Racing Cox Plate 2020 discussion .

[FallingLiefs]

Not saying FI is hopeless at 2000m just that at it evens the two up compared to 1600m. More about Avi being better at 2000m than 1600m.

I don't like your chances of Paris admitting he got those 2 wrong even if you weren't on the ignore list.

Meanwhile HeathComeBack any other changes from OP other than RC who looks like he could elevate this back to standard? Surely poor Kolding now a worthy acceptor over the Seymour cup. So close to Alligator Blood I feel.

 

[HeathySure]

I don't like your chances of Paris admitting he got those 2 wrong even if you weren't on the ignore list.

Meanwhile HeathComeBack any other changes from OP other than RC who looks like he could elevate this back to standard? Surely poor Kolding now a worthy acceptor over the Seymour cup. So close to Alligator Blood I feel.

Kolding is the same horse he always was, its just a terrible bunch of older horses. I dont know the overseas horses but they dont have to be much good to be very competitive. Humidor is going well and almost knocked over Winx in the same race so i wouldnt dismiss him. Can see a 3yo like Glenfiddich doing a Shamus Award. If Probabeel runs she is straight to 2nd fave of the Aussies for me. And on that basis Funstar would probably finish top 5.

 

[54Dogs]

Yep Prob should really go there and a clear 2nd pick of the locals.

 

[AvantGardener]

I don't like your chances of Paris admitting he got those 2 wrong even if you weren't on the ignore list.

Meanwhile HeathComeBack any other changes from OP other than RC who looks like he could elevate this back to standard? Surely poor Kolding now a worthy acceptor over the Seymour cup. So close to Alligator Blood I feel.

Won't admit he was wrong but he's been tipping FI and VE! The two key reasons I'm in the ignore list!

 

[Cuzz09]

Why not Humidor

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[FallingLiefs]

Yep Prob should really go there and a clear 2nd pick of the locals.

I really must have missed something for this to be the case. I just don't see it.

 

[iluvparis]

Kolding is the same horse he always was, its just a terrible bunch of older horses. I dont know the overseas horses but they dont have to be much good to be very competitive. Humidor is going well and almost knocked over Winx in the same race so i wouldnt dismiss him. Can see a 3yo like Glenfiddich doing a Shamus Award. If Probabeel runs she is straight to 2nd fave of the Aussies for me. And on that basis Funstar would probably finish top 5.

Yup The Russian plus whatever random 3yo turns up are the only locals you could consider backing against the raiders.

 

[iluvparis]

Yep Prob should really go there and a clear 2nd pick of the locals.

Says a lot really - a smart punter once told me that the Epsom winner should always start $15 in the Cox Plate

 

[iluvparis]

Why not Humidor

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If you have to ask I would not bet in the race

 

[Cuzz09]

If you have to ask I would not bet in the race

It has been running just as well if not better than some of the others in that field. why not him?

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[iluvparis]

It has been running just as well if not better than some of the others in that field. why not him?

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How is he turning the form around against RC for a start?

I think he will be the only runner out of the Feehan to line up.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I really must have missed something for this to be the case. I just don't see it.

I should probably put reasoning up for this as I just don't see 1L win at 52.5kg in an epsom being enough. You really want to be seperating further from Yulong prince at 54kg than 1.4L and then quite compact field behind them. This same board didn't want the Shark in last year despite Giving Kolding 4 and beating 3rd by 3+L circling the field.

Just straight up weight/margins comparisons year to year

1L 0kg Funstar
1.2L 2.5kg Riodini
1.4L -1.5kg Yulong Prince
Median Horse beat 2.4L

-0.1L 4kg Kolding
3.1L 4.5kg Star of the Seas
3.5 2.5kg Gem Song
Median Horse beat 5.0L

Needs to improve to get to WFA. (possible)

 

[Jugada]

Humidor cannot beat home the Camel but even outside of him the raiders and 3yos that all turn up are better horses than what he has been crossing the line with

 

[iluvparis]

And then there were 28

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2020-rv/the-sport/files/2020-10-06-cox-plate-3rd-acceptances.pdf?la=en

3yos
Amish Boy
Glenfiddich
Jet Propulsion (WTF)
King's Legacy
Love Top
Tagaloa

 

[54Dogs]

27 with Glen gone

 

[iluvparis]

27 with Glen gone

Are you telling me all in Jet Propulsion? Has he done a deal with Maher?

 

[54Dogs]

Are you telling me all in Jet Propulsion? Has he done a deal with Maher?

It's no Harbour Views or SSB that's for sure

 

[iluvparis]

Armory and Sir Drag are still $10 on sports. You are utterly mad if you don’t have something on both at that price

 

[Jugada]

Throw in Aspetar and have the tri a dozen times. Probably a good idea taking a F4 with field for 4th too in case other punters cotton on to the winning strategy

 

[iluvparis]

Throw in Aspetar and have the tri a dozen times. Probably a good idea taking a F4 with field for 4th too in case other punters cotton on to the winning strategy

Nope - this is the key - leave Aspetar out of everything - it will be super over backed as a raider but is not good enough to place. That's where the main value is going to be.

 

[Jugada]

Nope - this is the key - leave Aspetar out of everything - it will be super over backed as a raider but is not good enough to place. That's where the main value is going to be.

He's =5th fav. If he doesn't outperform that I'll give it away

 

[iluvparis]

He's =5th fav. If he doesn't outperform that I'll give it away

Him underperforming that position is my most confident international play of the spring. There's a reason he is 5th fave even though ours are trash

 

[Jugada]

Him underperforming that position is my most confident international play of the spring. There's a reason he is 5th fave even though ours are trash

So what's the reason Sir D and Armory are 3rd and 4th fav?

He is 5th fav because locals c ant swallow just how garbage our horses are at the moment

 

[iluvparis]

So what's the reason Sir D and Armory are 3rd and 4th fav?

He is 5th fav because locals c ant swallow just how garbage our horses are at the moment

Yes but I've already said I think they are miss priced. I'd have it $5 the field Arm, Sir D, RC and $7.50 AQ

I expect Aspetar to run about as well as Danceteria last year who was basically top 5 in betting until race day when she was completely out the gate.

 

[iluvparis]

Boss gets the ride on SIR DRAGONET after Bowman's suspension