Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

[Simon Crawshay]

There are plenty of people not taking it as seriously as they should but you're much more likely to be safe when you don't like in crowded houses/ buildings and work in industries that are easier to obey distancing.

There is a reason that in America the rates are higher among some groups than others and it just boils down to socioeconomic standing.

Part of it boils down to socio-economic status but not all of it.

Socio economic status doesn't explain why the people in the Casey cluster flouted the rules and travelled between multiple households.

Socio-economic status doesn't explain why certain cultures are more or less likely to follow the rules (that is purely down to cultural factors).

And why is it hitting these Islamic schools so hard in partulicular? I know they are on the lower end of the socio-economic line but their must be plenty of other state schools out their with similar socio-economic status that aren't being hit anywhere near as badly.

 

[owen87]

Part of it boils down to socio-economic status but not all of it.

Socio economic status doesn't explain why the people in the Casey cluster flouted the rules and travelled between multiple households.

Socio-economic status doesn't explain why certain cultures are more or less likely to follow the rules (that is purely down to cultural factors).

And why is it hitting these Islamic schools so hard in partulicular? I know they are on the lower end of the socio-economic line but their must be plenty of other state schools out their with similar socio-economic status that aren't being hit anywhere near as badly.

There's been a number of schools with cases, are they just getting less publicity?

 

[HTT]

Huge testing numbers the last two days, highest since the peak really, and it’s possible no cases who’ve been at risk of spreading it have been found, both cases yesterday already isolating, one today is and the other two may be historic. Combine that with the Monday and Tuesday donuts, I think it’s possible (perhaps not likely but possible) that we are seeing the last few cases being found now, and we may not see another outbreak. Obviously NSW went nearly two weeks without any local cases before finding some more but there’s a chance.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I read the article.

Seems to be a lot of blaming the government for not communicating effectively for the high rates of infection within their communities.

They might have had a point at the start of the pandemic but everyone, and I mean everyone should know by now what is required of them regardless of their cultural background.

I mean did you look at those three idiots in the guy fawkes masks. Not the sharpest tools in the shed methinks!

I have to admit i have episodes of the show "Pizza" in the back of my mind when it comes to some of the people spreading it.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

West Australia have more active cases per capita than Victoria
( Yeah i know.... ).

1 person per MCG full.

 

[AcuteWhistle]

 

[HTT]

Would give a wow but surprise factor is 0

 

[Aussie in exile]

Trump supporters are not known for being intelligent and this just confirms it.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Part of it boils down to socio-economic status but not all of it.

Socio economic status doesn't explain why the people in the Casey cluster flouted the rules and travelled between multiple households.

Socio-economic status doesn't explain why certain cultures are more or less likely to follow the rules (that is purely down to cultural factors).

And why is it hitting these Islamic schools so hard in partulicular? I know they are on the lower end of the socio-economic line but their must be plenty of other state schools out their with similar socio-economic status that aren't being hit anywhere near as badly.

Why do you assume that the Afghan's in Casey were not in a low socio-economic situation.
The biggest school , out west had ties to workers from the first meatworks affected.
I know its a halal meat place and all, but surely they don't disciminate and employ only Muslems? ( of course discrimination only works one way ).

 

[Bring-Back-Powell]

Any chance Qld and WA opens to Sydney and Victoria at the same time.

I.e both jurisdictions are now considered on par with each other in terms of minimal community transmission?

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Why do you assume that the Afghan's in Casey were not in a low socio-economic situation.
The biggest school , out west had ties to workers from the first meatworks affected.
I know its a halal meat place and all, but surely they don't disciminate and employ only Muslems? ( of course discrimination only works one way ).

They probably were in a low socio-econmoic situation as you say.

My point is that being from a low socio-economic status would explain why you would be more likely to contract the virus from working in a meatworks/factory (or other such industry in which you cant work from home) but it doesn't explain why the Afghan's from the Casey cluster felt the need to travel to other households across different suburbs during Stage 4 lockdown in direct contradiction to the law at the time.

That was just selfish behavior and cannot be justified in any way. It is a mentality that says "I only care about my immediate family, the rest of you can get stuffed".

That kind of behaviour is (in my mind) a large part due to sspecific cultural factors (i.e. which cultures are more or less likely to follow the rules) than any socio-econmoic factor. Put it this way I would have been immensely surprised if that had of been multiple Chinese or Japanese families caught in those kind of shenanigans. Two cultural groups could be from an identical socio-econmoic status but exhibit very different behavior in regards to following regulations (we have seen plenty of evidence of this over the past 6 months in Melbourne).

I have long had the belief that you can pretty much track how succesful a culture/country is by how succesfully follow rules. Think about many of the most succesful countries in the world (Japan, Germany, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Singapore, China) they all have populations that will (generally) follow the law and no surprise these are the countries that are being the most sucessful in combating the virus.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

They probably were in a low socio-econmoic situation as you say.

My point is that being from a low socio-economic status would explain why you would be more likely to contract the virus from working in a meatworks/factory (or other such industry in which you cant work from home) but it doesn't explain why the Afghan's from the Casey cluster felt the need to travel to other households across different suburbs during Stage 4 lockdown in direct contradiction to the law at the time.

That was just selfish behavior and cannot be justified in any way. It is a mentality that says "I only care about my immediate family, the rest of you can get stuffed".

That kind of behaviour is (in my mind) a large part due to sspecific cultural factors (i.e. which cultures are more or less likely to follow the rules) than any socio-econmoic factor. Put it this way I would have been immensely surprised if that had of been multiple Chinese or Japanese families caught in those kind of shenanigans. Two cultural groups could be from an identical socio-econmoic status but exhibit very different behavior in regards to following regulations (we have seen plenty of evidence of this over the past 6 months in Melbourne).

I have long had the belief that you can pretty much track how succesful a culture/country is by how succesfully follow rules. Think about many of the most succesful countries in the world (Japan, Germany, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Singapore, China) they all have populations that will (generally) follow the law and no surprise these are the countries that are being the most sucessful in combating the virus.

My German friend at work, attributes it to the main reason they let Hitler get a stranglehold.
( General Patton actually recognized it in the german troops and wanted to concript them to run the Russians back out of Germany. Dismissed as an insane idea, it could have been a magnificent sliding door moment in history , for both the Germans and the west ).

But yes , it works well for virus control.

 

[HTT]

Any chance Qld and WA opens to Sydney and Victoria at the same time.

I.e both jurisdictions are now considered on par with each other in terms of minimal community transmission?

I’d say it’s pretty likely. In fact perhaps even open to Victoria first as Victoria is aiming for elimination in everything but official wording, while NSW is content for the occasional cluster to occur - and to their credit they have been able to deal with that no problem for 3 months now.

 

[Kangapirate]

I’d say it’s pretty likely. In fact perhaps even open to Victoria first as Victoria is aiming for elimination in everything but official wording, while NSW is content for the occasional cluster to occur - and to their credit they have been able to deal with that no problem for 3 months now.

I think Victoria is hoping for elimination by default, but it’s more likely Vic will be like NSW putting out the occasional cluster, NSW has frequently gone long periods of no local transmission only for it to resurface. One more outbreak even a small one pretty much kills off elimination hopes with the place opening right up next weekend.

 

[HTT]

I think Victoria is hoping for elimination by default, but it’s more likely Vic will be like NSW putting out the occasional cluster, NSW has frequently gone long periods of no local transmission only for it to resurface. One more outbreak even a small one pretty much kills off elimination hopes with the place opening right up next weekend.

We won’t start seeing the effects of the third step for another week, and then we won’t see the effects of the changes in Nov 8 for another couple of weeks after that. And in the last 7 days I think every cases is either likely to be declared a false positive, or linked to the exisiting northern suburbs outbreak and already isolating. We’re in the strongest position we’ve been since this all started. It’s entirely possible there’s another case lurking out there, but the more donut days we get, the more compelling the argument is that there isn’t.

 

[BringBackTorps]

Argentina, pop. 44m, has had the world's longest & strictest lockdown. It closed its borders in mid March (when it had 12 confirmed cases).
In early May, it had c. 4700 total cases (from the start of the year up to early May). It is a fairly advanced country.

Lockdown provisions were slightly eased from early May (total 4700 cases then- not daily, & not deaths).

However, many people from early May did not, from then, observe properly the more relaxed provisions ("covid is not really a serious problem for Argentina"!)...& covid started to rise exponentially.
In early August, a total of c. 200,000 had contracted covid19 from the start of the year.

Now, it has had c. 1.2m cases, with 31k deaths- a warning how quickly a covid disaster can emerge.

Argentina COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Argentina Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Scroll down for the nos.


A more detailed description here of how their initial great success was squandered.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-argentina-million-quarantine-lockdown/2020/10/26/65eefde2-149c-11eb-bc10-40b25382f1be_story.html

 

[troybe]

Massachusetts has a similar population to Victoria. This is yesterday’s cases/deaths. They should give Uncle Danny a call to sort their s**t out.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Lemma]

Massachusetts' issue is that it is part of USA. If you could move it to Australia they might have a chance

 

[SaintsSeptember]

View attachment 1001623

Massachusetts has a similar population to Victoria. This is yesterday’s cases/deaths. They should give Uncle Danny a call to sort their sh*t out.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

We had a few local government area's with bad covid19 , with overflow and isolated outbreaks in other areas.
They are riddled with it.

 

[the harry]

How is it all feeling in Vic ? Another day off zero is great to see.

NSW nearly the equal worst state for activates now.

 

[HTT]

How is it all feeling in Vic ? Another day off zero is great to see.

NSW nearly the equal worst state for activates now.

I can’t speak for everyone but personally I couldn’t be happier with where we are, think there’s a realistic chance we’ve had our last cluster - but also aware it could be lurking somewhere.

There is a fair bit more normality, shopping centres this weekend have been a bit busier than you’d like but in the south east anyway, mask compliance is super high. I went mid week to go the the AFL store and I reckon I only saw one person without a face mask on, and they had a shield instead so I would assume they have some exemption and are doing what they can.

Hoping QR code check in becomes more commonplace to make contact tracing easier, so fingers crossed the government gets onto that.

 

[CatFan79]

mask compliance is super high

Don't buy into Dan's mask obsession. Totally irrelevant now there's people hanging out in enclosed cafes/pubs etc for extended periods of time without them.

Can't wait to get down the beach today, no chance I'm wearing a mask.

 

[HTT]

Mask compliance is super high, unfortunately not 100% due to people thinking the rules don't apply to them

Exhibit A

Don't buy into Dan's mask obsession. Totally irrelevant now there's people hanging out in enclosed cafes/pubs etc for extended periods of time without them.

Can't wait to get down the beach today, no chance I'm wearing a mask.

 

[CatFan79]

Mask compliance is super high, unfortunately not 100% due to people thinking the rules don't apply to them

Exhibit A

Hahaha oh no, I've been outed by another Dan Andrews die-hard. Think for yourself for a change.

Pop-quiz for the sheep...
Q.
-Walking on a quiet beach, alone, with nobody within 30 metres of me.
-Sitting inside an enclosed cafe for an hour with 20 other strangers.
Which environment is conducive for spreading covid and which one isn't? Cross check that with the stupid mask rules....

A.
....

 

[HTT]

Hahaha oh no, I've been outed by another Dan Andrews die-hard. Think for yourself for a change.

Pop-quiz for the sheep...
Q.
-Walking on a quiet beach, alone, with nobody within 30 metres of me.
-Sitting inside an enclosed cafe for an hour with 20 other strangers.
Which environment is conducive for spreading covid and which one isn't? Cross check that with the stupid mask rules....

A.
....

Personally I use mask usage as a proxy for following other rules. If someone is so inconvenienced by masks they refuse to wear them, will they keep distancing where possible, will they stay at home and get tested if they are sick, will the follow the rules with home visits? I doubt it.