Seeing what’s happened in Europe makes it pretty clear. They were able to hold hundreds of cases per day consistently. Even without good contact tracing it doesn’t take a whole lot to get R below 1 in summer. Winter is a very different story.It's also worth noting Japan and South Korea, two countries that had done well up to now are struggling big time. Many countries hadn't seen a winter with COVID - it's pretty clear that there is a seasonal aspect to it.