JB1975
Brownlow Medallist
Sydney cases are currently way lower than they were modelled to be, as modellers underestimated the efficacy of the vaccine in stopping spread. I don't think new modelling of Vic based on nsw vaccine efficacy will look as bad as earlier opening predictions.
The good thing for NSW and Vic is that they're re-opening whilst vaccine efficacy is at it's peak due to such recent jabbing. December isn't looking as bad as modelled. The real issues may come next winter when efficacy has dropped, unless boosters are in play by then.
It's fine for people to predict that it won't be 'as bad' as modelled, and I've got a spectrum of pessimistic-optimistic possibilities in my head as well.
But anyone who doesn't think that opening up will come at a serious cost --to others, if not ourselves-- is absolutely kidding themselves.