keep on keeping on ? Until everyone gets it and you either live or you die.

That's how it started in the first place. One miserable case in a wet market in Wuhan and here we are.

We can only stay locked down for so long. Both on a social and economic level

Governments can have as many bail outs and stimulus packages as they like but they are all based on printing money. If there is nothing being produced , commonly referred to as GDP, then ultimately money will buy just that................nothing.

There will be a point where the Economic imperative will outstrip the humanitarian one, Sometime soon, the 30% of humanity that has actually been producing stuff is going to have to start producing stuff again

l fear that unless a cure/vaccination is found within 3 to 6 months, the harsh realities of total economic breakdown on a global scale will lead to pragmatic decisions being made that will be based on a Darwinian survival of the fittest imperative.

I pray it won't come to that.

Our production and manufacturing industries haven’t shut down yet.

I literally haven’t been out for two weeks now, but our hardwares and trade stores are still open aren’t they?

Apart from the enforced closure of businesses that attract crowds of people, it’s currently the retail fashion industry slowly shutting down at the moment

It might be a while before the world rights itself, but there’s large sections of the Australian economy that can keep on, keeping on, until the world does return to some semblance of normality.

 

[BRAB]

Testing criteria that is primarily geared towards overseas travelers means that a dip in the numbers would be expected after we close the borders.

Only way we see community transmission right now is when a patient presents with pneumonia.

Testing criteria needs to be broadened, but there's problems with that because we don't have to capacity to acquire enough tests.

I wonder if we would have had the capacity to make our own testing kits if we had invested into science over the last 7 years instead of cutting funding.

 

[Nunez]

Testing criteria that is primarily geared towards overseas travelers means that a dip in the numbers would be expected after we close the borders.

Only way we see community transmission right now is when a patient presents with pneumonia.

Testing criteria needs to be broadened, but there's problems with that because we don't have to capacity to acquire enough tests.

I wonder if we would have had the capacity to make our own testing kits if we had invested into science over the last 7 years instead of cutting funding.

From my understanding, we are manufacturing tests in Australia now, aren't we?

 

[Dylan12]

EDIT: IMO we are doing a damn good job with the containment in this country so far.

We could be doing an even better job if so many out there would STAY AT HOME and stop acting as if nothing is going on and is their god given right to go out and about as if nothing is going on.

Further to that, I have been out twice in the past week; both times to the supermarket 6 days apart. Both times, people came into my space and were inpatient and both times (on Saturday, it happened 4 times). I told each of these people off (the last occasion, the person couldn't even observe the social distancing markers in the cue at the check out and got to within half a metre of me) and on three of those occasions these people had the audacity to get pissed off at me with their smart comments despite me trying and I emphasise trying to do the right thing.

I don't for a minute think they have no idea what is wrong or that they were incapable of doing the right thing, I just think there are so many ******* Australians that simply do not give a s**t.

For mine, I think the Government should go one step further and just shut everything down for 2-3 weeks because too many people just do not get it and do not care.

End rant.

 

[Dylan12]

We are all going to feel the economic effects of this for years to come.
But I really think Scomo is doing a great job of leading this Country through this unprecedented event.
So far!

I wish Malcolm Turnbull was the PM through this event.

As much as everyone praises SloMo, he should and could have acted so much quicker on so many of these measures at least a month before, particularly shutting our international borders, given every single measure that has been adopted was inevitable in mid February. (As for SloMo, I've no doubt he would've been much better than the current opposition leader). I will give SloMo one clip though. He had the nerve to congratulate the NSW Premier last night; yes that idiot woman that approved those thousand's people getting off that cruise ship a week and a half. Is he insane, she should be stood immediately and definitely has blood on her hands.

And don't get me started on anyone whinging about being locked up in a hotel room after disembarking a cruise ship. On what planet did any of these morons think it was ok to get on one of these ships after what had occurred with that cruise liner in Japan in early January? It honestly beggars belief.

 

[Crimso]

I wish Malcolm Turnbull was the PM through this event.

As much as everyone praises SloMo, he should and could have acted so much quicker on so many of these measures at least a month before, particularly shutting our international borders, given every single measure that has been adopted was inevitable in mid February. (As for SloMo, I've no doubt he would've been much better than the current opposition leader). I will give SloMo one clip though. He had the nerve to congratulate the NSW Premier last night; yes that idiot woman that approved those thousand's people getting off that cruise ship a week and a half. Is he insane, she should be stood immediately and definitely has blood on her hands.

And don't get me started on anyone whinging about being locked up in a hotel room after disembarking a cruise ship. On what planet did any of these morons think it was ok to get on one of these ships after what had occurred with that cruise liner in Japan in early January? It honestly beggars belief.

Having been a prick relative to a couple of the people that disembarked in Sydney I can say questions were being asked by the passengers as to why there were basically no border controls or checks etc. They were told by the company there had never been any cases of covid on this ship, it had been thoroughly cleaned, it was 100% safe and the passengers would be safer at sea away from possible infection. Pretty much they were lied to. One of the people I know is now a statistic trying to recover.

 

[Dalions]

I wish Malcolm Turnbull was the PM through this event.

As much as everyone praises SloMo, he should and could have acted so much quicker on so many of these measures at least a month before, particularly shutting our international borders, given every single measure that has been adopted was inevitable in mid February. (As for SloMo, I've no doubt he would've been much better than the current opposition leader). I will give SloMo one clip though. He had the nerve to congratulate the NSW Premier last night; yes that idiot woman that approved those thousand's people getting off that cruise ship a week and a half. Is he insane, she should be stood immediately and definitely has blood on her hands.

And don't get me started on anyone whinging about being locked up in a hotel room after disembarking a cruise ship. On what planet did any of these morons think it was ok to get on one of these ships after what had occurred with that cruise liner in Japan in early January? It honestly beggars belief.

In all fairness he was praising the NSW Government on a different matter entirely. But I get your point.
He was basically suggesting they have cleaned up their act, which is a good thing, we are all learning here, including governments.

The last paragraph of your post, I am right there with you.

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

Testing criteria that is primarily geared towards overseas travelers means that a dip in the numbers would be expected after we close the borders.

Only way we see community transmission right now is when a patient presents with pneumonia.

Testing criteria needs to be broadened, but there's problems with that because we don't have to capacity to acquire enough tests.

I wonder if we would have had the capacity to make our own testing kits if we had invested into science over the last 7 years instead of cutting funding.

yeh only trouble if we still had the funding and all that, is we would still be getting India or china to manufacture the kits.
maybe things will change , realistically I doubt it.

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

We could be doing an even better job if so many out there would STAY AT HOME and stop acting as if nothing is going on and is their god given right to go out and about as if nothing is going on.

Further to that, I have been out twice in the past week; both times to the supermarket 6 days apart. Both times, people came into my space and were inpatient and both times (on Saturday, it happened 4 times). I told each of these people off (the last occasion, the person couldn't even observe the social distancing markers in the cue at the check out and got to within half a metre of me) and on three of those occasions these people had the audacity to get pissed off at me with their smart comments despite me trying and I emphasise trying to do the right thing.

I don't for a minute think they have no idea what is wrong or that they were incapable of doing the right thing, I just think there are so many ******* Australians that simply do not give a s**t.

For mine, I think the Government should go one step further and just shut everything down for 2-3 weeks because too many people just do not get it and do not care.

End rant.

Some guy about late fifties early 60's came into my shop this morning and had no idea of the 1.5m rule apparently.
just waltzed right into my workshop and stood next to me .
these dicks won't recognize the dangers until it happens to them or someone they know.
I'm not even a retail shop , it's a workshop.
Might have to close the roller door .

 

[Keays2myBeamas]

I’m seriously concerned for what’s going to happen in densely populated third world countries. They’re a bit behind on the curve because they’re not as interconnected as rich nations, but it’s grabbed a foothold in most countries and will be spreading like wildfire by the end of April. Whether more people die of the virus or of starvation after governments shut down their economies, I don’t know. They don’t have as many 75+ year olds, but they have just as many weak and vulnerable people. It will be survival of the fittest.
I hope I’m wrong and it doesn’t hurt them too badly because of their young populations.

The other thing I’m concerned about is the military implications of this. If the Americans are severely handicapped by this, then all eyes will be on Taiwan and Hong Kong. What this has really demonstrated is that the Americans don’t have the logistical and swift organisational capabilities people think they have. They have lots of men and lots guns and lots of bombs, but not a lot of smarts. The CCP’s 1000 year plan might be about to accelerate a little - and they might want to strike now while the commander in chief of the US is a bumbling buffoon - and an incredibly unstable, dangerous one at that.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Scott Morrison is GONE at the next election. He’s got the blowback from the bushfires to contend with, LIVE QUESTIONS FROM SPORTS RORTS hanging over his head and now the mishandling of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Morrison is clearly prioritising preserving elements of the economy over people’s lives and in doing so, doing some fairly amoral mathematics about what is an appropriate sacrifice in human life in order to minimise the damage to certain industries or economic sectors. All the while, he refuses to come clean with the Australian people and release the modelling his decisions are based on. Instead, Morrison is treating Australians with disdain by refusing to answer questions and adopting an attitude of paternalistic superiority. That might work from the pulpit, but it is not what we need from a national leader in a time of crisis. This article in The Age today neatly sums my position on Morrison : https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...re-to-trust-his-judgment-20200329-p54f1i.html
Morrison has made two fundamental errors that have cost lives. The first, was his failure to act fast enough on imposing immigration and quarantine measures on people returning to Australia from the United States and the second related to his part in the Ruby Princess debacle. Morrison has decided to make the Ruby Princess disaster a technical issue of Federal / State responsibilities, which is a pathetic shirking of his responsibilities as NATIONAL LEADER. Where was Peter Dutton and Border Force? Why wasn’t Morrison showing leadership and coordinating a NATIONAL APPROACH to the entry of cruise ships? It’s not like this was a problem without precedent.
Finally, Morrison has failed the basic test of being logical and communicating to the Australian people as a whole. He simply can’t get his messaging right. His position on EDUCATION has been a mess and completely contradictory. I am a teacher with a wife who has issues with immunity, so I feel this personally. It is impossible to maintain social distancing at schools. FULL STOP IMPOSSIBLE. Over 30 years of teaching I have observed colds, flu and tummy bugs rip through school populations year in and year out. As Andrew Probyn from the ABC correctly described them, schools are giant PETRIE DISHES. Morrison’s insistence that they stay open in a pandemic was bordering on criminally negligent. He also found himself in the position of arguing simultaneously that teachers would not be put at risk and it was ok for schools to stay open because young people were not transmitting the disease in significant numbers, while at the same time arguing that schools needed to be open to stop young people infecting the public in shopping centres or infecting their grandparents. Well which is it? What I very clearly took away from this was that as a teacher my life and the lives of my family were less important than the lives of others and certainly less important than the economy, which is what really underpinned his position, because at the end of the day he actually wanted teachers to be child minders so that others, not just emergency service workers and doctors could go to work. As it was, 3/4 of parents were keeping their children at home in my school and we were saved by the decisive action of Dan Andrews who closed schools down. Now Morrison’s position on education is that kids should stay at home where they will receive online learning, but if you need to, you can send them to school. How is that going to work? How will teachers provide online learning to one set of students and face to face teaching time to another? Then there is the reemergence of occupational health and safety risks associated with contact with students who are possibly infected. As most other countries have done, schools should be closed, but Morrison won’t allow this at present, because he is still trying to save the economic silverware and given that they usually vote ALP or Greens, what’s a few dead teachers anyway?

 

[luthor]

The other thing I’m concerned about is the military implications of this. If the Americans are severely handicapped by this, then all eyes will be on Taiwan and Hong Kong. What this has really demonstrated is that the Americans don’t have the logistical and swift organisational capabilities people think they have. They have lots of men and lots guns and lots of bombs, but not a lot of smarts. The CCP’s 1000 year plan might be about to accelerate a little - and they might want to strike now while the commander in chief of the US is a bumbling buffoon - and an incredibly unstable, dangerous one at that.

Worries me too.

The CCP has done a fabulous job in changing the narrative through this crisis. From initially covering up Coronavirus and denying it could transmit from human to human, to now planting conspiracy theories about someone, anyone being responsible for this disaster than itself.

It's also been able to portray itself as a model of how to "beat" the disease, which is all very well if you can swallow them passing death sentences on the already infected by locking them in their apartments and waiting for them to die.

Then we have as you say, a total buffoon like Trump who seems to vacillate between taking Covid seriously and treating the thing like a minor inconvenience.
In the entire history of the USA, he surely would have to be the worst possible President to be in charge of a situation like this. His personality is more like Kin Jong Un's than any other leader in the western world. Just not as smart.

He makes George W look like a genius.

Worrying times.

 

[bungalow_bill]

I wish Malcolm Turnbull was the PM through this event.

As much as everyone praises SloMo, he should and could have acted so much quicker on so many of these measures at least a month before, particularly shutting our international borders, given every single measure that has been adopted was inevitable in mid February. (As for SloMo, I've no doubt he would've been much better than the current opposition leader). I will give SloMo one clip though. He had the nerve to congratulate the NSW Premier last night; yes that idiot woman that approved those thousand's people getting off that cruise ship a week and a half. Is he insane, she should be stood immediately and definitely has blood on her hands.

And don't get me started on anyone whinging about being locked up in a hotel room after disembarking a cruise ship. On what planet did any of these morons think it was ok to get on one of these ships after what had occurred with that cruise liner in Japan in early January? It honestly beggars belief.

Turnbull is the only Lib PM I've liked,ever

 

[Gibbo_88]

I understand that all the news has made so many panic but I can't understand wearing gloves and masks ALL THE TIME. There has been plenty of advice about these not being effective unless you have the virus and even then you need to know what you're doing. It's kind of like treating the world as an operating theatre and unless you wash your hands every time before and after you take off gloves and mask, changing gloves multiple times per day and using new masks...it's not helping the situation and a waste of resources.

 

[luthor]

The horrific death tolls continue in Europe.

Nevertheless, March 29 is the first day since March 21 that New Cases(worldwide) have dropped....and quite significantly

Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer

Updated Statistics, graphs, and data tables showing the total number of cases, cases per day, cases by country, cases outside of Hubei in China, recoveries and discharges, newly infected, active cases, outcome of closed cases: death rate vs. recovery rate for patients infected with the COVID-19...

www.worldometers.info

Also the first day since March 16 that New Deaths have fallen....also by a significant margin.

Coronavirus Death Toll and Trends - Worldometer

Updated total and statistics, graphs and charts tracking the total number of deaths, deaths per day, and death by country from the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

Need this to happen for a few more days

 

[Keays2myBeamas]

The horrific death tolls continue in Europe.

Nevertheless, March 29 is the first day since March 21 that New Cases(worldwide) have dropped....and quite significantly

Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer

Updated Statistics, graphs, and data tables showing the total number of cases, cases per day, cases by country, cases outside of Hubei in China, recoveries and discharges, newly infected, active cases, outcome of closed cases: death rate vs. recovery rate for patients infected with the COVID-19...

www.worldometers.info

Also the first day since March 16 that New Deaths have fallen....also by a significant margin.

Coronavirus Death Toll and Trends - Worldometer

Updated total and statistics, graphs and charts tracking the total number of deaths, deaths per day, and death by country from the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

Need this to happen for a few more days

Not sure the full numbers for the 29th from the US are in yet. Only 9.30pm on the west coast.

 

[kylegee28]

If anyone's interested

 

[luthor]

I've been puzzled for a while now, why our statistical "Recovery" rates seem consistently low.

This piece explains why

Charting the COVID-19 spread: Australia passes 10,000 coronavirus deaths

Australia has officially recorded more than 10,000 COVID deaths in total, with 4,000 of those recorded in Victoria. Here's what the latest data shows.

www.abc.net.au

It's pretty long so if you don't want to wade through the whole thing, this is the pertinent part:

Across Australia, at least 281 people have recovered. This figure underestimates the true number of recoveries because it is reported in only four jurisdictions — Victoria, WA, the ACT and Tasmania — and only Victoria reports this figure daily.
A NSW Health media spokeswoman told ABC News it does not report this figure because it is too difficult to define when a person is considered to have recovered from the disease.
However, assuming recoveries are not limited to only four jurisdictions, the national number of confirmed current cases is less than 3,894.

Well i'm gobsmacked.

It beggars belief that there is no agreement across the States as what defines a "recovery" and not only that, assuming the article is accurate, there is absolutely NO data coming from NSW, QLD, SA or NT in this regard

The most meaningful stat in this whole thing is surely the Active cases over time and NOT just a rolling total of how many people have contracted the disease or "Cases". This "Cases" figure always increases. However the Active cases don't necessarily have to as they are a function of Cases and Outcomes

where Outcomes = {no. of Deaths + no of Recoveries]

and

ACTIVE Cases = "Cases"- "Outcomes"

We keep hearing about flattening the curve but how the hell can anyone even construct a curve when the most vital parameter is incomplete?

 

[Gadzorks]

I understand that all the news has made so many panic but I can't understand wearing gloves and masks ALL THE TIME. There has been plenty of advice about these not being effective unless you have the virus and even then you need to know what you're doing. It's kind of like treating the world as an operating theatre and unless you wash your hands every time before and after you take off gloves and mask, changing gloves multiple times per day and using new masks...it's not helping the situation and a waste of resources.

The only advantage of masks for the general population who have poor hygiene by medical standards is that they stop you from touching your face. Which most of us do a hell of a lot.

Daughter has been training and auditing nurses that are learning icu stuff and the average nurse touched their face something like 11 times. These redirected nurses are at a huge risk in icu.

 

[kenberger]

Scott Morrison is GONE at the next election. He’s got the blowback from the bushfires to contend with, LIVE QUESTIONS FROM SPORTS RORTS hanging over his head and now the mishandling of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Morrison is clearly prioritising preserving elements of the economy over people’s lives and in doing so, doing some fairly amoral mathematics about what is an appropriate sacrifice in human life in order to minimise the damage to certain industries or economic sectors. All the while, he refuses to come clean with the Australian people and release the modelling his decisions are based on. Instead, Morrison is treating Australians with disdain by refusing to answer questions and adopting an attitude of paternalistic superiority. That might work from the pulpit, but it is not what we need from a national leader in a time of crisis. This article in The Age today neatly sums my position on Morrison : https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...re-to-trust-his-judgment-20200329-p54f1i.html
Morrison has made two fundamental errors that have cost lives. The first, was his failure to act fast enough on imposing immigration and quarantine measures on people returning to Australia from the United States and the second related to his part in the Ruby Princess debacle. Morrison has decided to make the Ruby Princess disaster a technical issue of Federal / State responsibilities, which is a pathetic shirking of his responsibilities as NATIONAL LEADER. Where was Peter Dutton and Border Force? Why wasn’t Morrison showing leadership and coordinating a NATIONAL APPROACH to the entry of cruise ships? It’s not like this was a problem without precedent.
Finally, Morrison has failed the basic test of being logical and communicating to the Australian people as a whole. He simply can’t get his messaging right. His position on EDUCATION has been a mess and completely contradictory. I am a teacher with a wife who has issues with immunity, so I feel this personally. It is impossible to maintain social distancing at schools. FULL STOP IMPOSSIBLE. Over 30 years of teaching I have observed colds, flu and tummy bugs rip through school populations year in and year out. As Andrew Probyn from the ABC correctly described them, schools are giant PETRIE DISHES. Morrison’s insistence that they stay open in a pandemic was bordering on criminally negligent. He also found himself in the position of arguing simultaneously that teachers would not be put at risk and it was ok for schools to stay open because young people were not transmitting the disease in significant numbers, while at the same time arguing that schools needed to be open to stop young people infecting the public in shopping centres or infecting their grandparents. Well which is it? What I very clearly took away from this was that as a teacher my life and the lives of my family were less important than the lives of others and certainly less important than the economy, which is what really underpinned his position, because at the end of the day he actually wanted teachers to be child minders so that others, not just emergency service workers and doctors could go to work. As it was, 3/4 of parents were keeping their children at home in my school and we were saved by the decisive action of Dan Andrews who closed schools down. Now Morrison’s position on education is that kids should stay at home where they will receive online learning, but if you need to, you can send them to school. How is that going to work? How will teachers provide online learning to one set of students and face to face teaching time to another? Then there is the reemergence of occupational health and safety risks associated with contact with students who are possibly infected. As most other countries have done, schools should be closed, but Morrison won’t allow this at present, because he is still trying to save the economic silverware and given that they usually vote ALP or Greens, what’s a few dead teachers anyway?

Absolutely kidding yourself. The bushfire and sports rorts situations won't even be remembered at the conclusion of this. That's not to discount any mismanagement, it's just the way it is. If the Australian economy somehow scrapes through without a wipeout in standard of living while the infection rate growth remains on track to be manageable and the death rate remains much lower than comparable countries then Morrison will emerge a hero. I've found the communication to be quite good. His messaging is clear and changes as the situation does (which is minute-by-minute). The media's handling of the information? Terrible to the point of negligence. People who jump on things like this in a crisis are just creating panic and nuisance noise. As for the school situation - I actually think it is the teachers and their unions who will come out of this situation with less respect from the general public. I haven't heard any suggestions coming from that camp, only to shut it all down. Perhaps teachers could take an early holiday and open the schools for the 6-8 week Christmas break instead? No way that sort of pragmatism will be discussed at union HQ, but it might give tech teams a fighting chance to implement some form of technology to handle millions of kids studying from home.
And just finally, As an Australian I hope Morrison does emerge a hero because that would be good news for everyone.

 

[BangyBangy]

I understand that all the news has made so many panic but I can't understand wearing gloves and masks ALL THE TIME. There has been plenty of advice about these not being effective unless you have the virus and even then you need to know what you're doing. It's kind of like treating the world as an operating theatre and unless you wash your hands every time before and after you take off gloves and mask, changing gloves multiple times per day and using new masks...it's not helping the situation and a waste of resources.

Saw a lady tonight at the shops wearing gloves. Handling all her groceries, touching the shopping trolley handle, pressing the buttons on the eftpos machine, all while wearing her gloves. Then touched her face, still while wearing the gloves.....