Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

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Gralin

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This is part Four.

Part One can be found here -


Part Two can be found here -


Part Three can be found here -

Australian stats page:



 
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Simon Crawshay

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You're giving too much credit to Vic Pol.

They just had a matter of assaulting a guy with a disability that they were doing a welfare check on.
I disagree with your outlook on Vic Police but how could you possibly argue that a bunch of private guards who most likely found their license in the bottom of a packet of cornflakes would have been a better option than ADF personal?

One of the ADF roles is to go to places like the Pacific Islands and offer assistance after natural disasters like cyclones (including sanitation related assistance) so they are well trained in emergency response such as we are experiencing now with the pandemic. Plus they would have a level of medical training higher than whatever muppet Wilson Security hired via a Watapp chat forum.

These security guards are really the very definition of unskilled labour and to let them run the program unsupervised was so, so reckless it beggars belief.
 

kranky al

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I disagree with your outlook on Vic Police but how could you possibly argue that a bunch of private guards who most likely found their license in the bottom of a packet of cornflakes would have been a better option than ADF personal?

One of the ADF roles is to go to places like the Pacific Islands and offer assistance after natural disasters like cyclones (including sanitation related assistance) so they are well trained in emergency response such as we are experiencing now with the pandemic. Plus they would have a level of medical training higher than whatever muppet Wilson Security hired via a Watapp chat forum.

These security guards are really the very definition of unskilled labour and to let them run the program unsupervised was so, so reckless it beggars belief.
The other thing about the adf is theres a fu}# load more discipline involved.

The security guard prolly got sacked

A soldier would spend 3-6 months in services correctional establishment which is to a jail what the afl is to little league.
 

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Simon Crawshay

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The other thing about the adf is theres a fu}# load more discipline involved.

The security guard prolly got sacked

A soldier would spend 3-6 months in services correctional establishment which is to a jail what the afl is to little league.
Yes exactly.

To these security guards it's just a casual gig where they get paid $20 cash in hand to stand around for a couple of hours then they go and drive and Uber (it happened with a number of the guards who tested positive)

To an ADF or VIC Police member this is a (relatively) well paid career and if they stuff up like these guards did their whole career is in jeapordy (or even spending time in the brig in the case of ADF as you already mentioned).

The only justification I have heard for using these guards was something about "social inclusion" which is a line of reasoning that makes my blood turn cold that they would even consider this a valid line of thought when dealing with a one in a hundred year pandemic.
 

josephine666

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Personally I take issue with people moving blame away from the Andrews government for the second wave and blaming the individuals involved (dodgy security guards / dodgy guests).

The fact of the matter is that when you run a quarantine program you need to account for the fact that a certain percentage of people will try and "game" the system. I mean this is why we have a police force, it would be nice to expect everyone to obey the law and act ethically but that just doesn't happen in rel life

If they had of had ADF / police running the quarantine (or at least overseeing the private guards) I strongly doubt we would be in this s..t house position we find ourselves in now.

I still cannot get my head around the fact that for some reason the state government outsourced the running of a quarantine program (the most important part of our pandemic response) for the greatest health crisis in 100 years to a bunch of Nightclub Bouncers.

I have thought about it a lot and I am still baffled by the logic (or lack thereof). If they were the only option then I guess that would make some kind of weird sense but they had 800 ADF troops on standby twiddling their thumbs (plus god knows how many Police).
I'm not moving blame away from Andrews, someone under him made a monumentally stupid decision to use unskilled workers in an activity that was critical to ensuring the safety of the community. He is in charge and is ultimately responsible. Nevertheless I would rather he was able to get on with fixing the problem. That should be the focus of the government right now.

Apparently in WA the quarantine security have no power to physically stop those leaving the hotel. SA is allowing international students to fly in. Monumentally stupid decisions are not restricted to the Victorian government. Quarantine hotels are the source of our community spread. You'd think others would learn from our mistakes.
 

josephine666

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Just worry about your own problems ,,everyone else is doing fine
I think you may have missed my point. It doesn't take much to go from fine to fiasco. The vast majority of deaths in Victoria have been traced to 2 people in hotel quarantine. My mum lives in Adelaide so on a personal level I am more concerned that a similar outbreak will occur there than what's happening in Victoria. Allowing international students into SA will only exacerbate the likelihood of quarantine breaches and outbreaks. It's insane.
 

Pessimistic

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Personally I take issue with people moving blame away from the Andrews government for the second wave and blaming the individuals involved (dodgy security guards / dodgy guests).

The fact of the matter is that when you run a quarantine program you need to account for the fact that a certain percentage of people will try and "game" the system. I mean this is why we have a police force, it would be nice to expect everyone to obey the law and act ethically but that just doesn't happen in rel life

If they had of had ADF / police running the quarantine (or at least overseeing the private guards) I strongly doubt we would be in this s..t house position we find ourselves in now.

I still cannot get my head around the fact that for some reason the state government outsourced the running of a quarantine program (the most important part of our pandemic response) for the greatest health crisis in 100 years to a bunch of Nightclub Bouncers.

I have thought about it a lot and I am still baffled by the logic (or lack thereof). If they were the only option then I guess that would make some kind of weird sense but they had 800 ADF troops on standby twiddling their thumbs (plus god knows how many Police).
I reckon the adf as panacea is a total phurphy. There are lots of shortcomings which the virus exploited.

id still like to know the number of infected people which were successfully quarantined, then you can judge the program
 

Simon Crawshay

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I reckon the adf as panacea is a total phurphy. There are lots of shortcomings which the virus exploited.

id still like to know the number of infected people which were successfully quarantined, then you can judge the program
Yes many shortcomings including Victorians absolutely hopeless contract tracing relative to other states such as NSW.

For things to get this bad in Victoria you don't just need one thing to go wrong, you need multiple failures in government policy and procedure. The Swiss cheese effect.

They totally screwed the hotel quarantine process but if their contract tracing had off been up to scratch they could have recovered but it wasn't and bingo here we are with hundreds dead and hundreds of thousands of lives ruined.

And all it takes is one failure from a hotel quarantine to cause disaster, that's why it is so amazing to me how they could have treated it so casually.
 

Major Colvin

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Yes many shortcomings including Victorians absolutely hopeless contract tracing relative to other states such as NSW.

For things to get this bad in Victoria you don't just need one thing to go wrong, you need multiple failures in government policy and procedure. The Swiss cheese effect.

They totally screwed the hotel quarantine process but if their contract tracing had off been up to scratch they could have recovered but it wasn't and bingo here we are with hundreds dead and hundreds of thousands of lives ruined.

And all it takes is one failure from a hotel quarantine to cause disaster, that's why it is so amazing to me how they could have treated it so casually.
Can you expand on why Vic's contact tracing was hopeless compared with NSW? I'm not pulling you up, I'm genuinely curious.

I can't see how, if the same hotel quarantine breaches happened in NSW, why they wouldnt have experience a similar infection rate.

The way I understand it, the hotel quarantine breaches, which went largely undetected by health authorities. By that stage we had widespread community transmission which would have overwhelmed any tracing system that any state had in place. There has not been a genuine federal contact tracing system developed for this kind of outbreak either (see Covidsafe app)

The hotel quarantine breach was the major shortcoming which in itself, overwhelmed Vic's Covid-19 response. You commented that it only takes one hotel quarantine failure to cause a disaster - I think that's true as well. But no state currently has the contact tracing infrastructure to cope a breach like what happened in Vic, which I agree with government should be held accountable for.
 

Major Colvin

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I think you may have missed my point. It doesn't take much to go from fine to fiasco. The vast majority of deaths in Victoria have been traced to 2 people in hotel quarantine. My mum lives in Adelaide so on a personal level I am more concerned that a similar outbreak will occur there than what's happening in Victoria. Allowing international students into SA will only exacerbate the likelihood of quarantine breaches and outbreaks. It's insane.
Yeah it is puzzling. There certainly seems to be an understanding that COVID is highly infectious and they dont want it in their state. But then they are taking in international students who are apparently being quarantined in Mt Gambier. The seems an unnecessary risk given as you said majority of deaths in Vic are traced back to two people and 99% of Australia's Covid cases have been from quarantined international arrivals.

Its also somewhat hypocritical, considering noone from Vic can enter SA currently, not even people who live in Vic but often have to travel into SA for work, and vice versa.

The states would want to be careful with their rhetoric towards Vic and draconian announcements of 'indefinite' border closures - its becoming sanctimonious and tiresome.
 
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Simon Crawshay

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Can you expand on why Vic's contact tracing was hopeless compared with NSW? I'm not pulling you up, I'm genuinely curious.

I can't see how, if the same hotel quarantine breaches happened in NSW, why they wouldnt have experience a similar infection rate.

The way I understand it, the hotel quarantine breaches, which went largely undetected by health authorities. By that stage we had widespread community transmission which would have overwhelmed any tracing system that any state had in place. There has not been a genuine federal contact tracing system developed for this kind of outbreak either (see Covidsafe app)

The hotel quarantine breach was the major shortcoming which in itself, overwhelmed Vic's Covid-19 response. You commented that it only takes one hotel quarantine failure to cause a disaster - I think that's true as well. But no state currently has the contact tracing infrastructure to cope a breach like what happened in Vic, which I agree with government should be held accountable for.
See the article below from The Age which delves into the failure of Victoria's contract tracing program (I am beginning to think these failures were at least as catastrophic as the Hotel Quarantine debacle).

Federal government sources claim that when defence personnel arrived in Melbourne in mid-July, close contacts of 1000 people diagnosed with COVID-19 had not been reached by Victorian health authorities, but this is disputed by Victorian government sources.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald that contact tracing failures early in Victoria's outbreak had hampered efforts to bring case numbers under control.

"They weren't tracing all the contacts when Victoria had 10, 15, 20 confirmed cases," the source said.


 

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Pessimistic

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Yeah it is puzzling. There certainly seems to be an understanding that COVID is highly infectious and they dont want it in their state. But then they are taking in international students who are apparently being quarantined in Mt Gambier. The seems an unnecessary risk given as you said majority of deaths in Vic are traced back to two people and 99% of Australia's Covid cases have been from quarantined international arrivals.

Its also somewhat hypocritical, considering noone from Vic can enter SA currently, not even people who live in Vic but often have to travel into SA for work, and vice versa.

The states would want to be careful with their rhetoric towards Vic and draconian announcements of 'indefinite' border closures - its becoming sanctimonious and tiresome.
Especially as once these students leave quarantine, they will probably be doing online work? Could have done it from anywhere (I understand universities have internet Comms agreements with china etc)
 

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See the article below from The Age which delves into the failure of Victoria's contract tracing program (I am beginning to think these failures were at least as catastrophic as the Hotel Quarantine debacle).

Federal government sources claim that when defence personnel arrived in Melbourne in mid-July, close contacts of 1000 people diagnosed with COVID-19 had not been reached by Victorian health authorities, but this is disputed by Victorian government sources.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald that contact tracing failures early in Victoria's outbreak had hampered efforts to bring case numbers under control.

"They weren't tracing all the contacts when Victoria had 10, 15, 20 confirmed cases," the source said.


Mid July? is that the quote? cant even specify an exact date? sounds mischevious. Public housing towers total lockdown was 'mid July' (reports 3rd July)

seems like the public discussion is ripe for misinformation, and people are only too happy to provide it
 

Asapartyhat

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I think you may have missed my point. It doesn't take much to go from fine to fiasco. The vast majority of deaths in Victoria have been traced to 2 people in hotel quarantine. My mum lives in Adelaide so on a personal level I am more concerned that a similar outbreak will occur there than what's happening in Victoria. Allowing international students into SA will only exacerbate the likelihood of quarantine breaches and outbreaks. It's insane.
Just because the virus got a foothold in Melbourne does not mean it will happen in other cities.
Overseas arrivals are covid positive at between 1% and 3% per flight . Perth has about 550 os arrivals every week (numbers have been capped recently it was a lot more before) so we are getting between 5 and 15 new positive cases every week on average.It has been like that for six months and will probably be the same for a year or maybe two with no community spread in WA.
If Adelaide feels the need for international students it will quarantine isolate and test them I'm sure .I would not be to worried.
 

kranky al

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I'm not moving blame away from Andrews, someone under him made a monumentally stupid decision to use unskilled workers in an activity that was critical to ensuring the safety of the community. He is in charge and is ultimately responsible. Nevertheless I would rather he was able to get on with fixing the problem. That should be the focus of the government right now.

Apparently in WA the quarantine security have no power to physically stop those leaving the hotel. SA is allowing international students to fly in. Monumentally stupid decisions are not restricted to the Victorian government. Quarantine hotels are the source of our community spread. You'd think others would learn from our mistakes.
Every so often someone does sneak out of our hotels.

We jail them.





 

The 747

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See the article below from The Age which delves into the failure of Victoria's contract tracing program (I am beginning to think these failures were at least as catastrophic as the Hotel Quarantine debacle).

Federal government sources claim that when defence personnel arrived in Melbourne in mid-July, close contacts of 1000 people diagnosed with COVID-19 had not been reached by Victorian health authorities, but this is disputed by Victorian government sources.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald that contact tracing failures early in Victoria's outbreak had hampered efforts to bring case numbers under control.

"They weren't tracing all the contacts when Victoria had 10, 15, 20 confirmed cases," the source said.


Why would you quote a newspaper article? This whole time they have consistently got things wrong and spread incorrect information. I don't understand why you are getting angry about articles quoting anonymous sources when there is a fair chance the articles are bullshit.
 

josephine666

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Just because the virus got a foothold in Melbourne does not mean it will happen in other cities.
Overseas arrivals are covid positive at between 1% and 3% per flight . Perth has about 550 os arrivals every week (numbers have been capped recently it was a lot more before) so we are getting between 5 and 15 new positive cases every week on average.It has been like that for six months and will probably be the same for a year or maybe two with no community spread in WA.
If Adelaide feels the need for international students it will quarantine isolate and test them I'm sure .I would not be to worried.
We quarantined and tested international arrivals too yet here we are. My worry is that you aren't worried (not you specifcally of course). Have other states learned from the Victorian experience or is there complanceny that it hasn't happened here so it can't? It seems that's the SA view. At least WA has made ammendments so quarantines can't just walk out of their hotels anymore. Are hotel workers and security tested twice a week? Are they allowed second jobs? Are they considered close contacts so must abide by close contact protocols? Are opposition parties asking these questions?
 

Forward Press

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We quarantined and tested international arrivals too yet here we are. My worry is that you aren't worried (not you specifcally of course). Have other states learned from the Victorian experience or is there complanceny that it hasn't happened here so it can't? It seems that's the SA view. At least WA has made ammendments so quarantines can't just walk out of their hotels anymore. Are hotel workers and security tested twice a week? Are they allowed second jobs? Are they considered close contacts so must abide by close contact protocols? Are opposition parties asking these questions?
It should be clarified that:

- WA for a long time now has had the power to jail people evading hotel quarantine - and has done so
- Hotel security also had the power to forcibly stop quarantined people from leaving - all those jailed simply snuck out (eg using ladders placed by friends, figuring out how to go out a fire exit without triggering alarms etc) while security wasn't there
- ADF has been involved for some time now in assisting in enforcing quarantine, and the government intends to double the number soon

The biggest risk at the moment is probably the voluntary 14 day quarantine for interstate arrivals, and it would not surprise me if the WA government decides there is enough capacity in hotels to send those people into mandatory enforced isolation too along with overseas arrivals.
 

Forward Press

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Also in response to your other questions, since May (I think?) all people in at-risk sectors (eg health, aged care, quarantine hotel workers) can get tested at any time with no symptoms, but we still have the same issues with second jobs associated with the casualisation of the work force, quarantine protocols are strictly enforced (based on what a friend of mine that works in a quarantine hotel stated, so it's just anecdotal but make of it what you will), and the Opposition here is largely ineffectual and invisible especially since the vast majority have a strong approval of the government's handling of the pandemic since the beginning.
 

Simon Crawshay

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Why would you quote a newspaper article? This whole time they have consistently got things wrong and spread incorrect information. I don't understand why you are getting angry about articles quoting anonymous sources when there is a fair chance the articles are bullshit.
At the end of the day Victoria has had 18000 confirmed cases with almost 400 deaths.

The next worst state is NSW with 4000 confirmed cases and 50 deaths.

For Victoria to get it so badly wrong can't just be down to bad luck, catastrophic faiulers of governance must have occoured. And not just a singular failure but multiple failures across various beuarcracies and departments.

Can anyone honestly say that they are happy with how the Victoria government has handled Victoria's pandemic response so far? Because if this is your definition of success I grow cold at what tour idea of failure is.....

You just watch the civil (and potential criminal industrial manslaughter) court action that will result from these failures. It will be a absolute bloodbath in the courts.
 

Asapartyhat

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We quarantined and tested international arrivals too yet here we are. My worry is that you aren't worried (not you specifcally of course). Have other states learned from the Victorian experience or is there complanceny that it hasn't happened here so it can't? It seems that's the SA view. At least WA has made ammendments so quarantines can't just walk out of their hotels anymore. Are hotel workers and security tested twice a week? Are they allowed second jobs? Are they considered close contacts so must abide by close contact protocols? Are opposition parties asking these questions?
Can only speak for WA, we are resigned to having international arrivals and not getting down to zero cases in WA or if we do its only till the next positive arrives from os .
The quarantine arrangements and security are different in each state but 6 months in and WA is fine and our arrangements work fine the opposition ask questions the media are gagging for a breach or an issue and so far nothing of major concern has occured.
Life in WA is very much as it was pre covid in the new covid normal just with strick border quarantine and access safety requirments . The biggest issue we have is Clive Palmer and thats not going to change .
 

jatz14

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At the end of the day Victoria has had 18000 confirmed cases with almost 400 deaths.

The next worst state is NSW with 4000 confirmed cases and 50 deaths.

For Victoria to get it so badly wrong can't just be down to bad luck, catastrophic faiulers of governance must have occoured. And not just a singular failure but multiple failures across various beuarcracies and departments.

Can anyone honestly say that they are happy with how the Victoria government has handled Victoria's pandemic response so far? Because if this is your definition of success I grow cold at what tour idea of failure is.....

You just watch the civil (and potential criminal industrial manslaughter) court action that will result from these failures. It will be a absolute bloodbath in the courts.
I'm curious why you seem so sure that ADF involvement would have stopped this?

ADF involvement doesn't mean the guards are replaced with soldiers, it means ADF are involved in planning and supervision.

And supervision of the guards doesn't mean they watch them constantly.

So the lapses of the guards, which presumably occured when supervisors were not around, may well still have occured.

WA has had a number of people break quarantine. It would only have taken one to be a super spreader for WA to be in the same mess.

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