Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact IV “Phasing into the New Normal”

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Seadog

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 16, 2004
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Going back to sea next week, first time the vessel I usually work on will have left a port since everything shutdown over a year ago due to covid.
Looking forward to getting on the ocean (and making a dollar).
By the time I get back in 6 weeks or so we should be in line for the vaccine as we are in the next cohort. Can't say I'm overly keen on the AZ shot, I get the feeling we'll be lining up for another variety in the not too distant future, better than nothing I guess. My wife usually has a reaction to vaccine shots so makes her susceptible to being one of the unlucky few who has a problem with the AZ shot, which is why she is less than keen to have it.

In the meantime enjoy the footy everyone, hopefully when I next get to a game (after Sat) we will be well entenched in the 8.
 

squashface

Masten and Waterman
Feb 26, 2012
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Going back to sea next week, first time the vessel I usually work on will have left a port since everything shutdown over a year ago due to covid.
Looking forward to getting on the ocean (and making a dollar).
By the time I get back in 6 weeks or so we should be in line for the vaccine as we are in the next cohort. Can't say I'm overly keen on the AZ shot, I get the feeling we'll be lining up for another variety in the not too distant future, better than nothing I guess. My wife usually has a reaction to vaccine shots so makes her susceptible to being one of the unlucky few who has a problem with the AZ shot, which is why she is less than keen to have it.

In the meantime enjoy the footy everyone, hopefully when I next get to a game (after Sat) we will be well entenched in the 8.
Strong username to post correlation
 

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Ok Boomer

Back in my day
Jul 27, 2015
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This is nonsense from Roger Cook. As if NZ is going to allow travel that Australia wouldn't, and vice versa. The opening up of either country will depend on vaccine rollouts and/or the COVID status of any third country.
 
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MrWoollie

All Australian
Jul 28, 2008
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Going back to sea next week, first time the vessel I usually work on will have left a port since everything shutdown over a year ago due to covid.
Looking forward to getting on the ocean (and making a dollar).
By the time I get back in 6 weeks or so we should be in line for the vaccine as we are in the next cohort. Can't say I'm overly keen on the AZ shot, I get the feeling we'll be lining up for another variety in the not too distant future, better than nothing I guess. My wife usually has a reaction to vaccine shots so makes her susceptible to being one of the unlucky few who has a problem with the AZ shot, which is why she is less than keen to have it.

In the meantime enjoy the footy everyone, hopefully when I next get to a game (after Sat) we will be well entenched in the 8.
We've both had the AZ first shot. I had a bit of a sore arm and wifey had very very mild flu symptoms for a couple of days.
So far 30 blood clots in 18 millions doses, which apparently is about right for other injections such as flu and yellow fever.

No matter what one we get I can see annual boosters created to counter variants into the distant future.

And yes, given a choice we would have taken the Pfizer one. But at 15 times the price, and with all the transport and storage problems with it, and it's availability only at large health centres (960 doses in one batch, have to use in 2 days etc.) I can see why the AZ is being used. At 70% vs. 90% it doesn't seem the AZ is quite as good. What I do like is the 99%+ reduction in severe cases and hospitalisation they all give. So even if we get it, it should be a lot less severe.

Enjoy your sea time. Hope you don't end up like this guy...


The sailor living alone on an abandoned cargo ship


For the past four years, Mohammed Aisha has been living on an abandoned cargo ship. In recent months, he's been completely alone.
The number of abandoned crews is on the rise, according to Lloyd's List, leaving seafarers in precarious situations.
 

Forward Press

Premium Platinum
Jul 5, 2011
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I'll still be getting AZ when it eventually rolls out to my demographic.

The more that get vaccinated, the more likely we get normality (well, whatever normality means nowdays). From what I can tell, even in the worse case scenario (brain clot excepted), it almost certainly eliminates the need for hospitalisation if you catch COVID of any variant. That's a major vaccination win if COVID becomes the new flu or common cold.
 

EagleEgo

Club Legend
Jun 3, 2008
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A good national vaccinationed program will certainly bring us back to near normal. However, there are still concerns as follows:
1. Astrazeneca vaccine has a suspected blood clots risk (some countries have already announced that there are statistical proof though not knowing the cause)
2. Why cant Australia continue to have Pfzier BioNtech supplied to the public? As far as i know Pfzier is supposed to be better but is not available to most citizen.
The govt need to solve this problem and cannot just say we know there are risk but benefit outweight the risk.
As I said, if Pfizer is lower risk and better effectiveness , the govt need to demostrate their effort of getting the best for the Australian citizens.
 

Dazzler10

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 30, 2015
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Rowan18

Premiership Player
Feb 20, 2018
3,153
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A good national vaccinationed program will certainly bring us back to near normal. However, there are still concerns as follows:
1. Astrazeneca vaccine has a suspected blood clots risk (some countries have already announced that there are statistical proof though not knowing the cause)
2. Why cant Australia continue to have Pfzier BioNtech supplied to the public? As far as i know Pfzier is supposed to be better but is not available to most citizen.
The govt need to solve this problem and cannot just say we know there are risk but benefit outweight the risk.
As I said, if Pfizer is lower risk and better effectiveness , the govt need to demostrate their effort of getting the best for the Australian citizens.
The issue is one of supply. We can't make the Pfizer one locally so need to import it. At this stage, supply is being prioritised to areas with severe outbreaks (as it should), so it will take a long time for us to get enough. Storage and transportation is also an issue as it needs to be super cold.

There seems to be a lot of conjecture about the blood clot risk with Oxford. I suspect it will keep being used for those with low risk of blood clots and other manufacturers for those who have higher risk.
 

EagleEgo

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Jun 3, 2008
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Australian government announces Pfizer as the preferred vaccine for adults under the age of 50


There is a problem here and I hope it is not developing into an age discrimination issue.

1. To my understanding Astrazenca is not recommendated to a younger age group Not because of higher risk of side effect to the younger than the older. It is because it is less benefitial for the younger as older adult over 60 are more vulnerable to Covid death due to weaker immunity.
2. For this reason, the Astrazenca should not be recommeded to Adult above 55 too as it is also risky to the older.
3. Now pfizer is recommended to Adult under 50. We all know that pfzier is more effective and less known side effect risk. Are we discriminating the old by giving them the higher risk vaccine.

I believe the government should allow people to have the choice of vaccine they want disrgard of age and under the advice of their GP.
 
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EagleEgo

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Jun 3, 2008
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The issue is one of supply. We can't make the Pfizer one locally so need to import it. At this stage, supply is being prioritised to areas with severe outbreaks (as it should), so it will take a long time for us to get enough. Storage and transportation is also an issue as it needs to be super cold.

There seems to be a lot of conjecture about the blood clot risk with Oxford. I suspect it will keep being used for those with low risk of blood clots and other manufacturers for those who have higher risk.
It is a matter between the Australian govt and US govt.
It can be made here in Australia if pfizer want us to.
The British are still our close relative than the US.
 
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Keys

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Oct 11, 2006
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MrWoollie

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Jul 28, 2008
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A good national vaccinationed program will certainly bring us back to near normal. However, there are still concerns as follows:
1. Astrazeneca vaccine has a suspected blood clots risk (some countries have already announced that there are statistical proof though not knowing the cause)
2. Why cant Australia continue to have Pfzier BioNtech supplied to the public? As far as i know Pfzier is supposed to be better but is not available to most citizen.
The govt need to solve this problem and cannot just say we know there are risk but benefit outweight the risk.
As I said, if Pfizer is lower risk and better effectiveness , the govt need to demostrate their effort of getting the best for the Australian citizens.
1. The blood clot risk is being assessed extremely conservatively. As in, anyone who has had a vaccine and develops a blood clot within 28 days is being counted. Considering how many people get blood clots on a day to day basis that is being (correctly) very careful.
2. The blood clot rate, even using the 28 day window, is much lover than the blood clot rate (DVT) on long haul flights.
3. No matter how much we don't want it to be, there is an economic consideration. $70 per jab vs. $5.
4. The Pfizer jab is difficult to transport and store. It also comes in 960 dose batches that must all be used in a day or two. This makes it useless for small health centres/country towns.
5. Do the math. By the time you ask the questions, prepare and administer the jab and clean the chair, hands etc. down, it's a 4-5min per jab situation. 12-15 per hour per administer. 8 hour day, 100-120 jabs. To use a batch in a day would need both enough patients and 8 staff continuously jabbing. Not going to happen in a small country town. And that's if by some miracle the place could actually have stored the stuff overnight.
6. Regarding better/worse. There seems to be a higher protection (90% vs. 65%) protection factor with the Pfizer. More importantly, both are 99%+ effective at reducing serious cases. So even if you do get C-19 (more likely if AZ protected), you only get a mild dose. I'll take that over the alternative.
 

Dazzler10

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 30, 2015
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Apparently the contraceptive pill carries greater risks of clotting than AZ. Yet that's ok.

I'd happily take AZ today if it was offered to me. The chance of dying from a blood clot is about the same as winning Lotto.
 

ConcreteWaters

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Aug 12, 2014
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efficacy of oxford/AZ vaccine >80% with the 12 week dosing interval as is being used now, rather than the ~70% with a shorter interval: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3777268

Blood clot issue is totally being used as an excuse by the government for their totally ballsed-up rollout.
 
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lusheslewis

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Oct 8, 2010
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This isn't being used as an excuse by the government. The problem has been a lack of supply and being too reliant on the AZ vaccine and this makes it much worse.

We now need at least 500 000 non-AZ doses a week (15 million) to give everyone 18-50 years old who wants the vaccine (~80% ?) their first dose (at least) by the end of October. We apparently get 100 000 Pfizer doses a week. It might be 12 months from now until we get enough doses.

It is apparently about a one in one million chance of dying from a blood clot to the brain caused by the vaccine (plus other potential side effects). It's very low but the risk from the virus for a healthy 30 year old in Australia is probably lower at the moment. In the UK it's obviously different.
 

EagleEgo

Club Legend
Jun 3, 2008
1,409
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Perth
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This isn't being used as an excuse by the government. The problem has been a lack of supply and being too reliant on the AZ vaccine and this makes it much worse.

We now need at least 500 000 non-AZ doses a week (15 million) to give everyone 18-50 years old who wants the vaccine (~80% ?) their first dose (at least) by the end of October. We apparently get 100 000 Pfizer doses a week. It might be 12 months from now until we get enough doses.

It is apparently about a one in one million chance of dying from a blood clot to the brain caused by the vaccine (plus other potential side effects). It's very low but the risk from the virus for a healthy 30 year old in Australia is probably lower at the moment. In the UK it's obviously different.
Then, the question is why can‘t we get Pfizer manufacture in Australia?
 

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