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iluvparis said:
'Races like this' - what sample are you drawing from where I have 'missed the point'
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Form is interchangeable. LG is dominant horse with big ???? not seen at track, FU and hard to price. If right, these horses are generally plunge horses or blow a gale and the market generally gets it right there. MJ is known quantity with upside these sort of questions are in nearly every race these are generally firmers if the fave is no good or they can drift if they've been deemed overrated The quality of the horses in the race doesn't affect too much looking at markets.

big G1's generally don't fluctuate in odds so i'm not for one instant saying this is a chance of happening. I would be as i said previously, surprised if she starts longer than $4.60.
 
FallingLiefs said:
Form is interchangeable. LG is dominant horse with big ???? not seen at track, FU and hard to price. If right, these horses are generally plunge horses or blow a gale and the market generally gets it right there. MJ is known quantity with upside these sort of questions are in nearly every race these are generally firmers if the fave is no good or they can drift if they've been deemed overrated The quality of the horses in the race doesn't affect too much looking at markets.
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But MJ was a quality horse with upside last start in a race where the fave was no good and she drifted?
 
iluvparis said:
But MJ was a quality horse with upside last start in a race where the fave was no good and she drifted?
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Well a bit of this then comes into form. She was toxic price and said so at the time. Hugely poor off against the weight scale. Then there was change of tactics was ridden negatively.

I think $3.90 was a compliment and stronger than the previous starts.
 

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FallingLiefs said:
Well a bit of this then comes into form. She was toxic price and said so at the time. Hugely poor off against the weight scale. Then there was change of tactics was ridden negatively.

I think $3.90 was a compliment and stronger than the previous starts.
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Lol god you tie yourselves up in knots trying to be contrarian - she was a toxic price but $3.90 meant she was actually well supported?!?! You what m8!?!
 
AvantGardener said:
Change of tactics ridden back
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Irrelevant - we are SP profiling here mate - otherwise you have to take into effect here this is the toughest race she has ever faced and was average her last two and all this made up BS goes out the window
 
This is just on observations. Not exactly declaring anything or saying this horse will win or will definitely firm, or this horse is going big. You do not need to get offended because there are in-efficiencies at SP just because they start that price doesn't mean they are that chance of winning. There's picking winners and then there is getting the right price. You have to spend a bit of time predicting what the market could and will do because it hugely affects bottom line. Only offering how i see what could happen.
 
FallingLiefs said:
I think i would call Avilius a $7 chance on a soft 6. Just don't think it will get that low. If somehow got into the heavy would even be taking the $7
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Think its a good chance to place, not sure it is capable of a win though unless it absolutely pisses down which won't happen.
 

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iluvparis said:
Lol
He will kill her
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sbe is the only Australian who can win. Do i have to post Avilius run last year again? he is not a true WFA horse. he has no early speed, needs to be ridden back and to top it off he has been found out in Victoria time and time again against the ordinary old farts . He has zero chance and a legit 33s chance to run a place unless its very wet.
 
HeathComeBack said:
sbe is the only Australian who can win. Do i have to post Avilius run last year again? he is not a true WFA horse. he has no early speed, needs to be ridden back and to top it off he has been found out in Victoria time and time again against the ordinary old farts . He has zero chance and a legit 33s chance to run a place unless its very wet.
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I lold. Do I need to post a replay of the two washed up hacks/ordinary old farts that have beaten MJ at her last two starts? One of which Avilius flogged this prep already.
 

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This looks the perfect race to for my (stolen) patented ABC F4 system - especially with so many tips around already for horses $15+. Remember you take:

A - 2 horses
B - 3 more horses
C - 3 further horses

and place these three bets

A/ABC/ABC/ABC
B/A/ABC/ABC
B/BC/A/ABC

To win:
- one of your A's must run top 3
- one of your A or B's must win
- you need the first 4 runners to be amongst your 8 selections
 
iluvparis said:
This looks the perfect race to for my (stolen) patented ABC F4 system - especially with so many tips around already for horses $15+. Remember you take:

A - 2 horses
B - 3 more horses
C - 3 further horses

and place these three bets

A/ABC/ABC/ABC
B/A/ABC/ABC
B/BC/A/ABC

To win:
- one of your A's must run top 3
- one of your A or B's must win
- you need the first 4 runners to be amongst your 8 selections
Click to expand...
What’s you second A group selection (I assume LG is one)
 
iluvparis said:
This looks the perfect race to for my (stolen) patented ABC F4 system - especially with so many tips around already for horses $15+. Remember you take:

A - 2 horses
B - 3 more horses
C - 3 further horses

and place these three bets

A/ABC/ABC/ABC
B/A/ABC/ABC
B/BC/A/ABC
Click to expand...

Not bad, mine would be this;

A- Lys / Magic wand
B - Homesman / Kluger / Shark
C - Avilius / Mystic journey / Verry Elleegant
 
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