News Coronavirus and the draft

[GUMBLETRON]

First step

Community football gets green light, training rules revealed

AFL Victoria is permitting community footballers to train in groups of 10 from Monday

www.afl.com.au

 

[TheGrizz]

Would you still support a bracketed lottery if there were only two brackets, last years finalists and the rest?
I suspect you wouldn't.
A lottery makes no sense in the first place. But If you bracket it, you create arbitrary winners and losers by where you draw the brackets.

I would support that actually. They do it in the NBA and it works fine and creates a lot of excitement.

But even in the NBA the team with the best odds (i.e the lowest ranked team) is guaranteed to get no lower than the fourth pick. My bracketed system ensures that teams like WB and Essendon dont luck out and get pick 1 which they would never have got anywhere near im real life

But if they did do a bracketed lottery and decided to split it between finals and not finals, that could work too and i wouldnt bat an eyelid.

Btw, how much of you disappproving my idea comes with the fact North cant get the number 1 pick?

 

[perplexed]

I would support that actually. They do it in the NBA and it works fine and creates a lot of excitement.

But even in the NBA the team with the best odds (i.e the lowest ranked team) is guaranteed to get no lower than the fourth pick. My bracketed system ensures that teams like WB and Essendon dont luck out and get pick 1 which they would never have got anywhere near im real life

But if they did do a bracketed lottery and decided to split it between finals and not finals, that could work too and i wouldnt bat an eyelid.

Btw, how much of you disappproving my idea comes with the fact North cant get the number 1 pick?

Considering North have Melbourne's pick too, I doubt you could devise a lottery where North don't have a decent chance at pick one.
As I've said earlier, a draft lottery was only originally proposed to take away the benefits of tanking late in a season. That isn't happening here. A lottery is exactly the type of silly gambling based event that the afl love to promote. But it adds nothing else.

 

[Smythe]

Hearing this where?

Twomey mentioned it in a recent article as a “maybe”.

We (the Lions) might have one or two second round talents in this years draft, and I don’t expect to get them for free.

I’d actually be pretty dirty if clubs got their academy kids for “free”, and were able to then pick up another kid in the same round.

I wouldn’t have a problem if teams didn’t have to outright match bids with points, but rather lost their next pick, as a one off in this draft.

So, say if JUH is bid on at pick 2, Bulldogs can match with their first round pick. Similarly Sydney with Campbell, or Collingwood with McInness.

that is what im hearing will be a very likely case

 

[briztoon]

that is what im hearing will be a very likely case

I’ll ask again, hearing from where/who?

 

[TheGrizz]

that is what im hearing will be a very likely case

As in being able to pre-list them prior to the draft or just matching a bid for them for their next pick?

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Draft lotteries serve one purpose: to diminish the incentive to tank, at the expense of equalisation.

Here, they don't actually address the problem: that whoever winds up with pick 1 might not have earned pick 1 had the season played out.

History tells us that the team who came last previously is most likely to come last again. It's no certainty, but if you attempt to address that uncertainty by handing that pick to another team via lottery, you only make the outcome less probable and hence less fair.

 

[Mego Red]

Of course the ladder changes from year to year. But not that much. 5 of last year's bottom 6 lost in round one. The other one had a narrow win against another bottom half team.
You seem to be proposing a lottery solely to give your team a chance of a high pick. Even the versions of lottery you propose suggest this.

Ummm, no s**t.

We're a bottom three team and far worse than last year, which can be seen by the massive list change we undertook. Not playing the season and just giving us a pick based on last year directly and negatively impacts us.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Not playing the season and just giving us a pick based on last year directly and negatively impacts us.

Odds are a lottery based on last year does much the same.

 

[Mego Red]

Odds are a lottery based on last year does much the same.

True. But doing nothing pretty much locks in that we will be negatively affected.

 

[briztoon]

As in being able to pre-list them prior to the draft or just matching a bid for them for their next pick?

Pre-listing them prior to the draft.

 

[TheGrizz]

Pre-listing them prior to the draft.

Would be an absolute boon for the bulldogs, essendon and Collingwood.

 

[briztoon]

Would be an absolute boon for the bulldogs, essendon and Collingwood.

Who’s Essendon got?

Sydney x2, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Port and Fremantle all benefit as well, with high end talent.

Brisbane likely try and get our kids through to next years draft as overage academy kids.

Unless we try and trade one of our first round picks in to 2021.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Who’s Essendon got?

Brand and Eyre, a pair of promising Calder bookends.

 

[briztoon]

Brand and Eyre, a pair of promising Calder bookends.

I’m interested to see how many of the later nga, father son and academy kids get picked up if the AFL do cut lists back to 35.

Just using Brisbane as an example, we have two first round picks.

If we can’t package them to trade up, then maybe be we just draft two kids we rate, and that’s it. And hope no other teams consider drafting our academy kids, and we bring them back as overage U19 academy members.

Which is what we did with Keidean Coleman last year. He spent the year training and playing in our NEAFL team, and was bid on, in the second round.

 

[Joao]

But the they would have a weighted, small chance at pick 1 or a high pick.

.it's a better concept thn just giving suns. Blues. Etc. Bottom 4 picks again

It's really not if you are taking it seriously, but it sure would be amusing.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Think its only fair that for this year only.
kids can go to the club they grew up supporting.

 

[Nutjob]

I would support that actually. They do it in the NBA and it works fine and creates a lot of excitement.

But even in the NBA the team with the best odds (i.e the lowest ranked team) is guaranteed to get no lower than the fourth pick. My bracketed system ensures that teams like WB and Essendon dont luck out and get pick 1 which they would never have got anywhere near im real life

But if they did do a bracketed lottery and decided to split it between finals and not finals, that could work too and i wouldnt bat an eyelid.

Btw, how much of you disappproving my idea comes with the fact North cant get the number 1 pick?

North have Dee’s first pick. Whether it’s a lottery or going off 2019 ladder, that trade is looking like daylight robbery.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TheGrizz]

North have Dee’s first pick. Whether it’s a lottery or going off 2019 ladder, that trade is looking like daylight robbery.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

This is true, i had forgotten about that. Looks good now but Melbourne are bloody unlucky.
No one could have predicted what has happened with the coronavirus

They were a good chance to finish, at the least with a full list, maybe 12th at the worst.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Draft lotteries serve one purpose: to diminish the incentive to tank, at the expense of equalisation.

Here, they don't actually address the problem: that whoever winds up with pick 1 might not have earned pick 1 had the season played out.

History tells us that the team who came last previously is most likely to come last again. It's no certainty, but if you attempt to address that uncertainty by handing that pick to another team via lottery, you only make the outcome less probable and hence less fair.

Not completely true. There is still incentive to tank.

The last NBA team gets a bottom 5 pick. 100 percent. (Curry's warriors)

The 2nd last team gets a bottom6 pick. Etc.

1	14.0	13.4	12.7	12.0	47.9										3.7
2	14.0	13.4	12.7	12.0	27.8	20.0

There is still incentive. Hence half the NBA teams pretty much blow if up around half way into a normal season.

There is probably no fair way to do it due to losing a season. A lottery would at least be more interesting than doing the same draft order as last season.

 

[Marcel Proust]

The lottery system doesn’t give a chance to teams in the finals. It’s only takes place for the teams that miss finals.

Thatd be a big dumb for the afl who only has 8 non post season teams

Unlike the NBA 30

Surely all teams should be in it? Just heavily waited

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Not completely true. There is still incentive to tank.

I said diminish, not eliminate.

 

[briztoon]

Thatd be a big dumb for the afl who only has 8 non post season teams

Unlike the NBA 30fin

Surely all teams should be in it? Just heavily waited

I don’t see it that way. The top 8 should just stick to their final finish position on the ladder.

No finals to deserves to be rewarded ahead of a non finals team.

That goes against the idea of equalisation.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I don’t see it that way. The top 8 should just stick to their final finish position on the ladder.

No finals to deserves to be rewarded ahead of a non finals team.

That goes against the idea of equalisation.

The bad sides have already been rewarded. the high picks, in the last draft. Rowell. Etc.

You are letting them double dip which seems a bit odd

 

[briztoon]

The bad sides have already been rewarded. the high picks, in the last draft. Rowell. Etc.

You are letting them double dip which seems a bit odd

They’re still bad sides by any sensible metric.

It’s not like Richmond, Collingwood, the Eagles or Brisbane have fallen off a cliff and aren’t finals contenders.

You’re trying to gain an advantage at the expense of obviously weaker teams.

Seriously, which bottom 10 team from last year would be a genuine contender against Richmond in a GF?

 

[Marcel Proust]

They’re still bad sides by any sensible metric.

It’s not like Richmond, Collingwood, the Eagles or Brisbane have fallen off a cliff and aren’t finals contenders.

You’re trying to gain an advantage at the expense of obviously weaker teams.

Seriously, which bottom 10 team from last year would be a genuine contender against Richmond in a GF?

They bad but the have already being rewarded for being poor teams. To just redo the draft based on last seasons ladder seems an unsatisfactory idea.

Giving Richmond 0.01% of the lottery balls. Giants 0.05 etc. Really wouldn't be a big deal would it?

It's a extremely small chance of winning the lottery but it would make it interesting. You could still ensure suns gets a top5 pick. Blues gets a top7 pick, or whatever based on the NBA system.

Richmond are the champions; I don't want pick1 I like get Higgins. RCD type late first round but it would make the lottery more interesting if doggies or geeling had some change of a high pick

Doing it without the top4 teams. So the 5th team the lowest chance of winning might work too. But then blokes like you would complain if the eagles get pick1