Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

[Chief]

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Roby]

I don't think you understand limits.
I'll dumb it down for you.

The kindergarten teacher brings in a basket of lollypops.
She tells you that there are two each.
Everyone takes 2, except Johnny takes 5.
The last few kids cry because they miss out.

The teacher tells the whole class off and tells them that because they were so naughty they will only get one lollypop tomorrow.

The law was "maximum 2 lollypops"
The reason for the law was clear.

Does reducing the law to 1 lollypop fix the problem?

Your lollipops were infected. Nobody gets any lollipops. Are you going to cry because you don't get your lollipop? Did you want the other kids to die?

 

[Roby]

SO THAT WE DON"T OVERRUN OUR HEALTH SYSTEM

So if you fully lockdown that will overrun the health system?

 

[Roby]

That's the response from the National Medical Officer every time the lock down gets mentioned...

I don't have the answer, I'm just posing the question?

I reckon you're smarter than Brendan. Unless... Yeah I don't what to say.

I can't believe our CMO are so stupid. This epidemic has surely shown the best and the worst of everyone.

 

[Coolangatta]

The Deputy Chief Medical Officer just said again, no more than 5 minutes ago: “I don’t think we can eliminate the virus without a vaccine, no.”

So what is everyone's proposed solution? Herd immunity via 60% of the population becoming infected and recovering, or a lockdown of the country for 18 months until a vaccine is available and widely distributed?

Neither. Rollback the measures, but keep social distancing, 500+ outdoor gatherings, 100+ indoor gatherings, and international travel ban in place. No need to shut down the entire economy, though. I'd also keep domestic travel ban, which yes, would * up the AFL plans to restart the season, but this is bigger than the *in AFL. * em. Not our fault they're in a financial hard spot because there's too many teams in the competition.

 

[theyellowsash]

I don't think you understand limits.
I'll dumb it down for you.

The kindergarten teacher brings in a basket of lollypops.
She tells you that there are two each.
Everyone takes 2, except Johnny takes 5.
The last few kids cry because they miss out.

The teacher tells the whole class off and tells them that because they were so naughty they will only get one lollypop tomorrow.

The law was "maximum 2 lollypops"
The reason for the law was clear.

Does reducing the law to 1 lollypop fix the problem?

rules and regulations are imposed exactly because not everyone is considerate or smart enough to know what a reasonable action is, with limits used to allow some ability to do the thing and as a guide for what is reasonable. when those limits are exceeded by people frequently, then those limits get lowered because clearly people still are not obeying. eventually that limit may become 0 if people still dont obey. all laws have to work to the dumbest/campaigneries lowest denominator.

id suggest if you want to stop getting speeding tickets, stop speeding.

 

[compact72]

The Deputy Chief Medical Officer just said again, no more than 5 minutes ago: “I don’t think we can eliminate the virus without a vaccine, no.”

So what is everyone's proposed solution? Herd immunity via 60% of the population becoming infected and recovering, or a lockdown of the country for 18 months until a vaccine is available and widely distributed?

Heard that as well. Interesting times, it's like their waiting for winter before they take some restrictions off

If we can't eliminate the virus without a vaccine, we could be in lockdown for quite a while (6 months +). Will take 1 person for the spread to outbreak again

He also mentioned the vaccine could be 12 - 18 months away and nobody has had success in creating a vaccine. A bit early, I don't think everybody knows fully what the virus can do

 

[Roby]

The Deputy Chief Medical Officer just said again, no more than 5 minutes ago: “I don’t think we can eliminate the virus without a vaccine, no.”

So what is everyone's proposed solution? Herd immunity via 60% of the population becoming infected and recovering, or a lockdown of the country for 18 months until a vaccine is available and widely distributed?

They are morons or think we don't do science at school.

Yes the virus can die. You stop transmission. It's not like covid-19 is intelligent which to find a place to cryogenically freeze itself and come back again. Once transmission stops it can't reproduce. Just like ALL life. Once you are the last of your species and can't replicate, that's it, extinction.

Of course that doesn't mean other countries won't have it. You can eradicate it from our island and put measures in place for quarantine until a vaccine is achieved.

 

[D-N-R]

Out of 500 posts (on a different thread mind you) I've posted on Covid-19 you found one? And what's wrong with this one? Are you capable of rebutting? Can you not the errors so I can see?

The claim that you have a 1 in 30 chance of dying from Covid19. Which you have deleted.

Most of what you post is opinion. We should have acted faster, more shutdowns, shut down earlier etc. Much of it shrill and alarmist. None of which can be proven either way or until this is over.

I posted something with sources and you responded with a gif. Either debate it or don't respond at all.

 

[Roby]

The claim that you have a 1 in 30 chance of dying from Covid19. Which you have deleted.

Most of what you post is opinion. We should have acted faster, more shutdowns, shut down earlier etc. Much of it shrill and alarmist. None of which can be proven either way or until this is over.

I posted something with sources and you responded with a gif. Either debate it or don't respond at all.

I deleted? It's still there. Liar or ignorant?

I said one in thirty or one in a thousand depending on what data you want to look at. Check what the World Health Organisation has it at. Just scroll to the bottom of the article.

22yo's 'scary' virus symptoms

Coronavirus is most dangerous for the elderly and sick but that doesn't mean if you're young and healthy you won't experience horror symptoms, a US woman has warned.

www.news.com.au

Oh btw even if this is a bad post out 500, that's one, so I'm posting well 99.98% of the time. I guess I'll keep posting a lot more. Now should I check yours posts or predictions?

 

[Hawkk]

The problem with doing things like scaling the data is that on paper it works, in the real world, not so much.

See you've scaled this by taking 140,000, dividing that by the US population and taking the end number, multiplied it by Australia's population and ended up with 10,000. Perfectly logical on paper.

Lets apply it to Italy. That scale would have them at 25k deaths, they are over half that and they haven't flattened the curve yet. Confident that death toll won't double?

How about Spain, again should be 19k deaths but they've just about halved that already. With their hospital system now collapsing you wanna argue they won't double their current figure?

Of course,

However if you look at patterns between countries,

For example...

Since the first World War there have been 5 global pandemics...

Spanish Flu (is the easiest data to track)
USA - 675000 deaths / 104.5m (33% infected) = 1.92% (according to the CDC)
UK - 228000 deaths / 45m (40% infected) = 1.28% (according to the NHS)
Italy - 410000 deaths / 39m (40% infected) = 2.6% (according to this paper - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29525806)
Germany - 426600 deaths / 41m (40% infected) = 2.6% (according to this paper - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26984565)
Australia - 15000 deaths / 5.4m (40% infected) = 0.78% (according to the NMA)

1957 Asian Flu
USA - 116000 deaths / 172m (infection rate unknown) (according to the CDC)
UK - 30000 deaths / 57m (15% infected) =0.32% (the Indepedent)
Italy - no data
West Germany - 29100 deaths / 52m (infection rate unknown)
Australia - no data

1968-69 Hong Kong Flu
USA - 70000 to 100000 deaths / 200m (infection rate unknown) (according to the CDC)
UK - 78000 / 57m (6% infected) = 1.53% (the Indepedent)
Italy - no data
West Germany - 46900 / 59.65m (infection rate unknown) (according to this paper - according to this paper - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26984565)
Australia - no data

2009 Swine Flu
USA - 12469 deaths / 320m (20% infection) = 0.02% (according to the CDC)
UK - 392 deaths / 28562 cases (infection rate unknown) = 0.04% case mortality rate (according to the NHS)
Italy - 178 deaths / 3593 cases (infection rate unknown) = 0.05 case mortality rate
Germany - 122 deaths / 203713 (infection rate unknown) = 0.005% case mortality rate
Australia - 191 deaths / 37537 (infection rate unknown) = 0.05% case mortality rate

I'm not sure whether the Spanish Flu, the Asian Flu or the Hong Kong Flu took out more in Australia than was reported but I guess consistency in reporting deaths from pandemics has been a problem that has been around for at least 100 years.

On Italy, another article about their reporting here -

Italy’s Mild Flu Season May Give Clues to Virus Death Rate

Italy has posed a conundrum in the coronavirus pandemic: How could a country with just 60 million inhabitants rack up more deaths than any other nation in the world?

www.bloomberg.com

To say that 100k to 250k would die from the Covid-19 virus in the USA is very optimisitc given its relatively high mortality rates relative to Western Europe and Australia in past flu pandemics.

The Indepedent source - https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...ng-spark-fears-of-global-epidemic-119660.html

 

[Hawkk]

I reckon you're smarter than Brendan. Unless... Yeah I don't what to say.

I can't believe our CMO are so stupid. This epidemic has surely shown the best and the worst of everyone.

I hope you're right, it seems that the Australian advice is swimming against the global tied of opinion (although I notice that the UK also recently made comments about six months of self isolation measures as well)

UK coronavirus live: up to six months to see if measures have 'squashed' virus, says deputy chief medical officer – as it happened

Local government secretary Robert Jenrick says frontline NHS workers should not be without protective equipment as UK death toll rises to 1,228

www.theguardian.com

 

[Fadge]

The Deputy Chief Medical Officer just said again, no more than 5 minutes ago: “I don’t think we can eliminate the virus without a vaccine, no.”

So what is everyone's proposed solution? Herd immunity via 60% of the population becoming infected and recovering, or a lockdown of the country for 18 months until a vaccine is available and widely distributed?

Yeah, this is what I don't understand. I'm failing to see an endpoint to this in the medium term.

And this is why seeing any more AFL in 2020 is a pipe dream, and makes the decision to start the season absolutely ludicrous.

 

[Purple Suit]

I don't think you understand limits.
I'll dumb it down for you.

The kindergarten teacher brings in a basket of lollypops.
She tells you that there are two each.
Everyone takes 2, except Johnny takes 5.
The last few kids cry because they miss out.

The teacher tells the whole class off and tells them that because they were so naughty they will only get one lollypop tomorrow.

The law was "maximum 2 lollypops"
The reason for the law was clear.

Does reducing the law to 1 lollypop fix the problem?

Expect your analogy is not comparable to the beach problem.

Because of Johnny, the teacher is now handing out 2 lolly pop to all kids while they sit at their desks. Some kids are pissed off, as they want to do it and have been very good. Unfortunately Johnny stuffed it for everyone and it is too hard to enforce with Johnny likely to do it again.

 

[Coolangatta]

As many people as possible who can work/study from home should.

 

[theyellowsash]

They are morons or think we don't do science at school.

Yes the virus can die. You stop transmission. It's not like covid-19 is intelligent which to find a place to cryogenically freeze itself and come back again. Once transmission stops it can't reproduce. Just like ALL life. Once you are the last of your species and can't replicate, that's it, extinction.

Of course that doesn't mean other countries won't have it. You can eradicate it from our island and put measures in place for quarantine until a vaccine is achieved.

And as America has seen, even if a disease is eradicated through vaccination, it can come back when people stop vaccinating.

 

[Roby]

I hope you're right, it seems that the Australian advice is swimming against the global tied of opinion (although I notice that the UK also recently made comments about six months of self isolation measures as well)

UK coronavirus live: up to six months to see if measures have 'squashed' virus, says deputy chief medical officer – as it happened

Local government secretary Robert Jenrick says frontline NHS workers should not be without protective equipment as UK death toll rises to 1,228

www.theguardian.com

I liken it to people who play texas hold-em with bad starting hands like 6,8' offsuit or playing A9 or A10 into a raise. Sure you might get lucky and win but overall it's a bad strategy and lose in the long run.

Just because the results for now are good doesn't mean this is the best strategy.

Nearly everyone here was calling us alarmists saying Italy was an outlier. Now Italy has become the norm and Australia is an outlier. But we haven't followed the same models as South Korea or Singapore.

So like the poker anology sometimes you play bad hands but you still get lucky. But luck will eventually run out. Our leaders are suffering confirmation bias just like they did in Spain and now in the US. That's what you have to look at. They're not changing their strategy unless they start to run out of more chips to play with. Then there hands will be forced and they will have to go all in. Don't say we didn't warn you. We were never bluffing.

 

[theyellowsash]

Expect your analogy is not comparable to the beach problem.

Because of Johnny, the teacher is now handing out 2 lolly pop to all kids while they sit at their desks. Some kids are pissed off, as they want to do it and have been very good. Unfortunately Johnny stuffed it for everyone and it is too hard to enforce with Johnny likely to do it again.

also that reminds me of something...

 

[BigPond101]

I don't think there will be a vaccine. This 18 months everyone talks about is like the perfect, dream scenario where everything goes smoothly and is rushed through without a single problem or side effect. Apparently this never happens in real life. 18 months is just what they are telling us so people feel like they have a light at the end of the tunnel

 

[Forward Press]

I don't think there will be a vaccine. This 18 months everyone talks about is like the perfect, dream scenario where everything goes smoothly and is rushed through without a single problem or side effect. Apparently this never happens in real life. 18 months is just what they are telling us so people feel like they have a light at the end of the tunnel

H1N1 (swine flu) took 9 months from initial epidemic to release of the vaccine. It can be done and I suspect given how serious this is that the world is throwing everything at it on another magnitude compared to swine flu.

 

[kreglze]

So what happens when we get to September/October and the lock down is still in effect, with the government, wage and mortgage assistance cut off. People will begin to get wound up and soon we need to worry about rioting and looting? Or something to that effect, if it doesn't take place earlier than that. People will only comply for so long as they can see an end in sight, if there is no end, people will get desperate.

Edit: FWIW, I support the lockdown and it is needed, but some people will less patience then others may begin to question it.

 

[Schnitzengruben]

ITT: Unqualified bogans trying to debate one another on unsubstantiated science.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

rules and regulations are imposed exactly because not everyone is considerate or smart enough to know what a reasonable action is, with limits used to allow some ability to do the thing and as a guide for what is reasonable. when those limits are exceeded by people frequently, then those limits get lowered because clearly people still are not obeying. eventually that limit may become 0 if people still dont obey. all laws have to work to the dumbest/campaigneries lowest denominator.

id suggest if you want to stop getting speeding tickets, stop speeding.

That's what happens yes.
Its a wrong response. Not logical at all but people like yourself can't see the flaw.

We need the people to obey. We don't need a lower limit.
Simply not logical to say , people are not obeying so lets chuck on a factor to allow for it.
You drop your limit to 0. People disobeying are still disobeying.
People who want to do the right thing are punished severely by not being able to drive.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Expect your analogy is not comparable to the beach problem.

Because of Johnny, the teacher is now handing out 2 lolly pop to all kids while they sit at their desks. Some kids are pissed off, as they want to do it and have been very good. Unfortunately Johnny stuffed it for everyone and it is too hard to enforce with Johnny likely to do it again.

Johnny can still go to another beach that isn't closed.
It wasn't closing the beaches that stopped this behaviour. It was police presence and the threat of huge fines.

 

[Coconut_twirl]

I don't think there will be a vaccine. This 18 months everyone talks about is like the perfect, dream scenario where everything goes smoothly and is rushed through without a single problem or side effect. Apparently this never happens in real life. 18 months is just what they are telling us so people feel like they have a light at the end of the tunnel

If lockdown and draconian social distancing measures go on for another 12 to 18 months I can picture many people getting very restless and law and order becoming a problem. Interesting times ahead.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

also that reminds me of something...

Yep, they imposed a limit, and the dick's still found a way to do multiple trips.
Its the policing of the limit that is important though.

But there were also busloads of organised hoarders visiting country towns, so a bit more to it than just a few Bogans i think.