Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

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deskc

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I think the big difference is Victoria has already had to drive numbers down a second time. If we have another big surge, can we do it again? Other states have been able to live (to varying extents) normal lives for the last 4 or 5 months, there would be nowhere near the sort of fatigue that is in Victoria at the moment. The cost of a third wave in the next couple of months would be even greater because we might not control it. Other states would have less problems.
When there is a 3rd and 4th wave they will realise its here for ever and everything will open up and people will look after their own health
 

harrythetiger

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When there is a 3rd and 4th wave they will realise its here for ever and everything will open up and people will look after their own health
Why will there be another wave? The rest of the country and NZ have been able to keep this under wraps since May. That’s even with a minor re-entrance in NSW and NZ. That job will only get easier over the summer (see resurgence in the Northern Hemisphere as temperatures cooled), and by April-May next year we will in all likelihood be very close to a widespread vaccine.
 

deskc

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Why will there be another wave? The rest of the country and NZ have been able to keep this under wraps since May. That’s even with a minor re-entrance in NSW and NZ. That job will only get easier over the summer (see resurgence in the Northern Hemisphere as temperatures cooled), and by April-May next year we will in all likelihood be very close to a widespread vaccine.
Vaccines dont work. Flu vaccines are only 40% effective and lots of people won't take it at all
 

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harrythetiger

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Vaccines dont work. Flu vaccines are only 40% effective and lots of people won't take it at all
Vaccines don't have to be 100% effective to work. The magical 'herd immunity' that is used as an excuse to 'just open up' is actually (ideally) product of vaccination. With the SARS-COV2 R0 estimate of 2.6, you need about 60% of people to be immune to the virus to achieve the benefits of herd immunity.

You can achieve herd immunity through spread of the virus in the community. The problem is that means that proportion of the community need to get it. So for 60%, we need 15 million Australians to get Coronavirus. Not great, would either take years or overflow hospitals - and don't forget the restrictions to keep the virus bubbling at the same level aren't much lighter than those that force numbers down, you're looking at something like stage 3 lockdown for years - or overflowing hospitals. Once hospitals overflow, the death rate will soar. One of the reasons the survival rate is much higher for younger people is because they respond better to being on a ventilator. But if they need one and can't get one, they can be an olympic athlete for all they want - they're on borrowed time.

The other way is vaccination. A vaccine that produces an immune response in 60% of the population will do the trick. So we can afford 40% of the population to not show immunity, between people who get it and it isn't effective, and people who refuse it. The bonus is that its likely even in people that won't get immunity from the vaccine, their body will respond better to it, turning potential deaths into cold/flu-like cases.

To me that seems like a pretty good deal.
 

Kangapirate

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Victoria may avoid another wave but once we open up the chances of replicating the smaller states here are slim to none, we will always have outbreaks, the government knows that. Whether we get another wave or not will largely depend on the performance of our contact tracers, they are yet to be tested in an open environment.
 

the harry

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Victoria may avoid another wave but once we open up the chances of replicating the smaller states here are slim to none, we will always have outbreaks, the government knows that. Whether we get another wave or not will largely depend on the performance of our contact tracers, they are yet to be tested in an open environment.

Why is that the case? Surely Vic have every chance of elimination.
 

Kangapirate

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Why is that the case? Surely Vic have every chance of elimination.
Still a lot of unknown transmission, 15 cases in the last fortnight alone that we cant trace back to an original source, I can’t imagine VIC and NSW ever eliminating, having periods of little or no cases is different to elimination.
 

harrythetiger

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Still a lot of unknown transmission, 15 cases in the last fortnight alone that we cant trace back to an original source, I can’t imagine VIC and NSW ever eliminating, having periods of little or no cases is different to elimination.
I've a feeling the contact tracers have a good idea where most of those 15 cases have come from, they just can’t get the exact words out of peoples mouths because they were breaking the rules when they caught it, and that’s what the easing today is all about.
The behaviours won’t change, but they’ll be more likely to disclose all their movements at an interview because they’ve done nothing wrong.
 
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Skull Face

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Its more that we need more time to determine how competent the contact tracing has been, because its then becomes the primary weapon as things open up.

Also the reatil chomping at the bit, we all know a good may of them do 60% of their sales up to and before christmas. thats why black saturday came up - ot even the load out a bit.
Its better to wait and ensure a clear run to christmas than open now and have any risk to christmas trading. I think most retail sees that
Does he have new dates now for certain case levels? Because if he kept it as planned to next week the 5 Avg would have been achieved

Spose i should go have a look
 

freebloke

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Have a skip through this video montage.... Don't have to see every minute but you can see the effect and everything that's been said here about the Victorian govt.

See at 50:25... left me speechless

 
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PP34

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I think the big difference is Victoria has already had to drive numbers down a second time. If we have another big surge, can we do it again? Other states have been able to live (to varying extents) normal lives for the last 4 or 5 months, there would be nowhere near the sort of fatigue that is in Victoria at the moment. The cost of a third wave in the next couple of months would be even greater because we might not control it. Other states would have less problems.
That is true and I am happy to continue wearing them while we get active cases down to or close to 0.

I just can't buy having to wear them when we get to the further stages and people are sitting with masks off at restaurants, bars etc.
 

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SaintsSeptember

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Do the health liars care to explain to us how the people from Kilmore and Shepparton caught the virus when they were wearing masks. Masks cause more spread of the virus than no masks
No they don't.
People like you are the reason we have been so long in lockdown.
Grow up you little cry baby. its just a cloth mask , just wear it and stop sooking about it, its no big deal.
No don't carry around an empty coffee cup, just wear it. Of all the Covid19 restrictions the mask is the easiest you dumbass.
 

SaintsSeptember

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5km is no difference to me from 25km, cant go west north or south ill be into regional sector so thanks to daniel andrews I can now go to Watergardens which i'd only ever do to get bait to go fishing which I can't do anyway.

It is just a random number to appease the masses into believing restrictions are easing when in reality we are still in stage 4 lockdowns because his contact tracing team is too incompetent to track down a couple of hundred people.
No the contact tracers tell the useless shitheads to self quarantine, and they don't .
Because we have these morons living among us we need to lock down longer.
Its so bloody obvious.
NO WE WILL NOT STOP NOW BECAUSE MORONS WILL TAKE US BACK TO JULY FIGURES.

And if you are one of them...grow up.
 

SaintsSeptember

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That is true and I am happy to continue wearing them while we get active cases down to or close to 0.

I just can't buy having to wear them when we get to the further stages and people are sitting with masks off at restaurants, bars etc.
Very hard to eat with them on. They are a risk reduction measure. Wear them when you can.
 

SaintsSeptember

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I don't care about the distance I care about the lies that go with it. Andrews continually saying its about the science and the data but then never telling us what the thought process is behind the science. Is he worried about telling the world about his techniques that have been a failure all the way through that some other state might steal his secrets haha
If you can't see the thought process behind restricting the movement of the virus, the movement we saw all over the city , the movement that was demonstrated last week, you are even stupider than all your posts would suggest.
 

Simon Crawshay

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I am taking bets that the CHO Brett Sutton will be the next cab off the rank to feel Dan's silver dagger between his shoulder blades

Just like Eccles with his mysterious phone call to the CCP their is now an email directly contradicting Sutton testimony that he had nothing to do with the set up or running off the Hotel Quarantine program.

I wonder how many more canarys will die in this mine before they start to tweet the truth about who actually authorised use of private security over ADF.

As an old Eastern European saying goes "All birds start to sing as the cage gets closer"

 

Skull Face

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No the contact tracers tell the useless shitheads to self quarantine, and they don't .
Because we have these morons living among us we need to lock down longer.
Its so bloody obvious.
NO WE WILL NOT STOP NOW BECAUSE MORONS WILL TAKE US BACK TO JULY FIGURES.

And if you are one of them...grow up.
Morons didn't make the July figures Andrews fu** up with hotel quarantine did, NSW has been tracing contacts of contacts where VIC has only been tracing contacts until last week. A tracing team always 1 step behind never getting ahead, that is the only danger to opening up.

Fwiw I work 60 hours a week and play computer games when I get home, really hasn't affected my lifestyle at all apart from not being able to go fishing.
 

kranky al

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So if you have cancer and are going to die, but you get hit by a car and die, the cause of death is cancer? Think before you post please.
And how dare they add such a death to the national road toll. That person was gonna die anyway.
smoothbrain dunning - kruger in full effect.

the people who thought up these deflections are very smart - the people who use them as taking points have zero critical thought capabilities

oh and also

868ED342-C76E-4803-ABE2-9348C70692AF.jpeg


well f%}%* done victoria!!!!
 
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kranky al

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Morons didn't make the July figures Andrews fu** up with hotel quarantine did, NSW has been tracing contacts of contacts where VIC has only been tracing contacts until last week. A tracing team always 1 step behind never getting ahead, that is the only danger to opening up.

Fwiw I work 60 hours a week and play computer games when I get home, really hasn't affected my lifestyle at all apart from not being able to go fishing.
not being able to go fishing id a pretty bloody big apart from.....
 

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