Coronavirus: eradication or suppression?

[Caesar]

Please. Okay, just the cities.

Melbourne
Population: 5 million
Population density per sq km: 453

Ho Chi Minh City
Population: 8.6 million
Population density per sq km: 4097

What do those people do for a living? How much money do they earn? What is their cost of living? How self-supporting and geographically centralised are their family units? etc.

Maybe the real reason Australians think we can't do elimination is because we secretly think we're actually incompetent at governing and following rules.

Maybe the reason is that Melbourne and Ho Chi Minh City are very different places, and perhaps comparing Australia to a country with less than 5% of our GDP per capita is just a little bit silly.

A country that is based mostly on localised subsistence agriculture is more resilient with stuff like this than a modern, developed, globally-interconnected economy like Australia’s. It’s easier for them to shut everything down, and they have less to lose by doing so.

Of course, a lot of that has to do with the fact that they had a lot less to start with.

 

[swingdog]

What do those people do for a living? How much money do they earn? What is their cost of living? How self-supporting and geographically centralised are their family units? etc.


Maybe the reason is that Melbourne and Ho Chi Minh City are very different places, and perhaps comparing Australia to a country with less than 5% of our GDP per capita is just a little bit silly.

A country that is based mostly on localised subsistence agriculture is more resilient with stuff like this than a modern, developed, globally-interconnected economy like Australia’s. It’s easier for them to shut everything down, and they have less to lose by doing so.

Of course, a lot of that has to do with the fact that they had a lot less to start with.

And Taiwan?

Or even closer to home, 6 of the 8 Australian states and territories have now achieved community elimination. It's just Victoria and NSW. They're not special because they have bigger populations. If the other states can do it, so can they.

 

[Caesar]

And Taiwan?

Taiwan is a first class example in favour of the argument for suppression.

Or even closer to home, 6 of the 8 Australian states and territories have now achieved community elimination. It's just Victoria and NSW. They're not special because they have bigger populations. If the other states can do it, so can they.

Realistically the economies of NSW and Victoria are far more sophisticated than the other states, and these bring their own complications over and above their larger populations.

None of this is particularly controversial and to be honest your position seems mostly driven by wishful thinking.

 

[swingdog]

None of this is particularly controversial and to be honest your position seems mostly driven by wishful thinking.

No, more what epidemiologists are suggesting is possible and to be honest, I'm not seeing strong arguments other than "no, we won't" for seriously considering it.

 

[Rob R]

And Taiwan?

Or even closer to home, 6 of the 8 Australian states and territories have now achieved community elimination. It's just Victoria and NSW. They're not special because they have bigger populations. If the other states can do it, so can they.

And NSW had almost achieved elimination until Dan let the nation down and let the virus spread.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Caesar]

No, more what epidemiologists are suggesting is possible

Anything’s possible. What’s realistically achievable is another matter.

Do you think that a 4-6 month lockdown to create an incredibly fragile elimination bubble is worth it? Because I don’t.

I'm not seeing strong arguments other than "no, we won't" for seriously considering it.

The significant economies that have pursued aggressive suppression seem to be the ones coming out of this the best, from both a health and economic standpoint. I’d say that’s a pretty good argument in favour.

 

[swingdog]

Anything’s possible. What’s realistically achievable is another matter.

Do you think that a 4-6 month lockdown to create an incredibly fragile elimination bubble is worth it? Because I don’t.

No, but I doubt we need that long. Tony Blakely has suggested the six weeks is more in line with an elimination strategy rather than just containment, which would need 4 weeks.

 

[Caesar]

No, but I doubt we need that long. Tony Blakely has suggested the six weeks is more in line with an elimination strategy rather than just containment, which would need 4 weeks.

Did you read Blakely’s paper? Because it acknowledged that a six week lockdown only put the odds of elimination at around 50%.

 

[swingdog]

Did you read Blakely’s paper? Because it acknowledged that a six week lockdown only put the odds of elimination at around 50%.

Just going on what he said on radio. There he said the 50/50 figure was based on having good adherence to the rules, but that the time period was more akin to elimination than suppression.

 

[Caesar]

Just going on what he said on radio. There he said the 50/50 figure was based on having good adherence to the rules, but that the time period was more akin to elimination than suppression.

His model assumes a six week lockdown, 90%+ of people wearing masks, all schools closed, and 80% of people put out of work - and still only puts the chances of elimination as a coin flip.

 

[Ok Boomer]

If eradication, even if temporary is a byproduct of suppression, then great. If it wasn't for quarantine mistakes we would have been close right now.

I don't think it is a feasible strategy for Australia, too many people, too many things that could potentially go wrong. My concerns for Australia as a whole with this strategy are the same as WA. You cannot compare NZ, NZ has additional buffers, lower international arrivals and a smaller population than either of our two biggest states. NZ had a couple of big quarantine scares which thankfully weren't costly for them. Vietnam does interest me with their success.

Also, how long can we tell people they have to suspend business or family interests indefinitely interstate, and then overseas?

 

[hoianbulldog]

Believe it or not, health services and governments have considered an elimination strategy, modelled it, and rejected it on practical grounds.

The President of the AMA was interviewed by Sabra Lane this morning and said that the mathematicians and epidemiologists he’d spoken to estimate elimination would require a 4-6 month national lockdown. It’s just not achievable.

Victoria and NSW are completely different beasts compared to smaller states.

I would like to know the starting point of that modelling. When Oz was down to 350 active cases they were a lot closer than 4-6 months from eradication.

 

[Caesar]

I would like to know the starting point of that modelling. When Oz was down to 350 active cases they were a lot closer than 4-6 months from eradication.

He was talking in the context of the current situation, so I presume that is what the modelling is applicable to.

 

[Kwality]

The Conversation: In-depth analysis, research, news and ideas from leading academics and researchers.

Curated by professional editors, The Conversation offers informed commentary and debate on the issues affecting our world. Plus a Plain English guide to the latest developments and discoveries from the university and research sector.

theconversation.com

eradication-elimination-suppression-lets-understand-what-they-mean-before-debating-australias-course-142495

I'm confused with what we are all talking about, basically elimination is a theory, supression has a ring of reality. Then there is 'living with Covid' & thats wishful thinking at best.

Then eradication:'the prospect of eradicating COVID-19 is likely no longer feasible, even with a vaccine'.
'People without symptoms may be able to spread COVID-19, which makes it difficult to identify every infectious case (SARS, for example, was only spread by people with symptoms). And if the virus has an animal host, animal reservoirs would also need to be eradicated.'

The paper quoted is worth a read.

 

[Frank Bunn]

The significant economies that have pursued aggressive suppression seem to be the ones coming out of this the best, from both a health and economic standpoint. I’d say that’s a pretty good argument in favour.

It's worth talking about Sweden in this regard as they have done things differently to everywhere else. They pursued suppression but not aggressively. Large events were cancelled, people were told to stay home if sick, social distancing was encouraged. But workplaces, schools, shops, gyms, playgrounds, bars and restaurants remained open. Mask wearing was not mandated.

They had a higher death toll than other Nordic countries but less than Belgium, UK, Spain and Italy which had more aggressive policies. The high death rate was concentrated in its nursing homes and Stockholm's immigrant population. But other cities recorded very few cases. For example, Malmo had a similar experience to nearby Copenhagen, which had a hard lockdown. Sweden's death rate peaked in April and is now down to a handful per day. The number of new cases peaked in June and has declined significantly since then - only 20 new cases on 21 July.

Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Sweden was the only major economy in the world to record growth in Q1. The Q2 forecast by Capital Economics is for a 4% contraction in GDP – which is about one third of the drop that they forecast in the euro-zone. The Swedish stat for 'Changes In Working Time Due to Covid-19, Decreased a lot' is tiny compared to the rest of Europe.

 

[Caesar]

Sweden’s main economic problem is that they are now an international pariah, and have little hope of getting anyone to reopen their borders to them. That will be far more harmful than any softening of the initial economic contraction they’ve managed to achieve.

 

[Frank Bunn]

Sweden’s main economic problem is that they are now an international pariah, and have little hope of getting anyone to reopen their borders to them. That will be far more harmful than any softening of the initial economic contraction they’ve managed to achieve.

As Sweden's new cases come down it will be harder for other countries to justify that stance. They are currently running about the same numbers as Switzerland and much less than Germany, Portugal and the UK. And Australia!

 

[Les Malone]

surely its going to be hard to justify lockdowns in the future with this type of data surfacing all the time, not that they ever were justified IMO anyway

.......


nobel prize winner

Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013


· 3h
More bad news for the pessimists & nay-sayers https://t.co/XYXMVNSqg0?amp=1 “Six to 24 times more infections were estimated per site with seroprevalence than with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case report data.” CFR reduced by the same factor. COVID as deadly as influenza

and then this as well from slums in Argentina ....

Federico Andres Lois

@federicolois

Replying to
@MLevitt_NP2013
Seroprevalence at Argentinian slums gives a pretty interesting picture. More than half of the population antibody positive, CFR of 1%, 10 times multiplier for a safe calculation of IFR in the 0.1% range. Will have definite numbers soon.

Community-level SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Survey in urban slum dwellers of Buenos Aires City, Argentina: a participatory research.
Background By July 1st, the incidence rate of RT-qPCR SARS-CoV-2 infection was 5.9% in Barrio Padre Mugica, one of the largest slums in Buenos Aires City. This study aimed to establish the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 three months after the first case was reported. Methods Between June 10th and...

t.co


Federico Andres Lois

@federicolois
·
10h

Got confirmation, up to today (not when the seroprevalence happened, it may have increased since then) there are 36 deaths on 40K+ population for an effective IFR of 0.16%

 

[Caesar]

As Sweden's new cases come down it will be harder for other countries to justify that stance. They are currently running about the same numbers as Switzerland and much less than Germany, Portugal and the UK. And Australia!

Sweden are much worse than Australia on a per capita basis and a long way from being at the point where any other countries are comfortable opening up to them. Meanwhile the rest of Europe is opening up and bouncing back. They will miss the fast start that is critical to economic recovery.

That’s not even counting the price in terms of lives they’ve paid. Data coming out of Sweden indicates their strategy has forced doctors to deny ICU access to patients with poor prognoses to preserve beds, effectively condemning many to death.

 

[Kwality]

surely its going to be hard to justify lockdowns in the future with this type of data surfacing all the time, not that they ever were justified IMO anyway




.

So IF we hadnt followed the path we have, do you have a Nostradamus style commentary on where we'd be?
Earlier this week here in Melbourne we had 3 metro hospital EDs closed due to lack of staff to man them, furloughed/away, off quarantined.

I am a fan of theory 'living with covid', where is that theory up to Les?

 

[Les Malone]

So IF we hadnt followed the path we have, do you have a Nostradamus style commentary on where we'd be?
Earlier this week here in Melbourne we had 3 metro hospital EDs closed due to lack of staff to man them, furloughed/away, off quarantined.

I am a fan of theory 'living with covid', where is that theory up to Les?

something constructive would have been to protect the elderly as much as possible and let the rest of us get on with it, their doesn't seem to be any science let alone common sense behind this lockdown

in fact months ago the same people who are being vindicated now were deplatformed from the MSM and social media, why? why wasn't both sides of the lockdown argument discussed openly, what science and whose science was behind it ?

just today ... it has been revealed the UK locked down after the infection rate was falling and they knew it -why ?




I think its nothing more than a scam quite frankly, now they deem masks a necessity in the UK and Ireland when it has all but disappeared, i think we need to deal with life and death a bit better in this country and realize this is not the Armageddon it was made out to be our elected officials should be a lot stronger

 

[Kwality]

months ago the same people who are being vindicated now were deplatformed from the MSM and social media, why?

Who/what are you talking about & how are they relevant?

Earlier I mentioned EDs in Melbourne, one of the people who returned to work earlier this week has been furloughed AGAIN today. ED staff dont grow on trees.

 

[Frank Bunn]

Sweden are much worse than Australia on a per capita basis and a long way from being at the point where any other countries are comfortable opening up to them. Meanwhile the rest of Europe is opening up and bouncing back. They will miss the fast start that is critical to economic recovery.

That’s not even counting the price in terms of lives they’ve paid. Data coming out of Sweden indicates their strategy has forced doctors to deny ICU access to patients with poor prognoses to preserve beds, effectively condemning many to death.

Sweden recorded 132 new cases yesterday. That's about one case per 80k people. Australia had 468 new cases, one per 53k. So Sweden is better. Australia's cases are continuing to rise, with the inevitable resulting death toll. Whereas Sweden's infection rate has been declining for a month.

Sweden doesn't need to open up, because they never closed. I linked you to an economics report that said Sweden is forecast to fare better than countries in the Euro zone.

They certainly paid a high price with the number of fatalities. In the early days they failed to protect aged care residents. It wasn't necessarily an indictment of their strategy. The UK and now Australia has had the same problem under harder lockdown strategies. There is evidence that countries with hard lockdowns have caused many people with serious health conditions to avoid seeking treatment. There is also a high price to be paid for mass long term unemployment, children not attending school, people not being able to socialise for months at a time.

 

[Mateyman]

As Sweden's new cases come down it will be harder for other countries to justify that stance. They are currently running about the same numbers as Switzerland and much less than Germany, Portugal and the UK. And Australia!

Why would you use absolute numbers when Germany has 8 times as many people as Sweden?

 

[Mateyman]

Sweden recorded 132 new cases yesterday. That's about one case per 80k people. Australia had 468 new cases, one per 53k. So Sweden is better. Australia's cases are continuing to rise, with the inevitable resulting death toll. Whereas Sweden's infection rate has been declining for a month.

Sweden doesn't need to open up, because they never closed. I linked you to an economics report that said Sweden is forecast to fare better than countries in the Euro zone.

They certainly paid a high price with the number of fatalities. In the early days they failed to protect aged care residents. It wasn't necessarily an indictment of their strategy. The UK and now Australia has had the same problem under harder lockdown strategies. There is evidence that countries with hard lockdowns have caused many people with serious health conditions to avoid seeking treatment. There is also a high price to be paid for mass long term unemployment, children not attending school, people not being able to socialise for months at a time.

Where's the evidence of this in Australia where we didn't let the virus run rampant?
Also why would you do a one day comparison when Swedish numbers drop a few days a week regularly due to patterns in reporting? Unless it was because it fits your narrative?