Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact III “WA - An Island within an Island”

[hudson2006]

This article takes a look at three options in terms of the end game for this crisis:

Australia faces a disturbing decision on how to end the epidemic

Australia appears to have brought coronavirus infections under control but is now faced with a disturbing choice on how to end the epidemic.

www.news.com.au

No easy way forward from here.

 

[tigger_ferret]

This article takes a look at three options in terms of the end game for this crisis:

Australia faces a disturbing decision on how to end the epidemic

Australia appears to have brought coronavirus infections under control but is now faced with a disturbing choice on how to end the epidemic.

www.news.com.au

No easy way forward from here.

I find this quote interesting

“We’ve lost perspective on this,” Prof Blakely said. “About 20,000 a year die from an epidemic called tobacco.”

 

[Dazzler9]

I find this quote interesting

“We’ve lost perspective on this,” Prof Blakely said. “About 20,000 a year die from an epidemic called tobacco.”

Smokers don't infect others though. They also die after about 40 years of smoking, not 2 weeks later.

 

[new breed]

This article takes a look at three options in terms of the end game for this crisis:

Australia faces a disturbing decision on how to end the epidemic

Australia appears to have brought coronavirus infections under control but is now faced with a disturbing choice on how to end the epidemic.

www.news.com.au

No easy way forward from here.

Looks like the effort of maintaining the older generation in the workforce won't happen in some of the modules in the coronavirus resolution . Unfortunate as they have invaluable experience and knowledge .
Tough choices for the Govt in the next few months and beyond .

 

[Rowan18]

I've had a fever over 38 since Sunday, so I've had the COVID-19 test yesterday. Terrible timing really as with the Easter break it will probably be Wednesday before I find out anything.

It will be interesting as I've been working from home for three weeks, and not going out except for grocery shopping. So I caught something at the shopping centre, which with all the disinfectant stuff happening is impressive. So I could be an example of community spread, or not

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

This article takes a look at three options in terms of the end game for this crisis:

Australia faces a disturbing decision on how to end the epidemic

Australia appears to have brought coronavirus infections under control but is now faced with a disturbing choice on how to end the epidemic.

www.news.com.au

No easy way forward from here.

Here immunity is the only way. I predict they will lessen restrictions to where we were around early March. No gatherings over 100, restaurants and cafes may be able to open with certain restrictions. This will be done slowly and the rate of infection monitored.

I'm pretty optimistic about a vaccine but there is still a chance that we cant develop one. If so, letting it spread at a controlled rate is the only solution.

 

[Biggie]

This article takes a look at three options in terms of the end game for this crisis:

Australia faces a disturbing decision on how to end the epidemic

Australia appears to have brought coronavirus infections under control but is now faced with a disturbing choice on how to end the epidemic.

www.news.com.au

No easy way forward from here.

Well good article - and bad at the same time

 

[tigger_ferret]

Smokers don't infect others though. They also die after about 40 years of smoking, not 2 weeks later.

Not entirely true, secondhand smoke can be damaging.

I think the point in the article is that plenty of people are still fearing zombie apocalypse type outcomes, when this simple isn’t true. 130k being likely worst case scenario and possibly 20k to develop herd immunity may not be the worst thing. Even though both 20k-130k fatalities would be a tragedy for many.

 

[Biggie]

 

[Luuuc]

This article takes a look at three options in terms of the end game for this crisis:

Australia faces a disturbing decision on how to end the epidemic

Australia appears to have brought coronavirus infections under control but is now faced with a disturbing choice on how to end the epidemic.

www.news.com.au

No easy way forward from here.

Indeed.
I think Option 3, although it sounds good, might not be practical *if* the assumptions are correct about a vaccine being 18 months away. That's a big if, because for me it's a huge driver in the decision-making.
Australia's worst day was just under 500 people being infected. If that rate continued long-term, I have no idea whether or not it would be under or over the capacity of the health care system. But if we just throw it out there that 1000 a day doesn't over-stress the system, then after 18 months that equates to just over half a million people. Which is like 2% of the population - not even remotely valuable as any type of herd immunity protection for the community.
If we don't get a significant number of people back being productive before a vaccine arrives, is there much point putting extra people in harm's way?

On the other hand, plenty of people in the know out there seem to think that the detection rate might be as low as 10% - meaning 10x more people have actually been infected than what our official numbers say. One recent article claimed 6%. If the reality is anything like that then it changes the approach completely. Then we'd be talking herd immunity as a very realistic option, and having a substantial proportion of people able to live & work normally again in the nearish future. But until there's a reliable test for the antibodies we've got no way of knowing what has actually happened.

 

[Max zero]

Doctor is violating social distancing rules by strangling that girl.

Bet he didn't think of that!

 

[Forward Press]

Comparisons with smoking are fraught with danger:

- You are far less likely to die from a single instance of breathing in cigarette smoke than from a single contact with a COVID-19 positive person
- Deaths from smoking are far less immediate
- A secondhand smoker cannot pass on the smoke again to another person
- The government can make money from it

Either way I think we can all agree unrestricted spread is disastrous no matter how you dice it and the debate is simply how we can control the spread and whether the balance should be more towards lives (no matter the cost) or the economy. Option 3 sounds ideal but it's a fine line - because of the incubation period of this disease and how long it takes to kill any mis-step in relaxing restrictions leads to catastrophic consequences a month later when the ICU suddenly gets overfilled.

 

[Forward Press]

ICU numbers stable
Deaths at 51 only
New cases under 100 nationally

We're beating this.

 

[ZergMinion]

Not entirely true, secondhand smoke can be damaging.

I think the point in the article is that plenty of people are still fearing zombie apocalypse type outcomes, when this simple isn’t true. 130k being likely worst case scenario and possibly 20k to develop herd immunity may not be the worst thing. Even though both 20k-130k fatalities would be a tragedy for many.

Once you run out of hospital capacity you can double the worst case scenario as people start dying of other things that they could have recovered from but for lack of ICU units. Everyone would know someone who died just about.

And what if the next pandemic kills 3% instead of 1%? Or worse? We should look at ways we can change our economy to not completely die during a pandemic rather than do everything possible to save the old system without changing anything. I'm not willing to die unnecessarily to save an economic system that turns the super rich into the uber rich while constantly kicking the poor and unfortunate. Are you?

 

[WCEforeverman]

Don't take this as a definitive answer, but my wife has had coffee/drinks with her mum and a sister (separately) in the front yard with about 10m of social distancing. Haven't let anyone in the house (except the plumber but that's another story).

Do you generally let you mother or sister in law in the house though?

 

[MrWoollie]

Do you generally let you mother or sister in law in the house though?

Not if I can help it. And nor would you if you met them.

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

We're up to three now.
First one caught it interstate and the other two from Yanks who from a boat who were meant to be in lock down but decided to go to the Barossa

Should be brought up on criminal charges. ******* selfish campaigners.

 

[Keys]

Should be brought up on criminal charges. ******* selfish campaigners.

Well they did die so there’s that to consider

 

[avishka5]

Well they did die so there’s that to consider

Ok jail their children then. Just because you die doesn’t mean you can’t be held accountable for your actions.

 

[avishka5]

Just lock him up and throw him in jail.

 

[bombard]

Just lock him up and throw him in jail.

View attachment 854967

to be fair, he was already punished via the AFL draft.

 

[Forward Press]

Ok jail their children then. Just because you die doesn’t mean you can’t be held accountable for your actions.

Reminds me of the time they dug up the corpse of a Pope so they could find his skeleton guilty of heresy or some s**t.

 

[FatPizza]

Reminds me of the time they dug up the corpse of a Pope so they could find his skeleton guilty of heresy or some s**t.

Then the Australia supreme court let him off on a technicality a few months later.

 

[Chris_6678]

Freo should Delist him with a big fine and then WC are aloud to pick him up for free with Freo paying his contract for 4 years.

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

Well they did die so there’s that to consider

Really? I read that as the two that died got it from two Yanks who ignored quarantine.

 

[Biggie]