News Coronavirus and the draft

[GUMBLETRON]

First step

Community football gets green light, training rules revealed

AFL Victoria is permitting community footballers to train in groups of 10 from Monday

www.afl.com.au

 

[philthy05]

Just did this on the Swans board but I looked at Cal Twomey's top 10 draft prospects for 2019 a year out from the 2019 draft to see how correct he was.

The next crop: 10 to watch in the 2019 NAB AFL Draft

With 2018 done and dusted, Callum Twomey looks at some of the top prospects for next year's draft

www.afl.com.au

Anderson - Pick 2
Jackson - Pick 3
Jeka - Pick 9 Rookie Draft
Rowell - Pick 1
Serrong - Pick 8
Sharp - Pick 27
Taheny - Pick 50
Williams - Pick 23
Worrell - Pick 28
Young - Pick 7

So a year out, Twomey did predict 5 top 10 players, but the other 5, while all drafted all went considerably later than he expected, especially Jeka who was only picked up in the rookie draft. A 50% strike rate isn't brilliant.

and that isn't a slight on Twomey, but it shows how much things can change in a year. It isn't unreasonable to think that if no under 18's football is played this year that the 2020 draft will be filled with a lot of bad selections, especially in the first round.

I dont think that is far off really.

there was plenty of doubt around jeka, in the recruiting community and here on big footy from memory. I suspect he was on that list because there was next to no talls at that stage and just vague hope that jeka might turn into something

I’m willing to bet my life if they held a draft that day that no team would have taken jeka top ten. He would have slide pretty far I reckon.

sharp at 27, I mean gcs traded pick 11 for him. Plenty of teams would have been interested in him early. Williams at 23 cause of an injury and has shown a bit already this preseason to say he’s got plenty.

taheny is basically the big slider from year to year.

 

[RUNVS]

I dont think that is far off really.

there was plenty of doubt around jeka, in the recruiting community and here on big footy from memory. I suspect he was on that list because there was next to no talls at that stage and just vague hope that jeka might turn into something

I’m willing to bet my life if they held a draft that day that no team would have taken jeka top ten. He would have slide pretty far I reckon.

sharp at 27, I mean gcs traded pick 11 for him. Plenty of teams would have been interested in him early. Williams at 23 cause of an injury and has shown a bit already this preseason to say he’s got plenty.

taheny is basically the big slider from year to year.

Conversely though, what about the players not mentioned who did go top 10. Where would have Lachlan Ash, Dylan Stephens, Fischer McAsey, Liam Henry and Tom Green have been drafted had the draft been held a year earlier?

I am always reminded of Clayton Oliver and how he was on no ones radar a year before he was drafted, and he ended up going pick 3.

 

[philthy05]

Conversely though, what about the players not mentioned who did go top 10. Where would have Lachlan Ash, Dylan Stephens, Fischer McAsey, Liam Henry and Tom Green have been drafted had the draft been held a year earlier?

I am always reminded of Clayton Oliver and how he was on no ones radar a year before he was drafted, and he ended up going pick 3.

every single one of those kids was highly rated at the time and would have gone very early.

it’s probably not the best draft to try to establish a difference between expectations and reality a year out as it may have been a freak year.

the bigger variation would have been with the midrange and beyond players.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Conversely though, what about the players not mentioned who did go top 10. Where would have Lachlan Ash, Dylan Stephens, Fischer McAsey, Liam Henry and Tom Green have been drafted had the draft been held a year earlier?

Cal Twomey's top 10 isn't the recruiters top 10 until about a week out from the draft, let alone a full year beforehand.

Green set the U18 champs contested possession record as an U17 - fair to say he was a known prospect.

I am always reminded of Clayton Oliver and how he was on no ones radar a year before he was drafted, and he ended up going pick 3.

Oliver wasn't even on the radar well into his draft year, given he missed academy and champs selection. There are late bloomers who'll slip through without U18 footy and he's the best example, but the bulk are well known.

 

[andleanback]

Cal Twomey's top 10 isn't the recruiters top 10 until about a week out from the draft, let alone a full year beforehand.

Green set the U18 champs contested possession record as an U17 - fair to say he was on the radar.

Exactly just because twomey has players as his top 10 doesn’t mean the recruiters see it the same way. Flanders, Henry, pickett were always around the mark. A good champs from Kemp was the one that really got recruiters talking until he did his knee. Twomey gets his top 10/ first round predictions to hit the mark when he finds out which kids are invited to night 1 of the draft, will he interesting to see how he goes this year if there isn’t a live event...

 

[briztoon]

Just did this on the Swans board but I looked at Cal Twomey's top 10 draft prospects for 2019 a year out from the 2019 draft to see how correct he was.

The next crop: 10 to watch in the 2019 NAB AFL Draft

With 2018 done and dusted, Callum Twomey looks at some of the top prospects for next year's draft

www.afl.com.au

Anderson - Pick 2
Jackson - Pick 3
Jeka - Pick 9 Rookie Draft
Rowell - Pick 1
Serrong - Pick 8
Sharp - Pick 27
Taheny - Pick 50
Williams - Pick 23
Worrell - Pick 28
Young - Pick 7

So a year out, Twomey did predict 5 top 10 players, but the other 5, while all drafted all went considerably later than he expected, especially Jeka who was only picked up in the rookie draft. A 50% strike rate isn't brilliant.

and that isn't a slight on Twomey, but it shows how much things can change in a year. It isn't unreasonable to think that if no under 18's football is played this year that the 2020 draft will be filled with a lot of bad selections, especially in the first round.

See there’s you’re mistake from the very beginning.

It’s not Twomey’s top 10 draft prospects.

It’s 10 draft prospects to watch, listed in alphabetical order.

He’s picked kids from each state and/or Championship team, to watch, some because they had a story behind their inclusion.

Twomey does this after each years draft, highlights 10 players to watch for next year. And if you talk to Twomey on Twitter he’ll tell you himself, that he only posts his first ratings list after that years U18 Championships.

I’m not defending Twomey so much here, more pointing out you’ve jumped to the wrong conclusion using his article as such a guide.

 

[briztoon]

Just to add on.

I don’t disagree with the premise of your post, that there’ll be much more uncertainty in this years draft.

Just believe using Twomey’s article is wide of the mark.

 

[andleanback]

Victorian Government bringing forward exams back to November, shortens the time period afl vic has to operate with. Any games would have to be completed around early October you would think.

 

[briztoon]

Victorian Government bringing forward exams back to November, shortens the time period afl vic has to operate with. Any games would have to be completed around early October you would think.

Can’t play after, during the holidays?

 

[andleanback]

Can’t play after, during the holidays?

i doubt it clubs arent allowed contact with the kids usually leading up and during exams, so that would be a massive chuck of time they arent training much.

 

[Jen2310]

Victorian Government bringing forward exams back to November, shortens the time period afl vic has to operate with. Any games would have to be completed around early October you would think.

Things must have changed in the last 15 or so years since I graduated. Exams were in oct. I remember I graduated on my 18th birthday late October.

 

[Davo-27]

*Prediction*

if i had to guess at list sizes for next season and into the future after this season, i think the AFL will scrap rookies, they have kindve already moved in this direction so removing it completely i would guess is likely, they will give exemptions to cat b as add ons to lists and keep 2 places available for those types of players, i think the afl will probably reduce lists to 40 players + cat b if any team has them, which is a reduction of approx 4-6 to the list and then of course clubs will have to have 2 spots available to go into the draft/trade, so i think if this is accurate there will be a change of 6-8 players for each club with 2 coming in or redrafted? if i had to predict the number of draftees, it might be around 40-50 which is a low point for talent coming in, recently theres been approx 75 taken each year, so definately a reduction.

 

[Lore]

Explainer: What does COVID-19 mean for this year's NAB AFL Draft?

Get the latest on how clubs are tracking this year's draft class

www.afl.com.au

 

[andleanback]

Cannot see the nab league commencing on August 22nd, or APS season beginning in late July.

 

[eDPS]

Cannot see the nab league commencing on August 22nd, or APS season beginning in late July.

2020 can’t end quicker

 

[Giant Strides]

2020 can’t end quicker

Hang on - we need for 2020 to stay around as long as it takes to get rid of COVID-19. We don't want 2021 to be as crappy as 2020. One bad year is enough!

 

[TradeDraft]

Be a very Tough Draft as looking like there be no Footy for the Vic Kids in 2020.

So would the AFL Change there Mind of Having the Draft this year?

 

[TradeDraft]

Hang on - we need for 2020 to stay around as long as it takes to get rid of COVID-19. We don't want 2021 to be as crappy as 2020. One bad year is enough!

There definitely be Covid in 2021

 

[briztoon]

The AFL might need to run a week long coaching type camp for potential Vic draftees, where recruiters can at least assess skills, etc over the course of the week, with the camp culminating in a Vic Metro v Vic Country.

 

[andleanback]

The AFL might need to run a week long coaching type camp for potential Vic draftees, where recruiters can at least assess skills, etc over the course of the week, with the camp culminating in a Vic Metro v Vic Country.

That’s most likely what will happen, if we get to that point. In similar vein to the academy camps.

 

[eDPS]

Gee getting to practise matches isn’t worth it is it

 

[briztoon]

Gee getting to practise matches isn’t worth it is it

All I need to know is, was Conole at those matches?

 

[Jen2310]

Be a very Tough Draft as looking like there be no Footy for the Vic Kids in 2020.

So would the AFL Change there Mind of Having the Draft this year?

No, the draft will go ahead. If there is no U18 footy this year, then recruiters will have to go on past performers. Its a compromised draft anyway, so most recruiters know who they are getting.

But think it will depend what August looks likel

 

[TradeDraft]

The AFL might need to run a week long coaching type camp for potential Vic draftees, where recruiters can at least assess skills, etc over the course of the week, with the camp culminating in a Vic Metro v Vic Country.

But what IF they can't leave the State this Year?