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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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125 Timeform for LG
124 for CV which is same as Shamus Award's year who i suspect will follow very similar paths into retirement.
 

iluvparis

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Apr 1, 2005
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Don't mean to play devils advocate - but how can a horse that carries significantly more weight than another and beat it comprehensively only rate 1 pound higher? Are their ratings already WFA adjusted?

Even then 1 pound seems ludicrously close - looks like they have built in their usual 10 pound 3yo fapping bonus.
 

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mcnulty

Debutant
Sep 18, 2019
93
105
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Hawthorn
From what I understand, ratings aren’t adjusted for sex, but are for age. So LCs 125 is the rough equivalent of a 129 for a male horse. CVs 3yo weight allowance is built in to his 124. A five pound difference would seem about right. Does that make any sense.🤯
 

iluvparis

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 1, 2005
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From what I understand, ratings aren’t adjusted for sex, but are for age. So LCs 125 is the rough equivalent of a 129 for a male horse. CVs 3yo weight allowance is built in to his 124. A five pound difference would seem about right. Does that make any sense.🤯
Yeah - I figured that would have to be the case - i.e. if they met at set weights they wouldn't expect CV to get anywhere near LG. It probably explains why their 3yo ratings are always so high too
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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Yeah - I figured that would have to be the case - i.e. if they met at set weights they wouldn't expect CV to get anywhere near LG. It probably explains why their 3yo ratings are always so high too
They overrate weight slightly so 3yos when they add the allowance they end up much bigger than most people would have them. That’s how I see it anyway. Then giving CV 124 means he needs to improve 20lb with age which many spring 3yos don’t which is why people get caught out giving 3yos big ratings.
 

iluvparis

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They overrate weight slightly so 3yos when they add the allowance they end up much bigger than most people would have them. That’s how I see it anyway. Then giving CV 124 means he needs to improve 20lb with age which many spring 3yos don’t.
That means they overrate natural improvement not weight.
 

mcnulty

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Sep 18, 2019
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Anywa
That means they overrate natural improvement not weight.
Correct. A horse like All Too Hard was given a rating the same as Northerly. The chances that if ATH races on he would have been as good as that Northerly are approximately zero, IMO.

Sepoy was given a similar rating and the wheels were already falling off in the Autumn.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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Anywa

Correct. A horse like All Too Hard was given a rating the same as Northerly. The chances that if ATH races on he would have been as good as that Northerly are approximately zero, IMO.

Sepoy was given a similar rating and the wheels were already falling off in the Autumn.
This is the approximation of the WFA scale.

They are inferring that on their numbers ATH would have beaten northerly on that day with the day of WFA allowance.

It's mostly to do with the WFA scale being manipulated (correctly) over time to account for the best 2/3/4 yo at that time, History says the best spring 3yo will not improve the same as the average top autumn 4yo, who will likely improve from maidens in spring to G1's in autumn.

People tend to believe if a horse performs at WFA it has made it to the open age grade when in fact it has made it to the level where it has to improve equal to the WFA just to hold it's spot.
 

mcnulty

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Sep 18, 2019
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I think you could argue the WFA scale is a bit outdated, especially in Australia. We are increasingly breeding horses for juvenile riches so naturally they are tending to hit a peak earlier.

Once the allowance goes they struggle, and we are seeing our 4yos not going on with. Huge handful of salt with these 3yo ratings.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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I think you could argue the WFA scale is a bit outdated, especially in Australia. We are increasingly breeding horses for juvenile riches so naturally they are tending to hit a peak earlier.

Once the allowance goes they struggle, and we are seeing our 4yos not going on with. Huge handful of salt with these 3yo ratings.
I agree with this, Europe is having the same trouble and revised the scale a few years back where we have not done this in I don't know how long.
 

iluvparis

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This is the approximation of the WFA scale.

They are inferring that on their numbers ATH would have beaten northerly on that day with the day of WFA allowance.
Yes but CV and LG did clash on the day with the WFA allowance and she has only been viewed as being 1 pound superior? Seems unders
 

FallingLiefs

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Jan 30, 2013
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Yes but CV and LG did clash on the day with the WFA allowance and she has only been viewed as being 1 pound superior? Seems unders
Gut feel says they "may" be using the euro scale where CV would have carried 48.5-49.0kg which gives you 3lb ish.


But yes i agree, which is where weight for 1.5L to be 1lb is a real problem when they actually clash hence IMO overrated.
 

mcnulty

Debutant
Sep 18, 2019
93
105
AFL Club
Hawthorn
This is the approximation of the WFA scale.

They are inferring that on their numbers ATH would have beaten northerly on that day with the day of WFA allowance.

It's mostly to do with the WFA scale being manipulated (correctly) over time to account for the best 2/3/4 yo at that time, History says the best spring 3yo will not improve the same as the average top autumn 4yo, who will likely improve from maidens in spring to G1's in autumn.

People tend to believe if a horse performs at WFA it has made it to the open age grade when in fact it has made it to the level where it has to improve equal to the WFA just to hold it's spot.
Not exactly. They’re saying ATHs best performance at 3 was equivalent to Northerly’s best performance as an older horse. But otherwise I broadly agree.
 

AvantGardener

Club Legend
Suspended
Mar 13, 2016
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Don't mean to play devils advocate - but how can a horse that carries significantly more weight than another and beat it comprehensively only rate 1 pound higher? Are their ratings already WFA adjusted?

Even then 1 pound seems ludicrously close - looks like they have built in their usual 10 pound 3yo fapping bonus.
YYY wins Everest.
Biv better than YYY
Tips Exceedance to beat Biv

Is this the best 3yo crop ever?
 

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