COVID-19 / Coronavirus

[Gralin]

I worked in the Food Manufacturing industry for 20 years in Quality Assurance / Food Safety roles and I used to get exhausted dealing with all of the multitude of requirements from government regulators / customers / standard bodies regarding meeting their standards of hygiene / testing / QA systems / etc.

But what got me the most is the customer who was purchasing product from our company and making us meet their high standards was at the same time purchasing cheap products from China. I always used to ask the question to them whether they held their Chinese suppliers to the same standards they were holding us and looking at the current outbreak of covid-19 and the unsanitary conditions it originated from in that wet market I think we have an answer.....

End of the day I don't see something like Covid-19 occurring in a country like Australia/Germany/USA etc because as imperfect as our governments may be they are by and large (relatively) free of corruption and we can trust that our officials actually have our best interests at heart.

This is not having a crack at Chinese people but end of the day the Chinese government will need to take a level of responsibility for this worldwide disaster (both in allowing it to happen in the first place and their delayed reaction once it did).

The mind boggles that multiple governments including our own are still delaying action.

You complain about the delays in China, fair enough but they didn't know what was coming.

What's our excuse, what's the UKs or US?

Why did it take so long for so much of Europe to take it seriously. It's not like by the time it hit they didn't know it was coming.

We still haven't really shut stuff down in Australia. Seems we are waiting for it to really spread to go into lockdown but the longer we wait the more it will spread and the worse the lockdown will be.

 

[TAITA]

Many years ago I bought a book called 'Level 4 - Virus hunters of the CDC' by Joe McCormick & Susan Fisher-Hoch about their first hand experiences with viruses both in the field and inside the bunker.

It was a good read, infact I've since reread it (not recently) and the 'moral' of the story was these viruses have always been there, it is us who is moving into their territory and discovering them (paraphrased).

Authoritarian regimes only interested in propaganda certainly make the situation worse and here, democracy and communism seem to be on an equal footing these days.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

The mind boggles that multiple governments including our own are still delaying action.

You complain about the delays in China, fair enough but they didn't know what was coming.

What's our excuse, what's the UKs or US?

Why did it take so long for so much of Europe to take it seriously. It's not like by the time it hit they didn't know it was coming.

We still haven't really shut stuff down in Australia. Seems we are waiting for it to really spread to go into lockdown but the longer we wait the more it will spread and the worse the lockdown will be.

The PRC had a time frame at the start of the pandemic to potentially control its spread. The fact that they knew about it but for political reasons did nothing (including threatening sending doctors to jail for speaking up about it) speaks volumes as to their priorities.

I don't disagree that other countries could have/should have done more but China bears a lot of responsibility in both allowing for the conditions for this virus to originate (wet market/wild animal trade) and for trying to hush it up at the start.

 

[wahawk]

Looks like a 17 game season at best

 

[Gralin]

The PRC had a time frame at the start of the pandemic to potentially control its spread. The fact that they knew about it but for political reasons did nothing (including threatening sending doctors to jail for speaking up about it) speaks volumes as to their priorities.

I don't disagree that other countries could have/should have done more but China bears a lot of responsibility in both allowing for the conditions for this virus to originate (wet market/wild animal trade) and for trying to hush it up at the start.

Yeah but I don't hold them accountable for how my countries government is ****ing up dealing with it.

I'm no fan of the people running the show in China. I think whatever information we get out of there is highly compromised. But it's not the only place like that and it's not like Western Governments including our own haven't been changing the laws to take the freedom of the press and the public's right to know away.

My issue with blame China is that it's not like the people in China really have anywhere as much of a chance to do something about it as we do here.

We get blamed for what the current Government does or doesn't do fine, we elected them, we can vote for someone else next time.

It's super easy to go from the Ruling Party in China to all of China to anyone who has Chinese heritage to anyone who looks Asian.

There are so many things that could have been done better to prevent or limit this at the start.

But they weren't done and what I want to see is the Government here taking this seriously and doing the hard things to make the impact here as small as possible.

 

[phreeze77]

Just some thoughts on the afl decision today.

Dangerfields fingers all over the 17 game season.

Silk won’t get to 400 this year.

This years premier will forever have an asterisk next to them because of an incomplete fixture.

 

[flinchfree]

Nearly 370 people died from Covid 19 in a single day in Italy yesterday....
Need to play offense right now to limit the tragedy, been talking to friends in Ormond and they're already keeping their kid from attending b'day parties and such, want to know why the govt doesn't just come out and cancel school and show some bloody leadership. They're in an awkward situation just making that decision themselves while others continue to attend. People already know what needs to happen but could use a little leadership by those in authority who should know more and take the hesitancy and unsuredness from people's hearts and heads.
It's a must.

 

[Brishawk]

Nearly 370 people died from Covid 19 in a single day in Italy yesterday....
Need to play offense right now to limit the tragedy, been talking to friends in Ormond and they're already keeping their kid from attending b'day parties and such, want to know why the govt doesn't just come out and cancel school and show some bloody leadership. They're in an awkward situation just making that decision themselves while others continue to attend. People already know what needs to happen but could use a little leadership by those in authority who should know more and take the hesitancy and unsuredness from people's hearts and heads.
It's a must.

We know what to do in a flood or fire etc. but we just don’t face much in the way of biosecurity issues due to our good fortune of being an island. I just don’t think they know what to do or go about making these kinds of decisions. I think a lot will change out of this.

edit: case in point, act declared a state of emergency with two confirmed cars when Queensland aren’t there yet have the second most cases in the country. They just don’t have robust criteria for this kind of decision.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Yeah but I don't hold them accountable for how my countries government is ******* up dealing with it.

I'm no fan of the people running the show in China. I think whatever information we get out of there is highly compromised. But it's not the only place like that and it's not like Western Governments including our own haven't been changing the laws to take the freedom of the press and the public's right to know away.

My issue with blame China is that it's not like the people in China really have anywhere as much of a chance to do something about it as we do here.

We get blamed for what the current Government does or doesn't do fine, we elected them, we can vote for someone else next time.

It's super easy to go from the Ruling Party in China to all of China to anyone who has Chinese heritage to anyone who looks Asian.

There are so many things that could have been done better to prevent or limit this at the start.

But they weren't done and what I want to see is the Government here taking this seriously and doing the hard things to make the impact here as small as possible.

My wife is Chinese and I have two half Chinese kids so trust me I am not advocating or encouraging discrimination against people of Asian heritage.

But if anytime anyone criticises China they are labelled anti Chinese/racist this enables the PRC to get away with a lot of shady shit.

I have been to China multiple times and trust me, for all the talk of our governments cracking down on our freedom of press, etc (and this is true to an extent) living in China another thing altogether (the people are brainwashed from birth to venerate the party and its leaders).

If Sco-mo had acted the way the PRC had in covering up the Covid-19 he would be sitting in jail right now.

 

[Lickmesocks]

The thing I am finding frustrating at the moment is we are hedging our bets at the minute and this worries me.

my work is isolating some staff and making them work from home however face to face salespeople still need to go and sell.

Some schools are shutting down while some are running.

The NRL are basically saying they can’t afford to not run a season.....

The AFL seem to be sitting on the fence.

Surely they cannot even contemplate starting a season until every player in the league has been tested as a starting point can they?

 

[UsedtoKick50]

I can understand why people are anxious, angry or nervous that we are not yet in full lockdown. But I can also understand why the Government, at this stage, is looking to stagger the process.

We are not near the worst of this thing. Winter is a major concern. As of now, our health care system is not at a crisis point, or close. It really is the calm before the storm. When we do go into full lockdown, we need everyone committing to this. Lives depend on it. If you go early, you risk when this crisis is at its peak, people have reached a compliance fatigue and are less committed.

If you lockdown everyone now, it will be for months, not weeks. This virus will still be in the community in two weeks even if we all isolate, worse as it get's colder.

 

[MasterSamurai]

Don’t be surprised if a vaccine is available by April via Israel!
Covid-19 is just another name for SARS-2. I’m in Istanbul for business and I must say that it is so far, the safest place to be as the government with the health officials have been right on top of this from day dot! The only concern here is the people coming back from Pilgrimage from Mecca. They are under quarantine at the minute.

 

[Gralin]

My wife is Chinese and I have two half Chinese kids so trust me I am not advocating or encouraging discrimination against people of Asian heritage.

But if anytime anyone criticises China they are labelled anti Chinese/racist this enables the PRC to get away with a lot of shady shit.

I have been to China multiple times and trust me, for all the talk of our governments cracking down on our freedom of press, etc (and this is true to an extent) living in China another thing altogether (the people are brainwashed from birth to venerate the party and its leaders).

If Sco-mo had acted the way the PRC had in covering up the Covid-19 he would be sitting in jail right now.

Oh yeah I'm not saying you shouldn't question them or that doing so is racist.
Language is important though, what you are questioning. Whether you are generalising about the people there or taking about the government or specific actions etc.

The thing I am finding frustrating at the moment is we are hedging our bets at the minute and this worries me.

my work is isolating some staff and making them work from home however face to face salespeople still need to go and sell.

Some schools are shutting down while some are running.

The NRL are basically saying they can’t afford to not run a season.....

The AFL seem to be sitting on the fence.

Surely they cannot even contemplate starting a season until every player in the league has been tested as a starting point can they?

Yeah a lot of people don't think it's that big a deal still and you can tell.

 

[grumbleguts]

I can understand why people are anxious, angry or nervous that we are not yet in full lockdown. But I can also understand why the Government, at this stage, is looking to stagger the process.

We are not near the worst of this thing. Winter is a major concern. As of now, our health care system is not at a crisis point, or close. It really is the calm before the storm. When we do go into full lockdown, we need everyone committing to this. Lives depend on it. If you go early, you risk when this crisis is at its peak, people have reached a compliance fatigue and are less committed.

If you lockdown everyone now, it will be for months, not weeks. This virus will still be in the community in two weeks even if we all isolate, worse as it get's colder.

There is absolutely no basis for waiting, none at all, ever.

 

[thejockey]

The testing lab in Melbourne are pulling 16 hour shifts to keep up with the testing. They are actually keeping up the pace of the tests at this stage.
They are expecting a huge spike in the next 5-7 days .

 

[Lickmesocks]

There is absolutely no basis for waiting, none at all, ever.

. Peter Larkins just said we are predicting 10-30% of Aussies will cop this.
That could mean 2.8 million and up to 8 million based on these predictions.

Surely we have to isolate right now don’t we?

 

[Lickmesocks]

And the other thing that is really pissing me off at the minute is the panic shopping.

We have just come out of a horrendous period where we stood together and raised millions to help those affected by the fires and yet now we are behaving like it’s every man for himself.

The govt need to Step in now. For those of us that have kids and haven’t stockpiled food and bloody toilet paper we are now dealing with empty bloody supermarkets.

Everyone need to calm right down. Supermarkets and pharmacy’s will remain open even when we are in lockdown .

 

[TAITA]

[emoji817]. Peter Larkins just said we are predicting 10-30% of Aussies will cop this.
That could mean 2.8 million and up to 8 million based on these predictions.

Surely we have to isolate right now don’t we?

Peter Larkins? Bit like quoting Wiki mate.

 

[thejockey]

. Peter Larkins just said we are predicting 10-30% of Aussies will cop this.
That could mean 2.8 million and up to 8 million based on these predictions.

Surely we have to isolate right now don’t we?

My mates been saying for weeks we are two weeks behind where we need to be .

Should have been strict distancing two weeks ago and lock down right now . We've missed the boat unfortunately .

 

[Simon Crawshay]

The problem I have with making everyone self isolate is that it takes a certain % of the population to keep the essential services running.

Imagine if all of the power generators shut down, police stopped going to work, food manufactures closed their plants, garbos stopped picking up our rubbish, etc, etc.

It is not feasible to self isolate the majority of the population, society would collapse within a week. The cure would be a lot, lot worse than the disease.

 

[Brishawk]

. Peter Larkins just said we are predicting 10-30% of Aussies will cop this.
That could mean 2.8 million and up to 8 million based on these predictions.

Surely we have to isolate right now don’t we?

Herd immunity kicks in between 40% to 70%. 10-30% seems imaginatively low as a forecast.

 

[Hawk Dork]

The problem I have with making everyone self isolate is that it takes a certain % of the population to keep the essential services running.

Imagine if all of the power generators shut down, police stopped going to work, food manufactures closed their plants, garbos stopped picking up our rubbish, etc, etc.

It is not feasible to self isolate the majority of the population, society would collapse within a week. The cure would be a lot, lot worse than the disease.

No one is suggesting no doctors, nurses, supermarket workers, warehouse and delivery,farmers, police, chemists or soldiers

 

[Brishawk]

This is the confirmed COVID-19 cases in some countries of interest. You can see that it took China roughly a month to halt the the progression of COVID-19 and they were using all of their authoritarian powers (such as drones, the army and welding doors closed so people couldn't get out of apartment buildings...allegedly). Australia is the blue line....so nothing to worry about, right?


Hmmm, not really. The absolute magnitude of our progression is small relative to some of the other countries so it hides the slope on the first chart. And what is our government doing to halt the progression of the virus? Well two weeks ago the prime minister said "here in Australia we have got ahead of it early, and we are staying ahead of it"...pretty much right at that moment the number of confirmed cases turned near to straight upward on the chart below. Since then, after waiting to see what Jacinta Ahern did, we copied her mandatory self-isolation policy and eventually imposed a ban on mass gatherings...right after a hissing mass was performed and the opening round of the NRL.


Comparing ourselves to a high population density but organised country like Singapore, we can see we have overtaken them (hard to believe given our swift and decisive actions).


So this data should be pretty close to accurate numbers but I have noticed the occasional discrepancy at state level between reported figures. Don't base any health of financial decisions based on these charts (I'm not a doctor or financial advisor) however I hope you can see that we are only at the beginning of this and given our government's hesitant attitude towards closing schools and encouraging people to stay home etc., we may well be in for a much longer journey than the Chinese example. Without wanting to overly alarm anyone, if you assume a 20% infection rate (very bottom of estimates) and a 1% mortality rate, that is 50,000 people in Australia who will die from this disease. At the same time, there is no shortage to toilet paper so please don't raid supermarkets. Although I am very thankful Aussies hoard toilet paper instead of guns and ammunition like what is happening in parts of the US.

references:

COVID-19/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series at master · CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases, provided by JHU CSSE - CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

github.com

Aged care facilities may be put in 'lock down' if COVID-19 outbreak worsens, says PM

Aged care facilities could be put into "lockdown" if the COVID-19 threat continues to rise, the prime minis...

9now.nine.com.au

No Cookies | Daily Telegraph

No Cookies

www.dailytelegraph.com.au

 

[Lickmesocks]

So we have a situation where we both work full time and have kids at primary school.
Both our employers are saying business as usual.

The school is sending updates every day and it’s only a matter of time before they shut down.

we are then told don’t give your kids to the grandparents as the kids carry it and are able to fight it but put the grandparents are at greater risk if they get it.

It is very challenging times.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

No one is suggesting no doctors, nurses, supermarket workers, warehouse and delivery,farmers, police, chemists or soldiers

A lot of the posts I am reading do not seem to make that distinction.

I don't have any issue preventing non essential workers (however you want to define that) self isolate.