Discussion Coronavirus

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jwikked said:
If I wore a tin foil hat, which occasionally I do, you’d almost think keeping that a secret would be ammunition to bring the WA Labor Government down a few notches.
Nothing will put a state government in more strife than a big breakout.
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the freo port authority is heavily union controlled to and has strong links with the WA Labor party here. i suspect that's how they heard about it this and got to the bottom of it pretty quickly.
 

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plugger66 said:
It can’t be defeated without a vaccine.
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George said:
Yes it can.
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No it can't :cool:

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plugger66 said:
Not a hope. Explain how? Do you really want the borders closed forever because that’s what it would take. Happy to hear your theory
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Well the comment was that Australia has nearly defeated the virus, not the rest of the world. I listen to the experts and the experts have said that if we keep social distancing for a couple of more months then we will have eliminated the virus.

May 8th, 2020
What stage are we at with COVID-19?

In Australia and New Zealand we currently have COVID-19 under control.


Importantly, in Australia, the effective reproduction number (Reff) is close to zero. Estimates of Reff come from mathematical modelling, which has not been published for New Zealand, but the Reff is likely to be close to zero in New Zealand too.


The Reff is the average number of people each infected person infects. So a Reff of 2 means on average, each person with COVID-19 infects two others.


If the Reff is greater than 1 the epidemic continues; if the Reff is equal to 1 it becomes endemic (that is, it grumbles along on a permanent basis); and if the Reff is lower than 1, the epidemic dies out.


So we could be on the way to elimination.
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George said:
Well the comment was that Australia has nearly defeated the virus, not the rest of the world. I listen to the experts and the experts have said that if we keep social distancing for a couple of more months then we will have eliminated the virus.
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Well I call defeating the virus getting back to everything normal not having no cases but If you want to work on that theory then we still haven’t had one day without a case. I see nothing to suggest a couple of more months of social distancing will get rid of the virus.
 
plugger66 said:
Well I call defeating the virus getting back to everything normal not having no cases but If you want to work on that theory then we still haven’t had one day without a case. I see nothing to suggest a couple of more months of social distancing will get rid of the virus.
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Our health minister came out 2 days ago and said based on mathematical modelling, if we keep up our efforts we will have eliminated it. Our Reff is below one and if it continues that way then the virus dies out.

Here's a good breakdown on how that is worked out;

Overall success
In a vast sea of COVID-19 numbers now being published by federal and state health agencies, the Reff conveniently shows the overall success of all measures to control the actual COVID-19 infection reproduction rate.

The basic reproduction number is the average number of people to whom an infected person passes on the virus in a population and is typically known as R, Rο or R naught.

In the Doherty model, Rο was estimated at 2.53,when social distancing measures were imposed in mid-March. The Reff is the actual transmission number being achieved at a point of time, and is known as Rt.


The public health aim is to get the Reff to below 1, so the infection will fade out.

In Hong Kong, the Reff is now being published in real time by the local medical faculty, as a guide for politicians and bureaucrats about the effectiveness of the relaxation, or tightening, of control measures.


The Melbourne University-Doherty modelling is being used by federal and state chief medical officers to advise national cabinet about COVID-19 infections and recommended interventions.

The initial modelling was focused on ensuring there was enough health capacity to deal with the virus and was highly influential in convincing leaders to impose strong level three community restrictions and to gear up hospitals.

This has led to a sharp fall in daily infection reports, which is now translating through to a lower Reff, and lower hospitalisation and death rates.
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So yes, we have nearly eliminated it.

This is Hong Kong's real time Reff statistics - notice as the cases fall so does the Reff.

 
George said:
Our health minister came out 2 days ago and said based on mathematical modelling, if we keep up our efforts we will have eliminated it. Our Reff is below one and if it continues that way then the virus dies out.

Here's a good breakdown on how that is worked out;



So yes, we have nearly eliminated it.
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No we haven’t. Find an article that suits you if you want. When will John from the USA be able to come here? Not very soon unless we live with it which will have to happen. This thing needs a vaccine to live our normal life and our normal life is travel wherever we want and travel is anyone can just turn up for holiday. That’s defeating it.
 
pebblesofsand said:
She...
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That would explain a bit actually. My wife is sweet as pie sometimes and other days she's out trying to smite me or turn me into a pillar of salt or what ever cruel punishment she can muster. Also demands to be adored and becomes vengeful when I look elsewhere. There was always a consistency issue with god in the Old Testament becoming the love hippy later on. If they are female that totally removes a major plausibility issue for me.
 
plugger66 said:
No we haven’t. Find an article that suits you if you want. When will John from the USA be able to come here? Not very soon unless we live with it which will have to happen. This thing needs a vaccine to live our normal life and our normal life is travel wherever we want and travel is anyone can just turn up for holiday. That’s defeating it.
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You're right, that is defeating it, but that wasn't the initial comment. Again, the initial comment was that we have defeated it. We as in Australia. With all due respect I'd take mathematical modelling over an opinion.
 
George said:
Well the comment was that Australia has nearly defeated the virus, not the rest of the world. I listen to the experts and the experts have said that if we keep social distancing for a couple of more months then we will have eliminated the virus.
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Here, yes maybe, but unless we truly want to live on an island (yeah I know) we need to open all borders both national and international at some stage and the chances are it’ll come again. So what good does completely eliminating it really do? The real end game is to keep it under control and manageable so it doesn’t overwhelm the health services, and that we have managed to do superbly so far. It’s something we are going to have to learn to live with until/if there ever is a vaccine. Like the flu.

Not sure if you’ve seen, but the minute the restrictions were relaxed, the social distancing has become so too and will do more so as the weeks past.

I’m back at school, and no matter what plans we have put in place, and we have - four staff rooms instead of one etc, it’s still not really conducive to socially distancing.

On a lighter note, every room in the school has a sign on the door stating how many adults are allowed in the room at one time. There is a single toilet fairly near my office and on the sign on the door it says “1“ 🙄
 
Diehard Saint said:
Here, yes maybe, but unless we truly want to live on an island (yeah I know) we need to open all borders both national and international at some stage and the chances are it’ll come again. So what good does completely eliminating it really do? The real end game is to keep it under control and manageable so it doesn’t overwhelm the health services, and that we have managed to do superbly so far. It’s something we are going to have to learn to live with until/if there ever is a vaccine. Like the flu.

Not sure if you’ve seen, but the minute the restrictions were relaxed, the social distancing has become so too and will do more so as the weeks past.

I’m back at school, and no matter what plans we have put in place, and we have - four staff rooms instead of one etc, it’s still not really conducive to socially distancing.

On a lighter note, every room in the school has a sign on the door stating how many adults are allowed in the room at one time. There is a single toilet fairly near my office and on the sign on the door it says “1“ 🙄
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Yep completely understand all that but it wasn't what the initial comment was about.
 
George said:
Yep completely understand all that but it wasn't what the initial comment was about.
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Yep I know. Just me wondering really what the point is of making total elimination in Aus the end game.
Not spoiling for a fight 🙂
 
Diehard Saint said:
Yep I know. Just me wondering really what the point is of making total elimination in Aus the end game.
Not spoiling for a fight 🙂
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Happy to throw down if you want?
 
Diehard Saint said:
Yep I know. Just me wondering really what the point is of making total elimination in Aus the end game.
Not spoiling for a fight
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Can open up bubbles internationally.

NZ then Oceania

Maybe then Tiawan, Sth Korea, Vietnam, even China.
Can get tourism going a bit.
 
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