News Coronavirus Thread

[7577969923]

We are using a modelling strategy called Nowcasting


Full thread:

How do they model/forecast for unknown infections?

 

[7577969923]

Not quite.

It has already been established that the new coding system introduced by the CDC will lead to people being recorded as dying from covid, when they have in fact died due to other causes.

They say it themselves:

"... the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not... COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death."

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/...w-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

So if covid is 'assumed' to have 'contributed' to a death, it is now to be recorded as a covid death, according to the CDC.

It has already been established that 99% of people dying after covid diagnosis were already suffering from other major illness.

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

Italy's median age of recorded death is in the high 70s, same as Australia and the rest of the world.

Old people die. This is reality. And now those old people who die are being classed as covid deaths due to the CDC's classification system.

Connect those dots and what do you see? Deaths which would have occurred anyway are now being recorded as due to covid.

The problem is, people have been scared shitless by government and news and 24/7 coverage and emotive reports and a social media frenzy.

To admit that he has been fooled, a man has to have a certain degree of humility, which most people are in dire lack of.

So instead they will attack me or my motives, they will let emotion rule over reason, like children being told 'no'.

Yet the experts believe that of the USA death figures are wrong it is on the downside.

Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll (Published 2020)

Inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a patchwork of decision making have led to an undercounting of people with the coronavirus who have died, health experts say.

www.nytimes.com

People attack you because you never answer any straightforward questions. You ignore the fact that if the disease is allowed to spread unchecked it results in a massive surge in hospitalisations and a subsequent surge in deaths. This is what has happened in every place in the world that let the virus get out of control.

 

[giantroo]

Slides from the presentation:

 

[giantroo]

 

[krakouers]

PM: “There are no plans to change the baseline restrictions in place right now for at least four weeks”

So 28th of May is just 6 Weeks away?

Its not just me still thinking the NRL is dreaming?

Edit: 28th of May

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

So 31st of May is just over 6 Weeks away?

Its not just me still thinking the NRL is dreaming?

The July/August timeframe is looking good for the AFL.

 

[krakouers]

The July/August timeframe is looking good for the AFL.

Exactly, makes the NRL look too desperate

 

[7577969923]

So 28th of May is just 6 Weeks away?

Its not just me still thinking the NRL is dreaming?

Edit: 28th of May

Only 2 new confirmed cases in Victoria today and low numbers in NSW & QLD. If that were to drop to zero and stay there for a week there will be massive public pressure.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Only 2 new confirmed cases in Victoria today and low numbers in NSW & QLD. If that were to drop to zero and stay there for a week there will be massive public pressure.

Two weeks of zero and then we can celebrate, in moderation.

 

[DaveyBoy123]

Does anyone read this type of stuff and immediately think of implications for sport? Are we campaigners?

As long as it keeps the ever-apologizing, always wrongdoing Merseyside cretins social distancing from the EPL title!

 

[giantroo]

 

[GarnerSmash]

Not quite.

It has already been established that the new coding system introduced by the CDC will lead to people being recorded as dying from covid, when they have in fact died due to other causes.

They say it themselves:

"... the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not... COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death."

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/...w-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

So if covid is 'assumed' to have 'contributed' to a death, it is now to be recorded as a covid death, according to the CDC.

And the CDC only counts a COVID-19 death when confirmed by laboratory test. What you have chosen to highlight is two lines form separate sections of a document outlining the protocol to be used when recording a COVID-19 death. The assumption is that if it looks like COVID-19 and smells like COVID-19, but hasn't yet been tested, write it up as such. Then get a test.

However, as the CDC has clearly stated, it is likely that they are in fact understating the death toll. Unless they are lying because......I dunno, gay frogs?

It has already been established that 99% of people dying after covid diagnosis were already suffering from other major illness.


More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

Italy's median age of recorded death is in the high 70s, same as Australia and the rest of the world.

Old people die. This is reality. And now those old people who die are being classed as covid deaths due to the CDC's classification system.

Connect those dots and what do you see? Deaths which would have occurred anyway are now being recorded as due to covid.

The problem is, people have been scared shitless by government and news and 24/7 coverage and emotive reports and a social media frenzy.

To admit that he has been fooled, a man has to have a certain degree of humility, which most people are in dire lack of.

So instead they will attack me or my motives, they will let emotion rule over reason, like children being told 'no'.

Yes, like most coronavirsues and pneumonia, for most people it is the underlying illness that prevents the body from fighting off this new coronavirus, however this is not the full story. The major difference is the way in which this virus attacks and destroys the lung tissue during its reproduction. The fluid leftover during this tissue destruction then builds up, oxygen levels decrease, already compromised systems break down, other organs begin to suffer, then they shut down, then death. This coronavirus is far more dangerous to those with underlying issues than previous influenza viruses that we see floating around. As alluded to a few lines ago It is also more dangerous to those without pre-existing issues as there are numerous cases of healthy adults dying as well as those who get hit with a large viral load, such as medical workers at the front line.

So, your assumption that the States are overestimating numbers is wrong (or the CDC is lying for some reason, which I hope you will elaborate upon) and your argument that old people die anyway is based on a lazy understanding of the nature of this virus compared to influenza-A and influenza-B, as well as being kinda sociopathic. What else do you have that isn't some kind of right-wing woke, ill-informed semi-truth?

 

[sbdan]

So 28th of May is just 6 Weeks away?

Its not just me still thinking the NRL is dreaming?

Edit: 28th of May

28 May might be right on target. That will be 2 weeks after the state and fed governments review.

If the new cases keep dropping like they are, then society will have to open up. It's not just for economic reasons, people will start rebelling if they try to enforce a police state for more than a couple months.

You see the PM's latest statement - he is talking about how health services need to develop to cope when we start up again. To deal with patients and identify outbreaks. Controlled, herd immunity is the way forward, not praying on a vaccine that may or may not come in god knows how long.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

28 May might be right on target. That will be 2 weeks after the state and fed governments review.

If the new cases keep dropping like they are, then society will have to open up. It's not just for economic reasons, people will start rebelling if they try to enforce a police state for more than a couple months.

You see the PM's latest statement - he is talking about how health services need to develop to cope when we start up again. To deal with patients and identify outbreaks. Controlled, herd immunity is the way forward, not praying on a vaccine that may or may not come in god knows how long.

You listen to Murphy and co, we aren’t pursuing a herd immunity strategy any time soon.

 

[GarnerSmash]

28 May might be right on target. That will be 2 weeks after the state and fed governments review.

If the new cases keep dropping like they are, then society will have to open up. It's not just for economic reasons, people will start rebelling if they try to enforce a police state for more than a couple months.

You see the PM's latest statement - he is talking about how health services need to develop to cope when we start up again. To deal with patients and identify outbreaks. Controlled, herd immunity is the way forward, not praying on a vaccine that may or may not come in god knows how long.

How can you control a Herd Immunity approach? We could go from having this thing almost nipped in the bud to further lockdowns, thousands of deaths, including our healthcare workers, and a crippled health system within two months. How can a government remove restrictions and then prevent this from happening?

 

[krakouers]

28 May might be right on target. That will be 2 weeks after the state and fed governments review.

If the new cases keep dropping like they are, then society will have to open up. It's not just for economic reasons, people will start rebelling if they try to enforce a police state for more than a couple months.

You see the PM's latest statement - he is talking about how health services need to develop to cope when we start up again. To deal with patients and identify outbreaks. Controlled, herd immunity is the way forward, not praying on a vaccine that may or may not come in god knows how long.

2 Weeks straight after restrictions open up may be too short and too risky to have a competition sprung up

 

[shintemaster]

2 Weeks straight after restrictions open up may be too short and too risky to have a competition sprung up

I think minimum 2 weeks given we are not testing significantly amongst asymptomatic. My personal view without too much study is 2 weeks of zero + 2 weeks of margin then start easing. It is in my view going to be much harder to revert back to harsher restrictions than simply hold on for another couple of weeks longer as we are.

 

[7577969923]

You listen to Murphy and co, we aren’t pursuing a herd immunity strategy any time soon.

If eradication is within striking distance that has to be the preferred option. If our data is accurate it has to be a possibility.

It would take years to build herd immunity in a controlled manner.

 

[7577969923]

I think minimum 2 weeks given we are not testing significantly amongst asymptomatic. My personal view without too much study is 2 weeks of zero + 2 weeks of margin then start easing. It is in my view going to be much harder to revert back to harsher restrictions than simply hold on for another couple of weeks longer as we are.

I don't think the masses will tolerate 4 weeks of zero new cases under lockdown. Go as hard and wide as possible on testing.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

I don't think the masses will tolerate 4 weeks of zero new cases under lockdown. Go as hard and wide as possible on testing.

They’ll accept two weeks as that has been the main parameter, so a few days beyond that and we can start rolling back after that.

 

[shintemaster]

I don't think the masses will tolerate 4 weeks of zero new cases under lockdown. Go as hard and wide as possible on testing.

Meh. I'm not basing my opinion on what people like - just what I think would be the best long term economic, social and health position to start from. I think it would massively traumatic to the community and economy if we released restrictions and ended up back where we were a month ago.

 

[sbdan]

You listen to Murphy and co, we aren’t pursuing a herd immunity strategy any time soon.

I doubt they will call it herd immunity, but it will be a similar thing. Health services prepared, maybe high risk people isolated, the borders will still be closed, but society operating within.

It feels like what the recent government statements are hinting.

 

[7577969923]

They’ll accept two weeks as that has been the main parameter, so a few days beyond that and we can start rolling back after that.

I think we need a strategic reserve of tests. If we get to 7 days with the standard amount of tests (circa 10k per day) roll out an extra 100k the following week purely for random community testing. If we are still at zero then roll back the restrictions.

It is hard to believe that significant voices in the USA are pushing to unwind restrictions when they are still recording circa 20% positive tests.

 

[Flawed Genius]

On a side note, anyone with stats background can explain to me what R0 is?

No stats background but I believe it's the amount of people one person suffering from coronavirus can infect

Ie a r0 of 5.7 as mooted in USA suggests one individual can infect up to almost 6 people. Those 6 people can infect six each, and so on so forth

1 > 6 > 36 > 216 > 1296 > 7776 etc

 

[krakouers]

I think minimum 2 weeks given we are not testing significantly amongst asymptomatic. My personal view without too much study is 2 weeks of zero + 2 weeks of margin then start easing. It is in my view going to be much harder to revert back to harsher restrictions than simply hold on for another couple of weeks longer as we are.

Just keep thinking:

PM has basically said we have four weeks of measures in place, that brings us to 14th may (rough date), with a date like that that means low/nil cases until then. At least with a date set with a projection, most people will accept it with lower cases.
Week after, figure they start opening up a handful of things, like allow increase in gatherings to 10 people, How can a club train etc with those in place? Still having lock-down in states outside of NSW/QLD as they don't want cross border infections, I don't see that lifting until much later
Most of the clubs have had to terminate staff, hereby reducing the turnaround to return to get a club up and conduct running, training, structures etc
I see a month (just roughly) after we go back to 50 people gathering, assuming we follow similar restrictions in how we closed down as we want to reduce the flare up in cases

If its just me? Thats ok