Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

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dont bowl there

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That means Victoria is going for total elimination.

I have read a lot of commentary from epidemiologists who think this is impossible given the size of Melbourne and how long the virus has been embedded in the community.
Do we know what happens if we open up after a 14 day ave of say 4 then it becomes 10+? Are we locking back down to get it under 5 again or can the contact tracing team keep it under control at that stage? What’s a manageable number going forward?
 

harrythetiger

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Do we know what happens if we open up after a 14 day ave of say 4 then it becomes 10+? Are we locking back down to get it under 5 again or can the contact tracing team keep it under control at that stage? What’s a manageable number going forward?
I doubt that is the way forward. For a start, 14 day average lags terribly. It gives you great confidence that what you think is happening, is actually happening, but a week later. On the way down thats manageable, it means a nearly 4 month lockdown might end up being 1 week longer than it needs to be. Prime example - today the metro 14 day average crossed below 50. The last time over 50 cases was reported was this time last week.

On the way up, it means you lockdown a week too late, which means restrictions need to be tighter and much longer lasting. For example, the entire metro area went into stage 3 on July 9, when the 14 day average was 82. But we didn't see a day below even 140 until August 24.

With a suppression strategy, reintroducing restrictions is very much subjective - you need to know where the cases are occurring, who is spreading it, can contact tracers keep up. NSW saw a 14 day average as high as 16 in early August, but they probably have the benchmark for contact tracing, they knew what was happening, and have to this point controlled it with minimal extra restrictions.
If we have 5 or 6 cases every day for two weeks, all can be traced quickly and contacts notified and no signs of growth, the 14 day average will be over 5, but extra restrictions are probably not needed.
If we are sitting at a 14 day average of 2 or 3 then suddenly pick up 10 cases with unknown sources in one day, the 14 day average will be below 5, but extra restrictions should probably be considered at that stage.
 

Simon Crawshay

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For those who still maintain that the choice made by the Andrews government to choose 100% Private Security to run the Hotel Quarantine program over ADF / Police made no difference to the second wave I am just going to leave this here.....

“Security guards informed (nursing staff) they were concerned about using hand sanitiser because it is against their religion,” the document read.


 

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SaintsSeptember

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I doubt that is the way forward. For a start, 14 day average lags terribly. It gives you great confidence that what you think is happening, is actually happening, but a week later. On the way down thats manageable, it means a nearly 4 month lockdown might end up being 1 week longer than it needs to be. Prime example - today the metro 14 day average crossed below 50. The last time over 50 cases was reported was this time last week.

On the way up, it means you lockdown a week too late, which means restrictions need to be tighter and much longer lasting. For example, the entire metro area went into stage 3 on July 9, when the 14 day average was 82. But we didn't see a day below even 140 until August 24.

With a suppression strategy, reintroducing restrictions is very much subjective - you need to know where the cases are occurring, who is spreading it, can contact tracers keep up. NSW saw a 14 day average as high as 16 in early August, but they probably have the benchmark for contact tracing, they knew what was happening, and have to this point controlled it with minimal extra restrictions.
If we have 5 or 6 cases every day for two weeks, all can be traced quickly and contacts notified and no signs of growth, the 14 day average will be over 5, but extra restrictions are probably not needed.
If we are sitting at a 14 day average of 2 or 3 then suddenly pick up 10 cases with unknown sources in one day, the 14 day average will be below 5, but extra restrictions should probably be considered at that stage.
Here's one example of why simple averages can't be applied to the whole city.
Averages can come down low but still have transmission in some areas that will be enough to re-ignite the whole thing.

Here i've compared a 14 day average of new cases pre LGA , vs a 7 day average. If the 7 day average is significantly lower than the 14th then good progress is being made.
14 vs 7
Wyndham.. 7 vs 6
Brimbank 6 vs 3
Casey 7 vs 7
Melton 4 vs 2.5
Hume 4 vs 3
Mooney Valley 4 vs 2.5
Darebin 1.2 vs 0.5
Moreland 3 vs 1.6
Hobsons Bay 4 vs 4


So the LGA's responsible for 2/5 of the current new cases are not going to be low next week.

Wyndham = Hoppers 3.4 Werribee 3.0 The rest : negligible.
Casey = Clyde 2, Hallam 3.5 , Cranbourne 2, The rest : Negligible.
Hobsons Bay = Altona Nth 3 , Spotswood/Newport 1 . The rest : Negligible.
 

The 747

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For those who still maintain that the choice made by the Andrews government to choose 100% Private Security to run the Hotel Quarantine program over ADF / Police made no difference to the second wave I am just going to leave this here.....

“Security guards informed (nursing staff) they were concerned about using hand sanitiser because it is against their religion,” the document read.

Sure, but what if VicPol were doing security? They might have bashed the hotel guests and caught coronavirus themselves......

In case you haven't noticed, a lot of things are rotten here.
 

GhostofJimJess

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Sure, but what if VicPol were doing security? They might have bashed the hotel guests and caught coronavirus themselves......

In case you haven't noticed, a lot of things are rotten here.
Bit harsh, but I can see what you’re getting at. And anybody who thinks having ADF supervise a hotel quarantine is the panacea of problems surrounding virus infection is just kidding themselves. It hasn’t worked flawlessly in NSW for a start, and they’ve been ridiculously lucky their own hotel quarantine breaches haven’t allowed the virus to again get out of control. Combination of timing, cultural factors, learnings from elsewhere and some old fashioned good luck have enabled NSW to stave off that eventuality.
 

Simon Crawshay

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Bit harsh, but I can see what you’re getting at. And anybody who thinks having ADF supervise a hotel quarantine is the panacea of problems surrounding virus infection is just kidding themselves. It hasn’t worked flawlessly in NSW for a start, and they’ve been ridiculously lucky their own hotel quarantine breaches haven’t allowed the virus to again get out of control. Combination of timing, cultural factors, learnings from elsewhere and some old fashioned good luck have enabled NSW to stave off that eventuality.
The cultural factors you speak of is the religious and ethnic breakdown of the private security guards which covers a multitude of factors from their attitudes to authority, their adversion to using sanitiser, living arrangement with large family groups, lack of English skills, etc, etc. I would also throw in their demographic background being generally younger, highly mobile people who moved about a great deal both for work and social reasons.

Now let's say ADF troops had been in charge of hotel quarantine in Victoria and due to the poorly designed program as a whole (lack of PPE being provided, lack of oversight from DHHS, etc) some of the ADF troops had got infected. Instead of transmitting the virus to the lower socio economic areas such as housing commission flats in the inner city and the wider population in general via their second jobs (Uber drivers) they would have isolated themselves in designated hotels and had very limited interaction with the community. The outcome would have been very different.

The above is not bad luck, it is a badly designed system and someone should have identified the risks of using the security guards prior to their implementation.

Indeed if I had to think of a way to quickly spread a virus throughout Melbourne I would be hard pressed to think of a more efficient transmission vector than giving it to the subsection of the population that the security guards inhabit.

Brett Sutton has basically said as much in his testimony to the Judicial inquiry today (on another topic the fact that our CHO wasn't aware that private security were running the states quarantine program until he read it in the papers is absolutely mind blowing to me and gives me chills)
 

Pessimistic

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To trigger the third step, which is where regional Victoria is now and pretty much where we got to in May-June, we just need to hit a 14 day average of 5, and have less than 3 community transmissions in the last 14 days.
I think you might be mixing it up with the last step, no new cases for 14 days. That one is pretty out there, I agree.
But which step is wort FLYING fk. the 5km and non essential businesses is the key.

mondays curfew till 9pm and playgrounds? that could have been in for 6 weeks already and no actual difference
 

SaintsSeptember

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But which step is wort FLYING fk. the 5km and non essential businesses is the key.

mondays curfew till 9pm and playgrounds? that could have been in for 6 weeks already and no actual difference
Having seen the way people congregate in playgrounds. I disagree.
That's what people don't get. The Curfew has given people less opportunity to flout the rules.
People from Melbourne metro spread it throughout country Victoria, despite not being allowed to travel there.

Generally i prefer the approach that if too many people break the rules , they enforce the rules don't make them stricter, but its often done in our society.
If a few people are driving 80 down the 60km/h street you can arrest them for going 80 or.....
Change the speed limit to 40, and or put in speed humps.

The curfew is akin to "speed humps" it made it harder to break the rules.
 

hebog

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Bit harsh, but I can see what you’re getting at. And anybody who thinks having ADF supervise a hotel quarantine is the panacea of problems surrounding virus infection is just kidding themselves. It hasn’t worked flawlessly in NSW for a start, and they’ve been ridiculously lucky their own hotel quarantine breaches haven’t allowed the virus to again get out of control. Combination of timing, cultural factors, learnings from elsewhere and some old fashioned good luck have enabled NSW to stave off that eventuality.
apparently NSW doesn’t allow companies to employ subcontractors. All their workers have to be direct employees.
 

parsons nose

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Do we know what happens if we open up after a 14 day ave of say 4 then it becomes 10+? Are we locking back down to get it under 5 again or can the contact tracing team keep it under control at that stage? What’s a manageable number going forward?
I suspect 5 in 14 is strategic in a political sense. Behind closed doors the benchmark maybe something more achievable. A bit like the developer who wants to build a tower in your neighbourhood 12 storeys high. Submits plans for a 20 storey block. And get bargained down to the 12 storeys he originally wanted.
It serves two purposes, keeps the masses on task for longer and makes the government look compassionate when they lift the restrictions prior to (pseudo) targets being met.
 

GhostofJimJess

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apparently NSW doesn’t allow companies to employ subcontractors. All their workers have to be direct employees.
Yep, fair enough. But wasn’t the hotel manager allegedly responsible for spreading the infection from the Melbourne quarantine hotel also a direct employee?
 

GhostofJimJess

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The cultural factors you speak of is the religious and ethnic breakdown of the private security guards which covers a multitude of factors from their attitudes to authority, their adversion to using sanitiser, living arrangement with large family groups, lack of English skills, etc, etc. I would also throw in their demographic background being generally younger, highly mobile people who moved about a great deal both for work and social reasons.

Now let's say ADF troops had been in charge of hotel quarantine in Victoria and due to the poorly designed program as a whole (lack of PPE being provided, lack of oversight from DHHS, etc) some of the ADF troops had got infected. Instead of transmitting the virus to the lower socio economic areas such as housing commission flats in the inner city and the wider population in general via their second jobs (Uber drivers) they would have isolated themselves in designated hotels and had very limited interaction with the community. The outcome would have been very different.

The above is not bad luck, it is a badly designed system and someone should have identified the risks of using the security guards prior to their implementation.

Indeed if I had to think of a way to quickly spread a virus throughout Melbourne I would be hard pressed to think of a more efficient transmission vector than giving it to the subsection of the population that the security guards inhabit.

Brett Sutton has basically said as much in his testimony to the Judicial inquiry today (on another topic the fact that our CHO wasn't aware that private security were running the states quarantine program until he read it in the papers is absolutely mind blowing to me and gives me chills)
Great post mate. I have to agree that I don’t agree with all of it’s contents, but I do appreciate your rational and considered response, rather than those dimwitted politically motivated posts by the “Give Dan the Boot” numpty brigade that tend to turn up in here at times.

I suspect, as in the many active or former war zones that our ADF currently operate, that there would be a combination of ADF and privately operated security personnel deployed in any quarantine arrangement.

I did find it odd Brett Sutton was unaware who was manning the hotel quarantine. I look forward to watching how that inquiry unfolds.
 

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Simon Crawshay

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Great post mate. I have to agree that I don’t agree with all of it’s contents, but I do appreciate your rational and considered response, rather than those dimwitted politically motivated posts by the “Give Dan the Boot” numpty brigade that tend to turn up in here at times.

I suspect, as in the many active or former war zones that our ADF currently operate, that there would be a combination of ADF and privately operated security personnel deployed in any quarantine arrangement.

I did find it odd Brett Sutton was unaware who was manning the hotel quarantine. I look forward to watching how that inquiry unfolds.
Thanks

I used to be a Quality Manager in the Food Industry and a big part of that job is looking at a process and analysing risks at every step (microbiological, chemical, physical and people).

Its a standardised system for hazard analysis called HACCP and it is one of the main reasons why manufactured food in Australia (and the rest of the world) is so safe to eat.

I have tried to apply the same analysis to the hotel quarantine and I keep coming up with the conclusion that having untrained security guards with no health expertise basically running the program should have been flagged as a Major risk and some kind of control put in place (ie replacement / supervision by ADF / police)

I saw a lot of f ups in my time as a QA manager (product recalls, etc) and whilst luck always plays a part usually it is a failure in the system somewhere along the line that leads to the end result. A good system should have enough fail safes to prevent something like this from happening.
 

harrythetiger

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Just 28 new cases today in VIC.
Hopefully some of those figures are from regional VIC to get the Melbourne metro average rolling further down.
Metro 14 day average down to 44.4 (49.6 yesterday). The statewide 110 on September 3 isn't in it any more, which is the main reason for the drop.
 

SaintsSeptember

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Thanks

I used to be a Quality Manager in the Food Industry and a big part of that job is looking at a process and analysing risks at every step (microbiological, chemical, physical and people).

Its a standardised system for hazard analysis called HACCP and it is one of the main reasons why manufactured food in Australia (and the rest of the world) is so safe to eat.

I have tried to apply the same analysis to the hotel quarantine and I keep coming up with the conclusion that having untrained security guards with no health expertise basically running the program should have been flagged as a Major risk and some kind of control put in place (ie replacement / supervision by ADF / police)

I saw a lot of f ups in my time as a QA manager (product recalls, etc) and whilst luck always plays a part usually it is a failure in the system somewhere along the line that leads to the end result. A good system should have enough fail safes to prevent something like this from happening.
Did you have a control plan ? A system of checks designed to detect identified risks? (I'm familiar with manufacturing but not food ).

Lots of formal approaches but I see it as :
sh*t happens. ( in high volume its hard to believe some of the weird sh*t that can go wrong ).
Have a system in place to detect and contain any sh*t that goes wrong.
Find out how the sh*t got out, stop it getting out.
Take action to negate and contain the sh*t that got out.

Then... worry about who's fault it was and make sure the system will be better in future.
 

StillAtLarge

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For those who still maintain that the choice made by the Andrews government to choose 100% Private Security to run the Hotel Quarantine program over ADF / Police made no difference to the second wave I am just going to leave this here.....

“Security guards informed (nursing staff) they were concerned about using hand sanitiser because it is against their religion,” the document read.
Actually, police were the government's first choice for supervising hotel quarantine but they flat out refused.
I can't defend the use of private security firms but the govt should've either gone harder (insisted that police oversaw H Q) or gone down the ADF route.
 

dont bowl there

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Actually, police were the government's first choice for supervising hotel quarantine but they flat out refused.
I can't defend the use of private security firms but the govt should've either gone harder (insisted that police oversaw H Q) or gone down the ADF route.
Do we know why Police refused? Was it safety or resources? Either way it's a bad look for the government to then hand it over to private security whilst having Police patrol local parks etc for people doing the wrong thing. The risk was always inside those hotels.
 

Simon Crawshay

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Do we know why Police refused? Was it safety or resources? Either way it's a bad look for the government to then hand it over to private security whilst having Police patrol local parks etc for people doing the wrong thing. The risk was always inside those hotels.
I believe the chief commissioner of police said police resources were need elsewhere.

I agree though, sending police to harass people with out the virus sitting on park benches by themselves whilst allocating almost zero resources to policing people in the hotels who actually had the virus doesn't make any sense at all.
 

Simon Crawshay

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Actually, police were the government's first choice for supervising hotel quarantine but they flat out refused.
I can't defend the use of private security firms but the govt should've either gone harder (insisted that police oversaw H Q) or gone down the ADF route.
Yes you are right the police refused but I don't think they could have maintained that stance if the government pressed them.
 

hebog

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Yes you are right the police refused but I don't think they could have maintained that stance if the government pressed them.
Isn’t that the separation of powers that stops us becoming a police state. It may have been different of course if it had been a coalition government like NSW.
 

Simon Crawshay

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Isn’t that the separation of powers that stops us becoming a police state. It may have been different of course if it had been a coalition government like NSW.
VIC Labour have a long history of pandering to the Police unions requests.

I don't think separation of powers is relevant when allocating resources in a pandemic.

And the end result of VIC police not running the hotel quarantine is we have ended up in a quasi police state anyway.....
 

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