News Coronavirus and the draft

[GUMBLETRON]

First step

Community football gets green light, training rules revealed

AFL Victoria is permitting community footballers to train in groups of 10 from Monday

www.afl.com.au

 

[CatToTheFuture]

What is all this draft lottery garbage I keep hearing?
Originally the lottery was proposed as a way of reducing the incentive to tank late in a season. Now there doesn't seem to be any rational justification. Maybe just so the afl has something else to pump or to help kids better understand odds.

Yeah lottery doesn't make any sense to me either. Though if you gave the cats a 3 in 19 chance of pick 1 I'd probably be for it. 16% shot at pick 1, 2% chance at pick 1 and 2. 0.1% shot at getting picks 1, 2 and 3. Sign me up for this nonsense immediately

 

[TradeDraft]

What is all this draft lottery garbage I keep hearing?
Originally the lottery was proposed as a way of reducing the incentive to tank late in a season. Now there doesn't seem to be any rational justification. Maybe just so the afl has something else to pump or to help kids better understand odds.

IF no Footy then really hard to have a Proper Draft Order

 

[TradeDraft]

Could we seen the last of the Cat-B Rookie for sometime?

 

[perplexed]

IF no Footy then really hard to have a Proper Draft Order

Not so hard that we have to start chucking darts at a board.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

IF no Footy then really hard to have a Proper Draft Order

Footy will be back if not in June then late in the year

 

[Mego Red]

Not so hard that we have to start chucking darts at a board.

That's not how a lottery would work, FFS.

The simplest version is the bottom 10 sides from 2019 will enter a weighted lottery for the top picks. More complicated version could split it to 6/6/6, or weight for off-season changes (unlikely) or weight for whatever happens in a cut-short season (very likely).

I can't imagine they would just do another draft based on where sides finished in 2019.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

That's not how a lottery would work, FFS.

The simplest version is the bottom 10 sides from 2019 will enter a weighted lottery for the top picks. More complicated version could split it to 6/6/6, or weight for off-season changes (unlikely) or weight for whatever happens in a cut-short season (very likely).

I can't imagine they would just do another draft based on where sides finished in 2019.

Seriously would not be required.

This is the ladder after round 10 last year:

AFL Ladder: After 2019 Round 10

Computer predictions, tips, picks and ratings for the Australian Football League, National Football League (USA), National Rugby League (AUS) and Super Rugby (AUS, NZ, RSA, ARG, JAP).

footyforecaster.com

Adelaide, Freo, Essendon, and the dogs are in the wrong order by a few picks. Outside of that it's not material.

That's better than random and that's 10 out of 22. In a 17 round season you'd need 8 rounds to get the same proportion of the season accounted for. We already have one round done so even if they only managed another 7 rounds for the year you'd have something better than random selection. AFL is confident of getting 17 games out.

Combining the 20-21 draft class probably has merit.

 

[perplexed]

That's not how a lottery would work, FFS.

The simplest version is the bottom 10 sides from 2019 will enter a weighted lottery for the top picks. More complicated version could split it to 6/6/6, or weight for off-season changes (unlikely) or weight for whatever happens in a cut-short season (very likely).

I can't imagine they would just do another draft based on where sides finished in 2019.

If you going to base the lottery on 2019 ladder positions, why not just use 2019 ladder positions? What does a lottery add, other than absurdity?
Maybe the afl can get their favourite sports betting agency to run it. I hear those guys are doing it tough right now.

 

[briztoon]

That's not how a lottery would work, FFS.

The simplest version is the bottom 10 sides from 2019 will enter a weighted lottery for the top picks. More complicated version could split it to 6/6/6, or weight for off-season changes (unlikely) or weight for whatever happens in a cut-short season (very likely).

I can't imagine they would just do another draft based on where sides finished in 2019.

I believe your missing a key component of the lottery discussion.

How do you decide the weighting for each team?

In the NBA they still run a full season before applying the weighted percentage to each team.

And then they still have a number of safety guards in built in to the system.

For example, the lottery is to only pick select the top 3 picks.

It has the provision that the team with the most losses, can finish no worse off than with the 4th pick.

After the bottom 3 picks are established, then the rest of the teams pick as per their ladder position.

If you’re going to use the 2019 ladder to determine the weighted percentage for each team, just use the actual ladder.

As neither option provides a realistic semblance of what the actual 2020 ladder might have looked like.

 

[briztoon]

If you going to base the lottery on 2019 ladder positions, why not just use 2019 ladder positions? What does a lottery add, other than absurdity?
Maybe the afl can get their favourite sports betting agency to run it. I hear those guys are doing it tough right now.

lol beat me to it.

 

[Joao]

I'd almost like to see the lottery used and Tigers or GWS ends up with pick 1. The melts on here and in the media would be glorious.

On a serious note I think it is absurd that all top 4 teams from last year would have a chance at pick 1. If it is a lottery it should be restricted.

 

[briztoon]

I'd almost like to see the lottery used and Tigers or GWS ends up with pick 1. The melts on here and in the media would be glorious.

On a serious note I think it is absurd that all top 4 teams from last year would have a chance at pick 1. If it is a lottery it should be restricted.

The lottery system doesn’t give a chance to teams in the finals. It’s only takes place for the teams that miss finals.

 

[Joao]

The lottery system doesn’t give a chance to teams in the finals. It’s only takes place for the teams that miss finals.

Didn't Twomey's article mention that everyone had a chance at no 1 but it just scaled down so it was unlikely for the top teams? Not suggesting he is designing the thing but if that is his understanding then I am worried.

 

[Mego Red]

If you going to base the lottery on 2019 ladder positions, why not just use 2019 ladder positions? What does a lottery add, other than absurdity?
Maybe the afl can get their favourite sports betting agency to run it. I hear those guys are doing it tough right now.

What does it add?

The Crows are a bottom three team. The Suns are improving, as are Melbourne (obviously) and Carlton. The 2019 ladder is close to irrelevant, because squads have changed so much.

Doing the same as 2019 is obviously wrong. At least the lottery brings chance into it, to give those teams who have started their rebuild a chance to get the early pick they deserve.

 

[Mego Red]

I'd almost like to see the lottery used and Tigers or GWS ends up with pick 1. The melts on here and in the media would be glorious.

On a serious note I think it is absurd that all top 4 teams from last year would have a chance at pick 1. If it is a lottery it should be restricted.

They wouldn't have a chance.

 

[Mego Red]

I believe your missing a key component of the lottery discussion.

How do you decide the weighting for each team?

In the NBA they still run a full season before applying the weighted percentage to each team.

And then they still have a number of safety guards in built in to the system.

For example, the lottery is to only pick select the top 3 picks.

It has the provision that the team with the most losses, can finish no worse off than with the 4th pick.

After the bottom 3 picks are established, then the rest of the teams pick as per their ladder position.

If you’re going to use the 2019 ladder to determine the weighted percentage for each team, just use the actual ladder.

As neither option provides a realistic semblance of what the actual 2020 ladder might have looked like.

That's not a serious objection.

You obviously only have the ten teams that finish outside the finals in the lottery. So a version could be the bottom side has 100 balls, second bottom has 90, etc.

Or whatever maths weighting you choose. Anything is better than assuming sides are the same as a year ago, or not having a draft.

 

[rusman]

What about a vote then lottery system.

Each teams coaches / list managers rank all other clubs in order of best to worst teams. Excluding themselves. Use the weighted average to select ladder order

Then after that use that as a weighted lottery.

 

[perplexed]

What does it add?

The Crows are a bottom three team. The Suns are improving, as are Melbourne (obviously) and Carlton. The 2019 ladder is close to irrelevant, because squads have changed so much.

Doing the same as 2019 is obviously wrong. At least the lottery brings chance into it, to give those teams who have started their rebuild a chance to get the early pick they deserve.

Of course the ladder changes from year to year. But not that much. 5 of last year's bottom 6 lost in round one. The other one had a narrow win against another bottom half team.
You seem to be proposing a lottery solely to give your team a chance of a high pick. Even the versions of lottery you propose suggest this.

 

[briztoon]

Pretty good discussion about the whole situation in today’s Lystics podcast.

 

[RUNVS]

This draft is almost going to be like th drafts of the early 90's where the teams spent about 3 days looking at the young players play, rock up to th draft and go for the guy that they heard from a friend of a friend is a good player.

 

[Smythe]

This draft is almost going to be like th drafts of the early 90's where the teams spent about 3 days looking at the young players play, rock up to th draft and go for the guy that they heard from a friend of a friend is a good player.

maybe that is how gold coast draft. im pretty sure he other clubs will have a fair idea of whats what after following the players for at least the last 2 years for some of them. the only "ifs" are the ones like tanner bruhn, kaine baldwin who were injured last year and are not really going to get to show their growth this year, and the other "if" are players who have breakout top age years, probably not going to get to see that. the clubs will know enough about who they want and are going to pick from their board, and luckily its not a deep draft pool this year anyway as it looks like the draft may only be 2 rounds. im hearing clubs will have rights to their academy and father sons if they are nominated. this of course all depends on lists size changes handed down from afl.

 

[briztoon]

I’m hearing clubs will have rights to their academy and father sons if they are nominated. this of course all depends on lists size changes handed down from afl.

Hearing this where?

Twomey mentioned it in a recent article as a “maybe”.

We (the Lions) might have one or two second round talents in this years draft, and I don’t expect to get them for free.

I’d actually be pretty dirty if clubs got their academy kids for “free”, and were able to then pick up another kid in the same round.

I wouldn’t have a problem if teams didn’t have to outright match bids with points, but rather lost their next pick, as a one off in this draft.

So, say if JUH is bid on at pick 2, Bulldogs can match with their first round pick. Similarly Sydney with Campbell, or Collingwood with McInness.

 

[TheGrizz]

If indeed there is no season played, i would go a bracketed lottery from last years ladder to determine draft order for two rounds only.
The idea being that the ladder last year is beoken into 3 brackets, with each team getting a lottery chance of getting the highest pick in that bracket.

Basically

Bracket number 1
2019 ladder 13-18 vie for top 6 picks:
GCS (2019 18th place) = 29% chance of getting pick 1
MEL (2019 17th place) = 23% chance of getting pick 1
CAR (2019 16th place) = 18% chance of getting pick 1
SYD (2019 15th place) = 14% chance of getting pick 1
STK (2019 14th place) = 10% chance of getting pick 1
FRE (2019 13th place) = 6% chance of getting pick 1
And so the rest of the lottery is then drawn for picks 2-6 as well, where once a team gets a pick they are removed from the lottery.

And it follows the same percentages and process for the next 2 brackets.
In bracket 2 (2019 teams 12th through 7th), the top pick is pick 7 and the lowest pick is pick 12. So 2019-12th placed North Melbourne would get a 29% chance of getting pick 7, and so on through to 2019-7th placed Bulldogs getting a 6% chance of pick 7.

Same in bracket 3 (2019 teams 6th through 1st) where the top pick available is pick 13 and the lowest is obviously 18.

The rationale is that you may get one bolter a year flying up the order (Brisbane for example) but generally a team will move up or down 2-3 spots so at least this way there is some link between their pick and where they might expect to finish based on last year.

I KNOW it isnt perfect as it doesnt necessarily account for a team like St Kilda which might jump up a bracket from say 14th to 9th, but such is the way in a year where we see no footy you never know.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I'd almost like to see the lottery used and Tigers or GWS ends up with pick 1. The melts on here and in the media would be glorious.

On a serious note I think it is absurd that all top 4 teams from last year would have a chance at pick 1. If it is a lottery it should be restricted.

But the they would have a weighted, small chance at pick 1 or a high pick.

.it's a better concept thn just giving suns. Blues. Etc. Bottom 4 picks again

 

[perplexed]

If indeed there is no season played, i would go a bracketed lottery from last years ladder to determine draft order for two rounds only.
The idea being that the ladder last year is beoken into 3 brackets, with each team getting a lottery chance of getting the highest pick in that bracket.

Basically

Bracket number 1
2019 ladder 13-18 vie for top 6 picks:
GCS (2019 18th place) = 29% chance of getting pick 1
MEL (2019 17th place) = 23% chance of getting pick 1
CAR (2019 16th place) = 18% chance of getting pick 1
SYD (2019 15th place) = 14% chance of getting pick 1
STK (2019 14th place) = 10% chance of getting pick 1
FRE (2019 13th place) = 6% chance of getting pick 1
And so the rest of the lottery is then drawn for picks 2-6 as well, where once a team gets a pick they are removed from the lottery.

And it follows the same percentages and process for the next 2 brackets.
In bracket 2 (2019 teams 12th through 7th), the top pick is pick 7 and the lowest pick is pick 12. So 2019-12th placed North Melbourne would get a 29% chance of getting pick 7, and so on through to 2019-7th placed Bulldogs getting a 6% chance of pick 7.

Same in bracket 3 (2019 teams 6th through 1st) where the top pick available is pick 13 and the lowest is obviously 18.

The rationale is that you may get one bolter a year flying up the order (Brisbane for example) but generally a team will move up or down 2-3 spots so at least this way there is some link between their pick and where they might expect to finish based on last year.

I KNOW it isnt perfect as it doesnt necessarily account for a team like St Kilda which might jump up a bracket from say 14th to 9th, but such is the way in a year where we see no footy you never know.

Would you still support a bracketed lottery if there were only two brackets, last years finalists and the rest?
I suspect you wouldn't.
A lottery makes no sense in the first place. But If you bracket it, you create arbitrary winners and losers by where you draw the brackets.