Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact

[Astro7]

The reporting on the spread of Coronavirus is reaching saturated levels now in the media.

Chemists in Perth have sold out of masks (if you trust those) and referred customers onto Bunnings,
who in turn have sold out of every type of mask, painters rubber masks included. Am told this is now a
nationwide shortage. (Meanwhile we're shipping them out by the pallet load to aid China's crises - yet we import most of our masks from China?). They are available online at very inflated prices now and will probably increase in price with time and increasing wariness.

We all have our opinions on this virus, from fake news to conspiracy plots. The government and this country is bracing itself for a viral outbreak here. Already there is talk of an economic crash, our first recession in 27? years. Planes and airports are empty as tourism slumps.
Both Govnmnt and media advise not to panic...

But all this aside, if I can make light of a dire situation for a brief moment - my main concern at present is that main sporting events are predicted to be cancelled or largely unattended, primarily = AFL !!!!???
What are your thoughts on this virus.. and how this may pan out for the 2020 season.. just as we are climbing halfway through our Premiership window?
I realise it's a serious subject, but so is football (lets keep things in perspective! )....
And no, we're not panicking, just discussing...

 

[kane249]

In Italy they are playing some Serie A matches behind closed doors this weekend as a safe guard against the virus spreading, so it is a possibility in other sporting codes and leagues.

 

[Astro7]

And the Olympics in Japan are being questioned...

 

[squashface]

Two RDTs?

 

[Astro7]

Two RDTs?

I've removed the heading 'random discussion'...better now?

 

[Ok Boomer]

Empty stadiums are a possibility, but only if the virus becomes uncontrolled here.

The biggest problem for sporting events would actually be the public transport to and from events with cramped busses and trains with closed windows.

 

[Chris_6678]

My dad got back from China a day ago and he says its blown out of proportion of some the conspiracy stuff posted on social media about how the world is doomed over there.

 

[Georgie 404]

But all this aside, if I can make light of a dire situation for a brief moment -

tv rights to go up
seat prices to go down

 

[Astro7]

My dad got back from China a day ago and he says its blown out of proportion of some the conspiracy stuff posted on social media about how the world is doomed over there.

If you watched the 4 corners program on ABC the other night, it was quite chilling at times. Picking up bodies in the street, Hospitals overloaded with the incoming sick, bodies on the floor, an impossible queue of those waiting to be treated, doctors and nurses screaming they can't cope, they want to go home and see their own families...known hotspots such as infected apartment blocks were having their front entrances/doors welded shut!? The residents were locked in with the virus and whatever food supplies they had..

 

[Astro7]

Empty stadiums are a possibility, but only if the virus becomes uncontrolled here.

The biggest problem for sporting events would actually be the public transport to and from events with cramped busses and trains with closed windows.

Even if it reaches here in larger numbers, but is not out of control, fear might still take over causing empty stadiums.
How strange would it be for players, playing out a normal 'round' game in an empty stadium?
Also if it got to that stage, with few tickets sold, would they still have it at a stadium?
It raises a lot of questions...and problems.
How would it impact on the AFL and clubs financially?
What if players started refusing to be exposed in public..?
Do they cancel games, cancel the season..?
Yes it's all speculative, but it's also very real...

 

[hudson2006]

Fair amount of hysteria going on over here. Just had my son’s kindergarten pageant this morning - everyone had to wear masks, baste our hands with disinfectant & we could only go into the hall when our own kid’s performance was on. It was either that or cancel it entirely, apparently.

Japan’s case numbers are massively inflated by that cruise ship anyway. And it’s not like people here need another reason to wear face masks, they’re basically adult security blankets.

Playing AFL matches in an empty stadium with cameras wouldn’t affect my consumption of the game, but it would suck for the members.

 

[squashface]

Astro7 in this thread

 

[bombard]

I'm in one part of the world that has been directly affected by this, and my work means I have to keep pretty close to this as a topic.

Honestly, the bigger risk in Australia is the panic-buying and general degradation of society. In a worst-case scenario, I could see AFL games being played behind closed doors. However, the early science around this shows that the virus doesn't like heat. That, hopefully, gives Australia a buffer of a few months to get meaningfully ready.

Best way to think of this is like the year that swine flu hit Australia (2008ish?) -- no antibodies in the community means spread is exacerbated and the initial impact is greater in the first year than the years that follow. Every chance that COVID-19 becomes like any other flu that we vaccinate against in years to come.

 

[Astro7]

Fair amount of hysteria going on over here. Just had my son’s kindergarten pageant this morning - everyone had to wear masks, baste our hands with disinfectant & we could only go into the hall when our own kid’s performance was on. It was either that or cancel it entirely, apparently.

Japan’s case numbers are massively inflated by that cruise ship anyway. And it’s not like people here need another reason to wear face masks, they’re basically adult security blankets.

Playing AFL matches in an empty stadium with cameras wouldn’t affect my consumption of the game, but it would suck for the members.

Where are you based? Is this school reaction in Australia?
No it wont affect my watching the game, as long as it's being played, but members-there's another thing..

Astro7 in this thread

View attachment 830025

We are CALM...it's just a discussion Squash!

I'm in one part of the world that has been directly affected by this, and my work means I have to keep pretty close to this as a topic.

Honestly, the bigger risk in Australia is the panic-buying and general degradation of society. In a worst-case scenario, I could see AFL games being played behind closed doors. However, the early science around this shows that the virus doesn't like heat. That, hopefully, gives Australia a buffer of a few months to get meaningfully ready.

Best way to think of this is like the year that swine flu hit Australia (2008ish?) -- no antibodies in the community means spread is exacerbated and the initial impact is greater in the first year than the years that follow. Every chance that COVID-19 becomes like any other flu that we vaccinate against in years to come.

Well there's a positive! And yes have heard similar, that it may morph out into another flu eventually...but then someone said...along comes Covid-20? A lot of things happening in the world today, climate change, refugees, drought, food shortages, pandemics been have predicted for some time now (20-30 years), are we reaching the brink, a tipping point...(I'm being calm Squash)..
but that's another topic altogether, I'm just concerned about "me footy!"

 

[hudson2006]

Where are you based? Is this school reaction in Australia?
No it wont affect my watching the game, as long as it's being played, but members-there's another thing..

We are CALM...it's just a discussion Squash!

Well there's a positive! And yes have heard similar, that it may morph out into another flu eventually...but then someone said...along comes Covid-20? A lot of things happening in the world today, climate change, refugees, drought, food shortages, pandemics been have predicted for some time now (20-30 years), are we reaching the brink, a tipping point...(I'm being calm Squash)..
but that's another topic altogether, I'm just concerned about "me footy!"

Japan.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

I’m going to continue going to games as normal because I’m going to live forever.

 

[ziad]

TV news in Sydney reassure me we are all going to die.
Chief medical officer was - well lets say a little more positive.

 

[bombard]

I’m going to continue going to games as normal because I’m going to live forever.

Mate, if you need me to stick you in a freezer sometime, let me know. I'm sure WCE BF could crowdfund that for you.

 

[Astro7]

I’m going to continue going to games as normal because I’m going to live forever.

Now that's a positive dude-attitude! And Eagles to win the 2020 GF!

TV news in Sydney reassure me we are all going to die.
Chief medical officer was - well lets say a little more positive.

Yep, just finished watching an update outside Parliament, Slomo declaring it a national emergency and forecasting it to be a pandemic, to be on the front foot and "we will get through this!"
Supermarts have been emptied in parts of Italy, stocking up!
Curious to hear Scomo/Scummo say 'we are taking the advice of our doctors and experts very seriously"
yet he wouldn't take the advice of fire chiefs 18 months earlier, and refused meetings with them?
Nor will his govmnt heed the advice of leading world scientists on climate change?
But that's another topic...

 

[Georgie 404]

Mate, if you need me to stick you in a freezer sometime, let me know. I'm sure WCE BF could crowdfund that for you.

Is possible to do a trial run now ish??
And has the crowdfund page been set up yet?

 

[Rowan18]

The mortality rate of this virus is no higher than the winter flu that we get every year. People are freaking out without paying any attention to the risk. Experts have said that for people under 60, it will just be like any other viral infection. Those over 60 have higher risk of mortality if their bodies are frail/immune systems compromised.

Sars was the same mas-hysteria bullshit and nothing happened. Remember last month when everyone was freaking out about climate change? Next month will be some other junk in the news cycle.

 

[squashface]

The mortality rate of this virus is no higher than the winter flu that we get every year. People are freaking out without paying any attention to the risk. Experts have said that for people under 60, it will just be like any other viral infection. Those over 60 have higher risk of mortality if their bodies are frail/immune systems compromised.

Sars was the same mas-hysteria bullshit and nothing happened. Remember last month when everyone was freaking out about climate change? Next month will be some other junk in the news cycle.

I don’t think you can lump climate change in with the common cold and news cycle junk

 

[TY24]

How strange would it be for players, playing out a normal 'round' game in an empty stadium?

There's a purple club down the road who can answer that already

 

[bombard]

Sars was the same mas-hysteria bullshit and nothing happened. Remember last month when everyone was freaking out about climate change? Next month will be some other junk in the news cycle.

SARS was for real, just not in Australia. 10% mortality but it didn't spread easily.

 

[Feeling Groovy]

The mortality rate of this virus is no higher than the winter flu that we get every year. People are freaking out without paying any attention to the risk. Experts have said that for people under 60, it will just be like any other viral infection. Those over 60 have higher risk of mortality if their bodies are frail/immune systems compromised.

Sars was the same mas-hysteria bullshit and nothing happened. Remember last month when everyone was freaking out about climate change? Next month will be some other junk in the news cycle.

Whilst i agree with the sentiment, the mortality rate is much higher than the flu based on somewhat unreliable information. I think the rate is around 2% for Coronavirus but for flu it is around 0.1% from figures I just saw from the CDC. SARS was around 9.6%. The Coronavirus is still relatively low and likely to hit the elderly more (so the figures are skewered in a sense) and may not take into account all people with limited symptoms.