Mega Thread >>COVID-19 DISCUSSION THREAD<<

[Swansujelly]

Vitamins are only beneficial if your diet is i adequate. Eat an orange, job done.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I think AFL could of potentially started today honestly there is barely any new cases and it would of been iconic for it to resume on ANZAC day.

Obviously no crowds.

 

[mikey_san]

Aus company Mesoblast study of their treatment in NY brought survivor rate of those on ventilators up to 83%.
This result could open us up very soon - if people can get the most serious case of it, and still pull through the rate of death stat will become negligible fairly rapidly. The long term effects are another isssue though, some of them look worrying. I'm all for opening us up soon in stages, starting with regional areas - as long as the hospital system is coping and treatments like this are available. Swans can move to Wagga Wagga or something. Staying in the Eastern suburbs will have them catch it within a week or so - thanks to all those shagging backpackers.

Key points:• 83% survival in ventilator-dependent COVID-19 patients (10/12) with moderate/severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) treated with two infusions of Mesoblast’s allogeneic cell therapy remestemcel-L within the first five days under emergency compassionate use at New York City’s Mt Sinai hospital during the period March-April 2020• 75% (9/12) have successfully come off ventilator support within a median of 10 days• These results contrast with only 9% of ventilator-dependent COVID-19 patients being able to come off ventilators with standard of care treatment and only 12% survival in ventilator-dependent COVID-19 patients at two major referral hospital networks in New York during the same time period1,2

 

[swansfan51]

One of the world's top epidemiologists, Gabriel Leung, saying what I posted here a few days ago. The government will determine a level of acceptable deaths and manage the response accordingly.

The baseline is: Every year, the flu kills a lot of people in Europe, thousands, even tens of thousands. But you don’t get a riot every year. So, it seems to be acceptable to people to deal with that level of morbidity and mortality. Nobody likes it, but it is tolerated.

"You Need the Sledgehammer" To Bring Down Infections

In an interview, Hong Kong-based epidemiologist Gabriel Leung explains why he considers a rapid lifting of contact bans and social distancing measures to be irresponsible. The corona crisis, he believes, will be with us for a long time.

www.spiegel.de

Leung earlier says that containment has failed everywhere and elimination is not possible.

 

[J_Moore]

Every time there is a death they will be checking for COVID 19.

who told you this?

 

[Olian]

who told you this?

My GP.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Morrison just said Social Distancing laws will remain in place untill there is a mainstream vaccine.

So uhh no crowds in 2021 either?

 

[kickthething]

Morrison just said Social Distancing laws will remain in place untill there is a mainstream vaccine.

So uhh no crowds in 2021 either?

All the talk is always about vaccines, what if an effective treatment is discovered...surely this is just as important...vaccines may never be discovered.

 

[The King!]

Morrison just said Social Distancing laws will remain in place untill there is a mainstream vaccine.

So uhh no crowds in 2021 either?

Will be interesting

I don’t think anyone would stand for it

 

[Punts]

Haven’t some states been told that things like Small gatherings etc will be ok starting tomorrow

 

[The King!]

Haven’t some states been told that things like Small gatherings etc will be ok starting tomorrow

Wa and Queensland have announced reductions

I read somewhere happy to be corrected that the act that gives health ministers special powers to enact restrictions can only be done consecutively for up to 6 Months

 

[J_Moore]

My GP.

hospitals aren’t under any pressure to classify deaths as COVID deaths regardless of other factors

 

[Ticky009]

First decompile on the phone app For those interested


A good assessment of tracking apps overall

Coronavirus: Why are there doubts over contact-tracing apps?

Experts raise concerns about Bluetooth technology and the risks of "mission creep".

www.bbc.com

 

[Swansujelly]

Anyone getting the app?

 

[Angry Red Bull]

10 critically ill patients all on ventilators were given convalescent plasma and all recovered within about 4 days. this together with Vit c, d, zinc will be the treatment with a 100% success IMO. once this filters through and enough donation occurs (probably 2mths ) the community will feel safe again. worst case if we never get a vaccine we can use CP to create herd immunity. but I think there will be a vaccine by about Jan

 

[scaryness]

If there ever is a vaccine it will probably take all year to administer it to everyone.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

If there ever is a vaccine it will probably take all year to administer it to everyone.

First will be front line medical
Then probably aged care residents and staff
Ambulance and paramedics
GPs
those over 70 in community
those with heart disease diabetes and other vulnerable illness
Those aged over 60
rest of the herd

roll it out using GPs just like the flu shot. 3-4 months I would expect but that is from when it’s available. i would imagine that international cooperation
Will enable world wide production simultaneously unless of course Donald tries to corner the market. Hopefully he is instead cornering the market in disinfectants lol

 

[kickthething]

10 critically ill patients all on ventilators were given convalescent plasma and all recovered within about 4 days. this together with Vit c, d, zinc will be the treatment with a 100% success IMO. once this filters through and enough donation occurs (probably 2mths ) the community will feel safe again. worst case if we never get a vaccine we can use CP to create herd immunity. but I think there will be a vaccine by about Jan

That is a clever idea....and logically makes a lot of sense. Do the antibodies live forever once you have been successfully treated, so could a former sufferer continue to donate blood for this reason?

 

[Ticky009]

Anyone getting the app?

I'll wait for two things.
1) I'll give them a couple of weeks to clean up the code.
2) Ill wait to see what the final legislative rules are. Because currently, there aren't any approved by parliament.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

That is a clever idea....and logically makes a lot of sense. Do the antibodies live forever once you have been successfully treated, so could a former sufferer continue to donate blood for this reason?

Not sure but my guess is a short while only.

it’s a strategy that’s been around a hundred years and used in all pandemics.

 

[Ticky009]

Latest document by NCIRS for NSW Health in regard to school for those interested

http://ncirs.org.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/NCIRS%20NSW%20Schools%20COVID_Summary_FINAL%20public_26%20April%202020.pdf

 

[Angry Red Bull]

One of the world's top epidemiologists, Gabriel Leung, saying what I posted here a few days ago. The government will determine a level of acceptable deaths and manage the response accordingly.

"You Need the Sledgehammer" To Bring Down Infections

In an interview, Hong Kong-based epidemiologist Gabriel Leung explains why he considers a rapid lifting of contact bans and social distancing measures to be irresponsible. The corona crisis, he believes, will be with us for a long time.

www.spiegel.de

Leung earlier says that containment has failed everywhere and elimination is not possible.

Understand. I have conceptual difficulty though with a blanket remark that its impossible to eradicate the virus. In fact I do not believe that to be correct. He is the expert and I’m just an accountant but let’s be real about what’s happening here in Aust. Correct me if I’m wrong but SA and WA seem entirely clear of cases and have done for a week maybe two. They are the size of many European countries so straight up he is wrong if pattern remains another week say. That is the standard incubation period. They have already eradicated virus in those states. NSW now down to 2 new cases overnight and testing is being heavily pushed to anyone feeling a little off at all. Save Sydney and Melbourne population density is such that social distancing in outlier regions virtually assure eradication unless there is poor compliance. Central coast in NSW has virtually ceased local transmission. I’m kinda thinking that the Melbourne strategy of massive testing may help here. Indeed why not even test ALL residents of those two cities on a rolling alphabetic basis. we have enough tests to do that AND they appear the only two places it may hide undetected. Perhaps GC too. So hammer testing I say. I still think eradication is the preference and I don’t believe it’s impossible especially here in Aust with our unique geophysical criteria of closed borders and massive low population density except several cities. Thoughts?

 

[Ticky009]

Probably the best summary I've seen so far on the Corona phone app decompile & findings

GitHub - vteague/contactTracing: Examination of security and privacy implications of automated contact tracing

Examination of security and privacy implications of automated contact tracing - vteague/contactTracing

github.com

 

[The King!]

Understand. I have conceptual difficulty though with a blanket remark that its impossible to eradicate the virus. In fact I do not believe that to be correct. He is the expert and I’m just an accountant but let’s be real about what’s happening here in Aust. Correct me if I’m wrong but SA and WA seem entirely clear of cases and have done for a week maybe two. They are the size of many European countries so straight up he is wrong if pattern remains another week say. That is the standard incubation period. They have already eradicated virus in those states. NSW now down to 2 new cases overnight and testing is being heavily pushed to anyone feeling a little off at all. Save Sydney and Melbourne population density is such that social distancing in outlier regions virtually assure eradication unless there is poor compliance. Central coast in NSW has virtually ceased local transmission. I’m kinda thinking that the Melbourne strategy of massive testing may help here. Indeed why not even test ALL residents of those two cities on a rolling alphabetic basis. we have enough tests to do that AND they appear the only two places it may hide undetected. Perhaps GC too. So hammer testing I say. I still think eradication is the preference and I don’t believe it’s impossible especially here in Aust with our unique geophysical criteria of closed borders and massive low population density except several cities. Thoughts?

There seems to be a logic too a suggestion that as we set now and people recover (or sadly die) if you have zero cases then surely eradication occurs?

but i guess that relies on knowing every case, and somehow catching those not displaying symptoms ?

also each time we bring,people home then theres an increase

but getting it to basically nothing seems achieved already

 

[scaryness]

Say we reopen small businesses and undo the mass gatherings ban, life goes back to relevant normalcy. 3 weeks later we start getting 100+ cases a day because of asympotmatic carriers or the like.

Good luck getting people to be on board with going back into lockdown again and closing businesses down again. They will be 500% safe than sorry with this.