Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact IV “Phasing into the New Normal”

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Hap Hapablap

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Would some virus riddled freight be a possible source of infection in NZ?
That would throw a cat amongst the pigeons in regards to borders here as stopping and checking or restricting all cargo will not be practical.

The Russian vaccine is interesting, even if it is dodgy I am very confident that we will find a vaccine due to the common global interest in eliminating COVID.
exactly. people try to compare this with the aids vaccine and say oh it will take forever

people forget the amount of prejudice against aids and hiv which was huge. substantial amount of influential people with money thought it was just a homosexual disease and with the homophobia at the time indirectly accepted the virus was a reason to eliminate homosexual men. Ronald Reagan literally cast a blind eye against HIV for years. whilst he was president

covid is a completely different kettle of fish, anyone can be affected by it just by interaction whereas HIV could only be transmitted in certain methods, HIV just wasn't really taken seriously by the big world players until near the end of the 80s and the early 90s and by then so many had perished from the disease. this one is different. 160 vaccines being worked on and counting.
 

Rowan18

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Would some virus riddled freight be a possible source of infection in NZ?
That would throw a cat amongst the pigeons in regards to borders here as stopping and checking or restricting all cargo will not be practical.

The Russian vaccine is interesting, even if it is dodgy I am very confident that we will find a vaccine due to the common global interest in eliminating COVID.
Ive done a bit of reading on the russian vaccine and it looks like they are just moving into the widespread phase 3 testing, but dressing up the announcement as if it has been proven. Sure, they have said that they will start mass manufacture and administering, but that appears to be several months away. I would not be surprised if they push that back until the testing is finished.
 

Dazzler10

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Ive done a bit of reading on the russian vaccine and it looks like they are just moving into the widespread phase 3 testing, but dressing up the announcement as if it has been proven. Sure, they have said that they will start mass manufacture and administering, but that appears to be several months away. I would not be surprised if they push that back until the testing is finished.
It sounds like actual fake news.
 

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ashley12

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Sweden: 5770 deaths off a population of around 10,000,000.
NZ: 22 deaths off a population of around 5,000,000.

I struggle with people who genuinely believe the Swedish model has anything to offer. Going the Sweden route here would have meant over 12,000 deaths in Australia rather than the 322 we currently have. It's also way to early to figure where Sweden will end up given they've only recorded less than 1% if the population as having had the virus.

Sweden cheerleaders are too rooted in ideology to make sensible decisions on behalf of the rest of us.
Oh I agree that the NZ vs Sweden comparison NZ is preferred.

My comparison was more NZ vs the contaiment/suppression arguments.
 

InTheWings

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If truck drivers and politicians can skip quarantine, why can't AFL clubs have a couple more concessions - especially when they get COVID tested twice each week?

Coronavirus: WA hard border labelled ‘myth’ after revelations 6661 people allowed to skip quarantine

Josh ZimmermanThe West Australian
Wed, 12 August 2020 11:55AM


WA’s hard border has been labelled a “myth” after it was revealed more than 6600 people have been given permission to skip the usual mandatory 14-day quarantine period over the past four months.

The response to the question in Parliament indicated “many” of the exemptions were for “aircrew from domestic flights”.

Exemptions are also available to freight workers — such as truck drivers crossing State borders — and a limited set of other travellers including politicians, active military personnel, emergency services and health workers and people possessing some specialist skills not available in WA.


 

MrKK

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If truck drivers and politicians can skip quarantine, why can't AFL clubs have a couple more concessions - especially when they get COVID tested twice each week?

Coronavirus: WA hard border labelled ‘myth’ after revelations 6661 people allowed to skip quarantine

Josh ZimmermanThe West Australian
Wed, 12 August 2020 11:55AM


WA’s hard border has been labelled a “myth” after it was revealed more than 6600 people have been given permission to skip the usual mandatory 14-day quarantine period over the past four months.

The response to the question in Parliament indicated “many” of the exemptions were for “aircrew from domestic flights”.

Exemptions are also available to freight workers — such as truck drivers crossing State borders — and a limited set of other travellers including politicians, active military personnel, emergency services and health workers and people possessing some specialist skills not available in WA.


Dockers attempting to use that last exemption to recruit players.
 

larrikin

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If truck drivers and politicians can skip quarantine, why can't AFL clubs have a couple more concessions - especially when they get COVID tested twice each week?

Coronavirus: WA hard border labelled ‘myth’ after revelations 6661 people allowed to skip quarantine

Josh ZimmermanThe West Australian
Wed, 12 August 2020 11:55AM


WA’s hard border has been labelled a “myth” after it was revealed more than 6600 people have been given permission to skip the usual mandatory 14-day quarantine period over the past four months.

The response to the question in Parliament indicated “many” of the exemptions were for “aircrew from domestic flights”.

Exemptions are also available to freight workers — such as truck drivers crossing State borders — and a limited set of other travellers including politicians, active military personnel, emergency services and health workers and people possessing some specialist skills not available in WA.


None of this is news.

Truck drivers and politicians can skip quarantine as they are labelled as "essential". Agree with it or not, this has been cleat from day dot.
 

Yamumluvsbigcox

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If truck drivers and politicians can skip quarantine, why can't AFL clubs have a couple more concessions - especially when they get COVID tested twice each week?

Coronavirus: WA hard border labelled ‘myth’ after revelations 6661 people allowed to skip quarantine

Josh ZimmermanThe West Australian
Wed, 12 August 2020 11:55AM


WA’s hard border has been labelled a “myth” after it was revealed more than 6600 people have been given permission to skip the usual mandatory 14-day quarantine period over the past four months.

The response to the question in Parliament indicated “many” of the exemptions were for “aircrew from domestic flights”.

Exemptions are also available to freight workers — such as truck drivers crossing State borders — and a limited set of other travellers including politicians, active military personnel, emergency services and health workers and people possessing some specialist skills not available in WA.


Family member of mine is a high up government worker . She had to go to Melbourne a couple of months back just as they were locking down post codes and were having new out breaks .

She didn't have to quarintine even though she was in contact with people from those hot spot post codes for 2 week .

She quarintined herself when she came back until she passed a covid test for her own and her family's safety.

Just because people are exempt doesn't mean they are still not doing the right thing .
 

Rowan18

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Our unemployment rate for July is the second highest in the country, still, despite the looser restrictions. Only QLD is worse. SA was higher in June but is now lower than WA. I imagine WA would have a higher participation rate but I can't find that stat for WA.
I am finding it hard to get my head around this data too. We have the highest unemployment rate in the country, yet I am seeing a lot of activity in certain areas from people who don't appear to be suffering hardship (eg high domestic tourism in regional areas, increased property transactions etc). I suspect the unemployment is specific to the industries that suffered the most in lockdowns and is affecting associated demographics hard, while others are fine.

The trend in those stats is also all over the shop. Between June and July the following states saw a lower unemployment rate: Vic, SA, WA, TAS, ACT. The following saw more unemployemnt: NSW, QLD, NT. What is going on there? I'm assuming the data is before lockdown in VIC hit, but I have no idea why QLD (increase from 7.7 to 8.8%) or NT (5.7% to 7.5%) would be so much worse.
 

Smeg Head

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Sweden: 5770 deaths off a population of around 10,000,000.
NZ: 22 deaths off a population of around 5,000,000.

I struggle with people who genuinely believe the Swedish model has anything to offer. Going the Sweden route here would have meant over 12,000 deaths in Australia rather than the 322 we currently have. It's also way to early to figure where Sweden will end up given they've only recorded less than 1% if the population as having had the virus.

Sweden cheerleaders are too rooted in ideology to make sensible decisions on behalf of the rest of us.
New Zealand is an isolated island nation away from most over members or the human race. It makes a difference to what you can achieve.
 

Hap Hapablap

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so close to getting a zero and then bang. another 2 cases in hq

question is how are we still getting overseas travellers returning six months after the pandemic escalated
 

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Luuuc

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so close to getting a zero and then bang. another 2 cases in hq

question is how are we still getting overseas travellers returning six months after the pandemic escalated
There are still hundreds flying in every week, right? I think all cities have had to place limits on inbound passengers because they were threatening to exceed our hotel quarantine capacity.
Just goes to show how many people are overseas at any given point in time.
 

Rowan18

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It's not totally beyond reason. Contract workers sent overseas for a stint, they've done their time and just want to get home and see family again.
I'm sure if most of us think about it, we know a few people who have moved overseas for work/extended holiday etc. What about people with dual citizenship that flit between two countries (I know several from singapore, malaysia, Indonesia etc)? Australia is very multicultural with links all over the world.

Given how well WA has fared, it makes perfect sense that many people are moving back. Lost your ex-pat job overseas? Time to go back home, etc.
 

larrikin

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I'm sure if most of us think about it, we know a few people who have moved overseas for work/extended holiday etc. What about people with dual citizenship that flit between two countries (I know several from singapore, malaysia, Indonesia etc)? Australia is very multicultural with links all over the world.

Given how well WA has fared, it makes perfect sense that many people are moving back. Lost your ex-pat job overseas? Time to go back home, etc.
Yeah I know of a couple of people who are working overseas and thought they would stick it out but now want to get back to the relative safety of Aus (ironically one of them is from Vic). Having huge problems getting flights etc though.
 

Hap Hapablap

I'm off to Nepal to become a mountain goat.
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the dual citizenship thing is done by stealth. indonesia, malaysia and singapore dont allow it (usually they either have a PR or switch passports in the air.

good thing is our numbers are low. there are only a handful of planes coming in.
 

Ok Boomer

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so close to getting a zero and then bang. another 2 cases in hq

question is how are we still getting overseas travellers returning six months after the pandemic escalated
I think because of the arrival caps we will continue to see this trickle of cases until the cap is lifted or when the border restrictions are lifted.

A lot of people just can't afford to get back with the competition for seats.
 

Ok Boomer

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I am finding it hard to get my head around this data too. We have the highest unemployment rate in the country, yet I am seeing a lot of activity in certain areas from people who don't appear to be suffering hardship (eg high domestic tourism in regional areas, increased property transactions etc). I suspect the unemployment is specific to the industries that suffered the most in lockdowns and is affecting associated demographics hard, while others are fine.

The trend in those stats is also all over the shop. Between June and July the following states saw a lower unemployment rate: Vic, SA, WA, TAS, ACT. The following saw more unemployemnt: NSW, QLD, NT. What is going on there? I'm assuming the data is before lockdown in VIC hit, but I have no idea why QLD (increase from 7.7 to 8.8%) or NT (5.7% to 7.5%) would be so much worse.
I think the participation rate is the big factor. Lots more people, particularly in hospitality now have the confidence to test the waters getting back in the workforce in WA over NSW/VIC. I suspect QLD is similar. The Victorian participation rate will be terrible for months because people will be scared of being bitten a third time.
 

InTheWings

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Family member of mine is a high up government worker . She had to go to Melbourne a couple of months back just as they were locking down post codes and were having new out breaks .

She didn't have to quarintine even though she was in contact with people from those hot spot post codes for 2 week .

She quarintined herself when she came back until she passed a covid test for her own and her family's safety.

Just because people are exempt doesn't mean they are still not doing the right thing .
That is really good of her and shows exceptional character on her part. I wonder how many of her colleagues would make that sacrifice when they are not officially required. My guess is not a lot.
 

Seadog

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Looks like the Libs and Newscorp might need to find another line of attack with their "kill Dan" strategy, it seems patient zero in the quarantine outbreak was a hotel worker not a security guard.


Scomo needs to stop the backdoor blame game and get on with the job.
John Hewson sums it up very succinctly.

@JohnRHewson
End game for Morrison Government is security and welfare of the Australian people, not to seek short-term political advantage. They have clear responsibility for aged care, quarantine and the ADF. Cut the crap, accept the responsibility and do the job for which you were elected.
6:24 AM · Aug 14, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
 

ziad

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Looks like the Libs and Newscorp might need to find another line of attack with their "kill Dan" strategy, it seems patient zero in the quarantine outbreak was a hotel worker not a security guard.


Scomo needs to stop the backdoor blame game and get on with the job.
John Hewson sums it up very succinctly.

@JohnRHewson
End game for Morrison Government is security and welfare of the Australian people, not to seek short-term political advantage. They have clear responsibility for aged care, quarantine and the ADF. Cut the crap, accept the responsibility and do the job for which you were elected.
6:24 AM · Aug 14, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
dont let the facts and the constiturtion spoil a good story.
1. The biggest issue in aged care is the patients dignity. In newmark in Sydney most 'patienyts' refuesed to leave for hospital. Those able to understand the risks but acepted that life was better for them in care not in a hospital. Thanse not able to aunderstsand any longer are far better of in care. Lawyers refuse to look at or emphathise with the context. Aged care is designed to care not to quarentine. We have to live with this.
2. When the Colonies seeded to the Commonwealth defence responsibilities they retained (enshrined in the Constitution) a caveit that Defenec forces can only assist the States when specifically requested by a state. This was seen as a protective measure against military interference. Put simplu the ADF can only help if invited to do so. Dan didnt want to invite them for some reason. He did for the bush fires while NSW declined to do so for some time. Why? I suspect egos within the state organisations.

Vic is suffering for a quarantine failure - it was managed by the State. All else is dressing
 

Rowan18

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Looks like the Libs and Newscorp might need to find another line of attack with their "kill Dan" strategy, it seems patient zero in the quarantine outbreak was a hotel worker not a security guard.


Scomo needs to stop the backdoor blame game and get on with the job.
John Hewson sums it up very succinctly.

@JohnRHewson
End game for Morrison Government is security and welfare of the Australian people, not to seek short-term political advantage. They have clear responsibility for aged care, quarantine and the ADF. Cut the crap, accept the responsibility and do the job for which you were elected.
6:24 AM · Aug 14, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
Patient zero still came from a failure in hotel quarantine, which was clearly the State's responsibility. I would be ropeable if I lived in Victoria, as this is the was the most obvious source of infection and should have received a huge amount of attention to make sure it was managed properly.
 

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