Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact II

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MrWoollie

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The big difference being with total lockdown they will get a much lower community transmission rate

we on the other hand are still transmitting through community transmission. We have in our favour apocryphal evidence that the virus doesnt like heat - we have that advantage compared to nz - but there would be thousands of people who work at woolies and elsewhere who are asymptomatic carriers spreading this thing unawares. Everything they touch is a potential viral source that social distancing cant avoid.
NZ supermarkets are also open. Just like Oz they can have workers who are asymptomatic carriers. After all, the infection rate is very close to that of Oz.

Rules are virtually the same, the major one being schools are totally shut in NZ while they are at level 4...

NZ
As long as you're not unwell, you can leave your house to:
  • access essential services, like buying groceries, or going to a bank or pharmacy
  • go to work if you work for an essential service
  • go for a walk, or exercise and enjoy nature.
AU
Stay at home unless you are:
  • going to work or education (if you are unable to do so at home)
  • shopping for essential supplies such as groceries, return home without delay
  • going out for personal exercise in the neighbourhood, on your own or with one other
  • attending medical appointments or compassionate visits
 

Rowan18

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The harder border closures are interesting after yesterday (or day before? I have no concept of days anymore) it was being touted that we couldn't become more isolated? Stances seem to be changing often
WA must have one of the biggest land borders of any state in the world. If you have a 4WD there is no way they could keep you out if you wanted to get in.
 

Luuuc

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Interesting, that suggest we hit a flat curve by end of April. What do we do then? Stay isolated for 12-18 months to maintain it? There is no way society will tolerate that.
His earlier predictions had 45,000 infected people by mid-April so I'm not sure what to make of his model. I'm also not sure whether it's tracking total people infected or (total people infected - total people recovered), because unless it is the latter, I don't get how the final days show the total alternately increasing and decreasing by 1.
If it truly flattens out then we wait 2 weeks until no one is infectious and then party like it's 1999
#dreaming
 
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NZ supermarkets are also open. Just like Oz they can have workers who are asymptomatic carriers. After all, the infection rate is very close to that of Oz.

Rules are virtually the same, the major one being schools are totally shut in NZ while they are at level 4...

NZ
As long as you're not unwell, you can leave your house to:
  • access essential services, like buying groceries, or going to a bank or pharmacy
  • go to work if you work for an essential service
  • go for a walk, or exercise and enjoy nature.
AU
Stay at home unless you are:
  • going to work or education (if you are unable to do so at home)
  • shopping for essential supplies such as groceries, return home without delay
  • going out for personal exercise in the neighbourhood, on your own or with one other
  • attending medical appointments or compassionate visits
Aaaand kids are virus incubators
 

Coasters7

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Interesting, that suggest we hit a flat curve by end of April. What do we do then? Stay isolated for 12-18 months to maintain it? There is no way society will tolerate that.
Society better decide if they want to sit tight for 12-18 months (or however far the vaccine is away) or start playing Russian roulette with theirs and everyone else’s lives while we let it sweep through the population for herd immunity.. because they are the only two long term options.

Think everyone needs to get used to the fact that this is life until one of those things happen and it’s not changing no matter how low the numbers get tomorrow, next week, or by the end of the month.
 
Apr 30, 2015
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Society better decide if they want to sit tight for 12-18 months (or however far the vaccine is away) or start playing Russian roulette with theirs and everyone else’s lives while we let it sweep through the population for herd immunity.. because they are the only two long term options.

Think everyone needs to get used to the fact that this is life until one of those things happen and it’s not changing no matter how low the numbers get tomorrow, next week, or by the end of the month.
It's stark, isn't it? How long can we continue like this? 3 months? 6? 12? At what point does society fray so much that restrictions have to be lifted and then the virus bounces back? And what then?

Yikes. God speed the vaccine.
 
No arrivals, full stop. Not even if you are from WA. Exceptions will of course apply in some circumstances but overall the arrivals into WA will slow to a trickle.
No domestic arrivals, but international is still ok - seems strange to me. I’ve seen this in a couple of articles about it:

‘West Australians coming back home from overseas would still be able to enter the state after the 11.59pm deadline on Sunday but still have to self-isolate in a hotel.’
 
No domestic arrivals, but international is still ok - seems strange to me. I’ve seen this in a couple of articles about it:

‘West Australians coming back home from overseas would still be able to enter the state after the 11.59pm deadline on Sunday but still have to self-isolate in a hotel.’

As part of the Federal government's ban, though, no non-Australian citizens and PRs can come into Australia anyway - their right to return to home soil must always remain no matter what. I imagine nowadays international arrivals would be very small anyway.
 

Seadog

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On March 16, Scott Morrison announced that:

“The Australian Government has also banned cruise ships from foreign ports (including round trip international cruises originating in Australia) from arriving at Australian ports for an initial 30 days, effective as at 11:59pm Sunday 15 March, 2020. This restriction will help avoid the risk of a cruise ship arriving with a mass outbreak of the virus and putting significant pressure on our health system.”

On the 18th, the Ovation of the Seas dumped 40+ infected passengers in Sydney, on the 19th March the Ruby Princess dumped 2,700 passengers, 450 of whom were infected.

There are still dramas all around the country with cruise ships but Morrison has been let off the hook for this statement. Great idea until it ran into reality.
 
As part of the Federal government's ban, though, no non-Australian citizens and PRs can come into Australia anyway - their right to return to home soil must always remain no matter what. I imagine nowadays international arrivals would be very small anyway.
Yeah true. I’ve just looked into hightailing it back to Perth from NZ and there are no longer direct Auckland-Perth flights with Air New Zealand. So with the state border closing this weekend it won’t be possible.
 
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Interesting, that suggest we hit a flat curve by end of April. What do we do then? Stay isolated for 12-18 months to maintain it? There is no way society will tolerate that.

My guess is we just rock and roll through the various changes to keep the number of current sick at the approximate level and move restrictions up and down based on what is necessary. Any changes rolling back things would have to be slow and steady but those changes can only be released once the number of new daily cases is roughly equal with the resolved cases and that number is below hospital capacity.

So the first days the pubs reopen will be a very clear "venues limited capacity" etc... with no additional functions like poker, karaoke etc... and likewise can be moved up and down based on following case numbers. Likewise allowing people into the state, first from interstate, and then well down the track internationally.

Obviously the first things rolled back will be to do with jobs and the economy, and then eventually we can get the moshpits and sports games back at the end.
 
Jul 19, 2005
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No domestic arrivals, but international is still ok - seems strange to me. I’ve seen this in a couple of articles about it:

‘West Australians coming back home from overseas would still be able to enter the state after the 11.59pm deadline on Sunday but still have to self-isolate in a hotel.’

Probably because we would need other countries to accept them if we forced return.
 
NZ supermarkets are also open. Just like Oz they can have workers who are asymptomatic carriers. After all, the infection rate is very close to that of Oz.

Rules are virtually the same, the major one being schools are totally shut in NZ while they are at level 4...

NZ
As long as you're not unwell, you can leave your house to:
  • access essential services, like buying groceries, or going to a bank or pharmacy
  • go to work if you work for an essential service
  • go for a walk, or exercise and enjoy nature.
AU
Stay at home unless you are:
  • going to work or education (if you are unable to do so at home)
  • shopping for essential supplies such as groceries, return home without delay
  • going out for personal exercise in the neighbourhood, on your own or with one other
  • attending medical appointments or compassionate visits
NZ has been in level 4 lockdown for 8 days. Oz is approaching that level now, but still not there. It’s night and day to what was going on in Australia a week ago. It’ll be interesting to see whether and how the early move by NZ affects the spread and impact of the virus.

Here in NZ all non-essential businesses are closed. What’s open? Grocery stores, pharmacies, medical facilities, emergency services, post offices. That’s pretty much it.

Travel is severely restricted. No non-essential travel is allowed.

Schools and universities are closed. I’m guessing places of worship are also closed.

There’s really * all to do here at the moment except run up hills and smash out push ups.
 
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