News Coronavirus Thread

[Tas]

Numbers just do not add up:- Beijing have 21+ million people only 8 deaths.....
And Shanghai have 24.28 million , 5 deaths
......
the numbers are false or theyre damning.View attachment 850104View attachment 850105

If they prevented anyone infected travelling there then it is possible. I wouldn't trust any numbers coming out of China though.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Tassie data still to come in so I have plugged in an estimate for them.

View attachment 850109

I would suggest that the data will be a little up and down until the end of the week, due to returning travellers, finding those cruise ship clusters and the new stricter measures introduced last week. Honestly, without the cruise ship stuff up, we would be tracking even better than we are.

 

[Tas]

Block all thought out of you mind and meditate on this for a minute.

lol that is like saying a car on a highway has to get off one of the exits, you just don't know which one. That isn't speculation. Speculation requires a conclusion or an opinion. I don't have either, I am just identifying the exits on the highway, i don't know which one the virus got off on. Which one it took is important though.

 

[Snake_Baker]

lol that is like saying a car on a highway has to get off one of the exits, you just don't know which one. That isn't speculation. Speculation requires a conclusion or an opinion. I don't have either, I am just identifying the exits on the highway, i don't know which one the virus got off on. Which one it took is important though.

Park your pride Tas. You're better than this.

 

[The Warlord]

s**t gunna get real in the US very fast.

 

[7577969923]

In

Considering the lack of any reasonable explanation, there isn't



The incompetence of an authoritative regime that instituted a lock down that completely shut down 11 million people?

Do you have reason to believe that Chinese politicians are any more or less competent than Australian politicians when it comes to virology and immunology?

Tas, you are falling for the common trap of giving politicians far too much credit. These people are not the cream of intelligentsia.

Numbers just do not add up:- Beijing have 21+ million people only 8 deaths.....
And Shanghai have 24.28 million , 5 deaths
......
the numbers are false or theyre damning.View attachment 850104View attachment 850105

I would say a couple of things.

After letting it get out of hand because they had badly mismanaged the early outbreak, China basically shut the country down extremely hard and extremely fast. They were on the Chinese New Year break so all the businesses were closed and nothing was allowed to reopen, people were strictly confined to their neighbourhoods, and in Wuhan, they were locked in their apartments. Far more extreme than anything we have done in Australia so far. The CCP mobilise 90 million officials, down to every apartment building, to enforce the rules.

I have contacts in China, mostly in Shanghai, and none of them knows anyone who was infected. Their reports are consistent with the narrative that has come out of China. Do they believe the official number? No. Do they believe the high-level story about the trajectory of the virus and the improvement over the last six weeks? Yes.

It is very probable that the numbers are manipulated but by nowhere near the extent to which some people are suggesting. They are probably about as accurate as the US figures.

I am pretty certain there is nothing to be gained by major superpowers getting into a pissing contest about who is to blame for this thing though.

 

[MagicDaw]

According to WHO, 405k died in 2018, 67% are children under 5 years old. That is from 228 million cases, 93% of cases are in Africa. There has been a partial Malaria vaccine since 2015, Mosquirix, which was backed by Bill Gates for it's development but it is not foolproof and only lasts about 5 years. It will at best mitigate some of the deaths. WHO has received grants to pilot a program in Africa starting last year but it will probably take some time to have a significant impact.

The problem is third world countries. USA got rid of malaria by carpet bombing the southern states in DDT every year for 5 years. It got rid of the mosquitos but got rid of a lot of other things as well.

Poverty is the major problem, living close to swamps another.. If we prevented all the preventable deaths in Africa, it would probably lead to starvation, more conflict. The population is increasing too fast and the only social security you have as an old person in a poor country is to mass produce children to look after you when get old and to compensate for deaths you have even more children because you know not all of them are going to make it. It is a life Ponzi scheme, each generation is banking on a future generation, all Ponzi schemes eventually collapse.

Numbers are different depending who does the reporting. WHO reports around 400k and others 650k. All are estimates.
The vaccine you are talking about is an attenuated vaccine where you get the infectious stage of the disease and treat it with something like heat or radiation to inactivate it. This then gets injected into people. This is an expensive process and needs highly skilled people. We (scientists) have been trying for years to get a better vaccine (there are some promising results)
Also it does only last for about a year.
There are also 4 types of human malaria and only 1 has such a vaccine (it is against most predominant one in Africa)
You are right between 60 and 70 % of infections are kids under 5.
The ponzi scheme however is unlikely.
Research has shown that if Malaria gets eradicated in Africa, families will become smaller and therefore more affluent (will have a look if I can dig up the research paper).
One of the reasons they have lots of kids is the high death rate of kids.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Meanwhile...........where it actually matters..............

 

[7577969923]

I would suggest that the data will be a little up and down until the end of the week, due to returning travellers, finding those cruise ship clusters and the new stricter measures introduced last week. Honestly, without the cruise ship stuff up, we would be tracking even better than we are.

Agree. Important to remember that these are very simple high-level post-fact numbers. They are very much like a bikini. What they reveal is interesting but nowhere near as interesting as what you can't see.

 

[7577969923]

Numbers are different depending who does the reporting. WHO reports around 400k and others 650k. All are estimates.
The vaccine you are talking about is an attenuated vaccine where you get the infectious stage of the disease and treat it with something like heat or radiation to inactivate it. This then gets injected into people. This is an expensive process and needs highly skilled people. We (scientists) have been trying for years to get a better vaccine (there are some promising results)
Also it does only last for about a year.
There are also 4 types of human malaria and only 1 has such a vaccine (it is against most predominant one in Africa)
You are right between 60 and 70 % of infections are kids under 5.
The ponzi scheme however is unlikely.
Research has shown that if Malaria gets eradicated in Africa, families will become smaller and therefore more affluent (will have a look if I can dig up the research paper).
One of the reasons they have lots of kids is the high death rate of kids.

Agree with the point on family size. Empower women and eliminate preventable deaths from diseases like malaria and African families get a lot smaller and more affluent.

 

[Tas]

Numbers are different depending who does the reporting. WHO reports around 400k and others 650k. All are estimates.
The vaccine you are talking about is an attenuated vaccine where you get the infectious stage of the disease and treat it with something like heat or radiation to inactivate it. This then gets injected into people. This is an expensive process and needs highly skilled people. We (scientists) have been trying for years to get a better vaccine (there are some promising results)
Also it does only last for about a year.
There are also 4 types of human malaria and only 1 has such a vaccine (it is against most predominant one in Africa)
You are right between 60 and 70 % of infections are kids under 5.
The ponzi scheme however is unlikely.
Research has shown that if Malaria gets eradicated in Africa, families will become smaller and therefore more affluent (will have a look if I can dig up the research paper).
One of the reasons they have lots of kids is the high death rate of kids.

My ponzi scheme comment was in relation to poverty, we know that the more affluent any population becomes, the less it reproduces. There are some exceptions, like where religions tell people to reproduce. My father had 12 siblings, it is not just a lack of television, kids are the workforce for poor rural families.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Agree. Important to remember that these are very simple high-level post-fact numbers. They are very much like a bikini. What they reveal is interesting but nowhere near as interesting as what you can't see.

I am a huge fan of bikini analogies.

 

[Tas]

In




I would say a couple of things.

After letting it get out of hand because they had badly mismanaged the early outbreak, China basically shut the country down extremely hard and extremely fast. They were on the Chinese New Year break so all the businesses were closed and nothing was allowed to reopen, people were strictly confined to their neighbourhoods, and in Wuhan, they were locked in their apartments. Far more extreme than anything we have done in Australia so far. The CCP mobilise 90 million officials, down to every apartment building, to enforce the rules.

I have contacts in China, mostly in Shanghai, and none of them knows anyone who was infected. Their reports are consistent with the narrative that has come out of China. Do they believe the official number? No. Do they believe the high-level story about the trajectory of the virus and the improvement over the last six weeks? Yes.

It is very probable that the numbers are manipulated but by nowhere near the extent to which some people are suggesting. They are probably about as accurate as the US figures.

I am pretty certain there is nothing to be gained by major superpowers getting into a pissing contest about who is to blame for this thing though.

Italy has only counted those that enter the hospital, they haven't yet accounted for the numbers who died outside of the hospitals, or spread it to others. Without the testing equipment there are going to be a lot of unreliable data at the best of times. We will only know the true numbers when the dust settles.

However, (this is a speculation) China is being deliberately misleading because they are shipping tens of thousands of cremated remains to Wuhan while saying only some three odd thousand in all of China have died. It seems to be beyond bookkeeping errors, poor tracking etc, as they are trying to open up the region, they would have removed the dead by now and be reasonably confident the virus is dead there if they are trying to open it up.

 

[Horace]

You can literally swing the data from one extreme to the other to proof your point. That's the beauty of predictions. Even if you get it wrong, you won't get blamed and will just be forgotten, but if you get it right, you are the smartest person alive.

I have a mathematics/statistics background, but I always temper this with a favourite saying of my late father. "Figures don't lie but liars can figure".

 

[7577969923]

Italy has only counted those that enter the hospital, they haven't yet accounted for the numbers who died outside of the hospitals, or spread it to others. Without the testing equipment there are going to be a lot of unreliable data at the best of times. We will only know the true numbers when the dust settles.

However, (this is a speculation) China is being deliberately misleading because they are shipping tens of thousands of cremated remains to Wuhan while saying only some three odd thousand in all of China have died. It seems to be beyond bookkeeping errors, poor tracking etc, as they are trying to open up the region, they would have removed the dead by now and be reasonably confident the virus is dead there if they are trying to open it up.

I would want to see a reliable source for that story. The only one I have seen run it so far is the Daily Mail.

It wouldn't surprise me if there was a significant spike in deaths attributed to the complications of Covid19, like pneumonia or heart attack, over February. What I have learnt through this process is that death rates for any given outbreak are determined post-fact by statistical analysis and not by attribution on death certificates.

 

[Horace]

Meanwhile...........where it actually matters..............

View attachment 850119

That, surely. is good news. The trick now is how to keep that number falling. Very smart observation that from me, I think.

But not smart I have to say is I have no idea what that trick might be.

 

[Horizons_00]

I think they may have just went straight to stage 4 lockdown.

I still say we should have gone into lockdown for 2 weeks immediately. We already could see how dangerous it was around the world

We’re just spreading it at the moment. The longer we leave it, the more are infected imo.... and we could have footy back in 2020

 

[Mav]

What is this incoherent bullshit about? I don't give a fu** if they disembark in a port next to my house.

You have a problem comprehending? You do have a problem with them disembarking near your home because you stated that you were worried about hotels overflowing.

oh and Snake_Baker you liking these posts just show I’m right. You’re way to vain to put anyone on ignore.

 

[Mav]

Meanwhile...........where it actually matters..............

View attachment 850119

So, the politicians listening to the experts was a good thing??

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

I still say we should have gone into lockdown for 2 weeks immediately. We already could see how dangerous it was around the world

We’re just spreading it at the moment. The longer we leave it, the more are infected imo.... and we could have footy back in 2020

Tbh, we are not exactly far off what is considered a lockdown. I can get fined $11,000 if I am not getting essentials, or going to work or a doctor, and I can’t celebrate my mother’s own birthday due to the 2 person rule. The only thing we are lacking is martial law and a few additional restrictions.

 

[Tas]

You have a problem comprehending? You do have a problem with them disembarking near your home because you stated that you were worried about hotels overflowing.

oh and Snake_Baker you liking these posts just show I’m right. You’re way to vain to put anyone on ignore.

I said it would make sense to utilise hotels where there aren't major international airports, because of the 7,000 people per day currently flying in, the vast majority land in Sydney then Melbourne then stuff all elsewhere.

You then rambled some stupid bullshit, is that good enough comprehension?

I am happy for them all to come to Melbourne so they don't have to deal with campaigners in SA.

 

[Tas]

Meanwhile...........where it actually matters..............

View attachment 850119

Given the vast majority of people with the virus are travellers, I wonder if there is a graph or heat map that just indicates local transmission. If we can get to zero local transmission and everyone infected/coming into the country is quarantined then we would be able to resume normal operation.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Given the vast majority of people with the virus are travellers, I wonder if there is a graph or heat map that just indicates local transmission. If we can get to zero local transmission and everyone infected/coming into the country is quarantined then we would be able to resume normal operation.

The modelling is getting released at the end of the week, so hopefully we can get access to all the data.

 

[Mav]

I said it would make sense to utilise hotels where there aren't major international airports, because of the 7,000 people per day currently flying in, the vast majority land in Sydney then Melbourne then stuff all elsewhere.

You then rambled some stupid bullshit, is that good enough comprehension?

I am happy for them all to come to Melbourne so they don't have to deal with campaigners in SA.

“Everyone on a ******* cruise ship should be forced to disembark...so we don’t overload hotels in Sydney and Melbourne”

I showed you this wasn’t going to happen. I started off doing it with a bit of fun but you turned into a right knob. Just say, “s**t have we got that many hotel rooms in Melbourne. I didn’t realize, my bad”

 

[Mav]

I said it would make sense to utilise hotels where there aren't major international airports, because of the 7,000 people per day currently flying in, the vast majority land in Sydney then Melbourne then stuff all elsewhere.

You then rambled some stupid bullshit, is that good enough comprehension?

I am happy for them all to come to Melbourne so they don't have to deal with campaigners in SA.

Oh, and I pointed out that SA, relatively, has more cases than Vic but you completely missed that point.
You’re like Tef, you don’t like it if some question your ramblings.