Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact III “WA - An Island within an Island”

[ZergMinion]

On an unrelated note, around three weeks ago this link was posted suggesting the US had peaked :

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

At the time it forecast just over 60k deaths.

The new peak on the graph (and I suspect not the last time that changes) is now 1st of May, and the revised death forcast is just under 135k.

I think what this shows is how hard it is to model stupid.

 

[Chris_6678]

I thought it was clear enough in the press conference

I didnt listen to it only read some dot points.

 

[ziad]

I didnt listen to it only read some dot points.

Up to states in essence
Step 1- train in groups of 10 - no contact (AFL look like fools)
Step 2 - closer to competition but probably Step 3
Its all spelt our somewhere

 

[Chris_6678]

Up to states in essence
Step 1- train in groups of 10 - no contact (AFL look like fools)
Step 2 - closer to competition but probably Step 3
Its all spelt our somewhere

In regards to the steps when does each one get changed? or is that a wait a see approach.

 

[DanWCE]

In regards to the steps when does each one get changed? or is that a wait a see approach.

Individual to each state and dependent on community transmission I guess.

If WA relaxes restrictions to step 1 and we get a big spike of cases in different areas I don't think we'll be rushing to step 2

 

[Biggie]

Sunday - Mother’s Day we’ll know more about our restrictions in WA

That day is the day our footy club has been talking about as well - hoping for good news that is.

 

[Smeg Head]

Word on the grapevine is that both WA teams and their CEOs have been told today quarantine is here to stay and that the AFL will likely have to keep us interstate for the entirety of the season if a Perth hub is not on the table. Hearing that Adelaide teams will likely be in a similar situation to us, if hubs are not an option then just scrap the season and start again next year, what's the point when so much is compromised.

Spot on, **** the vfl and that clown in charge of Vic too.

 

[ziad]

In regards to the steps when does each one get changed? or is that a wait a see approach.

Three week reviews so best case is a month at each step. Apologies for being rushed.
Whats interesting is that the CMO stated very clearly that outdoor activities are very low risk and groups of 10 do not pose risks outdoors. 4 groups of backs, mids, forwards and rehab just about does it. The AFL will/is look foolish as Vic is hell bent on remaining in chains - groups of 2.
The NRL are effectively in full training.

 

[ziad]

Interesting to hear Premier Andrews holding firm on no change yet, and he stated the reason as being that unlike the other states, Victoria had much higher rates of community infection.

Sounds like the top spot for a HUB.

 

[Chris_6678]

The requirements of having the Flu shot in the NRL is bit random.

 

[Chris_6678]

Eh just seen what the primer minister said in regards to community sport.

Doesnt look like anything like Football will be aloud till stage 3 and thats July.

I just want Ammo footy back! Hoping we at least get a shorted season before cricket starts back up.

 

[ashley12]

On an unrelated note, around three weeks ago this link was posted suggesting the US had peaked:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

At the time it forecast just over 60k deaths.

The new peak on the graph (and I suspect not the last time that changes) is now 1st of May, and the revised death forcast is just under 135k.

I think what this shows is how hard it is to model stupid.

IMHE model apparently had been told to put out the single number projections that were in the 95th percentile of positive results (i.e the lower range of guesses) which is why it was very easy to see that number was going to be smoked very early.

USA is already allowing places to reopen and still haven't actually closed off the states. So the moment one place gets it under control or opens up things like hairdressers and bars, everyone is just going to float over there if they are close to the border.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/smartphone-data-shows-out-of-state-visitors-flocked-to-georgia-as-restaurants-and-other-businesses-reopened/2020/05/06/b1db0056-8faf-11ea-9e23-6914ee410a5f_story.html

One week after Georgia allowed dine-in restaurants, hair salons and other businesses to reopen, an additional 62,440 visitors arrived there daily, most from surrounding states where such businesses remained shuttered, according to an analysis of smartphone location data.
In the week after Georgia businesses reopened April 24, a total daily average of 546,159 people traveled there from other states. That included 62,440 more trips daily than in the week before the reopenings — a 13 percent increase, said Lei Zhang, the lead researcher and institute's director. The trips were measured using anonymized location data in smartphone apps.

I would be shocked if the USA got out of this with less than 200k deaths by the end of July.

On the plus side, imagining Australia as a state of the United States and progressively sliding down the state rankings for total cases and deaths has been satisfying to watch as a comparison of the two countries (Australia would now be the 29th ranked State for cases and 37th for deaths)

 

[ashley12]

Eh just seen what the primer minister said in regards to community sport.

Doesnt look like anything like Football will be aloud till stage 3 and thats July.

I just want Ammo footy back! Hoping we at least get a shorted season before cricket starts back up.

To the best of my knowledge the speed and rate at which individual state moves through the stages will be up to the individual states. Which means its likely WA and SA get it back before Victoria and NSW (who I would guess the PM aimed at when discussing, one because it is always about them, and two to not annoy those on the East Coast when WA gets to go outside and play before they do).

 

[Chris_6678]

This is SA's road map

 

[BigBirdz]

Spot on, fu** the vfl and that clown in charge of Vic too.

Eagles and Dockers should spread all their players through the Wafl and just have a cracker of a wafl season.

 

[Biggie]

 

[Biggie]

 

[ziad]

The Death in the home is a 90+ year old who had evidently recovered for the virus but sadly passed away of other courses. As reported by the health minister not the media who prefer a headline

 

[Biggie]

 

[Biggie]

 

[Biggie]

 

[WCErevival]

Down to 7 active cases with 4 of those in hospital.

 

[kane249]

Roy of 'Siegried and Roy' fame has died due to COVID complications

 

[Dazzler9]

Roy of 'Siegried and Roy' fame has died due to COVID complications

Was he the one that got mauled, or was the Siegfried?

 

[kane249]

Was he the one that got mauled, or was the Siegfried?

Yeah he was the one who got mauled