Costello already predicting a recession!

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http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/10/16/1097784099124.html

Costello fears third oil shockBy Phillip Hudson
Political Correspondent
Canberra
October 17, 2004
Federal Treasurer Peter Costello has warned that the record international oil price could deliver a "double whammy" to the Australian economy, describing it as "the third oil price shock".

In an interview with The Sunday Age, Mr Costello said the rising oil price was the "greatest global risk" to the economy and there was not much relief in sight for motorists until the world oil price fell.

The price of oil hit a new high yesterday of $US55 a barrel and closed at $US54.93. The RACV said the price of a litre of unleaded fuel around Melbourne was as high as $1.09, although some service stations were selling


Only a week after the election our wonderfully successfull treasurer is predicting a oil led recession . Well Im gald i didnt vote for the lying prick>
I hope all those idiots in the outer suburbs with mortages that the cant really afford and that believed the Liberal ads are feeling "relaxed and comfortable" at the moment
 

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MightyFighting said:
All the unemployed people are gonna spend their time posting crap on BigFooty. :eek:
If the oil price keeps going up and the US economy goes down there will be plenty of unemployed - new ones LOL
 

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#6
An incumbent can't blame an opposition for things being "worse than expected" when reneging on every campaign promise.

They have to blame the economy.

Me, I prefer to blame the lemmings that voted for them.

But the economy won’t be bad enough for them to push a pay increase through as one of the first pieces of legislation. Mind you, it will probably be the only bill that receives bipartisan support.

And just to keep up the charade, we'll all appear outraged and pretend we didn't know what was coming, then in three years all turn out again and vote them in again. We are a bright lot. :rolleyes:
 

Fevola4God

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#7
butterflykiss said:
If the oil price keeps going up and the US economy goes down there will be plenty of unemployed - new ones LOL
I think the 'LOL' at the end of your post really sums up your general attitude towards politics. What part of higher unemployment makes you 'laugh out loud?'

I never usually believe in people who like bad things to happen to others if its orchestrated by their political rivals, in order to gain partisan points...but by god this comes jolly close.
 
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Fevola4God said:
I think the 'LOL' at the end of your post really sums up your general attitude towards politics. What part of higher unemployment makes you 'laugh out loud?'

I never usually believe in people who like bad things to happen to others if its orchestrated by their political rivals, in order to gain partisan points...but by god this comes jolly close.
Sorry but ofcourse I ment the LOL if the stupid twits couldnt see a recession coming and got got conned by Howard and Costello well bad luck I have no compassion for suckers ! Dont forget I also have to put up with a government I despise so why shouldnt I enjoy seeing them squirm?
 
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And this is why I said what I did mate! These people on high mortages will pay a high price wheh the economy goes bad as Costello is already predicting

http://smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/15/1097784047966.html


FromYet their advertising actually claimed "LOW DEBT" as one of their economic achievements. Huh?

This was a blatant case of bait-and-switch on Mr Howard's part, which sought to exploit the public's vagueness on just which debt it is we're supposed to be worried about.

He simply switched the focus from the foreign debt to the Commonwealth's net debt - which, thanks largely to the sale of half of Telstra, has been cut from $96 billion to $26 billion.

Labor did nothing to challenge this dishonesty. It should have explained why the foreign debt has begun exploding again and explained how this relates to interest rates.

It's our big four banks whose increased borrowing abroad explains most of the doubling in the foreign debt. Why have the banks been doing this? To get the money they lent to all their customers rushing to buy bigger and better homes.

It's all this borrowing that, in combination with the halving of mortgage interest rates, has caused the cost to houses to more than double. And it's this that's caused the total debt of Australian households to more than treble to $702 billion.

It's the huge indebtedness of so many families that makes them so sensitive to any suggestion mortgage rates may rise. Few punters realise that, right now, households are devoting a higher proportion of their disposable incomes to interest payments (9.3 per cent) than they were when the mortgage rate hit 17 per cent in 1989 under Labor (8.9 per cent).

This says the Libs have done far better than Labor on interest rates? Allowing such a deterioration in the affordability of home-ownership is a great thing?

The question Labor's unbelieving economic spokesmen had neither the wit nor the courage to ask was: if interest rates are so wonderfully low, how come our kids can't afford to buy homes?

Ross Gittins is the Herald's Economics Editor.
 
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Heres some more for all you Liberal lovers to digest. As I said before the election maybe a good one for Latham and the ALP to lose.

http://smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/15/1097784047966.html

Rate increases, economic downturn tipped
October 17, 2004 - 10:49PM

Interest rates are set to rise substantially in the next three years while the economy heads for a sharp downturn, economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel warned.

BIS Shrapnel painted its bleak outlook for the economy in its latest Long Term Forecasts 2004 to 2019 report.

The report said it was a myth to think that Australia's so-called golden age of moderate growth, low inflation and low interest rates could continue indefinitely.

Senior economist Matthew Hassan said the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would be forced to hike interest rates by between two and three percentage points in the next three years.

The rate rises would be driven by expected record low unemployment levels in the 2005/06 financial year, with many businesses likely to be forced to pay higher wages because of the lack of skilled workers.
 

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#11
butterflykiss said:
http://smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/15/1097784047966.html


Labor did nothing to challenge this dishonesty. It should have explained why the foreign debt has begun exploding again and explained how this relates to interest rates.


The question Labor's unbelieving economic spokesmen had neither the wit nor the courage to ask was: if interest rates are so wonderfully low, how come our kids can't afford to buy homes?

Ross Gittins is the Herald's Economics Editor.[/B]
Yes, good article.

Yet another commentator points to where the ALP stuffed up its campaign.
 

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#12
I think a lot of people here are thinking "Lying Libs, they campaign on low interest, and here we are only 1 week after the election and they are "suddely" realising interst rates will go up, we have been duped, etc etc..."

I think what we are possibly missing is that this is the Liberals starting the groundwork for the next election campaign.

The plan is to "talk up" the possibility of a recession, and soaring interest rates, so that in three years when they only go up 2.5% And not 5% the Libs can campaign on how well they steered the ship through tough times.

We are being played for fools.
 
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{The plan is to "talk up" the possibility of a recession, and soaring interest rates, so that in three years when they only go up 2.5% And not 5% the Libs can campaign on how well they steered the ship through tough times.
We are being played for fools.[/QUOTE]


Whats new? the majority were well and truly conned by Howard and Costello and the Murdoch press.
 

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#14
butterflykiss said:
{The plan is to "talk up" the possibility of a recession, and soaring interest rates, so that in three years when they only go up 2.5% And not 5% the Libs can campaign on how well they steered the ship through tough times.
We are being played for fools.

Whats new? the majority were well and truly conned by Howard and Costello and the Murdoch press.[/QUOTE]

More than just media. How convenient the BIS Shrapnel releases their dire predictions on interest rates AFTER the election!!
 

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#15
This may be the election to lose and why? If the country goes into a nose dive then the only party to blame will be the incumbent. People don't care why their mortgage rates go up they just don't want them to go up. If interest rates are sitting at 9.75% in three years time as per the BIS Sharpnel report, then the Libs will be out of office, guaranteed. It may be a blessing in disguise for the ALP, given if rates are 9.75% in 2007 and the ALP was in office then the Libs would have said "interest rates are higher under Labor" and would have quoted the current rate of say 9.75% against 7% as it was in 2004. ALP would then be in the wilderness for a generation. With the Libs in office, the general public doesn't understand global recessions and the like and will blame whoever is in power.
 

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#16
labour survived two elections with high interest rates

I would suggest that the libs would run a similar scare campaign again.

If labour wants to win they have to run a scare campaign and negative tactics.

latham was doing well attacking howard, then his minders got in his ear and he like a fool played the positive campaign and was shredded.

if he wants to win, he should have continued to do what got him high ratings in the first place and that is belittle and denigrate the PM and his cabinet.

fool.
 

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#17
dan warna said:
labour survived two elections with high interest rates

I would suggest that the libs would run a similar scare campaign again.

If labour wants to win they have to run a scare campaign and negative tactics.

latham was doing well attacking howard, then his minders got in his ear and he like a fool played the positive campaign and was shredded.

if he wants to win, he should have continued to do what got him high ratings in the first place and that is belittle and denigrate the PM and his cabinet.

fool.
Would doubt if you are right about the influence of minders, DW.
For Labor to be a long term match for the libs they have to delete the term "labor" from their insignia. Australian Economic Party or something like they need to change to. They could win office here and there as labor but in percenatge terms, the libs will hold office more often than not whilst their opponents are labor.
 

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#18
notenoughteams said:
Would doubt if you are right about the influence of minders, DW.
For Labor to be a long term match for the libs they have to delete the term "labor" from their insignia. Australian Economic Party or something like they need to change to. They could win office here and there as labor but in percenatge terms, the libs will hold office more often than not whilst their opponents are labor.
the things aussies are peed of with the lib govt is schools, taxes, war in iraq and truth in govt, the labour party went quiet on all of these really, and ran a 'what we'll do for you in govt'.

scare campaigns win.

clinton got in on 'can't trust the republicans with the economy', bush won on a defend america, keating beat a sure thing hewson (who was a decent if boring chap), on the 'GST', howard won on a 'black hole' rewon on the 'black hole' won on Tampa, and then won on 'interest rates' etc.

I would say most successful campaigns are not positive ones.

hewson ran a logical postive campaign and was slaughtered, same as buckets beazley.

right now the brilliant if evil :D republican party is running on 'protecting america'.

they've run up 500 billion dollar p/a deficits, they've handed tens of billions of dollars to haliburton, they've crippled welfare, they've give the top 2% of the population massive tax cuts, bolluxed the economy, bolluxed employment and have no plan for environmental protection and let criminals access auto matatic weapons when the moratorium expired.

They have one gun in their campaign, and that is security and protection from terrorists (basically a scare campaign) and its drowning out kerry to the point where bush is running kneck and kneck.

if latham wanted to win government, really wanted to win government he should have attacked the government, but was to gutless.

don't think howard is afraid of anything when it comes to dirty tactics to win power. I thought latham was a merciless as howard, but he turned soft and cuddly and got butchered.

if he wanted to win, he should have blamed the upsurge of terrorism on the government/war in iraq, etc. true or false is immataerial he had too many many messages, and the liberals had one (interest rates). Outside a small percentage of the population no one read, understood or cared about the liberals policies, or labours policies, the remember medicare gold and the interest rates campaign... its simple.

latham should have picked on a weak spot where there was sympathy in the populace and hammered it in.

everyone remembers the campaign of thel iberals (interest rates, tampa ships coming in, beazleys black hole etc).

latham I thought had the balls for hardball but he didn't this campaign. labour over intellectuallised and gave the general voting population too much credit with complex and well thought out policies.

they should have just gone for the jugular, a mistake keating, howard or hawke wouldn't have made.

folks is dumb (or at least enough of them that vote to count)
 

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#19
DW I had my vote and voted against Howard. Feel clean. Think you should try and look at a bigger national picture and look at why negative campaigns are employed. For the moment settle down. You have just got through the first week of 150 of this government. You'll get there.

A first point or question would be is it in the best interest of a nation for one man or woman to be PM for more than two terms. I would say not. An individual can never be the equal of a nation. Howard definitely had his sights on the record books. Had more to personally win than Latham. Thus was more prepared to denigrate than the bright eyed and bushy tail Latham.

A second point would be three year elections. Politicians want four year terms and most states have them. If you want positive campaigns you want an election every 365 days. Then neither governments or oppositions have as much to lose and elections aren't such dramatic winner takes all affairs. If we had elections each year, Latham's would have been a good campaign. Perhaps not win this time but set the scene for 365 days time. (The elephant gestation period is 22 months. The longest on earth. There is nothing biological that has 36 month cycles. To get more natural goverment, you need election cycles that are marked by one cycle of something.)
I would have all elections held on the first Monday in November. Run the horses next day and have a four day holiday weekend each. That's the cost of a good democracy.

At the moment we are living the way Keating belittled Howard in opposition. Howard is getting his own back in a big way. The wheel will turn one day. In the mean time either join a political party or be satisfied with your vote and look at how wrong can manifest. Not at how to be the equal of a wrong as you seem to want to be.
 
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notenoughteams said:
DW I had my vote and voted against Howard. Feel clean. Think you should try and look at a bigger national picture and look at why negative campaigns are employed. For the moment settle down. You have just got through the first week of 150 of this government. You'll get there.

A first point or question would be is it in the best interest of a nation for one man or woman to be PM for more than two terms. I would say not. An individual can never be the equal of a nation. Howard definitely had his sights on the record books. Had more to personally win than Latham. Thus was more prepared to denigrate than the bright eyed and bushy tail Latham.

A second point would be three year elections. Politicians want four year terms and most states have them. If you want positive campaigns you want an election every 365 days. Then neither governments or oppositions have as much to lose and elections aren't such dramatic winner takes all affairs. If we had elections each year, Latham's would have been a good campaign. Perhaps not win this time but set the scene for 365 days time. (The elephant gestation period is 22 months. The longest on earth. There is nothing biological that has 36 month cycles. To get more natural goverment, you need election cycles that are marked by one cycle of something.)
I would have all elections held on the first Monday in November. Run the horses next day and have a four day holiday weekend each. That's the cost of a good democracy.

At the moment we are living the way Keating belittled Howard in opposition. Howard is getting his own back in a big way. The wheel will turn one day. In the mean time either join a political party or be satisfied with your vote and look at how wrong can manifest. Not at how to be the equal of a wrong as you seem to want to be.
NETs your right in one way but Im getting sick of being "nice and right" and being screwed over by the conservatives at most elections, this tactic has been going on all my life (Im 62) and the only time Labor wins is when the hard men like Richardson and his ilk get control and take on the Howards of this world on their terms and get dirty or the economy stuffs up bigtime.
So from now on Im with the "what ever it takes school of thought"
I also hope Latham returns to type and dosent become another pussy cat like Beasley was in 2001.
Howard is a gutless wonder when you stand up to him. Just look how quickly he changed policy when Latham wedged him in Partiament. Remember that the "Worm" reacted the most against him when Iraq was mentioned and Im with Dan saying that the ALP were also to gutless to talk about the most important issues.
 

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#21
notenoughteams said:
Would doubt if you are right about the influence of minders, DW.
For Labor to be a long term match for the libs they have to delete the term "labor" from their insignia. Australian Economic Party or something like they need to change to. They could win office here and there as labor but in percenatge terms, the libs will hold office more often than not whilst their opponents are labor.
You have a real fascination with labels thinking they actually have an impact on what they name. The ALP would be stark raving mad to actually change the brand name - it has recognition, and to change it would probably ensure at least 10 years more in the wilderness.
 

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#22
notenoughteams said:
Would doubt if you are right about the influence of minders, DW.
For Labor to be a long term match for the libs they have to delete the term "labor" from their insignia. Australian Economic Party or something like they need to change to. They could win office here and there as labor but in percenatge terms, the libs will hold office more often than not whilst their opponents are labor.
Good point. A bit like the Liberals not having the word "conservative" in their name.
 
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