Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

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This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -


Part Two can be found here -


Part 4 can be found here:



Australian stats page:



 
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Sep 23, 2006
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So this is what happens when there's panic buying & the tin foil brigade can't buy enough foil for their hats?

If you don't believe the data--- that's fine, but maybe you might want to go back into lockdown. If the Victorian CHO data can't be trusted, I'm not sure if you can trust the Western Australian CHO either? ;)

Data??? ROFLMAO!

We have no cases (other than 4 recent arrivals from overseas, safely locked up in hotels guarded by decent security guards). Our data fits on the back of a matchbox.
 
I've said this numerous times, Herd Immunity is unachievable because people don't want to be infected. There is no price to pay. People aren't willing to put up their lives "for the greater good" if given the choice.

Look at Sweden and even Brazil to an extent. Choice given and people place their own personal restrictive measures.

Clear example of when a choice is given people will generally place their own lockdowns irrespective of authority.

Where do you draw that conclusion? Brazil is doing horrendously and Sweden's numbers are worse than most of Europe and all of its neighbours.
 
Relevance? Why do I have to "whinge" more about something else to make a point here? The point was that the protests were stupid because of the timing, to suggest that it had no influence is laughable. Were it done at a time where we weren't suffering a global pandemic I'd be 100% behind it.

You keep on citing "3" like it's some kind of set-in-stone number. Fact is, you don't know how many people had the virus there and neither does the government or Sutton. Epidemiology is a science of of estimation. Learn to embrace it and accept the fact that it's more likely you'll catch something from a group of 10k people in the middle of a pandemic, than in a high school with several hundred kids spread apart.

....so your entire premise is that there MAY be more cases from a protest so you're going to rant about a BLM Protest because you THINK it was more risky.

Yet you believe that schools are a safer environment, despite more confirmed cases because you believe that students are "spread apart". :rolleyes:

Do you really think that teenage boys would spend all day 1.5 metres apart? Not spend their recess & lunch hugging each other? Not hug, play wrestle and high-five their friends all day?

The data doesn't show the full story, because no matter how much you ramp testing, you cannot test the majority of the population. The best we can do are educated guesses.

Just watch, those numbers will keep steady to the point where Andrews will have no choice but to lockdown again. Was always going to be inevitable with a 2nd wave.

Hey, at least we're not the US... who are still on the first wave.

I agree with you that the numbers will keep rising and it's quite likely that Victoria will have to lock down again.

It's just that I am making an educated guess on where the new cases are coming from based on all of the restrictions that have been lifted in the past month, where the confirmed cases are coming from and the responses from the Victorian government rather than focusing on one specific event.
 

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Data??? ROFLMAO!

We have no cases (other than 4 recent arrivals from overseas, safely locked up in hotels guarded by decent security guards). Our data fits on the back of a matchbox.

So Victorian Chief Health Officer can't be trusted because they are supported by Leftwaffle public servants and Victoria has a Labor state government , but the WA Chief Health Officer can be trusted because they are supported by Leftwaffle public servants and WA has a Labor State government?

Got it! ;)
 

Clems Knee

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It's to demonstrate that chief medical officers can be wrong.

People's anger with the protests is justified; they're doing it in the middle of a pandemic and putting the health of people at risk. Why have restrictions otherwise?

PS. I don't use Facebook and watch Sky, and if you knew anything about me, I'm not even close to conservative lol. Why does everything "have" to have a political bias? Good god... the science doesn't give a sh*t about that stuff.

I actually agree that the timing of the BLM protests was poor. That American cop chose a terrible time to murder a man slowly with video capturing it.
The resulting anger was totally justified.

In Australia the protests weren’t just to support the American protests, but also to draw attention to the continuing racism in Australia. The timing was also terrible.

People are justifiably angry that Victoria is experiencing a spike in infections, and want to blame something.
Those just blaming the BLM protests for the spike are not looking at the Science, when there are other better candidates for responsibility.
I agree that the protests shouldn’t have happened at that time, but can understand why they did.
I am more angry that the spread appears to have come from security guards sharing a durrie with quarantined travellers. That’s just breaking protocols because you don’t give a s**t.
 

Ash1337

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Question about the code lockdown but are those players that live in those areas are also in lockdown. Also Whitten oval is in west footscray what does that mean for bulldogs?
 
....so your entire premise is that there MAY be more cases from a protest so you're going to rant about a BLM Protest because you THINK it was more risky.

Yet you believe that schools are a safer environment, despite more confirmed cases because you believe that students are "spread apart". :rolleyes:

Do you really think that teenage boys would spend all day 1.5 metres apart? Not spend their recess & lunch hugging each other? Not hug, play wrestle and high-five their friends all day?
How do you think the field of epidemiology study their discipline?

Ultimately it's a numbers game. Confirmed cases isn't the actual number of cases, so I don't know why you keep on pulling that up as some kind of ultimate authority.

It's almost like you've never been to a school. Students aren't packed together tightly like you saw in the protest - there's 20-30 typically per class (less if there's more classes), spread apart all over the school. Recess and lunch, people lounge around in their own groups, play sport, read a book, whatever.

How in the flying freck can you attribute that as the same level of risk (or worse) to thousands of people standing practically shoulder to shoulder in a relatively enclosed space like a city street or in front of the state library? It makes ZERO logical sense. I'm not talking about social distancing, I am talking about the potential rate of transmission. That school kids hug, wrestle or high-five is irrelevant. The amount of aerosol droplets along from people breathing would be enough. Now, amplify this by thousands in an area that's much smaller than a whole school. You can do all the immature, stupid emojis you want but rationale of the numbers involved is sound.

It's just that I am making an educated guess on where the new cases are coming from based on all of the restrictions that have been lifted in the past month, where the confirmed cases are coming from and the responses from the Victorian government rather than focusing on one specific event.
Yet you are neglecting unconfirmed cases, which there's bound to be much more of given the nature of how this virus spreads. It has an R0 of ~3-4, that means for every person, 3-4 people will get infected from it. It rises exponentially. That's why I'm drilling it into you that the protest, mathematically, is much worse than a school. A confirmed case of 3 doesn't mean there's only 3 people with the virus. Simply put, the more people in an area, the higher the chance to get a virus. This is fundamental, common sense stuff. Why are you denying it?
 
Sep 23, 2006
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So Victorian Chief Health Officer can't be trusted because they are supported by Leftwaffle public servants and Victoria has a Labor state government , but the WA Chief Health Officer can be trusted because they are supported by Leftwaffle public servants and WA has a Labor State government?

Got it! ;)

You haven't got anything.

(1) It's Leftwaffe. There is no 'l'.

(2) Everyone bar a few idiots could see what was going to happen. Just before the protests your new daily cases were in single digits. In fact in the 24 hours before the day of the protests you recorded no new cases. Some health department officials were reportedly advising the protestors "there's going to be a second wave anyway, go for your life". Within 14 days of the protests you started seeing new daily cases in the twenties. The fact that it's now all turned into a complete shitshow and they're trying to blame a few family BBQ's to cover their tracks and absolve themselves of all blame, is so transparent only a noddy can't see it. “There are lies, there are damned lies, and then there are statistics” - Winston Churchill.
 
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jatz14

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First of all - I am not a conspiracy theorist, but have just been following the numbers. It is an undeniable fact the death rates thankfully are far lower than projected, and the disease less severe, otherwise our ICU’s during the peak would have been full.

The reality is that NEXT time we will need to manage a Pandemic in another way because we will not have another 200 Billion to throw at the problem.
We may be forced to use the Swedish model.
The next pandemic could be with a disease with 10x the fatality rate.

Hell, this pandemic could turn out to be with a virus that causes long term health implications. Its already known that the long term affects can be significantly worse than flu. What if people that caught it start dropping in 5 - 10 years. This is what is wrong with the Swedish model, its assuming once you recover from the acute infection, thats it. But we dont know that at all.
 
Sep 23, 2006
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The next pandemic could be with a disease with 10x the fatality rate.

Hell, this pandemic could turn out to be with a virus that causes long term health implications. Its already known that the long term affects can be significantly worse than flu. What if people that caught it start dropping in 5 - 10 years. This is what is wrong with the Swedish model, its assuming once you recover from the acute infection, thats it. But we dont know that at all.

I think lung scarring and/or fibrosis is an already mentioned complication. I remember reading something about that in February.
 

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Yeah, Covid isn't the flu, despite what people say, but its not HUGELY worse, and it could be. Imagine what the US would be like now, if 1 in 10 were dying.
Always the chance of this thing mutating to a deadlier strain. The only silver lining with that is that the really deadly ones aren't that successful because too many hosts die.
 
Sep 23, 2006
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It seems Victoria's Deputy CHO is no stranger to controversy. There were calls for her head in April after she tweeted this ...

Sudden arrival of an invader from another land, decimating populations, creating terror. Forces the population to make enormous sacrifices & completely change how they live in order to survive. COVID19 or Cook 1770? — Dr Annaliese van Diemen (@annaliesevd) April 29, 2020
https://twitter.com/annaliesevd/status/1255289781686276096?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Not so hard to see how a Leftwaffe clique could thrive and flourish in the Department after seeing that.
 

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How do you think the field of epidemiology study their discipline?

Ultimately it's a numbers game. Confirmed cases isn't the actual number of cases, so I don't know why you keep on pulling that up as some kind of ultimate authority.

It's almost like you've never been to a school. Students aren't packed together tightly like you saw in the protest - there's 20-30 typically per class (less if there's more classes), spread apart all over the school. Recess and lunch, people lounge around in their own groups, play sport, read a book, whatever.

How in the flying freck can you attribute that as the same level of risk (or worse) to thousands of people standing practically shoulder to shoulder in a relatively enclosed space like a city street or in front of the state library? It makes ZERO logical sense. I'm not talking about social distancing, I am talking about the potential rate of transmission. That school kids hug, wrestle or high-five is irrelevant. The amount of aerosol droplets along from people breathing would be enough. Now, amplify this by thousands in an area that's much smaller than a whole school. You can do all the immature, stupid emojis you want but rationale of the numbers involved is sound.


Yet you are neglecting unconfirmed cases, which there's bound to be much more of given the nature of how this virus spreads. It has an R0 of ~3-4, that means for every person, 3-4 people will get infected from it. It rises exponentially. That's why I'm drilling it into you that the protest, mathematically, is much worse than a school. A confirmed case of 3 doesn't mean there's only 3 people with the virus. Simply put, the more people in an area, the higher the chance to get a virus. This is fundamental, common sense stuff. Why are you denying it?

and yet, it didn’t happen
 

Ricmel

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Not so hard to see how a Leftwaffe clique could thrive and flourish in the Department after seeing that.

What are you trying to say? Luftwaffe - as in German airforce or Leftwaffle as in politicians from the left that waffle? Or what is Leftwaffe?
 
How many people in a relatively small area is safe then??

1,000 students & teachers at a school who would have significantly closer contact across a 6 hour school day? Is that safe?


I’m not saying the protest was safe—- just saying the frustration towards the spike in cases is being directed in the wrong way if the focus is on the BLM protest rather than the premature opening of schools (where over a dozen cases have been found in the past 3 weeks) & large family gatherings compared to a protest where 4 people in attendance may’ve had the virus at the time of their attendance.
It’s true.
Opening schools was dumb, having a protest in a lockdown was dumb, having selfish family gatherings was dumb, seemingly having dumb people as security at quarantine hotels was dumb And now here in Victoria we just all look dumb.
Let’s just not be dumb anymore and do our bit as a state.
Easier said than done I know.
 
Looking ahead though, when do we just accept that we are just going to have to live with this virus eventually?
Can’t see any other outcome.
 
Sep 23, 2006
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What are you trying to say? Luftwaffe - as in German airforce or Leftwaffle as in politicians from the left that waffle? Or what is Leftwaffe?

Take your pick

Leftwaffe n. a brood of totalitarian cuckoos bent on hijacking the noble traditions of the Left.

Leftwaffe, The – The droning, mechanical formations of SJW’s that carpet bomb social media with hashtags and believe they are superior to all others.

The term was used by a few in the Brexit debate.
 
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Pessimistic

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You haven't got anything.

(1) It's Leftwaffe. There is no 'l'.

(2) Everyone bar a few idiots could see what was going to happen. Just before the protests your new daily cases were in single digits. In fact in the 24 hours before the day of the protests you recorded no new cases. Some health department officials were reportedly advising the protestors "there's going to be a second wave anyway, go for your life". Within 14 days of the protests you started seeing new daily cases in the twenties. The fact that it's now all turned into a complete shitshow and they're trying to blame a few family BBQ's to cover their tracks and absolve themselves of all blame, is so transparent only a noddy can't see it. “There are lies, there are damned lies, and then there are statistics” - Winston Churchill.

these dodos seem only good for making up lame nicknames
 
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