Cox Plate True Odds

[starz]

Fantastic value for the weight for age championship of Australasia.

The Turnbull stakes form is misleading and I didn't buy it.
I thought the form in this race would not hold up, most people disagreed.
Devil Moon won with Scenic Shot almost running her down a neck away.
this form was proven false with Scenic Shot not firing a shot in the Caulfield cup finishing well back.
The first 4 in the turnbull finished in the fast part of the track while the first horse over the line from the slow zone was Zipping, who finished fifth of 15 overtaking El Segundo who was 1 length in front on his outside.
El Segundo is rated a $6.50 chance
Marasco was in the middle part and just didn't run it out again and he is rated a $12 chance. Efficient was alongside Zipping and well beaten by his faster stronger stablemate and this was always going to be the case.

So if El Segundo is 6.50, Efficient is $11, Marasco is $12 what odds Zipping?
$5?? Try $35!!! it’s not a typo, no decimal point missing either.
Spot the value

......................True Odds.....Current Odds
Zipping ...............4.5................30
Miss finland..........5..................4.20
El Segundo...........5..................6
Haradasun............7..................6
--------------------------------
Marasco..............12...............12
Devil Moon...........18...............6
Divine Madonna....22...............25
--------------------------------
LOTM..................30..............31
Efficient...............30..............12
Eskimo queen.......40.............14
Niconero..............100.............50
Wonderful World....100............50

P/L +680 units
Selections
Zipping win 20 @ 30+
Zipping place 50 @ 8+
Miss finland 30 @ 4+
El Segundo 20 @ 6.5+

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, back it.
And back it with confidence.

 

[sethlad]

I will admit it was a great effort to finish 5th of 17 in a field of 15
Here we go again

seth

 

[the_fresh]

starz you've been talking up Zipping for over a year now, he is nothing more than a handicapper and around Moonee Valley at WFA in our best race he has no chance, 30-1 is unders.

 

[go fullta]

delete thread

 

[starz]

Dude, you have no idea... Will you give me 22's on Devil Moon?

I will make sure she doesn't go under $7, i'm sure you'll take it.

 

[starz]

starz you've been talking up Zipping for over a year now, he is nothing more than a handicapper and around Moonee Valley at WFA in our best race he has no chance, 30-1 is unders.

Yes $30+ lay is free money for you,
Make sure you take on the place at $8+ heavily too, that's even better surely.
Fantastic lay for you well done, no anxious moments either

 

[go fullta]

specialstarz is entered for the werribee cup with a rating of 70!! its sounds like you, no chance at all!!

with devil moon and efficent at those prices, you will go broke real quick, if you held our bets

 

[starz]

specialstarz is entered for the werribee cup with a rating of 70!! its sounds like you, no chance at all!!

with devil moon and efficent at those prices, you will go broke real quick, if you held our bets

If Efficient beats Zipping home i really will leave the forum forever.
Efficient is $10 and Zipping is $34 so i've taken the $4 h2h outsider.

Won't happen.

 

[sethlad]

If Efficient beats Zipping home i really will leave the forum forever.
Efficient is $10 and Zipping is $34 so i've taken the $4 h2h outsider.

Won't happen.

Weve heard it all before Starz......how long was it last time...2 weeks?
You lie like a rug


seth

 

[starz]

Are you willing to back up your calls with action.
Let’s make this fair. Ok I know you'll never leave, so if zipping beats home a horse of your choice you're banned from posting here for 2 months?

" Barely a WFA B Grader" "Couldn't win with a lap headstart"
Or were you only just saying that ?

 

[Ron]

Go Efficient.

 

[sethlad]

Sure thing.........how can I trust you though Starz?
With your record here for lying,editing & posting under different ID's.
You obviously have no concept of whats "fair"?

When you declare your multiple ID's,then we may have a chance at a "fair" comp.
Until then,whats the point?

seth

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

Starz, I still give Zipping a chance in the Melb Cup but not this week. Just too quick for him.

Been on the Devil Moon wagon all week but starting to warm to Haradasun from the good draw. D Oliver has been riding like a 10 ride apprentice lately (actually he is making mistakes in races that a boy having his first ride wouldn't make) and I just have a feeling that this might be the race he turns the corner as he's too good not to

Reckon the horse in the market with no chance is Marasco, I backed him early in the spring but legless lately and have just about forgotten that I have backed him - thats how much of a chance i give him

Won't be betting much though

 

[starz]

Sure thing.........how can I trust you though Starz?
With your record here for lying,editing & posting under different ID's.
You obviously have no concept of whats "fair"?

When you declare your multiple ID's,then we may have a chance at a "fair" comp.
Until then,whats the point?

seth

You don't really want to do this do you?
Trying to divert the topic/telling porky pies.

Choice is yours, pick a horse, any horse..

 

[sethlad]

You just get a good nights sleep.
You'll need it for dreaming up your next excuse for why Zipping was a certainty beaten.....again

seth

 

[starz]

Thought so.

It's ok to make big statements but when someone called you out and you had the chance to back it up with action you ran away, despite the 'odds' being heavily in your favour.

I guess people will see you as a bit of a coward now, night.

 

[sethlad]

You know I only care what you think Starz......

You're such a trustworth,level headed & genuine poster who keeps his promises.
Much loved & respected here & equally loved on the Cricket forum for your sensible opinions.
As for your tipping,apart from the last 2 that ran last & 2nd last & marking a $16 chance @ $2.8.....Im sure they had excuses
Most of yours do....one in particular.

Money talks Starzy...betfair is calling

seth

 

[starz]

Go Efficient.

Ok Ron you're on.

Sethlad obviously isn't up to the Challenge yet, he needs some time to make his very best selection, i'll give him and Anyone else prepeared to back up their talk with action you've got until 8pm tomorrow night to name your best horse. Let's see it

The moderators can ban whoever loses, 2 months you, or permanent me.

 

[the_fresh]

Starz I think last year you showed us all with how much you know about racing.
You went on and on about how the Melbourne cup is the best race in Australia and wouldn't listen to anyone about the Cox Plate, clearly the best race in Australia or this part of the world.

You also went on about Maybe Better, Zipping and how they were the best horses in this country. how many races have they won between them in that 12 months?
Zipping is a handicapper, this is a lead up run to his target the Melbourne cup and he is going just ok.

You put too much into handicapping form, remember that a true test of class is Weight For Age and Zipping is not in the class of the best WFA horses in the country.
I know the people who owned his monther for a while, they bought her off Lloyd and bred 2 foals from her before selling her back, I would love for him to win, it'll mean more money for them in the breeding stakes, but I know racing and I know this horse is not up to it.
Name the last handicapper to win a Cox Plate.

Its a race won by the best WFA horses in the land, not handicappers getting lucky.

You'll blow your money if you back Zipping.

If you really believe he's up to the class then you must think about the track. He'll be last 800 from home, he must then get around the field on the outside, on a track he's not suited to and somehow make up 5 to 8 lengths up in 275m.

He is no hope and $30-1 is under, he should be close to $66-1

 

[Aussie Assault]

I'll actually agree with Starz on one thing. Zipping beating Efficient. Tassie said that he could confidently not back Marasco in this race, well for me its Efficient.

 

[starz]

You seem to know an awful lot for someone who joined in august.
If you don't think the Cox Plate was a target for Zipping then you know more than the trainer.

If he really should be 66/1 then you will surely put forward just one of the many horses that will certainly finish ahead of him and take up the easy challenge.

 

[the_fresh]

You seem to know an awful lot for someone who joined in august.
If you don't think the Cox Plate was a target for Zipping then you know more than the trainer.

If he really should be 66/1 then you will surely put forward just one of the many horses that will certainly finish ahead of him and take up the easy challenge.

go and look up Wavelength Starz.

I have worked for Rogerson, for about 5 years I think Old Bo (the stable dog) knew more than him. Lloyd trains this horse, if you knew anything about racing you would know this.

Want one? I'll give you 2 El Segundo & Lad of The Mannor will both finish in front of him.

 

[__Ron_]

I completely agree with Starz on everything except his price assesment of Zipping who is just a handicapper and nothing more. On top of that his racing style dictates that he'll always be running on suckering you in time and time again without winning.

I think Devil Moon should be around the 18.00 dollar price as well. He has to prove it that hes up to this level and that Turnball race as far as i'm concerned was a no race, i read nothing into it EXCEPT for the run of Marasco.

Marasco was shyt when Rubicent won having the perfect run and not firing then he got to the best part of the track in the Turnball after doing no work and didn't fire one shot.

The REAL prices based on skill

Marasco - 50/1
Devil Moon - 18/1
Efficient - 150/1
Harada - 12/1
Zipping - 20/1
El Segundo - 6/4
Miss Finland - 4/1
LATM - 16/1
Eskimo - 40/1
Magic Cape - 400/1
Divine Madonna - 16/1
Niconero - 16/1
Wonderful World - 16/1

 

[Tassie Bulldog]

Ron, whats the story with El Segundo @ 6/4. There hasn't been a split eyelash between him and Haradasun all spring and if anything Harada has performed better. When ES beat him at the valley it was one of those head bobbers that fooled everybody and has beaten ES home every other time this spring from memory.

They have to be about equal in the markets but I find it impossible to make a case for any one horse

For what its worth, my 100% market is

Haradasun $5.00
Miss Finland $5.00
El Segundo $6.00
Devil Moon $7.00
Eskimo Queen $21.00
Efficient $26.00
Divine Madonna $26.00
Lad Of The Manor $26.00
Wonderful World $26.00
Marasco $34.00
Zipping $34.00
Niconero $41.00
Magic Cape $201.00

Be shocked if one of the top 4 didn't win and probably will finish up backing Harada and Devil Moon as they appear the 2 that will start overs IMO

No doubt I will change my mind another 3 times prior to Saturday arvo though

 

[__Ron_]

Tassie,

Mooney Valley factor
2000m
Has a superior final burst
Set for this race

Having gone over this race multiple times. I'm very keen on El Segundo right now. I'm happy you put your market up, its nice to compare to see others opinions.