Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

[Simon Crawshay]

Although it is good news that Vic only had 14 cases yesterday it greatly worries me that 6 of those were from the Casey cluster in the Afghan community (now up to 40 cases from 6 different households)

The families involved in this cluster have shown an unwillingness to work with authorities and I doubt even now they are telling the tracers everything.

This subsection of the population is exactly where you don't want it to get embedded and I sincerely hope the VIC government has put away their kids gloves in dealing with the community involved.

 

[Bring-Back-Powell]

Thank goodness Pall-a-shay is “keeping Queenslanders safe” from the NSW infestation!

View attachment 965848

Love the irony.

Queensland have been the loudest state in Australia to bang on about how “COVID free” they are and yet have just as many new cases as NSW do today.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Love the irony.

Queensland have been the loudest state in Australia to bang on about how “COVID free” they are and yet have just as many new cases as NSW do today.

You are crowing because nsw had a day of 2 cases.
Pathetic.

 

[kranky al]

Love the irony.

Queensland have been the loudest state in Australia to bang on about how “COVID free” they are and yet have just as many new cases as NSW do today.

2?

 

[kranky al]

 

[Vassp]

View attachment 966687

Evidence my a@@.....poor excuse for a professor.
lets see how this one pans out shall we......

 

[kranky al]

Evidence my a@@.....poor excuse for a professor.
lets see how this one pans out shall we......

what in particular do you think is incorrect?

 

[jatz14]

what in particular do you think is incorrect?

It's the vibe.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Simon Crawshay]

View attachment 966687

I don't deny that it has been a good job to get from 700 cases a day to 11

But everyone who praises the Andrews government for this feat reminds me of people praising an arsonist who hangs around to help put out a massive bushfire that they set off after having a campfire on a total fire ban day at the height of summer.

The cost of reducing the case numbers down to this level (both social and economic) will be felt for years to come.

 

[kranky al]

I don't deny that it has been a good job to get from 700 cases a day to 11

But everyone who praises the Andrews government for this feat reminds me of people praising an arsonist who hangs around to help put out a massive bushfire that they set off after having a campfire on a total fire ban day at the height of summer.

The cost of reducing the case numbers down to this level (both social and economic) will be felt for years to come.

theres no doubt they f.... up.

but put it in perspective with other countries around the world and the f...up only looks bad compared with other australian states, not other countries.

and to be honest every state had succumbed to normalcy bias - everyone was getting blase about it all thinking we had won.

victoria was the first to have it go pearshaped and the rest of australia learnt from that lesson and pulled finger quickly!!

 

[The 747]

I don't deny that it has been a good job to get from 700 cases a day to 11

But everyone who praises the Andrews government for this feat reminds me of people praising an arsonist who hangs around to help put out a massive bushfire that they set off after having a campfire on a total fire ban day at the height of summer.

The cost of reducing the case numbers down to this level (both social and economic) will be felt for years to come.

I am going to do the Pauline Hanson here, please explain:

What are social and economic costs of this lockdown that will be felt for years to come?

 

[Forever North]

I am going to do the Pauline Hanson here, please explain:

What are social and economic costs of this lockdown that will be felt for years to come?

So what do you reckon? That the Andrews government’s negligence and utter incompetence with hotel quarantine and contact tracing that directly led to this second wave and consequent hard lockdown will not lead to any social and economic costs?

I think the community would have been a bit more understanding if the second wave was a result of just plain bad luck rather than the complete government/public service/vicpol shambles that’s occured. They’re all blaming each other, all denying responsibility, all unable to recall anything, all ducking and diving, all bullshitting us. All of these bodies and leaderships within have been nothing short of a disgrace. Screw the lot of them.

 

[The 747]

So what do you reckon? That the Andrews government’s negligence and utter incompetence with hotel quarantine and contact tracing that directly led to this second wave and consequent hard lockdown will not lead to any social and economic costs?

I think the community would have been a bit more understanding if the second wave was a result of just plain bad luck rather than the complete government/public service/vicpol shambles that’s occured. They’re all blaming each other, all denying responsibility, all unable to recall anything, all ducking and diving, all bullshitting us. All of these bodies and leaderships within have been nothing short of a disgrace. Screw the lot of them.

I asked a question, would you care to answer it or do you want to rantyrantrant instead? Saying 'what do you reckon' just says you don't know.

 

[Forever North]

I asked a question, would you care to answer it or do you want to rantyrantrant instead? Saying 'what do you recko' just says you don't know.

Only an idiot would ask such a stupid question. You’re being a complete smart arse if you think there won’t be any social and economic costs of the hard lockdown that was essentially Andrews fault and entirely avoidable.

 

[Vassp]

what in particular do you think is incorrect?

you want me to start rotfl...

1) How about the blatant selling of Covid to the bublic. - anyone who knows sales knows this. - By our premier Dan.
A)...death numbers are fudged and so are Covid positive cases , its all to suit the narrative.
B) if the virus was that deadly you would not need to sell it to the people by calling it an epidemic when it is not..see flu deaths vs covid real deaths.

2) The worlds most senior virologist has advises that there is no proof that lock downs work. it actually causes a negative effect on people and their well being.
3) Most of our scientist are funded by organisations who have interests in vaccines etc...you will not get the full or true story by most.
a) edit 2, these people want t to depopulate the earth !!!!!!! see vaccines..
4) Dan will make (very dangerous ) vaccines compulsory- by hook or by crook.
5) Sweden is on a different model which seems to have flattened covid.
A)... they have hardly any lock downs and their economy is ok considering.

6) Who says after all the lock downs there will not be another spike?
7) Why are the police so heavy handed?
A)...Melbourne is part of the strong cites network, which means that part if not all of our police are controlled by an international alliance which has veryquestionable backers.
B)...I dont trust the gov ATM, after what ive been seeing and reading. Its their job to make us feel safe.
C)...so then who makes the decisions on where our state is heading? Dan or his backers?

So I do not trust the scientist because of all the reasons listed above.
If you want links get off you a@@ like I did and start researching.

EDIT. To answer your question more directly, the lower numbers (if you believe them) may be due to herd immunity as the virus over time has spread to more and more people, the changing of weather.
Unhappy people virus spreads more easily.
Unhealthy people virus spreads more easily.

WHERE ARE ALL THE HEALTH ADVICE EXPERTS TO GET PEOPLE TO EAT WELL AND ENCOURAGE WELL BEING ?
instead we get the sales pitch on death numbers which are screwed.
and then we get a hotline to shrinks for our wellbeing?

The economy had been pulled from under our feet, job losses, business losses, house losses, life losses (you know what I mean).
For what exactly?

Edit 3..

OH and now DAN is trying to pass a bill that gives them power to lock anyone away indefinitely that is a threat (very loosely termed), has covid , etc.

Our liberties are being stolen and we cant do sh@t about it.

So why am I suspicious? Go figure!!!!

 

[Simon Crawshay]

I am going to do the Pauline Hanson here, please explain:

What are social and economic costs of this lockdown that will be felt for years to come?

Really?

Okay let's see of the top of my head.....

- A whole state of children has missed almost a year of school already (long term effects of this will be able to seen by comparing Victoria's students performance relative to rest of country over next decade and it won't be pretty)

- Elective surgery has been on hold for what, over 6 months now (this will have long term effects for those who have had to put of surgery). Also many people will have put of seeing their GP for routine checks for melanomas, etc for fear of catching the virus which will cause an unnecessary loss of life.

- Mental health damage of locking up a whole state for 5 months (this to me is the great unknown and will e a ticking time bomb).

- Extended lockdown will have pushed many small to medium businesses over the edge and these SMEs are the driver of employment so VICs unemployment rate will be significantly higher than rest of country

-Loss of revenue from extended lockdown will inevitably lead to cuts in government funded social services such as schools, library's, universities, etc

-Erosion of civil liberties within the state such as curfew, travel limit, etc. You could classify this as short term but I believe it will have long term effects on our Westminster system.

These are all pretty self evident and I am sure I can find links to external studies that will be qua tidying all of the above.

 

[The 747]

Really?

Okay let's see of the top of my head.....

- A whole state of children has missed almost a year of school already (long term effects of this will be able to seen by comparing Victoria's students performance relative to rest of country over next decade and it won't be pretty) Yes they will score lower relative (maybe) but what does that really mean in terms of outcomes for the children?

- Elective surgery has been on hold for what, over 6 months now (this will have long term effects for those who have had to put of surgery). Also many people will have put of seeing their GP for routine checks for melanomas, etc for fear of catching the virus which will cause an unnecessary loss of life.

Yes this is an impact I agree.

- Mental health damage of locking up a whole state for 5 months (this to me is the great unknown and will e a ticking time bomb).

If it is an unknown it is not an impact, some people are lot healthier mentally by not having to go into work or school. To be determined and so far data is not showing much on this.

- Extended lockdown will have pushed many small to medium businesses over the edge and these SMEs are the driver of employment so VICs unemployment rate will be significantly higher than rest of country Perhaps but Jobkeeper is still running and I have not seen any information yet about business closures. Some sectors are heavily affected, some are not. If Jobkeeper was not running I agree it would be a disaster.

-Loss of revenue from extended lockdown will inevitably lead to cuts in government funded social services such as schools, library's, universities, etc

Yes the budget will be damaged but Victoria was in a strong budgetary position and money is cheap right now.

-Erosion of civil liberties within the state such as curfew, travel limit, etc. You could classify this as short term but I believe it will have long term effects on our Westminster system. Yes I agree, but this is only speeding up what was already happening as far as the erosion of liberties.

These are all pretty self evident and I am sure I can find links to external studies that will be qua tidying all of the above.

In bold above. I disagree that they are all self evident (I agree with some) and this assumes that what was happening before the pandemic was an optimal situation. But thank you for the detailed response, it is good to discuss these things.

I think there are a lot of assumptions in play about damage that may not really manifest, especially in the long run. Every country has suffered consequences, those consequence are relative to what happens in other countries. Also I do think that the impact of almost no migration in 2020 may be larger than any of these.

 

[The 747]

Only an idiot would ask such a stupid question. You’re being a complete smart arse if you think there won’t be any social and economic costs of the hard lockdown that was essentially Andrews fault and entirely avoidable.

So you still can't answer the question and want to rant some more.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Although it is good news that Vic only had 14 cases yesterday it greatly worries me that 6 of those were from the Casey cluster in the Afghan community (now up to 40 cases from 6 different households)

The families involved in this cluster have shown an unwillingness to work with authorities and I doubt even now they are telling the tracers everything.

This subsection of the population is exactly where you don't want it to get embedded and I sincerely hope the VIC government has put away their kids gloves in dealing with the community involved.

Nothing like some thinly veiled racism to make us all feel better

 

[Bring-Back-Powell]

You are crowing because nsw had a day of 2 cases.
Pathetic.

It was more like well done NSW!
NSW have copped it all year from QLD for having higher cases, so they should be well satisfied that their new cases were no more than QLD's yesterday.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Nothing like some thinly veiled racism to make us all feel better

Have you noticed the many references to "Large Family Groups/Gatherings" being referenced by the Premier and Sutton in regards to being one of the major drivers of community transmission?

What exactly do you think they are referring to? I don't know about you but the only large family gathering I have is at Christmas.

It is not racist to identify the cohort of the population that due to socio economic / cultural / whatever factors are most at risk of spreading the virus if it becomes embedded in their community.

Cultural factors are playing a huge part in how countries are responding to the virus. America with their culture of freedom of rights for the individual is struggling whereas East Asian cultures such as Vietnam / Taiwan / South Korea are doing well based on their culture of valuing society over individual rights.

Its my main criticism of the Hotel Quarantine program in Victoria that no one did a risk analysis on the security guards in relation to their training / employment status / living arrangements / cultural background in terms of the job they were responsible for.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

In bold above. I disagree that they are all self evident (I agree with some) and this assumes that what was happening before the pandemic was an optimal situation. But thank you for the detailed response, it is good to discuss these things.

I think there are a lot of assumptions in play about damage that may not really manifest, especially in the long run. Every country has suffered consequences, those consequence are relative to what happens in other countries. Also I do think that the impact of almost no migration in 2020 may be larger than any of these.

I agree that trying to predict the exact outcome of the long term effects of the extended lockdown is difficult but the effects of each of the points listed above would have been greatly mitigated if we hadn't been forced into the second lockdown due to the quarantine failures.

Also I didn't mention the immediate effects of the lockdown which are not based on assumptions such as lost revenue to businesses, job losses, people suffering mental anguish from being separated from loved ones, etc.

 

[Black white]

I am going to do the Pauline Hanson here, please explain:

What are social and economic costs of this lockdown that will be felt for years to come?
[/QUOTE]


Melbourne will probably not win the famous world's most livable city title

 

[The 747]

I agree that trying to predict the exact outcome of the long term effects of the extended lockdown is difficult but the effects of each of the points listed above would have been greatly mitigated if we hadn't been forced into the second lockdown due to the quarantine failures.

Also I didn't mention the immediate effects of the lockdown which are not based on assumptions such as lost revenue to businesses, job losses, people suffering mental anguish from being separated from loved ones, etc.

True, I am not saying the second lockdown has helped. But I think it worth challenging the assumption that the effects are devastating and long term, I am not convinced of that yet.

 

[Kangapirate]

Melbourne has been in social lockdown since the start of July, and when that didn’t work we put hundreds of thousands more out of of work at the start of August..approaching 2 months of stage 4 now. Not to diminish the effort to get down from 700 but no other place on earth has actually attempted a 3 month shutdown so making comparisons is silly. Since the pandemic started in March this city has only been partially open for 4 weeks in June. Basically 1 month out of 6. So yes the numbers are good but I wouldn’t be doing cartwheels over them, this is where we should be.