Discussion Coronavirus

[Coconut_twirl]

You obviously think the government are out of Harry Potter and everything will go back to normal with a wand and a spell. Yeah, the govt has budgeted for 6 million out of work, that's at least 40%. If you think that even half of those will get back to work in a hurry, that'd be like believing in Santa.

I can’t believe there are people out there that think social distancing restrictions would be lifted this year. Unless there is a viable vaccine or maybe even some existing fda approved drugs that can help, the virus won’t go away. There is no herd immunity.
Thats why NZ one month lockdown wont stop the Virus. Yes, it will flatten the curve and it will save lives, but it will not eradicate the virus.

 

[BrutThough]

You would think other industries like the cleaning industry might grow rapidly. And there may be a spike in local manufacturing.

Local manufacturing could be a big growth area post this, particularly medical supplies and equipment.

I can also see this encouraging people to seek out small local businesses over the big international brands which would be great to

 

[MUFKilda]

The situation continues to worsen here, sadly. UK deaths yesterday at 709, with a total of 4313.

 

[bergholt]

But at the moment we're isolating everyone. I don't believe that Singapore & Japan have shut down to our extent. Sweden have done nothing at all.

My point is that we are making decisions based on flawed projections. Unfortunately, that's largely due to Chinese secrecy. I really don't think we're going to run out of ICU beds. It is the fear of not having enough ICU beds that has us in lockdown.

I don't really get what China has to do with it, they're just one data point. Wouldn't we be looking at Italy, Spain, France, UK, US, etc? Much more similar countries to Australia, all of which have runaway death tolls?

I don't know exactly what Singapore, Japan, Sweden have done. But just at a glance, Sweden have slightly more cases than us but 10 times as many deaths, so I'm not sure whether or not that's a model we should be following.

 

[plugger66]

The situation continues to worsen here, sadly. UK deaths yesterday at 709, with a total of 4313.

That’s not good at all. Do they give a breakdown of ages?

 

[gringo2011]

New Zealand modelling gives insight into Australian virus numbers

Between 12,600 and 33,600 deaths are anticipated in New Zealand, which has a population five times lower than...

www.canberratimes.com.au

 

[Verdun]

https://www.patreon.com/posts/is-liberal-mp-35591510?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=postshare&fbclid=IwAR0Bys7hkQoafD8uNsVQmn7ihZOjQCGW0nk3LugdwgJrRCCaDMH47YON4pk

Have read this in several places (not the mainstream media), it will be denied and covered up

 

[gringo2011]

Have read this in several places (not the mainstream media), it will be denied and covered up

I heard David Marr on radio national last year. He said we have the most extreme defamation laws in the world and a lot less money in journalism to compile stories mean no-one will put up articles if they are sent lawyers letters to block release. He was talking about the Angus Taylor Watergate scandal, apparently his lawyers shut up everyone except the ABC who nearly got scared off and strangely channel 10 with the Project. He thinks it was because CBS was making a bit of a stand for press freedom after recently buying the station.

It's sad that journalism has come to this. If a minister decides that a journalist has acted against national interests they can be jailed without charge. Even if they don't release a source they can be jailed wth out charge. Politicians have cut the legs off journalism and pulled all it's teeth out. That's why the ABC is going to be slowly eroded away to nothing. Gives them a single message with no criticism through their preferred "News" services.

 

[gringo2011]

Jesus, this is the Daily Mail so probably bullshit, but god help the people if technology gets destroyed. Imagine being trapped in you house with no internet or phone.

Theories linking coronavirus to 5G are baseless, networks say after...

Shocking footage posted online captured a 70ft (21m) mast in Birmingham ablaze as fire crews tackled the inferno caused by a suspected arson attack.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[plugger66]

Jesus, this is the Daily Mail so probably bullshit, but god help the people if technology gets destroyed. Imagine being trapped in you house with no internet or phone.

Theories linking coronavirus to 5G are baseless, networks say after...

Shocking footage posted online captured a 70ft (21m) mast in Birmingham ablaze as fire crews tackled the inferno caused by a suspected arson attack.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Remember some people think 9/11 wasn’t real. Some people will believe anything especially if it suits their political side.

 

[triggering bro]

I think tourism - mainly international travel and the cruise industry - will be majority impacted until a vaccine is available. And potentially large scale events.

But things like retail, restaurants - maybe with a restricted amount allowed inside, office work, attractions, parks etc should all be able to return to normal operation (maybe in phases) once there is a seeable improvement. I dont see those types of things being prohibited for an extended period of time.

Brute I think we are close to agreeing. It was my mistake initially referring to it as “lockdown stages”, I should have called in “restriction stages”. International travel, tourism & large sporting event gatherings are examples of “restrictions that I suspect will be around until we have a vaccine.

With regard to retail, pubs, restaurants, etc I suspect they will also open when we see improvement however I think the close down restrictions will be reapplied during periods we see the virus rise it’s head again. This could be more targeted to regions/cities.

Unfortunately community transmissions means we have to deal with the virus for a longer period of time.

 

[Verdun]

I heard David Marr on radio national last year. He said we have the most extreme defamation laws in the world and a lot less money in journalism to compile stories mean no-one will put up articles if they are sent lawyers letters to block release. He was talking about the Angus Taylor Watergate scandal, apparently his lawyers shut up everyone except the ABC who nearly got scared off and strangely channel 10 with the Project. He thinks it was because CBS was making a bit of a stand for press freedom after recently buying the station.

It's sad that journalism has come to this. If a minister decides that a journalist has acted against national interests they can be jailed without charge. Even if they don't release a source they can be jailed wth out charge. Politicians have cut the legs off journalism and pulled all it's teeth out. That's why the ABC is going to be slowly eroded away to nothing. Gives them a single message with no criticism through their preferred "News" services.

Very good post gringo - most people now get most of their information from social media (Big Footy and Facebook!) and take it as gospel. I was surprised the Watergate scandal got out, but what happened after not a lot - he should not be in Parliament.

The attack on journalism specifically the ABC (including the raids) has been disgusting. More than that it , it is against democracy as important issues no longer get reported for fear of prosecution. Those seeking the facts are seen as in the wrong, not what they have highlighted (for example military indiscretions in Afghanistan etc)

The preferred news is News Ltd, or with Dutton his preferred outlet is 2GB where he knows he can own his message.

You are right sadly the ABC's investigative abilities are being eroded to nothing.

 

[plugger66]

Brute I think we are close to agreeing. It was my mistake initially referring to it as “lockdown stages”, I should have called in “restriction stages”. International travel, tourism & large sporting event gatherings are examples of “restrictionsthat I suspect will be around until we have a vaccine.

With regard to retail, pubs, restaurants, etc I suspect they will also open when we see improvement however I think the close down restrictions will be reapplied during periods we see the virus rise it’s head again. This could be more targeted to regions/cities.

Unfortunately community transmissions means we have to deal with the virus for a longer period of time.

Overseas travel could be a long way away. Can’t see it until a vaccine or they have a test that gives an instant result.

 

[bergholt]

A mortality rate of 0.0035% compared to 0.001%

I don't know, are people believing the economy will just snap back into place in say 6 months or even 3 months? I'm curious to know, because that's just not reality.

The peak unemployment rate during the Great Depression was 30%, we currently sit at 40% and rising. The stimulus package as enormous as it is, is a band aid, not a magic wand.

I don't think people appreciate what's coming. Many people that are now middle class will be homeless and may even go hungry.

I think your concerns are very valid, it will take the economy a long time to come back, but I think you're putting too much faith in ending lockdown solving that.

Economies hate uncertainty. In the face of uncertainty, individuals and businesses reduce their spending, and that's what kills the economy. Individuals won't spend much until their own situation feels comfortable and predictable. And businesses won't put people back on until demand increases.

The uncertainty isn't magically going to go away if the lockdown ends tomorrow. The uncertainty isn't caused by the lockdown. The uncertainty is caused by the virus and the world situation.

There's literally nothing the government can do about that, except a bit of priming the pump by throwing money around and a bit of QE. We have to go through this thing, there's no way to steer around it.

So I think you're right to be worried, but IMO you're wrong that there's anything magic that can be done about it.

 

[plugger66]

Maybe someone can explain why Spain France and Italy have had numbers drop in cases but not percentage wise as much as we have yet they have been in full lockdown longer than our nearly full lockdown. Surely it’s been close to 14 days and that is supposed to be the magical number. Is it because they live in bigger family groups than us and maybe also live closer together. I find it strange they are still getting huge new cases.

 

[bergholt]

Maybe someone can explain why Spain France and Italy have had numbers drop in cases but not percentage wise as much as we have yet they have been in full lockdown longer than our nearly full lockdown. Surely it’s been close to 14 days and that is supposed to be the magical number. Is it because they live in bigger family groups than us and maybe also live closer together. I find it strange they are still getting huge new cases.

Yeah, it's weird isn't it. I wonder if the point is that once you get to a certain level of infection in the community, even lockdown doesn't just fix it. Maybe at that point it just spreads extensively through essential services. Health workers obviously get it, food production and delivery ends up with transmission chains, etc. Maybe also people who suspect they might have it end up getting grouped with those who do have it so then it spreads there as well.

It seems to be a non-linear process. Because the growth rate depends on the density of infections, once you have twice as many infections you might also have twice the growth rate, which means very quickly you have ten times as many infections.

 

[Joffaboy]

Maybe someone can explain why Spain France and Italy have had numbers drop in cases but not percentage wise as much as we have yet they have been in full lockdown longer than our nearly full lockdown. Surely it’s been close to 14 days and that is supposed to be the magical number. Is it because they live in bigger family groups than us and maybe also live closer together. I find it strange they are still getting huge new cases.

The vast community transmissions. Can take up to 2 weeks to get sick then up to a month to recover.

Our transmissions were vastly from OS with a small (but growing) community transmission.
Remember, we are looking 2 to 3 weeks in the past, Spain and France also went into lockdown later than Italy.

The daily numbers are decreasing and if the lockdown is stricter than ours ( you cant even go outside for a walk in Italy) that trend should continue.

Victoria has bounced around 50 to 60 for about 2 or so weeks, yesterday only 30.

If we maintain or lessen that we can easily track contacts( we have 1000 + people vigorously tracking contacts) and test as many as possible of new infections and start to lift restrictions slowly. They then monitor the rate.

I am encouraged by Victoria's growth, this downward trend started before stage 3.

Still hoping if this continues we may even get footy, we no crowds but still.

 

[gringo2011]

Maybe someone can explain why Spain France and Italy have had numbers drop in cases but not percentage wise as much as we have yet they have been in full lockdown longer than our nearly full lockdown. Surely it’s been close to 14 days and that is supposed to be the magical number. Is it because they live in bigger family groups than us and maybe also live closer together. I find it strange they are still getting huge new cases.

When we stayed in Northern Italy, you definitely have more people living on top of each other. In Verona the place we stayed was like an apartment block made from an old stone house. There would have been 10 apartments some with families of 4. The street were all filled wall to wall with similar properties. Many little walk ways in and out with multiple doors that had old porous wood and hard to clean stone or stucco walls. The drains and stuff stink like they aren't very well maintained and they have these communal skips for household rubbish. You have to lift the lids by hand and are smelly bacterial nightmares. Shops are tiny, even supermarkets and the medieval lane sized streets don't allow space. Same in Venice and Bolzano. You literally have people living on top of each other in buildings that don't allow for serious disinfection.

 

[gringo2011]

Hopefully the US medical system gets put back in public hands after this. So unfair.

Uninsured Americans could be facing nearly $75,000 in medical bills if hospitalized for coronavirus

Thanks to lawmakers, coronavirus tests are now free for all Americans. But if you do test positive for COVID-19 and require treatment, the hospital bills could easily cost Americans tens of thousands of dollars.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Verdun]

Hopefully the US medical system gets put back in public hands after this. So unfair.

Uninsured Americans could be facing nearly $75,000 in medical bills if hospitalized for coronavirus

Thanks to lawmakers, coronavirus tests are now free for all Americans. But if you do test positive for COVID-19 and require treatment, the hospital bills could easily cost Americans tens of thousands of dollars.

www.cnbc.com

Vested interests ie (insurance company's etc) will make sure that does not happen, they put out propaganda that it is the responsibility of the individual to look after their own health therefore there is no need for universal health care.

Insurance is part of your employment over there and it does not work at all. There are a lot of people who work several jobs as a casual therefore their insurance does not cover what is needed.

The US has a huge underclass, that the Right plays to. It has been one of Trumps missions to get rid of ObamaCare with the argument that it takes your rights away! The intention was for basic care for all.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Got to be very grateful that we are an island I think.

I hereby promise, in the event that we ever get to travel overseas again, that I will never, ever complain about just how far away from almost everywhere Australia is!

 

[plugger66]

Got to be very grateful that we are an island I think.

I hereby promise, in the event that we ever get to travel overseas again, that I will never, ever complain about just how far away from almost everywhere Australia is!

I think you will find they are far away from us it we are far away from them.

 

[Diehard Saint]

I think you will find they are far away from us it we are far away from them.

Of course, but I am travelling from here.
Either way, the distance has been very beneficial for us in these circumstances.

 

[CursingFijian]

Remember some people think 9/11 wasn’t real. Some people will believe anything especially if it suits their political side.

We believe the Saints are going to start winning again.

Just saying.

 

[plugger66]

We believe the Saints are going to start winning again.

Just saying.

More hope of 9/11 not being real