News Coronavirus Thread

[Horace]

Which diseases are the elderly not most vulnerable to?

That is a ridiculous comment. Clearly with age people become more prone to most but not all illnesses.

But the situation with this illness is that it is many times more lethal than the strains of flu we have witnessed in the past. No-one, repeat no-one has ever contracted covid-19, so therefore no-one has any immunity whatsoever to combat it. Hence it is far more dangerous to those parts of the community that are more vulnerable to viral infections.

Someone told you to go and educate yourself. Please do so now.

 

[Horace]

For the reasons you explained very well, is why I can't see the economy being stable or lasting unless it goes into a deeper and deeper recession if this does indeed go on for the next 4-6 months with the current measures in place, worse if it goes longer.

It'll be very hard to economically manage this without a domino effect on businesses and industries.

The word Depression has already been mentioned. Lets all hope that doesn't happen.

 

[Moti]

The word Depression has already been mentioned. Lets all hope that doesn't happen.

Heard a report today that said we might bet to a 7-7.5% unemployment rate. It all depends how long it lasts. The whole point of excessive isolation is to starve the virus, so it should not be a long term thing. Less intense isolation will result in more cases but hopefully at a manageable rate.

 

[7577969923]

For the reasons you explained very well, is why I can't see the economy being stable or lasting unless it goes into a deeper and deeper recession if this does indeed go on for the next 4-6 months with the current measures in place, worse if it goes longer.

It'll be very hard to economically manage this without a domino effect on businesses and industries.

I have a lot of contacts in China. Two months ago things were completely out of control and they shut the country and economy down in a much harder manner than the proposals our Government is proposing. They are already coming out of it and green shoots are coming through with consumer spending and online retail. It definitely differs by sector, and tourism and hospo will be particularly hard hit, nut recovery will come.

I think the Government is right to warn us now of the potential time frame with a worst-case mentality. If we keep new cases low then we can bounce back much sooner.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

I have a lot of contacts in China. Two months ago things were completely out of control and they shut the country and economy down in a much harder manner than the proposals our Government is proposing. They are already coming out of it and green shoots are coming through with consumer spending and online retail. It definitely differs by sector, and tourism and hospo will be particularly hard hit, nut recovery will come.

I think the Government is right to warn us now of the potential time frame with a worst-case mentality. If we keep new cases low then we can bounce back much sooner.

This is why I was keen on the lockdown rumours, as it would be short term and could stop a lot of it in its tracks.

Interesting that Murphy said that a full lockdown wouldn’t be useful in our situation, but I’m not sure why that is the case.

 

[Pykie]

So, we’ve only got around 250 ventilators currently in Victoria?

 

[Pykie]

This is why I was keen on the lockdown rumours, as it would be short term and could stop a lot of it in its tracks.

Interesting that Murphy said that a full lockdown wouldn’t be useful in our situation, but I’m not sure why that is the case.

Because the Chinese not only locked down the population, but went door to door testing temperatures and forcibly removed those sick to segregated camps.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

nut recovery will come.

I should hope so.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Because the Chinese not only locked down the population, but went door to door testing temperatures and forcibly removed those sick to segregated camps.

Ok, maybe a bit too extreme.

 

[7577969923]

Without a point of reference (i.e. how many people died from the flu during the same period last year) then this number is meaningless.



Which diseases are the elderly not most vulnerable to?



I'm suggesting that people should not panic.

People panic when they don't believe what they are being told by their leaders. People in the USA have been panicking because they don't believe a word Trump has told them.

About 10k to 15k annually die of the flu in Italy. Now think that Covid 19 is at least equally as infectious as the flu and the mortality rate is conservatively 10 times higher. Do you not get how frightening that is? Italy is currently suffering over 350 deaths per day

This is why I was keen on the lockdown rumours, as it would be short term and could stop a lot of it in its tracks.

Interesting that Murphy said that a full lockdown wouldn’t be useful in our situation, but I’m not sure why that is the case.

Singapore hasn't implemented a lockdown or shut schools and they have kept it in check.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

People panic when they don't believe what they are being told by their leaders. People in the USA have been panicking because they don't believe a word Trump has told them.

About 10k to 15k annually die of the flu in Italy. Now think that Covid 19 is at least equally as infectious as the flu and the mortality rate is conservatively 10 times higher. Do you not get how frightening that is? Italy is currently suffering over 350 deaths per day

Singapore hasn't implemented a lockdown or shut schools and they have kept it in check.

I was thinking about Singapore, but I appreciate they have different circumstances to us.

 

[7577969923]

I should hope so.

You want your nuts to get better.

 

[7577969923]

Ok, maybe a bit too extreme.

Rumour has that the Noth Korean approach is 100% effective. Dead men don't sneeze!

 

[danj]

As a benchmark for when it's ok to panic, this movie should be compulsory viewing:

 

[giantroo]

The AFL hold a press conference at 7.45pm in regards to round one @AFLcomau

 

[koshari]

The word Depression has already been mentioned. Lets all hope that doesn't happen.

In the great depression food shortages contributed to the misery of the people that endured it, there is no practical reason for food shortages this time around. sure there is panic buying of meats and pasta etc but i went into an independent IGA tonight to get a tea strainer of all things and there was a massive choice of foods from tinned soups ( even had a pallet near full in front of the register aisles) to heaps of vegetables and other lines. even their meat coolers whilst quite depleted had a reasonable choice of cuts to make a limitless amount of meals if you can actually read a recipe sheet. this was a bit of a difference from aldi the other day where a lot of the lines were completely depleted.

i would guess the difference between the stores possibly has to do with their distribution methods or maybe a bit of the panic buying has eased up?

 

[giantroo]

 

[Billy Not Really]

Channel 7 was still running ads for the Carlton V Richmond game just minutes ago, Richmond has released their team for the game and I think a couple other clubs have also.

I think Round 1 is going ahead.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Horace]

For those who believe that covid-19 does not present a risk to the older members of our society, take a look at this.

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old​	​	0.2%​
0-9 years old	​	no fatalities​

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.

In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.
Sex ratio
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by SEX:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on sex. When reading these numbers, it must be taken into account that smoking in China is much more prevalent among males. Smoking increases the risks of respiratory complications.

SEX​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
Male​	4.7%​	2.8%​
Female​	2.8%​	1.7%​

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by sex.

Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities)
Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
Cardiovascular disease​	13.2%​	10.5%​
Diabetes​	9.2%​	7.3%​
Chronic respiratory disease​	8.0%​	6.3%​
Hypertension​	8.4%​	6.0%​
Cancer​	7.6%​	5.6%​
no pre-existing conditions​	​	0.9%​

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.

Novel Coronavirus Worldometer Sections:

• Coronavirus Update
• Case statistics and graphs
• Death statistics and graphs
• Mortality Rate
• Transmission Rate
• Incubation Period
• Age, Sex, Existing Condition
• Symptoms
• Countries with cases: basic list - detailed list

Sources

1. The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) - China CCDC, February 17 2020
2. Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) [Pdf] - World Health Organization, Feb. 28, 2020

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

 

[Pykie]

 

[Pykie]

Fox Sports have made around 20 journo’s redundant, including Daniel Garb.

 

[Snake_Baker]

...........and there's ANOTHER take home point:

 

[Snake_Baker]

Fox Sports have made around 20 journo’s redundant, including Daniel Garner.

The irony.

 

[Groin guru]

Because the Chinese not only locked down the population, but went door to door testing temperatures and forcibly removed those sick to segregated camps.

Exactly. Referencing China isn't really suitable. Their authoritarian government did things they wouldn't dream of in Australia. I mean they could but the outrage would be through the roof.

Apartment buildings had entry doors welded shut and/or piles of dirt dropped in front. There were videos of people passing dried pasta through the holes of these doors just so people inside had food.



Police nailing doors shut when people returned from Wuhan





Removing people by force



I can't find it but in January there was a video of Wuhan police knocking on a man's apartment door and asking a man to remove a post on social media showing a video of people being locked inside. He was told it creates too much panic and then was asked to make another post saying it was fake and that President Xi Jinping has everything under control. They didn't leave until he did it.