Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact III “WA - An Island within an Island”

[Dazzler9]

"We don’t want people from the east coming here. Don’t come. We don’t want you. Stay away.”

Could make a catchy state slogan.

Makes a great signature quote

 

[MrWoollie]

The US hit a peak of 35 yesterday and today down to 25k. Does that man they are slowing down somewhat?

I just don't think you can get any sort of assessment on simple 1 day to the next figures.
Too many unknowns. Less tests on a Sunday? How quickly are test results incorporated? How long do tests from various areas take to get done?
It's really only smoothed out curves or trends that can give any useful slowdown or not idea.

And let's be honest here. Journos have got nothing better to do than beat up 'we're doing well today' followed by 'we're doing badly compared to yesterday' stories.

 

[RookiePick]

"We don’t want people from the east coming here. Don’t come. We don’t want you. Stay away.”

Could make a catchy state slogan.

There is one I could follow. One I could call king.

 

[kane249]

So update, the Victorian man who broke quarantine and is now in jail did it so he could go visit his girlfriend

Man accused of jimmying hotel door to visit his girlfriend faces $50k fine

A Victorian man who was supposed to spend a fortnight in quarantine at a Perth hotel is facing a fine of up to $50,000 after allegedly jimmying a fire exit door and sneaking out to visit his girlfriend.

www.news.com.au

 

[BigBirdz]

Anyone else heard the rumour that 20 million mobile phone plans in China have stopped being used since this pandemic?

 

[Max zero]

I just don't think you can get any sort of assessment on simple 1 day to the next figures.
Too many unknowns. Less tests on a Sunday? How quickly are test results incorporated? How long do tests from various areas take to get done?
It's really only smoothed out curves or trends that can give any useful slowdown or not idea.

And let's be honest here. Journos have got nothing better to do than beat up 'we're doing well today' followed by 'we're doing badly compared to yesterday' stories.

Probably does not help that states are all at different points of the curve. Some are almost at the peak while others are just starting their growth phase.

 

[Max zero]

So update, the Victorian man who broke quarantine and is now in jail did it so he could go visit his girlfriend

Man accused of jimmying hotel door to visit his girlfriend faces $50k fine

A Victorian man who was supposed to spend a fortnight in quarantine at a Perth hotel is facing a fine of up to $50,000 after allegedly jimmying a fire exit door and sneaking out to visit his girlfriend.

www.news.com.au

Horny makes you dumb I guess.

 

[bombard]

Anyone else heard the rumour that 20 million mobile phone plans in China have stopped being used since this pandemic?

Even if that's true, burners, pre-paids, and negligent payers are way more common in China for mobile. Could be as simple as a whole bunch of people without the money to pay their bills or something.

 

[kane249]

Horny makes you dumb I guess.

Potentially worth $50K and 12 months in jail.

A hooker would have worked out a lot cheaper

 

[avishka5]

Potentially worth $50K and 12 months in jail.

A hooker would have worked out a lot cheaper

or just stay in Melbourne and have a side chick.

 

[avishka5]

Anyone else heard the rumour that 20 million mobile phone plans in China have stopped being used since this pandemic?

I saw that on the joe rogan experience and I've taken it with a grain of salt.

 

[FKASC]

Flu season hasn’t even gotten close, we are a bit naive to think we just need another fortnight and things can start going back to normal. This just a bit of a lull IMO. No epidemiologist though clearly

 

[kranky al]

Have we got a death rate vs ICU treatment?

A brief skim is indicating it's around 50-60%. Someone please tell me I am wrong.

I was reading the other day that once you are on a ventilator your chances are very poor

your lungs are pretty seriously degraded at this point - your body has stopped making the surfactant that keeps the lungs pliable

can't remember the exact figure for death from this point but it was bad - like 80%

edit:


<<<Of these 50 ICU patients, 41 received high-flow humidified oxygen, 33 were intubated, and 3 received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

Only 8 of the 41 patients treated with high-flow oxygen survived, and just one of the intubated patients. Overall, 11 of the 50 ICU patients survived. But those who did recover seemed to do so reasonably rapidly: 75% were discharged within 25 days.>>>


<<<From Washington state in the US, among 21 cases admitted to the ICU, 17 were admitted to ICU within 24 hours of hospital admission and 15 required intubation. Besides their respiratory distress, seven developed heart damage, four suffered kidney failure, and three liver damage. As of March 17, 11 of the patients had died, two had left the ICU, and eight still needed ventilation.>>>

 

[Forward Press]

Flu season hasn’t even gotten close, we are a bit naive to think we just need another fortnight and things can start going back to normal. This just a bit of a lull IMO. No epidemiologist though clearly

One benefit of these harsh measures is that the number of people with the flu this year would be a lot less than previous years - more people isolating at home and avoiding each other means less ability for the flu to circulate.

 

[ashley12]

Would take American numbers with a grain of salt over the weekend. Plus they still have a number of people doing incredibly boneheaded group activities all over the place

Louisiana pastor charged with violating ban on large gatherings holds church service for hundreds

thehill.com

A Louisiana pastor who was arrested last week for holding church services in defiance of a state ban on gatherings of more than 10 people reportedly held them again Sunday, with hundreds of parishioners turning out to his church near Baton Rouge.
An attorney for the pastor, Tony Spell, told Reuters that despite parishioners arriving in 26 buses, everyone but immediate family members maintained a distance of at least six feet.
Spell told reporters that the churchgoers “would rather come to church and worship like free people than live like prisoners in their homes” and suggested depression and anxiety experienced by people confined to their homes could be “worse than the people who have already contracted this virus and died.”

And there are other cases of this in other states as well. The Pope managed to do a service over the internet/TV, surely the other religious folk could as well.

 

[Monocle]

Anyone else heard the rumour that 20 million mobile phone plans in China have stopped being used since this pandemic?

I give it as much creditability as the Chinese Covid-19 figures that the CCP are reporting to the WHO.

 

[Luuuc]

Not to mention that 20 million is a tiny fraction of their population - less than 1.5%
I would have thought that with the effect of all this on business, an absolute shitload of business phone plans would have been canned. Then add the number of people who would naturally pass away over there in a 3 month period. 20 mil is not a large number in the context of 1.38 billion.

 

[IceNine]

I was reading the other day that once you are on a ventilator your chances are very poor

your lungs are pretty seriously degraded at this point - your body has stopped making the surfactant that keeps the lungs pliable

can't remember the exact figure for death from this point but it was bad - like 80%

edit:


<<<Of these 50 ICU patients, 41 received high-flow humidified oxygen, 33 were intubated, and 3 received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

Only 8 of the 41 patients treated with high-flow oxygen survived, and just one of the intubated patients. Overall, 11 of the 50 ICU patients survived. But those who did recover seemed to do so reasonably rapidly: 75% were discharged within 25 days.>>>


<<<From Washington state in the US, among 21 cases admitted to the ICU, 17 were admitted to ICU within 24 hours of hospital admission and 15 required intubation. Besides their respiratory distress, seven developed heart damage, four suffered kidney failure, and three liver damage. As of March 17, 11 of the patients had died, two had left the ICU, and eight still needed ventilation.>>>

I would be careful in extrapolating American data when it comes to ICU outcomes. They would intubate a 95 year old with advanced dementia who no longer recognises his family; we in Australia would not. Our practice is more similar to the United Kingdom, however even their data must be interpreted with caution as they are quickly becoming overwhelmed.

 

[Biggie]

Not great news for Boris

 

[WCErevival]

Not great news for Boris

Would be massive if the virus takes down Boris.

 

[MrWoollie]

Would be massive if the virus takes down Boris.

You sound like you want it to.

 

[Biggie]

 

[Biggie]

 

[Biggie]

 

[WCErevival]

You sound like you want it to.

Not sure how you came to that conclusion.