Opinion Covid-19 & The footy season (& food & sheep)...

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sideswipe

Club Legend
Jun 10, 2014
2,940
4,106
AFL Club
Collingwood
Yes. In the scheme of things relatively speaking 100 thousand is trivial.
And let's not forget that at the moment 1000 australians have it and you are taking a leap from 1000 to 12,500,000.
But let's take your scenario even further. Let's say that every single Australian gets the virus. And let's take your scenario one step further and assume a mortality rate of not 2% but 6%. I am talking never going to happen scenario here.
With the above ridiculous scenario. which would never happen, Australia's population would go from 25,000,000 to 23,500,000.
Hardly the end of the world.
Really?! 1.5m deaths would see circa 5 times more in need of serious medical intervention. That would see the breakdown of modern society!


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Baltimore Jack

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 12, 2011
19,180
22,645
AFL Club
Collingwood
Yes. In the scheme of things relatively speaking 100 thousand is trivial.
And let's not forget that at the moment 1000 australians have it and you are taking a leap from 1000 to 12,500,000.
But let's take your scenario even further. Let's say that every single Australian gets the virus. And let's take your scenario one step further and assume a mortality rate of not 2% but 6%. I am talking never going to happen scenario here.
With the above ridiculous scenario. which would never happen, Australia's population would go from 25,000,000 to 23,500,000.
Hardly the end of the world.
Moronic

Society as we know it would collapse

What fantasy world are you living in?
 

Finnishpie

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 16, 2014
5,564
4,368
AFL Club
Collingwood
Yes. In the scheme of things relatively speaking 100 thousand is trivial.
And let's not forget that at the moment 1000 australians have it and you are taking a leap from 1000 to 12,500,000.
But let's take your scenario even further. Let's say that every single Australian gets the virus. And let's take your scenario one step further and assume a mortality rate of not 2% but 6%. I am talking never going to happen scenario here.
With the above ridiculous scenario. which would never happen, Australia's population would go from 25,000,000 to 23,500,000.
Hardly the end of the world.
Lol. Keep em coming.
 

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HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
6,662
6,725
AFL Club
Collingwood
This whole coronavirus thing is insane.
Talk about a massive overreaction.
There is a conspiracy behind all of this.
I don't know what that conspiracy is but it's there.
Nothing form the information that has been given to us suggests we should be behaving like this.
This is crazy.
People...if you get the virus, and the probabilities of you getting it are low, but if you do get it and you are under the age of 60 then you are almost certainly going to get over it.
For 99.99 percent of the worlds population it is going to be a non event.
Yes people are going to die, I'm not trying to trivialize that.
But for the vast vast vast majority of the population you are either not going to get it or if you do are going to be bedridden for a week or so.
There is something going on here.
This panic which we are all being told to be a part of just doesn't make sense.
i suggest you listen to the podcast Epidemic. There is a couple of experts on these things that explain this trying to not be political. I think you might have a different view afterwards
 

Kappa

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 7, 2014
18,676
22,295
AFL Club
Collingwood
Well, I got the numbers from Norman Swan, of Coronacast. And from an epidemiologist's article in the Guardian. To manufacture enough and distribute it to everyone in the world is going to take longer than 6 months. In Australia we might be lucky and they'll get it done sooner.

First they have to develop it.
They'll definitely get it done much sooner for the richer countries with high infection rates (like us).

Poorer countries with only a few cases it will take a while.

You'd be surprised how much China can do when the government forces literally every factory to mass produce this stuff 24/7, which they will. Plus we'll have our own factories working on it 24/7 too, and not everyone in Australia will need to have it immediately.... Once the majority are cured and there's a vaccine then life will go back to normal pretty quick.
 

Maggie5

Moderator
Apr 3, 2010
39,737
39,298
Victoria
AFL Club
Collingwood
Yes. In the scheme of things relatively speaking 100 thousand is trivial.
And let's not forget that at the moment 1000 australians have it and you are taking a leap from 1000 to 12,500,000.
But let's take your scenario even further. Let's say that every single Australian gets the virus. And let's take your scenario one step further and assume a mortality rate of not 2% but 6%. I am talking never going to happen scenario here.
With the above ridiculous scenario. which would never happen, Australia's population would go from 25,000,000 to 23,500,000.
Hardly the end of the world.
In Italy due to shortages of medical equipment, doctors are deciding who lives and who dies. Is that the sort of society you want in 2020 (based on their age)?

The figures I saw from the USA is that 55% of those that have been tested positive are in the 18 -54 age group, that was news to me as I thought it was in the older group. Now I am in the plus 65 group and take medication for heart and kidney disease so if I get it, it may be one of the doctors that decide my future.

Not sure that I am happy with that, based on my age.
 
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Mr Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 1, 2010
17,554
9,647
AFL Club
Richmond
I don't think there's any chance the season will get anywhere close to finishing.

Best case scenario we get over this virus by October/November, right when the cricket world cup starts and takes all the football stadiums... And then we need to fit in 16 rounds + finals into October November December with grounds that have cricket pitches..

By that stage clubs need another pre-season to.

Clubs not doing anything now safely for a few weeks before the virus hits hard and risk increases is a total waste!!!

The idea clubs will return end of May in the winter smacks of arrogance and is borderline delusional in my opinion!!

Meanwhile clubs like Richmond and Collingwood miss an opportunity to strength and broaden their growth and brand while actually becoming weaker in exposure especially in the US and within the corporate climate thanks to the likes of Gil!!
 

frizzle

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 10, 2009
5,200
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I’m not sure how many ways I can write fake news before it sinks in Frizz? I mean the headline says it all too “hope”...
I love your work Sco, but you are a pessimistic bugger. :)
Perhaps Loki & I are a little more optimistic?
Lets see where we sit in this. Hospitals are using the drugs now.
We are I think over 1300 infections now with just 7 deaths? Perhaps there is hope.
 

Scodog10

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 25, 2008
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I love your work Sco, but you are a pessimistic bugger. :)
Perhaps Loki & I are a little more optimistic?
Lets see where we sit in this. Hospitals are using the drugs now.
We are I think over 1300 infections now with just 7 deaths? Perhaps there is hope.
Do you think our country would be moving toward a national shutdown with all states shutting their borders and talks of 6 month closures if there were a likelihood that there were treatments out there? This is much the same as Trump’s China virus comments which are used to draw attention away from the serious questions. Such as why those passengers were allowed to disembark that cruise ship? Why the PM is stating schools will remain open when states want them closed?

If it were likely to take the death rate from the .6% it is down to say .1% it would be BAU aside from the international travel ban because it would be a massive shot in the arm for the economy. I think it’s great that you’ve taken an optimistic glean toward it I’d just prefer you not confuse my realistic POV with pessimism. Once the WHO and the states/ nations chief health officers weigh in with positive news on treatments I’ll start buying in, but until then the only people potentially winning from this are big pharma, IMO...
 
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No SPIN

Premiership Player
Jun 14, 2009
3,580
2,996
Vic
AFL Club
Collingwood
It might be wise for our club to get on the phone tomorrow and hire our players treadmills and home gyms to help keep fitness levels up if they aren't allowed to train together at our headquarters or have to self isolate at some stage.

If going outside is still allowed for exercise but we can't congregate then an individual exercise program can be devised by Kevin White.

If training has to be abandoned I don't see many problems arising if we take a professional approach to finding alternative options.
I expect that teams will try to circumvent the self isolation rules to get a competitive advantage - I would not be surprised if such clandestine gatherings of teams, is leaked/exposed by competitors to the media.
 
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swoop42

Premiership Player
Sep 29, 2014
3,768
6,931
The 22
AFL Club
Collingwood
Forget the vaccine for now. I want clarification and a status update on three things that could help save Australian lives.

1. If we're able to manufacturer ventilators locally have we begun and how many can we produce a week?

2. Is our relatively low death rate at present in part due to our trialing of a malaria medication as an effective treatment option?

3. If the malaria medication is proving to be an effective treatment at what stage of the illness does it need to administered by before it becomes to late to work?

Personally if I or a loved one becomes very unwell with coronavirus I will be demanding the malaria drug as treatment if the trials we are told are underway are promising but not yet completed. Nothing to lose. Dose me up doc.
 

J Albert

Team Captain
Apr 27, 2014
301
444
AFL Club
Collingwood
This whole coronavirus thing is insane.
Talk about a massive overreaction.
There is a conspiracy behind all of this.
I don't know what that conspiracy is but it's there.
Nothing form the information that has been given to us suggests we should be behaving like this.
This is crazy.
People...if you get the virus, and the probabilities of you getting it are low, but if you do get it and you are under the age of 60 then you are almost certainly going to get over it.
For 99.99 percent of the worlds population it is going to be a non event.
Yes people are going to die, I'm not trying to trivialize that.
But for the vast vast vast majority of the population you are either not going to get it or if you do are going to be bedridden for a week or so.
There is something going on here.
This panic which we are all being told to be a part of just doesn't make sense.
I suggest you do more reading before spewing misinformation. It's not a conspiracy. Look at Italy.
 

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Scodog10

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 25, 2008
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YeS We KnOw TrUMp SaiD It WaS Like ComMon FlU and It'S a PanDEmiC. :drunk: :drunk: :drunk:

About time to start having compassion to all those around the world suffering from this you fraud!
It’s worth pointing out though that those numbers aren’t accurate because most countries are only testing on the basis of benchmarking so anyone that’s asymptomatic is being missed which inflates the death rate.

The most reliable data is South Korea’s because of the volume of testing they’ve undertaken and their numbers currently sit at 8,897 positive tests and 104 deaths or a little over 1% according to the John Hopkins website. There’s obviously going to be factors impacting on that which will inflate the figure depending on how well you flatten the curve, however the real death rate is closer to .6% according to Amesh Adalja who works in health security at John Hopkins.
 
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Gone Critical

Moderator
Mar 11, 2007
11,859
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Abbotsford
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Collingwood
If we can slow the contagion rate enough that things are under control by June, and the authorities have built enough capacity to treat the serious cases that will inevitably arise, I want footy in June. Even if that means in empty stadiums.
Ironically I suspect if we are successful in slowing this virus and allowing our medical facilities to cope it's likely to mean we may stay in lockdown longer

We are basically trying to achieve 2 things. First control cases so our ICUs and ventilators do't get over run and we have to make terrible decisions about withholding care for some. Second reduce number of infections until vaccination or effective treatments become available ( as an aside dont get too confident about the treatment options. We havent really found anything for any number of viruses ever, including seasonal flu, that are killers despite extensive trying).

If we are successful it will mean few in the "herd" are immunised and we still basically have a nude population which will remain susceptible if this virus doesn't exhibit some seasonal characteristic and al la Trump magically disappear. Dont hold your breath for that one. So as long as most of us remain susceptible and a vaccine isnt here we will take measures to make sure the virus only drifts slowly over the population.
 

Jen2310

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 21, 2018
7,263
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Melbourne
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Yeah its misleading, the headline. I think they survive. Just. The broadcast rights for 2021 will help. Also Jon Haines said they will have their jobs waiting them when footy resumes if they want them.
GWS are doing the same thing


Everyone are dealing with terrible things.
 

The Dawes

Premiership Player
Feb 19, 2008
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interesting to look at the stats but I must say these figures at present don't seem to be standing up to scrutiny as fair as Australian cases are concerned - at least to this point - may well change of course.
As far as I'm aware of the first 1,000 confirmed cases, less than 20 people have had to admitted to an ICU and all the fatalities so far have been of people aged at least 75. That gives us a less than 1% fatality rate and a very, very low hospitalisation rate.
As I said, this may well change, but so far the real situation looks nowhere near as dire as these figures suggest
 

Jen2310

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 21, 2018
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Maybe read this Dave:

Up to 80 per cent of staff at the AFL and clubs have been stood down without pay as the league imposes austerity measures in the wake of the suspension and possible abandonment of the season due to the coronavirus.

The AFL has ordered that only a skeleton staff is to remain at the league headquarters and at every club, with between 70 and 80 per cent of staff immediately stood down without pay. Those who remain on the skeleton staff will have their pay cut.

The precise number of staff being stood down at clubs and how the clubs manage those staff may vary.

The league has effectively taken control of all clubs and ordered the measures as they renegotiate with banks to secure lines of credit to keep the competition operating.

Clubs have been told they will be given 30 days' notice of a return to competition. Meaning a return from May 31 would require clubs to be informed by the end of April. It is highly unlikely that return to work date will be met and, if play does resume at all this season, it will not be for many months yet.
The AFL is in meetings with the AFL Players' Association about what it means for player contracts.
Players are paid after work is completed, and are certain to be paid up until March 27, the end of the current pay period. What happens after that is uncertain, given no games will be played.
Players were left confused on Monday about their future.
Sources said Brisbane Lions players had been stood down without pay for now, although the club said this was not the case.

Gold Coast and GWS had already told staff they were being cut back to the bare minimum and further meetings were being held at all clubs throughout the day.
The moves come after the league's unprecedented decision to shut down because of the coronavirus crisis.
 

Gone Critical

Moderator
Mar 11, 2007
11,859
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Abbotsford
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interesting to look at the stats but I must say these figures at present don't seem to be standing up to scrutiny as fair as Australian cases are concerned - at least to this point - may well change of course.
As far as I'm aware of the first 1,000 confirmed cases, less than 20 people have had to admitted to an ICU and all the fatalities so far have been of people aged at least 75. That gives us a less than 1% fatality rate and a very, very low hospitalisation rate.
As I said, this may well change, but so far the real situation looks nowhere near as dire as these figures suggest
Agree but its early days. With us being behind a lot of countries we may have learned our lesson and locked away the elderly and vulnerable already. Be interesting to see the age profile of the positive cases in Australia. Hopefully we can keep the virus away from those vulnerable groups as long as possible. That will require us to remain vigilent until more is understood.

P.S Just spotted this article which says 13 people in critical condition around the coutry in ICU beds and the age distribution in Australia suggests few infections in the over 70's which accounts for the low death rate. All deaths so far are in the elderly.

 
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